Tuesday, March 26, 2013

MO' SNOW

6am  end of of Staymon

9am end of Staymon
11am - YAY for the warm ground and temps near 32 degrees!!!  
12 noon - doesn't look like any snow down on Mauney Cove Rd
(630a) 5.0" and counting at the end of Staymon and a balmy 21 degrees.  Chris Martin has already reported one truck going up and one truck going down without any trouble, and he said the road didn't seem slippery...light and fluffy snow.

This fluff machine stands to crank off and on throughout the day and night, with some flurries continuing into Wednesday morning.  The warning is still set to expire at 6pm.  I've seen official reports of up to 8" in other mountain locations, and unofficial amounts in the 10" range outside of Maggie Valley and north of Asheville.

11am UPDATE: I have not set foot on my driveway (only the pups have), and while I've got 5-6" piled on my deck, the driveway is clearing itself...a welcome sight.  That means the roads in general are in better shape than they were earlier.  FYI, somewhere near Soco Gap got 13" reported to the NWS.  

CLICK HERE TO GO TO SNOW REPORTS


Bob


Monday, March 25, 2013

So far so good...

Molly off her rocker....
I was pleased earlier to look at my driveway and see that it was totally clear thanks to the in-ground warmth.  Figured Apple Creek Road was fine and ran some errands before the pups mutinied.  It's excellent, at least for now.  Not even a trace on the ground around Lake J and in Waynesville, though snowing. If you want to read the storm particulars, you can read the prior post. 

The Winter Storm Warning is still in effect through 6p Tuesday, but the NWS has scaled back totals to a 3-6" range instead of a 5-8".  There is a significant amount of moisture upstream, and snowfall is expected to pick up a bit later today/tonight, tailing off through the day Tuesday.  I'm just thrilled conditions have remained favorable thus far, excepting my still-icy deck and stairs.

While I've had a high of only 30 and 2" total so far, some melting has and is occurring.  The low tonight should get down into the mid 20s, so I expect roads to whiten should the snow keep up and intensify.  Thankfully, temps slowly warm this week and back to much more comfortable levels by this weekend.

Bob

Sunday, March 24, 2013

WINTER STORM WARNING...ugh....

Batten down the hatches, be prepared for the worst, and hope for the best.  The problem with spring systems is that the parent air mass being pulled in is warmer, and warmer air holds more water.  The air being wrapped in from the north is very cold, so when the atmospheric sponge gets squeezed out, the amounts can be higher than in a cold dead of winter scenario.  Thus is our situation.

We were upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning effective from 2am Monday through 6pm Tuesday. This will be a protracted upslope flow from the W/NW from TN, so the high state ridgelines (Smokies, Max Patch, Roan Highlands, etc.) will bring home the bacon with 8-12".  I should add the warning is for ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500', our Moskos/blue roof house.  Below that elevation is a Winter Weather Advisory.

In the advisory, the National Weather Service (NWS) is calling for up to 4-6" down low. and 5-8" up high in the warning zone.  Hmmmmm...the models have been trending higher, and there is one good point and that is the recent rain and 'warmth' has melted all our snow, and today's high in the upper 40s for the most part has provided some heat for the ground and roads.  With that said...

Through the latest runs I look at, the NAM has put ACA in the 3-4" range, and the GFS in the 2-4" range.  The GFS has been easily the most accurate this year, but both have underdone the past two modest events.  That concerns me because the NWS has pretty good eyeballs on this storm, and where there is smoke, there is usually fire.

I don't expect much snow when I wake up, as the bulk of moisture doesn't get here until Monday afternoon and through the overnight, so be prepared for travel here to go down the dumpers as Monday wears on, continuing through all of Tuesday.

The one other issue is the strong winds that are forecast to be blowing in with all of this...enough to bring some weaker trees down and make for potential power outages.  Just FYI.

I'm back on the mountain, so will provide observations in the morning and beyond.  Feel free to do the same.  :-)

Bob

WINTER WEATHER LOOMETH....

