NASTY STORMS ARRIVE AFTER 12 A.M.

CLICK TO ENLARGE

Strong storms and potentially damaging winds will be howling through ACA in a matter of hours.  As I type the line is in Nashville, TN, and stretching SW.  There have been many storm and tornado warnings from this line, so a heads up for later tonight.  Been a good while since we've had a large tree come down across a road in ACA, and it stands to reason the power has a good chance of going out.

Luckily it does blow on through and Friday ends up being a nice day...weekend, too.

Bob

HERE WE GO AGAIN - SNOW OVERNIGHT?

I am truly going out on a limb here as this is nowhere in the National Weather Service forecasts, be it in the mountains or in the central Piedmont.  At work late this morning, our in-house models started to create graphics that point toward a 'surprise' snow early Sunday morning...if you recall last Monday, that was a 1" or so forecast, and an unseen upper level low energized and gave ACA up to 5".  It wasn't in anyone's forecast.

That same energy I'm seeing clearly moving out of eastern IA heading directly towards us, and models here showing overnight snows for ACA once again.  More than that, that upper level low looks like it will hit the lee side of the Blue Ridge about 4am and rapidly create uplift for a strong burst of snow before and through sunrise in places like Charlotte and Greensboro.

In checking my NAM and GFS modeling, both have been holding steady for 1-2"...so all I know to do is say 'heads up' and don't be surprised if you wake up Sunday morning with more white stuff out there.  And if it doesn't come to pass, we'll count our blessings.

Bob

SAY IT AIN'T SO...SORRY, MO' SNOW

We're not catching too many breaks these days.  Screaming in tonight into tomorrow is a system coming at us from TN promising a bit of accumulating snow.  ACA is in a Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm tonight until 1p Saturday. After our week of heavy snow, I suppose a 2-4" snow sounds do-able, but that's the broad brush stroke in the advisory.  Too, while we avoided it in the big snow, gusty winds loom more in the picture this go 'round, with the strongest in place Saturday morning.

My NAM has been flipping between 2-4" and 3-5", with the GFS so far staying in the 1-2" range.  There are some pieces of good news in all of this.....

Here at the end of Staymon last night's temps have held right around 29 degrees. Highs today warm up into the 40s for more melting. Precipitation this evening will start as a rain snow mix, with a changeover to all snow around 10p or so.  Warm ground will help cut back on any initial accumulations, along with the preexisting salt ready to continue to help out for longer.

Unfortunately, forecast low is around 25 degrees, with another 'likely' burst in the pre-dawn hours, where we would most likely see any big accumulating being done.  All pretty much tails off by noon-ish, and warmer temps do move back in....but it is what it is, sorry to say.  Mo' snow.

Bob

SNOW UPDATE

8pm Wednesday on my deck

The morning after...  :-)

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MAIL DELIVERY NOTICE:  We have not had mail delivery in ACA since last Saturday.  Things look very positive for mail delivery to resume Friday, as roads here have been plowed and Apple Creek Road is in amazingly good shape after such a dumping.  Please clean around your mailbox so that Donna (or her substitute) can deliver your mail with the least amount of inconvenience.

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Here at the end of Staymon I got almost 8" of new snow, which fell on top of the 4.5" I got on Monday.  Suffice it to say we have a boatload of snow to deal with here for days.  The heaviest of snow is done with, but there could be additional light snow showers today, with the warning in effect until 6pm this evening.

Click HERE for an updated snow report from the NWS.

I'll be posting other information and pictures as I get 'em, so come back and refresh your browser for any updates.  There may be a chance for an additional inch + Friday night, but I'll address that further tomorrow morning.

Bob

WHAMMY TIME? WARNING IN EFFECT...

(updated at 8:20a with the latest GFS run, with snow now falling nicely outside)

One of those nights where once I woke up I figured I'd be productive.  The official 'word' from the National Weather Service is we are in a Winter Storm Warning until 6p Thursday.  6-10" are forecast for our area (an increase) with a trace of ice not out of the question.  Joy.  Winds may get breezy and the cautious word continues to warn of power outages later today into Thursday.

The early AM push of snow this morning is taking place just south of us...dry air/low dewpoints in place right now, but all signs point to an increasingly snowy day, especially this afternoon and tonight.

One model run does not a forecast make...but below are the 8pm runs from last night and the trend has gone back to bonkers, which is a nice way of saying any travel could become impossible for a while. Click on pics to enlarge; ACA is where the large black asterisk is.  The NAM is 10-14" and the GFS is 10-12" with 14" in the Plott Balsams.  The 1am NAM run is solidly 12-14" and the GFS matches it for 12-14". Classic case of preparing for the worst and hoping for the best...and hoping the amounts stay under 10" and the lower the better, but seeing both of these agreeing so much is enough of a red flag for me.

NAM 8PM TUESDAY RUN

GFS 8PM TUESDAY RUN

NAM 1AM WED RUN

GFS 1AM WED RUN

I took a walk down to the junction of Staymon and Apple Creek Road yesterday and figured I'd post a few pictures, mainly for those residents reading from afar...like in FL where a person that shall remain unnamed was gloating about temps in the 70's.  :-) Batten down the hatches, y'all...

