MR. TOAD'S WILD RIDE...AGAIN

 

"We want to talk to you about your extended car warranty..."

  Two wild burros from Custer State Park in South Dakota, years ago

Geez...talking about herding cats or nailing down Jello squares.  This is NOT a big deal for us, but will be for the I-95 corridor in the Northeast.  Still, snow causes issues on our roads, even in smaller amounts, and we're heading into the freezer for a couple of days.  I'm typing at 55 degrees, letting some fresh air into the house, yet highs Sunday should stay in the mid and upper 20s at best.  There might be some snow flakes in the pre-dawn hours Sunday, but they would be inconsequential.  To bring in these much colder temperatures there has to be wind, and a good bit of it.

Sooooo...the forecasting conundrum continues this winter. First, let me put out the basics for us at the moment.  ACA is under a Winter Weather Advisory that you can click on HERE to read in detail.  12a tonight through 12a Monday, 48 hours.  This turns into a typical NW flow event for us, under strikingly colder air.  The BIG deal is the demarcation between the EURO and GFS models, our preeminent winter go-to models.  I'll start with these graphics that compare what the EURO sees at 3pm Monday for us and what the GFS sees at 3pm (click any graphic to enlarge):

EURO 3pm MONDAY

GFS 3pm MONDAY

The Euro has us in a trace-1" category.  The GFS has us in a 'skunk' with 2-3" VERY close by, hinting at accumulations above 3500' for ACA.  With the GFS showing +10" in the Smokies and nothing for us is misleading...the Smokies won't ever get 10" and nothing here, so a modicum of logic is needed.  But the elephant in the forecast room is the HUGE difference in amounts between the EURO and the GFS.  Both have been steady in their own rights for the past couple of days, so nobody is swinging one way or the other.  Rock 'Em Sock 'Em robot models.

For the NWS to put out an advisory over a 48 hour period tells me they are siding with the GFS solution, and I'm leaning that way.  I originally said 0.5" down low and 1-1.5" up high in ACA, and I might tip the upper ACA to 2-3" and 0.5-1" down low in response to that.  Next up are the NWS graphics for 'expected' and 'high side' snowfall:

The only thing I think/care about with snow and forecasts is that a lot of us here on the mountain need to get to work, doctor's appointments, etc.  Yes, in the south we tend to make a big deal out of a little snow, but for ACA we have some steeper grades that demand respect with very little snow on the road.  I'd much rather drive on 2" of snow than 1/4" of snow, and with our forecast temperatures well below freezing for up to 48 hours that's significant.

I'll update with any changes I see sometime Sunday; if I don't post, then I have nothing to change or add.  My brother lives outside of Boston and they are expecting up to 2' of snow on top of what they already have on the ground, with the I-95 corridor becoming a nightmare Monday under a blizzard warning.  In that sense we have it pretty good.  :-)

Bob

ALL GOOD THINGS....

Today, we will enjoy hitting 70+, at least down low.  However, you just know a round-house punch is heading our way because it's still winter, and ye shall not be disappointed.

Cold air is back in Sunday, with light snow developing later in the day into Monday morning.  Monday's high is forecast to hold in the 20's, with winds whipping.  The damndest thing is, as I write, the NWS at GSP has light snow overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning, and nothing more....but my models have the snow developing late Sunday into early Monday.  I've not seen such a diametrically opposed timing, but both the GFS and EURO have the later timing in contrast to GSP's timing.

Insofar as snow amounts, maybe 1/2" down low, with 1" to maybe 1.5" above 3500', upper ACA.  NW flow event, just a shocker with a major temperature swing. The ground and roads will hopefully have enough stored heat to where the roads aren't a major problem Monday morning, but far too early to tell.

Just wanted to give you enquiring minds a heads up.  More later.

Bob

TEMPESTUOUS NIGHT AHEAD...

From a few days ago (click to enlarge)

Okay, "tempestuous" may be over the top, but it's such a good word to say.  Yes, another skiff of snow tonight, cold temps, nasty wind chills, and possible power outages should the winds crank up enough.  That last one...well, the last two 'storms' we had promised gusty winds, and they simply never materialized here in ACA.  But tonight's tempest should have some gusty winds at the least.

This snow is a NW flow event, but I see nothing more than a dusting, if that.  However, we just saw how a minor coating can make for slippery travel in the right conditions, so be aware.  Apple Creek Road has some deceivingly steep sections. Above 4500' there could be 1-2", but there just isn't anything on my map iterations that suggest anything but a trace to MAYbe 0.5" in upper ACA.