Well, the models keep inching ACA totals upward a bit for an event that will start unfolding overnight tonight and go through Tuesday, thanks to a protracted upslope snow event and some very cold air.  Currently, we're under a Winter Storm Watch as I type here at work, which will either be upgraded to a Warning or downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory later today.  I'll be back in ACA this afternoon and will update then if necessary (NOTE: IT IS NECESSARY AND I WILL WAIT FOR THE AFTERNOON DATA TO PROCESS AND WILL POST A NEW ENTRY BY 8PM TONIGHT. PER THE NWS, IT'S HEFTIER...).

This is a big storm issue for places like the Smokies, Max Patch, Mt. Mitchell, etc., that stand to get 5-8" of snow.  Currently, the NAM is trending 3-4" for ACA and the GFS still 2-3" (the latter being the most accurate this year for ACA).

So, no major dumping, but plenty to potentially affect travel on our beloved mountain starting in the early morning.

No eminent warm up yet...even into next weekend I don't see us hitting the 50 degree mark.

Bob

Friday, March 22, 2013

Upcoming Weather

3-21-13  (click to enlarge)
No use wishing for temps close to average (high of 61 for Asheville right now)...chilly rain and wintry mixes are heading our way...and pretty much in two 'chances' for a snow/mix.  The good news is they don't look to amount to much.  

The first will be overnight tonight, more than likely toward daybreak, but even if some accumulates, rain takes over and it will not be a travel issue.  The second chance comes in overnight Sunday into Monday, and that, too, will have marginal temps for accumulating wet snow...but a slightly better chance than the first.

Both NAM and GFS put ACA in the 0-1" range" with 2" close by...both see a little more from Sam's Gap (north of Asheville) and points NE through the Roan Highlands.  The more accurate GFS this year had 3-4" for the Smokies, but has pulled back to 2"...it does not have ACA in anything other than very light stuff.

I won't be here to provide any observations, so feel free to add yours below.

Bob

Thursday, March 21, 2013

So Much For A Dusting....!

630am 
630am

1.2" and a lovely 14 degrees here at the end of Staymon this morning.  Happy Spring, y'all!  Ugh.  I can't yet see Apple Creek Road through the trees, but my driveway is not solid white.

Not done yet as Friday night is a bit of a wild card.  Critical temps may be a froghair too warm for trouble, but all it would take would be a 1 degree difference, most likely, and we'll get accumulating snow.  Very cold pattern is in place for a while.

Currently, the NAM is showing 1" and GFS is showing 2-3" for ACA.  I'll post an update Friday morning with any concerns/updates.

Bob

Monday, March 11, 2013

NEW FEATURE: BOARD MINUTES (REPEAT)

Lorraine Conard, current ACHA president, has asked me to post information from the board, which is a great idea.  As a reminder, this blog has no official affiliation with the board...I simply started it myself as one more means of getting important or useful information out concerning life in our little slice of paradise.  In that vein, any questions or comments you may have about a particular 'minutes' entry should be directed to Lorraine or other board member directly, not through this blog, please.  I'm just the piano player.

Because this will be retroactive to the minutes from the 2012 Annual Meeting, I will post this exact entry again as soon as I have finished putting in the (ordered) entries Lorraine sent me.  In order for you to find something you would like to read or reread, you can search for entry titles by going to the column to the RIGHT: all entries are in chronological order, and any right arrow > can be clicked on and it will expand the entries under that heading with a down arrow.  Clicking on that down arrow will correspondingly shorten the list and close that folder.  To go to that posting, of course, just click on the title.

I do my best to keep titles self explanatory and clear, so you shouldn't have any trouble finding what you are looking for.  I don't anticipate any issues posting the information, but if I run into a glitch (like the length of the annual meeting minutes), it may take me a while to solve the issue...or split it up into parts.  I posted in order starting  with the annual meeting minutes and then each of the subsequent board meeting minutes since then.

Bob

BOARD MINUTES: 12-4-12


12/4/12 Board Meeting

Present:  Lorraine Conard, Linda Hughes, Frank Moskos, Terry Rose, Linn Damon

Lorraine gave a report on homeowners who still have not paid their 2011/2012 assessment fees. Portia Anus and Robert Bracket have moved and thought that the fees had been paid by their attorney. A letter will be sent to them by secretary showing unpaid fees.