Wintry fenceline along Apple Creek Road

Upper Staymon Road

Snow in the valley

Looking uphill at Apple Creek Road from Staymon

Looking downhill at Apple Creek Road from Staymon

Bob

48-HOUR WINTER STORM WARNING

ACA is under a Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6p Tuesday through 6p Thursday. Regional amounts of 4-8" expected, with concerns for power outages due to heavy wet nature of the snow, especially on Wednesday when breezier conditions move in.

This wintry scenario we're in is like a fruit cake, the gift that keeps on giving.  It's unusual for us to have a warning in effect for two full days, but that goes to show this isn't just one low pressure system at work, but several cutting across the Deep South.  Through Thursday supper we stand to possibly have two heavy periods of snow, with light snow possible any ol' time.

Timing: This morning, the bulk of the moisture is just south of us, though later today we get a push in from TN.  Looks like the first 'likely' period of snow hits before sunrise Wednesday for a few hours, then again closer to midnight Wednesday into Thursday.  Wednesday is clearly the trouble day for travel, with temps not expected to hit 32.  Thursday afternoon highs go above freezing and will help matters...a little, anyway.

Amounts:  I'll stick with my 6-8" at this point.  The NAM is not going bonkers for ACA like it had been, but along the SE edge of the Blue Ridge I won't be surprised to see 10-14" amounts when all is said and done.  The GFS has been holding in the 5-8" range run after run, too.  Now, that will be addition to the 4-5" we got here yesterday, so we're talking a solid dose of snow any way you look at it.

It does warm into the weekend, and one of our saving graces this time is the lack of polar air plunging in behind to cement us in.  Take your victories where you can get 'em...

I will be making a drive down this morning ~7:30am to run into town and will update with a road report in the comments section below, where you are also free to post any pertinent info you have.

MY DRIVEWAY BEFORE BEING MANPLOWED (link)

Bob

MAJOR WINTER EVENT UNFOLDING

MAISY IN 4.5" OF TODAY'S SNOW
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APPLE CREEK ROAD will be plowed and salted sometime this evening/tonight
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Do you want the good news or the bad news first?   The good news is that we are finally going to have a snow WITHOUT single digit temps coming in behind it, which means any salting done will actually start working right away.  The bad news is that this is a big a storm system as we've had in a few years, and some of the modeling I'll share below is reminiscent of that 18" snow we had Dec. 18 five or however many years ago that was.  But it's not just the mountains to be impacted but the I-85 corridor in SC and NE GA, as well.

TIMING:  Some snow is possible today (got 4.5"!!!), but the Winter Storm Watch (later to be a Warning) is for Tuesday through Wednesday midnight, a rather prolonged event (36+ hours).  With that in mind, it's conceivable that no plowing or treating of roads can be done until all is done, so be prepared to be sitting a while...or taking your chances but only in a 4WD vehicle.

AMOUNTS:  Always the elephant in the room.  Too, this is a southern storm, coming under us from the Gulf, not flying in from TN/KY. The current National Weather Service thinking is something around 3-4" for ACA, with the heavier accumulations down on the I-85 corridor.  I would love that. The basis for that limited amount is their thinking not that much moisture makes it this far north, plain and simple.  However, of the two models I follow, neither is that low, and it's disconcerting.  The GFS is more tame with 6-10" and the NAM is hot and heavy with 10-14" for us.  Also, where the TN border usually gets so much snow, that's not the case...we stand to get more snow than, say, Fines Creek on I-40 closer to TN.

So I am a bit bothered about this one and as yet just can't buy the 3-4" scenario.  6-8" seems more reasonable for this event, and there is something the NAM is seeing that is making it go bonkers.  Over the weekend, the NAM was 10-14" Saturday at 1p, and by Sunday morning was only 1-2"...since then it has been heating up and these last two runs below are right back to the pounding.  The GFS 1am run is also increasing amounts...click on pics to enlarge, and ACA is where you see a large asterisk west of Asheville:

NAM SUN 8p run

NAM MON 1a run

GFS SUN 8p run

GFS MON 1a run

Bob

QUICK WEATHER UPDATE

EARLIER THIS MORNING....1/8" OF SNOW

Tonight and tomorrow night, we could see anything from a heavy dusting like we had this morning, up to an inch of snow.  As I write this, the radar has some good echoes to the SW and closing in.  I should add one of my favored models goes with 2" for ACA with 3" close by...I'm just sayin'.  Currently we're not even under an advisory, though.  

Bob

A NOTE FROM OUR PRESIDENT/WEATHER

    For any ACA residents who are not aware: Salt/ Ice Melt may not be applied to gravel roads. This causes the road bed to collapse resulting in mud, rutting, and extremely costly repairs. Please share this information with your neighbors.

Thanks,

Keith Patton

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Heavier than expected snow showers last night....while only 1/8", it has covered my driveway.  I swept a test section and it's not icy underneath, so that's a good sign.
Very limited snow chances the next three nights, too.

Bob