5:30PM FRIDAY UPDATE

 While there is a good deal of upstream moisture heading this way, moving almost due south...and while I'm hovering around 33 degrees right now...there hasn't been that much wind energy to push this well past the TN border into ACA (the red dot).

The GFS and EURO are in agreement that accumulations (which are light to begin with) fall off a good bit once it goes past Cataloochee Ski Resort and Maggie Valley.  I'll still stick with 1/4"-1/2" in lower ACA by daybreak tomorrow morning, and still keeping the outside chance upper ACA will push 1"-1.5" (ACA is in the first two shades of gray).

I will also stick to my earlier thought that roads will be fine in the morning, when the bulk of any precipitation is done.  Oh, maybe some white spots here and there, but I don't envision any salting needing to be done.  The set up is good for a couple of inches of snow, but no model has that in the cards for ACA.

Stay warm, all y'all.

Bob

COLD WIND AND A BIT OF, DARE I SAY, SNOW

 

Dawn overlooking Lake J community

Admit it, we've gotten spoiled by our mild-ish temperatures of late, so it stands to reason that party will need to shut down for now.  Let me cut to the chase:

First, welcome to the new faces on the mountain and reading this entry.  We have the cold incoming as I type, with gusty winds, now 43 here at the end of Staymon.  Lows will be dropping into the 20s starting tonight and stay with us through most of next week.  Heck, just might have some teens come Sunday morning.  Highs should stay above freezing, though maybe not by a whole lot, but above freezing being the operative idea.

Precipitation with this incoming system is limited, flat-out limited, and comes to us in two 'hits', so to speak.  The first is overnight tonight into Friday morning, and a dusting to a heavy dusting should be about it.  The ground/roads are 'warm' and I expect zero road/travel issues in Apple Creek.

The second and bigger push of limited moisture comes in Friday night, tailing off by or before daybreak Saturday.  That's where we might pick up accumulations.  It's a northwest flow event, so for now this is what Saturday morning could hold for us:  1/4" - 1/2" lower half of ACA, and 3/4" to 1.5" upper half (above the blue roof on Apple Creek Road).

Do I expect road troubles Saturday morning? Not at this time.  By then there will be some white surfaces, and we all know that even a very light cover can be icy and slippery, depending on your vehicle and tires.  For winters on the mountain, good tires are the best investment you can make.  If you're reading this and you only have 2WD, even if it's front-wheel drive, you will have a good chance of realizing it will be a matter of time, sooner as opposed to later, that you won't be able to traverse Apple Creek Acres safely.  AWD is better and 4WD is better yet.

The model runs have been getting a bit bolder (we're still talking limited amounts) with the EURO and the GFS in good agreement, with 6-10" up on the highest peaks in the Smokies (5500' and higher).  Typical of these events here in ACA, the accumulating snows are best above 3500' (blue roof), but some snow bursts Friday night could well make it down into the valleys for a while.

So, a small event overall, but the winter prognosis overall, which I've not talked about, is for a decidedly snowier winter here in ACA than we've had in a good many years.  The "Super El-Nino" is a real thing and alive and well, setting us up with the potential for well above normal precipitation this winter.  But I'll detail more on that in another post.

I'll update here if needed tomorrow evening about this time (~5pm), and if you have not done so, bookmark our ACA Facebook page as that has real-time observations and discussions, where this blog page is for a more in-depth look.  Click HERE for the FB link.

Bob

SAVE THE HOA DATE: 9/19/2026

 

(just a few pics from the end of Staymon Rd. Click to enlarge)

'Tis that time of year when we have our ACAHOA Annual Meeting, which will be in about 3 weeks:

Date: Saturday, September 19

Time: 10:00am 'til 11:30-ish

Where: Waynesville public library, around back, down low.

Each lot owner will soon be receiving a letter in the mail to this effect, along with the all-important proxy you can mail in or bring with you to the meeting.  To have a quorum we need a certain percentage of returned proxies to conduct business, going over the past year's finances and activities, and what lies ahead for ACA.