We still have $2300 in unpaid assessment fees. These homeowners include: Don Smith, Tom & Jean Holbrook, Dave Rich, Isaac Perliss, Jim & Marilyn Herbert and Van & Molly White. All were sent certified letters. Linn Damon will check to see what steps need to be completed to place a lien on these properties. It has been suggested by Attorney Canon to skip the lien phase. The fees to file in court are $96 filing fee plus $30 per person.

Two new homeowners have moved into Apple Creek Acres. Linda Hughes will check the county records to obtain their names so we can update the database.

Leaf removal has not been completed. Linda Hughes contacted contractor Boyd’s who said they forgot about it. Roads will be done by December 11, 2012.

Motion was made by Linda Hughes and seconded by Terry Rose to have upper Apple Creek Acres road surveyed. Motion passed with Lorraine Conard opposed to survey. Linda Hughes will call Heron Surveying to complete survey. It was also questioned whether this is an individual homeowner’s or the Association’s responsibility. Linda Hughes to check with Heron Surveying.

Salt is being delivered to Frank Moskos today by Ace hardware. Terry Rose to purchase the five damaged salt boxes.

Frank Moskos will complete the letter to homeowners regarding the 2013 assessment fees and will email it to other Board members. Frank Moskos and Lorraine Conard to get November bank balance and pay current bills to get the most current balance. Once that has been completed, numbers will be forwarded to Terry Rose to type up proposed budget to be sent out to homeowners with assessment fees.

Meeting adjourned to Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 1:00 pm at Linda Hughes home to assemble mailings.

Respectively submitted

Terry Rose

BOARD MINUTES: 10-20-12 (file read 10-30-13)


Minutes from 10-20-12 Board Meeting

Present:  Lorraine Conard, Linda Hughes, Frank Moskos, Terry Rose, and Linn Damon

A Motion was made and seconded accepting Linn Damon as the 5th Board Member.

Linda Hughes reported that Ace Hardware will deliver salt at no charge. She also checked with Boyd Tree Farm on costs to clear sides of road. $65 per hour at an estimate of 10 hours = $650. For leaf removal on sides of road: $30 per hour. No estimate on how long it would take. Custom paving gave an estimate to do both for $4500.

It was decided to stay with Clear Blue Paving for snow removal and salting.

Lorraine will check with Bill Cannon about the request by the other attorney for Fishers to not go to court regarding the road issue at top of Apple Creek. They wanted to settle out of court but a new letter to Mr. Cannon from said Attorney states differently. Lorraine will call the people who own property in question at top of mountain to see if they are aware of problem. Motion was made by Linn Damon and seconded by Frank Moskos to have a survey completed on the area in question.

It was discussed on possibly getting another attorney to represent our Homeowners Association. Terry will send out and email to the Newcomers Club to see if anyone can recommend someone.

The following is the draft budget for 2013:

$  3200
Culvert repair on Staymon
320
Ice Melt for Boxes (40 bags)
2000
Legal Fees
7000
Snow Removal/Salting
30
Bank Fee’s
650
Clearing sides of road
300
Leaf removal from side of road
200
Stamps
3000
Grating side roads
50
Office supplies
100
Certified letters Postage
???
Officer Reimbursement
4000
Gravel
6000
pavement repair
$26,850
Sub total

The following is the draft budget for the remainder of 2012:

$ 3000
Snow Removal/Salting
500
Pothole repair
3200
Culvert repair on Split Rail
300
Leaf removal
320
Salt
650
Legal fees
650
Survey
$ 8720

BOARD MINUTES: 10-9-12


Board Meeting Minutes

10/9/12

Present at meeting:  Lorraine Conard, Linda Hughes, Frank Moskos, Terry Rose

Estimates for repair of Pot hole: $500 by WNC Paving. Lorraine called WNC during meeting and Caleb said he would fix it ASAP. (Pothole was fixed on 10/26/12)

Attorney fees were discussed. They are higher this year due to the number of past due assessments and the issue of the road replacement at the top of the mountain. Check was sent to Bill Canon for $616.35. Previous balance was $472.35. Mr. Canon charges $240 per hour.

