MORE NUISANCE WEATHER AHEAD

As we know it takes very little ice, sleet, or snow to make travel on Apple Creek Road a problem above the blue roof house.  Luckily we've dodged storms with big amounts to deal with, instead, dealing with piddly stuff for the most part....but piddly can cause trouble in ACA.

Overnight, bands of snow should hit the TN border from the NW, with gusty winds building.  While the 1-3" concern is for areas within 10 miles of the border (not ACA), with strong NW winds they could blow in some lightly accumulating snow here.  % chances are limited, and we did have a 'warm' day, so not anticipating road troubles.  With that said, Friday will be a very cold day, with highs may not even reach 32 degrees in some locations, and Saturday morning lows in the low teens.  I'll be up early Friday morning and if need be will post more info.

Just like last weekend, another cold front will be coming in late on Sunday and bring precipitation that should start out as a rain-snow mix that night.  As the wee hours of morning wear on, temps should support mostly snow into Monday.  Amounts will be small just like our last mini-event, but we may well have school delays as a result, and a slippery Apple Creek Road.  I'll post a follow-up to this most likely Sunday afternoon.


Bob

CAUTION: ROAD CONCERNS

The light snow would not give up the ghost last night, bringing the snow to about 1/2" depth here at the end of Staymon.  Salt was put down on Apple Creek Road yesterday, but looking at my 14 degrees on the deck, the temperature is far below the effective working range of the salt.  Conditions will improve later today, but ASSUME APPLE CREEK ROAD IS SLICK AND DANGEROUS WHERE THERE IS SNOW THIS MORNING.

Linn mentioned last night the snow line was just above the blue roof/3500' level, so not sure how things are toward the entrance.  I salted my driveway 2 days ago but will be going out shortly to clear it one way or the other.  Please use utmost caution if you have to travel Apple Creek Road, or at least the upper half, this morning.

Bob

ROAD TO BE TREATED

Keith Patton made a couple of passes and found some snow covered and very icy, dangerous spots...he has ordered Apple Creek Road be treated which will obviously help matters, seeing as how we're in the ice box for a while, temperature-wise.  He advises those that don't have to travel to please wait until the road is treated.


Bob

WEATHER/ROAD UPDATE 1-27 7:45AM

We haven't even gotten 1/4" of snow, but it is 23 degrees at the end of Staymon and 25 degrees at the entrance...whatever fell has stuck, no melting.  Apple Creek Road is white all the way down, as is Mauney Cove.

Got a road report from Staymon Down...said no slipping  with AWD Subaru Outback, but anyone driving down needs to take it slow on the curves and steeper sections.  Not all vehicles handle the same, of course.  A couple of cars had already been out and about.

A school system delay was turned into a closure today as side roads are white, though not as icy as I found things yesterday morning.

Temps not going up much today, and eventually any snow showers should lessen as the afternoon progresses.  Goodly amounts falling right on the TN border peaks,. but nothing heavy getting too far into NC.


Bob

7:25AM WEATHER REPORT

Updating my 6:20am post: note comment late last night on prior post from Linn about icy driveway.  Thermometer temp doesn't necessarily tell the whole story, so check your surfaces regardless.

It's only 33 here at the end of Staymon, with enough light snow to dust everything.  Quite cold air is forecast to move in, but is slow in doing so this morning.  I went out to find the deck and steps icy, as well as the driveway....all ice.  Salted the driveway and will get a road report soon per Apple Creek Road.  Assume it is dangerously slick as well. 

Haywood County Schools are on a 3-hour delay this morning.

Our Winter Weather Advisory has been extended to 4pm today.  Light accumulations are still expected, mainly above 3500'.  Not looking for temps to rise today, and quite cold for a few days.  Winds will also be picking up later today.

Can't dig up too many reports around the region, but I'll be passing along pertinent info and data.  Stuck at home as my buggy is in the shop...wheeee.  


Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Starting at midnight, A Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect until 12 noon Monday.  The advisory is calling for 2-4" for the whole event, which could stretch through Tuesday night.  However, the best shot at accumulation for ACA should come during the advisory period.  We've been above freezing, but much colder air is blowing in behind tonight's front and it won't take too long to start covering roads.  Onset probably won't get cranking until after midnight.

Both of my favored models have ACA in just the 1-2" category, but the 3-5" range on those models is very close by, so need to play it loose.  Our upper elevations in ACA will get more snow, of course.  Highs Monday may well not hit 32 degrees, with teens moving in tomorrow night.  While temps will moderate by midweek, colder air comes back in to end the week.  In short: get ready for weather more typical of January in the mountains.

The bullseye locations are The Smokies, per usual, and also towards I-26 at the TN border and NE up to the Roan Highlands.  Those areas could go 5-8" by the time the NW flow event shuts off.

I'll be up early to report, and anticipating at the very least a delay for the Haywood Schools.


