Thursday, December 30, 2010
Travel on Apple Creek
John traveled safely down AC this morning at 7:30 a.m. He did not slide. However, he did say Mauney Cove was full of black ice and slippery! Claire
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Wednesday Plowing
Larry will be here in early afternoon. He hopes the sun will make the ice slushy before he begins. He will go as high as the Roses and will get Camry Road. Claire Stoeckel
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Plowing
After conversation with several neighbors who have had difficulty coming up the hill today, due to snow, I have called Larry. He will be here to plow the snow spots in the morning! We ran out of Salt, therefore, John has paid for additional salt from Ace Hardware. Thank you for your patience as we get through this week. Claire Stoeckel
715pm UPDATE from Bob Child - JUST DROVE UP
From the entrance to the Blue Roof, it's just plain slick, be it the slush, ice, snow, all of the above. Tomorrow's plowing will help, but for now ONLY AWD or 4WD OR CHAINED TIRES will make it, methinks. It was more slick coming up at 7p than it was going down at noon. I only go as far as Staymon Road, so can't comment beyond. I came in behind a 2WD vehicle that within 100 yards started backing down as they couldn't make it even close to Chris's house. DO NOT FOLLOW ANY VEHICLE CLOSELY BY ANY MEANS, not until the road is 'normal'.
715pm UPDATE from Bob Child - JUST DROVE UP
From the entrance to the Blue Roof, it's just plain slick, be it the slush, ice, snow, all of the above. Tomorrow's plowing will help, but for now ONLY AWD or 4WD OR CHAINED TIRES will make it, methinks. It was more slick coming up at 7p than it was going down at noon. I only go as far as Staymon Road, so can't comment beyond. I came in behind a 2WD vehicle that within 100 yards started backing down as they couldn't make it even close to Chris's house. DO NOT FOLLOW ANY VEHICLE CLOSELY BY ANY MEANS, not until the road is 'normal'.
ROAD UPDATE: Tuesday
11:30a Tuesday
Just got off the phone with Chris Martin...road still white and slippery, but he said it appears more people are negotiating the road with more ease. I'm heading out to Asheville and won't be able to post my report til much later this afternoon...temps have been warmer up high and still much colder down low in the shade, but some areas may go above 32 today. Warmer yet tomorrow with improving road conditions, so common sense will dictate. Gorgeous day, albeit white and chilled. (Bob)
Just got off the phone with Chris Martin...road still white and slippery, but he said it appears more people are negotiating the road with more ease. I'm heading out to Asheville and won't be able to post my report til much later this afternoon...temps have been warmer up high and still much colder down low in the shade, but some areas may go above 32 today. Warmer yet tomorrow with improving road conditions, so common sense will dictate. Gorgeous day, albeit white and chilled. (Bob)
(click pic to enlarge)
Monday, December 27, 2010
3p ROAD UPDATE and MORE!
3pm MONDAY
Drove down about 11am and did so very slowly....road is very snow-covered, with last night's 2" of new snow covering what was plowed. No one can ill afford to lose traction and begin sliding, so I crept all the way down.
Several cars are at ACA entrance on Mauney Cove Road...and Mauney Cove Road is snow covered still and requires care in itself. Even the major highways, while clear where the sun shines, are snow/ice covered in the shade, except for single lanes...only the foolish speed anywhere in these conditions.
The return back up the mountain was the challenge. In a 2010 Subaru Outback with 5 people and we began the crawl. THERE IS NO DOUBT THE TRICKIEST AREA is from the Martin's house up to close to the Blue Roof. Chris has been salting in front of his house which helped, but it's just slicker than the other parts. Once you get above the Blue Roof, it's all shaded with less traffic and more snowy tracks, which is better than ice and compressed snow. I held my breath getting up Staymon and was well pleased we crawled all the way up.
Can't speak for Apple Creek Road beyond Staymon....bottom line is I got down and back up, but you have to have the right vehicle and use your best driving techniques.
bob
-----------------------------------
According to Chris Martin, there was no lack of activity taking place near his house, from cars losing control trying to negotiate the road down and up. He sent along a couple of videos and some pictures from his abode....yes, the road is as slick as it looks! Thanks, Chris!
Christmas morning as snow started
2 cars heading up ~230p 12-27
in the thick of the snow
huddled, scared children...