Linn Damon has not responded as of this meeting date whether she is accepting a seat on the Board. Discussion on who else could be the 5th board member-Keith Patton, Irene Jackson, Tom McCabe.

Lorraine Conard composed a letter to Jan Woodlief thanking her for her contributions to the Board.

A discussion about lien costs. To help cut expenses, Lorraine Conard will make phone calls to those delinquent in making their 2012 assessment fees. If this doesn’t work, matters could be taken to Small Claims Court. A deadline of November 13th was given for all 2012 assessments to be paid. If not, then matters will go to Small Claims Court.

Quotes on upper Apple Creek Road were to be sent to Bill Canon by Lorraine Conard. Motion was made and seconded to have a survey of property done before work begins. Lorraine Conard to hire surveyor.

Linda Hughes checked condition of salt boxes from Staymon Road down to bottom. Six boxes: 5 need two bags of salt. Terry Rose checked from Staymon Road to top. Six boxes: All need 1-2 bags of salt. 5 need new lids.

Future discussion of changes to bylaws needs to be held due to the outdated and unclear wording.

Budget:  The following is a draft of the 2012-2013 budget

Current Bank Balance:  $11,688 as of 9/30/12

$3200   Culvert repair

500    Pothole repair
320    Ice Melt for boxes
$2000   Legal Fees
TBD      Snow plowing and salt fees.  Clear Blue Spa said it would be $150 (approximate) for each
plowing and $300 for salting.  Plowing is based on number of inches of snow on road.
$   30    Bank Fees
TBD      Officer Reimbursement
TBD      Cleaning sides of road and ditches before winter (Linda Hughes to get quotes)

BOARD MINUTES: 9-18-13


Board Meeting Minutes

9/18/12


It was discussed who should replace Jan Woodlief who resigned from the Board. Candidates were: Linn Damon or Irene Jackson. Lorraine Conard to call Linn Damon first to offer position. If turned down, then Lorraine to call Irene Jackson.

Estimates are needed for replacement of pavement on upper Apple Creek, pot hole near Dave Rich’s home, paving costs on 1/6th of the road, and repair of culverts on Split Rail and Staymon. Lorriane Conard to check with other contactors for estimates. Terry Rose will contact WNC Paving for estimate.

Lorraine Conard to check with Bill Canon on next step for homeowners who have not yet paid their 2012 homeowners assessments.

Linda Hughes to check into “mailchimp.com” to see how we can go about sending emails of minutes and financial documents.

As of 8/31/11 the beginning balance was $10,809. Deposits to date are $1500.00 and withdrawls are $620. Unpaid 2012 assessments are unknown at this time and Frank Moskos to get information from previous treasurer.

Meeting was adjourned until 10/9/12 at 12:30.

Sunday, March 10, 2013

BOARD MINUTES: 9/5/13

Minutes Sept. 5

Board was appointed:
 
Lorraine Conard – President
Linda Hughes - VP
Frank Moskos – Treasurer
Terry Rose – Secretary
Jan Woodlief -
 
Some items that we discussed:  Jan to turn over the judgment decision (regarding Upper road removal), the judgment from the White matter in 1992 and other legal matters to Lorraine Conard.  Jan and Sharon to give the new board the list of unpaid assessments.  Lorraine and Frank will go to bank to sign new signature cards.
 
Items to be discusses at next meeting:
 
Legal updates
Road Maintenance Budget – 2013
Snow Removal/Salting – when and how much?
Unpaid assessments – possible liens
New assessment fees
 
Next meeting is scheduled for September 18th at 2pm at Terry Rose’s resident – 1624 Apple Creek Road.

2012 ANNUAL MEETING: MINUTES


ANNUAL MEETING
APPLE CREEK HOMEOWNERS ASSOCIATION
AUGUST 16, 2012

Call to Order
A quorum was established; present were 29 homeowners and a total of 91 proxies.  President Jan Woodlief called the meeting to order at 6:45 pm.  Tony Connicelli was then voted on to chair the meeting.
The minutes from last year’s meeting were read. Jeanne Holbrook contested several issues:

1    1)      In the Treasurer’s report, she wanted to add in the $4499 surplus amount listed on a Dec. 2010 document.
2    2)      She wanted clarification that the issue of any board ‘adoption’ of BST versus paving was or was not voted on and adopted; it was not officially adopted as board policy.