Haywood County only has a Cold Weather Advisory for below zero windchills early Saturday.  Just to the east and southeast is a High Wind Advisory, but not us.  There are Winter Weather Advisories east and northeast of us, but not us.  At least not at this time Friday morning.

Forget the freezing mark Saturday.  Uncomfortably cold all around the board, dripping water overnight, keeping flashlights and candles handy, jugs of water just in case.  The usual drill.  HOWEVER.....

Starting Sunday we begin to climb out of the deep freezer and back into the refrigerator, before continuing to climb to rather spring-like temperatures next week.  None too soon for me.

Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING: THE WINDOW IS CLOSING

 When does the snow start?  Is that a flake falling? Is it when it starts a powder coating on the deck?  Or is it when it starts sticking to the roads? The main attraction for snow starting to accumulate should be around darkfall, but light snow is possible by midafternoon...or errant flakes flying before then.  By supper time, be home and hunker down.

Click HERE for the WINTER STORM WARNING details.

My original take from Wednesday was the 3-6" range, but the 7-8" upper range kept eating at me yesterday as each model run got a tad heavier, so I've bumped it up to 4-8" for ACA.  4-6" for the valleys, 6-8" above 3500'.  By sunrise, we should have half or more of our snow on the ground, and by 1pm the bulk of the accumulation will be done.  The only question is will there be any wrap-around NW flow to lightly add to totals through the afternoon, or will the moisture have dried up?  The EURO wants to add another inch or so, the GFS not so much.

Temps fall later this afternoon, and if you think we've been cold recently, you ain't seen nothin' yet.  Saturday and Sunday will be bitterly cold, and whatever sticks will stay for days.  Lows Sunday morning may drop below zero, maybe even Monday.  By Sunday into Monday, winds should pick up, making for windchill values in the minus 10l to minus 20 range Monday morning.  God forbid we get a power outage from downed power lines.

The quality of the snow should be akin to Splenda, not heavy and sticky, so snow piling on trees and power lines is not expected.  That's a saving grace.  Travel in and around the region will be shut down for a bit, and not all road salts work in such low temperatures.  You have time this morning to get your ducks in a row for sitting a spell.

This is a state-wide event.  Here are the projected totals across the regions (click on any pic to enlarge):

Bob

HERE WE GO AGAIN...

 This post will be a short one...there's already hysteria over early headlines and model runs that are over-the-top-hot with a snowstorm moving into the mountains Friday night, overspreading the entire state on Saturday and for coastal areas into Sunday.  I'll give you a quick synopsis for now, updating late Thursday evening.

This map is a generalized "% chance of snowfall amounts above warning criteria" that gives you a good snapshot of the extent of this expected storm, that ultimately transfers into a deep coastal low:

1)  Both the EURO and GFS have ACA with a couple of inches of snow on the ground by daybreak Saturday.

2)  The EURO stops our snow by Saturday evening, while the GFS has accumulating snow continuing into Sunday morning.

3)  There is no scenario with a 'warm nose' as all temperatures will not only be very cold but possibly the coldest we have had yet.  Whatever falls will stay for days

4)  As I write at 3:30pm Wednesday, the GFS totals ACA out at 5-10" (valleys to above 3500'), while the EURO totals out Saturday evening at 3-6" (valleys to above 2500').  I see nothing portending 14-20" that some other outlets are showing, not at the moment.

5)  Winds are expected to really pick up which will only exacerbate potential power outages and make for dangerous wind chills.  

SO... that's it for now.  The EURO indicates moisture pulls away sooner, and I hedge with that at this time.

As a P.S., I had a follow-up appointment with my surgeon down in Arden this morning.  On my way back, I decided on a whim to go over to 191 and take that highway in to the Outlet Mall area.  Remember when we jumped up to 50 degrees Sunday and I mentioned the AVL airport area stayed in the upper 20s all day?  Sleet and ice wreaked havoc there.  The tree damage rivaled some sights after Helene, with freshly cut stumps just off of the highway edge all over the place,with sleet still piled up in many areas.  We could have had it so much worse.

Until tomorrow evening, y'all...

Bob

DODGED THAT ONE...

What a bizarre storm that just blew through...we came out with possibly the best of solutions after a night of thick icing when the warm nose overwhelmed us with temps rising into the lower 50s in the afternoon.  The heavy rain dispelled the ice and we were back to normal roads, decks, and stairs. (Click on all pics to enlarge).