Bob

6am REPORT

It's been 36, now 35 degrees this AM with only light rain and some sleet at times here at the end of Staymon.  Looks like we should fare the morning fine insofar as roads go, and again roads are relatively warm. Even if it turns wintry early this AM, it goes back to rain soon enough. May get slick Saturday morning with a little bit of snow.


Bob

WINTER WEATHER MESS COMING

I muse that when you look at accumulations, this system is small.  Yet, at the same time is as complex a system as I've seen, and precipitation-types will be switching out much of the time, limiting accumulations.  Best way I can put it is, starting just before daybreak Friday through mid day Saturday, there may be periods of slick driving.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Haywood County from 6am Friday through 12 noon Saturday, and only for elevations above 3,500 feet (the 'blue roof' house).  What accumulations will occur are 1-3" in the advisory, but what works in our favor is that rain mixes in at times, along with afternoon temperatures above 32 degrees.  What starts to accumulate will start to wash away...and so that cycle will continue.

TIMING:  A wintry mix is expected before sunrise Friday.  Snow, sleet, freezing rain, just rain, all is expected to mix in.  But by noon if not earlier, it all turns to a cold rain.  Keep in mind we are heading into this with ground and road temps that are relatively warm, which helps travel.  By Saturday AM before sunrise, rain is expected to kick back over to snow, so I'm guessing if we collect an inch or two it would occur Saturday morning.  There will be more snow chances late Sunday night through Monday night, but the jury isn't in on whether there will be school-stopping snow for Monday morning.

The NWS office from GSP have Balsam possibly accumulating 0.08" of ice from freezing rain...THAT'S not a good thing, should it come to pass.  That's awful close by, too.  The liquid equivalent in this system is also pretty good, with 0.75"-1" forecast.

So, a mess that is as clear as mud is arriving shortly. Any travel problems would literally melt away in a matter of a few hours. I'll be up very early and will post a report by 6am (guessing) as I'm subbing at Bethel Elementary Friday and have to get off the mountain early even if there is a school delay.  Stay tuned...


Bob

LOOKING AHEAD: TRAVEL CONCERNS

First, if you didn't read the prior post, our HOA president Keith Patton has asked those that have not yet paid their 2015 dues to please do so.  :-)

-------------------------------------------

Weather-wise, what's coming up is a 2-part chance for wintry precipitation.  Early on, the first part appeared too warm for such, with the second part having much better chances.  As I look over the model runs (they come down x4 per day),  the trend has been holding for more wintry precipitation in the first wave.  Current 'thinking' by all involved is this:

TIMING #1:  Before daybreak Friday, rain/freezing rain/snow could be falling.  Forecast high is a little above freezing, so rain/freezing rain a concern through Friday into early Saturday morning.  That's not a snow-accumulation issue, but any amount of ice is a huge problem up here. The really cold air simply won't be here to cause a significant problem...so it looks.  First to show ice will be vegetation/branches/etc.

TIMING #2: Sunday night through late Monday night, we'll have colder air in place with a protracted NW flow that will be bringing snow, and this 'hit' is where accumulations of snow have their best chance.  Being a NW flow event, snow showers come and go, maybe with some peeks of sun, but a good band can drop an inch of snow, and we could have several.  Precipitation chances remain roughly 50% for this part.

AMOUNTS:  Even 0.05" of ice on roads is trouble, so we'll have to watch to see IF any road issues develop starting Friday early AM.  We're heading into this with road and ground temps well above freezing, which will help.  My snow models have the GFS running 1-3" snow and the NAM now 2-4" of snow...this snow part should primarily fall (if not all of it) in the second wave coming in, so plenty of time to watch the trends and see where we're heading.

I am guessing I'll post an update to this Thursday evening if I see changes worth mentioning.


Bob

2015 DUES

President Keith Patton asked me to post a reminder to those that have not yet paid their 2015 HOA dues to please do so as soon as possible.  :-)

This post closely follows a short weather post, so go back a post if you wanted to read that.  


Bob

WEATHER OUTLOOK

Only because WLOS keeps throwing out the snow word for this Friday, seems marginally too warm for that to happen here in ACA, at least at this time.  However, no one on TV has yet mentioned a cold shot by Sunday with potential snow late Sunday into Monday.  It would be a NW clipper system should it materialize, and accumulations would be limited, but at this early moment the GFS has been reading the same scenario for several runs now.  Stay tuned and enjoy the nice day ahead!

Bob

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY: NEW

Nothin' like waking up to big forecast changes, short term and longer term.  In short, we continue to dodge the bullet, so to speak.  

Before us this morning is a Freezing Rain Advisory already in effect until just 10am.  As I type, I have 36 degrees and light rain here at the end of Staymon, so no issues except keeping towels by the back door to wipe the dogs dry.  I would imagine 'this too shall pass' and we just get some light chilly rain.  Ground/road temps certainly are above freezing.  And hold on to your hat Monday as the winds will whip for several hours.  