3    3)      Under the heading at the top of page 2 of the 2010 annual meeting (“…and additional information from the Board”): Under ‘new business’, she wanted the following items to be moved to “Addendum” status:
a)      “At our annual meeting (2010) the question was raised regarding rules which regulate the width of roads when new houses are built.  Bill Cannon, ACAHA attorney, addressed the question by using the word ‘reasonable’ as the best criteria.  This includes road expense, amount of travel on the road, as well as the slope of the mountain.  Bill pointed out in most subdivisions, roads tend to get narrower toward the top.”
b)      “At the annual meeting (2010) the statement was made that Staymon Road had been paved.  The truth is, one curve was paved, in order to protect the road and ensure its safety and passage.  It was also stated our President (John Stoeckel) had violated the ‘right of way’ by building a stairway on his property.  The distance between the stairway and the road has been measured and there is no infringement of the ‘right of way’. (The ‘right of way’ is measured 15 feet from the middle of the road.  There are obvious infractions to the 15 foot rule throughout the neighborhood.)
c)       The Board would ask membership to inquire to the Board in writing, via the President, on any and all concerns.  Each question will be given a response after Board consideration.  Most Board members are ‘working stiffs’ and the above procedure allows business to be conducted in a timely manner.

Committee Reports
Treasurer’s Report was presented by Sharon Gallimore.  As of August 15 the account balance was $10, 390.28.  The 2012 budget was presented on a screen, as was an itemized expenditure sheet.  Petty Cash fund had a balance of $78.51 collected through past years’ beautification projects.  Bob Child thanked Judy and Irene for their pro bono assistance in keeping our entrance area in beautiful shape.
Jeanne Holbrook raised the question whether or not the surplus balance was subtracted or added to assessment fees.  Tony Connicelli then added on budgets and future assessments.  Doyle Love clarified the balance was carried over correctly and fairly.  Jeanne Holbrook then disputed ‘assessments’ and changed notation in budget sheets between Dec. 1 2010 and Jan. 25, 2011.  She said the $37,800 budget number should be reduced by the surplus balances.  Myriad verbal exchanges between present homeowners ensued on this and associated topics.  Jeanne Holbrook told the board to seriously consider not putting a lien on delinquent payers.

Treasurer’s report was eventually moved and seconded for acceptance.

President’s Report was presented by Jan Woodlief, interim president starting in late January 2011.  She noted the thankless nature of being on Apple Creek’s Board, due to dissension among homeowners. The overwhelming portion of dues goes to paving, and more discussion ensued over the two paving companies that have done work over the years in ACA, the pros and cons of each, etc.  She explained why she went for the higher estimate on the paving at the top of the mountain as that company was going to do more (literal) groundwork to ensure a longer lasting surface.

She then suggested that the Board be limited to 5 members, which was moved on and accepted.
Information was shared about the gate at the top of the mountain, subsequently removed, and the road bed just past the gate purposefully torn up by Jack (and Betty) Fisher (of Eagle Ridge), cutting off access to an Apple Creek lot.

Discussion arose about the definition of road ‘maintenance’;  a motion was made and voted on that salting and plowing are considered part of road maintenance in Apple Creek.  23 of 28 voted in favor of that designation (one ACA homeowner had to leave early).  There was further discussion on right of way issues as well as tree removal issues.  Jeanne Holbrook wanted a ‘record of statement’ stating the $1500 tree removal (at the ‘mirror’ curve) was wrong, bad judgment and should not have occurred.  Tony Connicelli once again said the past is past, and that we needed to move forward.

Norman Jacobs brought back up the topic of surplus balances needing to be refunded to homeowners.  Ensuing discussion about the budget, assessments, and handling of data/projections took place…as well as other items that got off topic.

President’s Report was eventually moved, seconded, and approved.

Nominations/Elections
The board presented a list of five names from the Nominating Committee.  Four nominations for the Board were made from the floor:  Jeanne Holbrook, Keith Patton, Norman Jacobs, and David Rich.   Jeanne corrected the Nominating Committee that they can nominate only three people.  Linda Hughes and Lorrain Connard were taken off the list (which included Frank Moskos, Jan Woodlief, and Terry Rose), and were then nominated back on the candidate list.  Members then voted for 5 people.