"two down, one to go..."
one of our ACA Hallmark scenes
Apple Creek Road closer to the entrance
battle-scarred trees from mishaps
ROAD UPDATE
2:50pm MONDAY
Drove down about 11am and did so very slowly....road is very snow-covered, with last night's 2" of new snow covering what was plowed. No one can ill afford to lose traction and begin sliding, so I crept all the way down.
Several cars are at ACA entrance on Mauney Cove Road...and Mauney Cove Road is snow covered still and requires care in itself. Even the major highways, while clear where the sun shines, are snow/ice covered in the shade, except for single lanes...only the foolish speed anywhere in these conditions.
The return back up the mountain was the challenge. In a 2010 Subaru Outback with 5 people and we began the crawl. THERE IS NO DOUBT THE TRICKIEST AREA is from the Martin's house up to close to the Blue Roof. Chris has been salting in front of his house which helped, but it's just slicker than the other parts. Once you get above the Blue Roof, it's all shaded with less traffic and more snowy tracks, which is better than ice and compressed snow. I held my breath getting up Staymon and was well pleased we crawled all the way up.
Can't speak for Apple Creek Road beyond Staymon....bottom line is I got down and back up, but you have to have the right vehicle and use your best driving techniques.
Drove down about 11am and did so very slowly....road is very snow-covered, with last night's 2" of new snow covering what was plowed. No one can ill afford to lose traction and begin sliding, so I crept all the way down.
Several cars are at ACA entrance on Mauney Cove Road...and Mauney Cove Road is snow covered still and requires care in itself. Even the major highways, while clear where the sun shines, are snow/ice covered in the shade, except for single lanes...only the foolish speed anywhere in these conditions.
The return back up the mountain was the challenge. In a 2010 Subaru Outback with 5 people and we began the crawl. THERE IS NO DOUBT THE TRICKIEST AREA is from the Martin's house up to close to the Blue Roof. Chris has been salting in front of his house which helped, but it's just slicker than the other parts. Once you get above the Blue Roof, it's all shaded with less traffic and more snowy tracks, which is better than ice and compressed snow. I held my breath getting up Staymon and was well pleased we crawled all the way up.
Can't speak for Apple Creek Road beyond Staymon....bottom line is I got down and back up, but you have to have the right vehicle and use your best driving techniques.
MONDAY 8:25am
Boy, there must have been some kind of wind last night as I have snow all over the carport area. Picked up another 1-2" snow last night, with my storm total reported to the NWS at 11.2". Looks like we're basically done, though snow showers will continue on the TN border....just clear and doggone cold here (11 @ 7am). Wind chills will be brutal today, and though Apple Creek Road was plowed/salted yesterday, with finishing up secondary roads today, assume the road is very dangerous and slick. If you must travel, do so with the slowest of speed and utmost of caution.
I plan on making my way down, but it may not be until noonish. As always, any and all reports welcome. Good news is that this week there will be a decided warm up out of our arctic icebox, but there will be a chance for freezing rain Wednesday night. More on that tomorrow.
8am pics. Be well, stay warm! Bob Child
I plan on making my way down, but it may not be until noonish. As always, any and all reports welcome. Good news is that this week there will be a decided warm up out of our arctic icebox, but there will be a chance for freezing rain Wednesday night. More on that tomorrow.
8am pics. Be well, stay warm! Bob Child
Sunday, December 26, 2010
As of 5:22PM December 26
As of now, Larry is plowing all of the main roads as well as salting them. All secondary roads will be plowed tomorrow. Please note: just because the roads are plowed and salted does not mean that it is safe to drive down. Please avoid travel down any portion of apple creek tonight or anytime tomorrow unless it is absolutely necessary. We all know that the weather can change drastically at any moment.
- John Stoeckel
WEATHER UPDATE: 630p - Bob Child
While there probably have been impressive accumulations via snow showers today, they had to have been closer to the TN border. I've picked up maybe an inch today, instead of the forecast 3-5". The radar from Knoxville is lit up nicely, with a strong NW flow, but not a lot has made it here.