However...that warm nose slammed on the brakes just NE of us.  AVL airport sat in the upper 20s while we 'basked', relatively.  At one point, Hendersonville was 31 degrees colder than Waynesville.  Locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment stayed in freezing territory as that wall of water came through, with strong winds, and they fared far worse with copious power outages still in place.  Roads in central NC are treacherous with travel not advised for now.  Click HERE to see the up to date interactive power outage map from Duke Energy.

We call it CAD for "cold air damming".  Consider the geography of NC, with the Appalachian Mountains serving as the edge of a tub...cold dense air moves in from the NE and fills the 'tub', which is why locations on the escarpment and points east fared far worse.  

We have a lot to be thankful for, even with our 2-3 hour power outage yesterday.

The incoming arctic air has been slow to arrive, but we saw our Monday high whatever we had at midnight, and today will be in the deep freeze.  As I type, the NW winds haven't picked up much, but they will, and power outages are not out of the question.  

What we also have is a light coating of extremely fine snow, which we'll have blowing in for a bit today. Light is the operative word...any warnings we have are for the bitterly cold temperatures and windchills, with our coldest night of the season tonight.  I saw the 'expected snow' which had us at zero, so this 'high end' map is actually what is happening. Tonight, I expect to give zero degrees a run for the money, if not slightly in the negative.  Winds will have to have died down to get the lowest reading, but that's not a contest I care to win.  Anything that is sticking is staying for a while.

Click HERE for the latest public information statement on sleet and ice totals around the region.  Click HERE for all of the cold weather warnings, etc.

Bob

"WARM NOSE" EXPLAINER, UPDATE TWEAKS

We now await the arrival of our wintry forecast this afternoon. I don't have anything to add or change from my previous post...a 'warm nose' is what we'll be dealing with, which should be keeping us more in ice and minimal snow.  However, we should start out as snow before the precipitation type kicks over this evening.

  I always like to share/educate with information to maybe better understand what we are dealing within our particular area.  Below is the Sat AM national map showing all of the watches and warnings.  To say this winter storm is expansive is an understatement.  Notice the black circled area, a noticeable bump upward with a break in the ice storm warnings, not a straight line across.  That's the warm nose of air trying to push up from the Gulf of Mexico thanks to a smaller area of low pressure on the LA/MS coast. (Click on any pics to enlarge):

National warning/watch map Saturday AM

As a rule of thumb, the higher you go in altitude the colder the air should get, but often times the air will warm up just a few thousand feet above the surface.  All precipitation begins as snow, even in the summer, and then it melts.  If the air column stays below freezing, it's all snow.  This one missed us as it will fall farther north.  If the air column warms above freezing at some point, we're now back in rain.  The kicker for us is how close that freezing line is above our heads.  If it's high enough, say 10,000 feet, it will turn back into sleet/ice pellets on its way down.  If it's low, like 5,000 feet, it may not have enough time to refreeze and will hit the below-freezing surface as rain, freezing into a glaze of ice (the worst-case scenario).  

I'm afraid the latter is where we fill find ourselves tonight.  As I mentioned earlier, the High Country above 5,500 feet may find itself in the above-freezing temps and mostly rain, ultimately.  Warm air is lighter than cold air, so the warm air can't push out the cold at the surface, but aloft it can 'nose' in, creating our problematic forecast.

The massive engine driving out storm is a huge low back in the Desert Southwest, with an equally massive high pressure near the Great Lakes driving in some bitterly cold air. With the counterclockwise flow around the low, it will pull in a tremendous amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico...but at the same time, it's pulling in the warmer air, as well.  The map below is for this evening, and I drew in the white arrow to show the intrusion of warmer air into our set-up:

SATURDAY evening surface map

And that's the end of this missive.  Forecasting just where that freezing line aloft will be for us in Haywood County has been a real bugaboo for this ever-changing winter storm.  I still see us in rain and above freezing Sunday afternoon, and we'll take all of that we can get to dispel what ice/sleet we have, but Sunday night into Monday will be NW flow snow showers and deeply cold temperatures.  What sticks will stay for days.

Icy roads are a no-go.  Our decks and stairs will be the first to ice up, as well as the vegetation, so I'll be watching the ice on the deck railing.  Once ice gets thick and heavy enough, then power lines and trees can start to snap.  With power, often it's the transformers that blow, so don't be surprised to hear a kaboom or two.

As we all say, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.  Over and out.

Bob