Irene, Annie, and Owen counted the ballots separately and then compared to ensure accuracy.  The 5 Board members elected were Lorrain Connard (76 votes), Frank Moskos (72 votes), Jan Woodlief (62 votes), Terry Rose (60 votes), Linda Hughes (57 votes).  Other voting results: Keith Patton (42 votes), Jeanne Holbrook (39 votes), Norman Jacobs (35 votes), David Rich (35 votes).

Unfinished Business
Tony Connicelli asked those present which dues scenario did they want to vote on, $200/$250/$300.  Jeanne Holbrook motioned that no vote be taken, and it was seconded.  The vote was dropped – by laws state that the Board must develop fees.  Another motion was made to direct the Board to consider looking at a 5 or 7 or ? year plan, but that, too, was dropped.  Yet more discussion took place on changing the by laws to establish communication routes/procedures to hear concerns and grievances, but that was voted down.
The meeting was adjourned at 9:45pm.

Bob Child, interim Secretary

NEW FEATURE: BOARD MINUTES

Lorraine Conard, current ACHA president, has asked me to post information from the board, which is a great idea.  As a reminder, this blog has no official affiliation with the board...I simply started it myself as one more means of getting important or useful information out concerning life in our little slice of paradise.  In that vein, any questions or comments you may have about a particular 'minutes' entry should be directed to Lorraine or other board member directly, not through this blog, please.  I'm just the piano player.

Because this will be retroactive to the minutes from the 2012 Annual Meeting, I will post this exact entry again as soon as I have finished putting in the (ordered) entries Lorraine sent me.  In order for you to find something you would like to read or reread, you can search for entry titles by going to the column to the RIGHT: all entries are in chronological order, and any right arrow > can be clicked on and it will expand the entries under that heading with a down arrow.  Clicking on that down arrow will correspondingly shorten the list and close that folder.  To go to that posting, of course, just click on the title.

I do my best to keep titles self explanatory and clear, so you shouldn't have any trouble finding what you are looking for.  I don't anticipate any issues posting the information, but if I run into a glitch (like the length of the annual meeting minutes), it may take me a while to solve the issue...or split it up into parts.  I will post starting  with the annual meeting minutes and then post separately each of the board meeting minutes since then.

Bob

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

10AM UPDATE

10am 3-6-13

 Sun poking back out, and east TN radar dwindling quickly to only minimal snow showers left.  Now that I can see into the valley, doesn't look to be that much snow, some areas not that white.  Wind has been blowing the snow, but I topped out with 3" here at 3775'.

Call has been placed for plowing/salting, which will occur in a couple of hours (plower in Buncombe County as I type).

Feel free to ad road reports, news of plowing/salting, etc. below, or use email button to email me the info and I'll put it in.

Bob

PLENTY OF SNOW....

7am  3-6-13
 7am: Working on 3" here at the end of Staymon, and plenty still to come. 20 degrees and breezy, too. The National Weather Service has upped their storm totals to a widespread 5-8" in our area, with higher NW locations pressing 12".  Still scratching my head that my two bread and butter models never have shown that much snow (a first in years), but suffice it to say travel is a huge problem already this morning.  Reports of 4-5" already in Jackson County.

I'll post updates or interesting storm info as I get it.  Coffee is tasting mighty good this morning...

Bob

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

WINTER STORM WARNING Tonight

The National Weather Service has upgraded our watch to a warning this morning.  Rain changes over to snow tonight and the ol' snow shower machine keeps flowing in from TN through Wednesday.  The past few of these events just kept putting snow down, especially above the blue roof.  

The warning officially is for widespread 4-6", with 2-4" in valleys, and 6-9" on the highest ridges along the TN border.  Contrast that with a 'first' that I've seen in the 4 years or so I've been keeping this blog...