We would love to see as many folks as possible...I for one rarely see people, living at the dead end of a dead end road, so for many this meeting is about the only time I get to see some faces. Join us if you can, or send your proxy in (your vote, basically).  

As I write this, we are looking for one more board member.  Contact our president Owen Fulghum if you might be interested: OwenFulghum@gmail.com

---------------------------------

As an aside, that weekend, the 19th and 20th, is the annual Haywood County Arts Council's "Studio Stroll" which has a full slate of artist/studio offerings peppered around the area.  I will be located in "The Barn" behind the historic Shelton House with 5 other artists, with my Native style flutes and photography. I'll have to scoot right after the meeting, though, to get to my station, but there is a lot to see and do:  check out the link HERE.  Stop by and say hi if you are in the area.

MAYDAY, MAYDAY....(KINDA SORTA)

Thanks to a rather sudden notice from our paving company, our annual spot paving will be performed THIS THURSDAY, APRIL 2. This will involve sections from top to bottom, but more importantly, this will be side-to-side paving which will preclude anyone passing by.

In that sense, while there is never a convenient time given jobs, doctor appointments, etc., it's a necessary inconvenience that will pass soon enough.  The Board thanks you in advance for your patience while we make the one-day improvements to Apple Creek Road.

Bob

UPPING THE SNOW ANTE?...

At 1:56am, the National Weather Service put us in a Winter Weather Advisory and a Wind Advisory, which you can read about both HERE. 

My 'look' still has rather limited snow, certainly down low, but the advisory is for elevations above 3500'.  Still looking at 1", maybe 1.5" in upper ACA, with the 2-3" range close by, within 10 miles of here.  Too, with strong winds, snow will be blown around and hard to measure.

I suppose the biggest change from my wording yesterday is that roads could well deteriorate later today and tonight.  The rapidity of the dropping temperatures and wind will aid in dropping road temperatures to the point of "duck, duck, goose!" when suddenly there is a slippery problem.  I'm slated to be pulling the mountain at 5pm today, and I have some reservations about getting home, especially my steep gooney-golf driveway.  Supplies will be loaded in my car, just in case.

AAANNNNDD....heaven forbid high winds take out our power, a distinct possibility.  Lows in the teens Tuesday and Wednesday will have me dripping water, too.

Bob

UGH...AGAIN....

Glad we don't have this on tap!  Years ago....

Killer cold and snow and wind and....ain't that enough?  Geez....

Typical March, here.  Rain at times overnight, tomorrow, with temps crashing Monday afternoon, changeover to snow, and NW snow showers overnight Monday into Tuesday as lows fall possibly into the teens Tues and Weds morning.  Winds will greatly pick up Monday as the day wears on and the cold air punches in, and heaven forbid we have a power outage.

Snow amounts?  I don't see more than 1/2 to 1" for upper ACA, mainly because the ground/roads are warm-ish, at least to start, but because the snow showers could last overnight, there might be a light coating on roads as time wears on and the temps fall into Tuesday morning.  Luckily, at this time of year, the cold just can't last that long, and temps modify by 48 hours.

Until then, cold-killing lows Tuesday/Wednesday before we pull north of there.

Bob

MARCH MADNESS...

 

Early March Rainbow (click to enlarge)

...it's not only for basketball.  March, even early April, is normally pretty volatile here, and you just know with our crazy record warmth recently that it has to come to an end...and it will do just that.

I suppose the nice caveat is this late in the new year, with the higher sun angle on our generally NE exposure in ACA, any cold doesn't stay around as long.  

Our party begins overnight tonight, after the warmest day yet, when a strong cold front blows in with pockets of heavy rain, possibly strong thunderstorms.  Too, the temperatures fall Thursday with...yes...the possibility of brief snow showers in the morning.  MAYbe a light coating, but roads will have soaked in a great deal of warmth so no travel issues are expected.  Highs start rebounding Friday through the weekend, before a much colder airmass hits early next week.  Like lows in the upper teens and highs in the 30s to near 40 Tuesday.  Not a good weekend to be planting new things, FYI. 

Bob