There will be another limited chance for some snow or rain/snow mix daybreak Wednesday, but it looks short-lived.  At this time not expecting any travel troubles from that.  Temps later this week will be below average, however as colder air than expected looks to win out.

Bob

SOME FREEZING FOG THIS A.M.

I am leaving shortly, and had to go salt my very steep driveway as the skiff of snow late yesterday and some icy spots were a bit worse than yesterday morning for me.  While other areas are reporting dense fog advisories, and freezing fog at that, Haywood was not.  However, plenty of fog forming around my house at the end of Staymon and it's 26 degrees.  All that to say, please be careful driving down early this morning as I haven't the 'foggiest' what Apple Creek Road is like.  

Bob

WEATHER CONDITIONS

At 4a I had 31, and by 5a it was 32.  Best news is there hasn't been any precipitation for hours, but the dampness has made for icy deck railing and stairs.  My driveway is in pretty good shape, though there are patches of very small areas that are slick.  Biggest problems are toward Mt. Mitchell and also areas close to the Blue Ridge Escarpment, like Hendersonville/Saluda.

I won't be able to update this (if even needed) until after 8a.  Heading down the mountain soon like many of you...please post any reports/conditions in the comment field below.  Thanks!

Bob

WEATHER UPDATE

I'm writing this here short of 6pm....lots of chatter today from the National Weather Service office in Greer, SC, our controlling weather office here.  Personally, I think Haywood County is outside any windows of concern, but when you deal with something as simple as a 1 degree difference in the weather, it will make the difference of no issues or, worse yet, someone sliding off our steep Apple Creek Road.  We have to err on the side of caution as ice is The Great Equalizer: no one can drive on ice.

The GSP office upped Apple Creek into a Freezing Rain Advisory that runs from 10p tonight through 10a Wednesday.  It takes very little ice to make a bad problem, hence the caution flags being hoisted.  The favored window for ACA issues is 5a-7a....I am supposed to get off the mountain before 7a, so I'll be checking things outside at 5am and will post any relevant information on this blog. Any problems would dissolve by later in the morning with rising temperatures.  However....

At 5:30p today, I was already down to 35 degrees on my deck, but thick in the middle of low clouds.  Not the case down at the entrance to ACA with 38 and no fog.  As has been the case, the BIG issues are for areas far removed from us, mainly the Triad in NC and to a lesser extent down to Charlotte and the Upstate of SC.

SOOoooooooo...not much to do except wait for the early AM report and check of temperatures and precipitation fields.   Stay tuned...


Bob

ICY ROADS EARLY WEDNESDAY???

Marginal temperatures and precipitation will be in place in the post-midnight hours before sunrise Wednesday morning, making for the possibility for some freezing rain.  I have to leave before 7a, so I will be up early to assess my driveway and if needed post more information.

The risk for icy roads is greater down in the foothills and Piedmont, as temps will actually be colder in the lower elevations.  There are freezing rain and winter weather advisories in those locations, but only a 'hazardous weather outlook' for ACA at this time.

Any early AM problems will dismantle later in the morning as temps rise above freezing.  Originally, we were facing a repeat 'chance' for Thursday morning, but at this time it's doubtful if enough precipitation will be around.


Bob

OUCH....

Picture says it all this morning at the end of Staymon Road.  And the ol' GFS was right in a hit of snow, though it was a heavy dusting of just 0.1-0.2".  Used my leaf blower to clear the driveway as it was very light and fluffy.  Made for some slick spots last evening/night, so I hear, but had a report pretty early this AM that they got down from Staymon with no troubles on Apple Creek Road.  Good example last evening of how very little wintry precipitation can cause driving issues on our steep roads.


Bob

GLUB, GLUB, GLUB.....

...then BRRRRRRR!

Happy New Year, one and all.  After a bitterly cold snap earlier in November, we've been enjoying a mild-ish sort of ride through the holidays here on the mountain, albeit largely on the gray and damp side.  As I type this morning the rain poureth, with pups refusing to go outside just yet...and who can blame em?!

Even with some extremely cold air heading our way, chances for any of this precipitation to be snow are nil except for a smidgen of a chance tonight toward midnight as the cold moves in with the precip basically a finished deal.  No travel issues Monday. 

I should clarify that the going forecast is snow-free, but the GFS model does put some snow blasting through Wednesday afternoon and night.  So for now, hold that thought. 

However, the cold is an issue for well heads and pipes.  Though not the only cold day, the coldest of days will be Thursday where the morning low may give 0-degrees a run for the money, at least for the upper part of ACA.  For those new owners up here I've met, below zero temps are always possible, but thankfully those hits don't last too long. I'm hoping the Thursday AM low is the only morning below 10 degrees, though Friday, for now, is supposed to start out in the low to mid teens.

Bob