My two graphical models are non-NWS products...the data going into the algorithms is, the NAM and GFS data sets, but the graphic was created by someone in the private sector.  The GFS has performed very well this winter, and the NAM far less so unless it agreed with the GFS.  For this incoming event, the two have agreed and remained consistent through the model runs every 6 hours:  just 2" for ACA. (1245pm update: the GFS has scaled back even more for ACA to just 1", NAM still 2-3"...this morning's run data)

First time I've had both models remain limited/ho-hum, with NWS forecasting for significantly more snow.  As the old saying goes, prepare for the worst and hope for the best...but I'm very curious to see what the final tally will be.  Heck, even 1" of snow messes up our roads, but 5" would be a bigger problem.  Too, no sense plowing/treating 'til all is said and done Wednesday night, so Wednesday will be a good day to hunker down.

Once we go below 32 degrees just short of midnight tonight, we won't hit 32 again until Thursday afternoon, and maybe just barely.  However, by Friday, highs go well above freezing for days. And for good ol' FYI, the storm's bullseye is still showing up for NW Virginia/NE WV in the 2' range.  Yikes.

bob

Monday, March 4, 2013

WINTER STORM WATCH Hoisted

The National Weather Service has already given an official 'heads up' for what will turn into a Winter Storm Warning Tuesday (or possibly downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory...).  It's in effect from Tuesday evening through Wednesday, and the snow will be proceeded by a good bit of rain.

Early Tuesday morning, say between 3a and 7am, there could be some freezing rain here in ACA.  Then all rain should fall, resolving that potential issue.  Rain is forecast to transition to snow sometime around 10p Tuesday night, and continue with 'likely' chances through Wednesday.

Amounts:  the watch is for 7-9" at the higher ridge tops closer to the TN border, with 3-5" forecast for the valleys...that would interpolate to significant snow for all of ACA, with higher amounts toward the top, of course.  However...

However, at this moment, my two graphical models I track are both showing just 2-3"...but I'm guessing they need to 'catch up' to other data and models since the NWS has this 'high confidence' forecast (or not?).  No doubt this will be a nasty storm for the mid-Atlantic...the current bulls eye is in NW Virginia where I see totals in the 20-24" range.

Suffice it to say travel in ACA will deteriorate Tuesday night into Wednesday, and that roads most likely will not be treated until we're done with this event, which could be late Wednesday.  If the snow falls directly behind the rain, that will make for an icy bottom coat, making travel a bit more troublesome.

Good news a warm up starts almost immediately as we head into the weekend.

Updates will be posted as needed.

Bob

Sunday, March 3, 2013

DEJA VU...MO' SNOW

More shoveling fun!
Sunday 7am:   picked up another 2" here at the end of Staymon since supper last night, pressing 4" for the event.  Around 5" at top of ACA, and can see snow all through the valley below. A balmy 15 degrees, too...

Road has been plowed and salted and should be in good shape this morning.

Peeking ahead, weather-wise:
Tuesday AM, 5a-8a possible freezing rain, depending on temps.
After 12am into Wednesday AM...more accumulating snow.

I'll update as those timeframes get closer.  

bob

Saturday, March 2, 2013

7AM SATURDAY UPDATE

24 degrees...2" at the top of ACA, with word that the road was recently plowed and salted...I've got just under 2" here on Staymon.  Still some snow showers coming out of TN, but the heaviest snows are SW of us in the Smokies and Santeetlah areas.

bob

Friday, March 1, 2013

INCOMING SNOW...

We continue to be in a protracted upslope snow event...while we have collected only a heavy dusting so far, looks like our 'no travel issues' card has run its course.  A rather significant pool of moisture is in KY and TN and heading our way...the advisory runs through 6pm Saturday, calling for 2-4", mainly above 3500' (blue roof house).

Per the models I follow, the poorly-performing NAM (this season) is showing 1-2", but the GFS (most accurate this season), is pushing a tad higher than earlier, now putting ACA in the 3-5" range.

Upslope snow shower accumulations are nigh impossible to predict when you get our distance from the TN border.  We can get skunked, which suits us just fine...or we can get a dumping like we had in our last 4" snow (at my house) a week and a half ago.

Looks like better chances for accumulating snow will occur for a few hours this afternoon, but the best chances by far will be overnight into the Saturday morning hours.

Bob