Overnight tonight through early Monday morning is the potential for another 3" here; however, with seeing what we did today, with a mediocre radar from east TN/KY, I'm comfortable saying another inch or so tonight, tops. Great, now to eat crow when I wake up and see 3"! :-) Just not feeling much more than an inch or so. Still doggone cold tomorrow, but by Tuesday we'll see sun shine and warmer temps, albeit relatively warmer. Heed John's words that our roads are from from safe right now; but they are plowed and salted, and when temps warm enough for the salt to do it's best work, we'll see some improvement.
- John Stoeckel
WEATHER UPDATE: 630p - Bob Child
While there probably have been impressive accumulations via snow showers today, they had to have been closer to the TN border. I've picked up maybe an inch today, instead of the forecast 3-5". The radar from Knoxville is lit up nicely, with a strong NW flow, but not a lot has made it here.
Overnight tonight through early Monday morning is the potential for another 3" here; however, with seeing what we did today, with a mediocre radar from east TN/KY, I'm comfortable saying another inch or so tonight, tops. Great, now to eat crow when I wake up and see 3"! :-) Just not feeling much more than an inch or so. Still doggone cold tomorrow, but by Tuesday we'll see sun shine and warmer temps, albeit relatively warmer. Heed John's words that our roads are from from safe right now; but they are plowed and salted, and when temps warm enough for the salt to do it's best work, we'll see some improvement.
SUNDAY 12-26: Weather update
8.5" on my deck, and now the bitter cold. 16 degrees as I type, and most of us won't see 20 degrees again until Tuesday. Throw in winds that will move in later, and you've got nasty wind chills and blowing snow.
WINTER STORM WARNING continues for ACA until 6p MONDAY. Since we are now in the zone of passing snow showers coming in from the NW, it will be sporadic snowfall that will have the potential to drop another 3-7" of snow....gets real hit or miss in the 'snowers' realm, but suffice it to say we ain't done yet.
I will let John S. post info on plowing schedule for today, though temps too cold for salt to be working effectively. I will assume travel down/up Apple Creek road is dangerous and highly discouraged for now. It's all I can do to keep my driveway passable for the future, and I dare not try to negotiate Staymon on the steep side at this unplowed time. Incoming family members (the young and the bold!) had to park on Mauney Cove last night and trudge up.
Some random snow totals from other locations:
3" Charlotte
9" Lenoir
8" Hickory
9+" Hendersonville
5+" Columbus (NC)
7.5" Lake Toxaway
4" Clayton, GA
Stay tuned for more excitement... ;-)
bob
WINTER STORM WARNING continues for ACA until 6p MONDAY. Since we are now in the zone of passing snow showers coming in from the NW, it will be sporadic snowfall that will have the potential to drop another 3-7" of snow....gets real hit or miss in the 'snowers' realm, but suffice it to say we ain't done yet.
I will let John S. post info on plowing schedule for today, though temps too cold for salt to be working effectively. I will assume travel down/up Apple Creek road is dangerous and highly discouraged for now. It's all I can do to keep my driveway passable for the future, and I dare not try to negotiate Staymon on the steep side at this unplowed time. Incoming family members (the young and the bold!) had to park on Mauney Cove last night and trudge up.
Some random snow totals from other locations:
3" Charlotte
9" Lenoir
8" Hickory
9+" Hendersonville
5+" Columbus (NC)
7.5" Lake Toxaway
4" Clayton, GA
Stay tuned for more excitement... ;-)
bob
Saturday, December 25, 2010
WHITE CHRISTMAS: 3:30p update
Please read the previous post for more information...I just wanted to update 'storm total potential', kinda sorta pulling all the recent trends, models, and notes from GSP office. Note that these are the numbers for ACA in particular, with the GFS being a bit discomforting. Both models are even bolder than before:
NAM: 8-12"
GFS: 10-15"
Solid 5.5" at 3:15pm on my deck.
bob
NAM: 8-12"
GFS: 10-15"
Solid 5.5" at 3:15pm on my deck.
bob
WHITE CHRISTMAS: SAT NOON UPDATE
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY 6PM FOR ACA.
(UPDATE @1:50P: Just got off the phone with Chris and from time to time there have been a number of cars breached sideways in the road, with some hitting trees, etc., down approximate to his mail box. He advises that no one be trying to negotiate our mountain until it gets plowed/salted, and even then it will be tricky. I have no idea about particulars, but it is Christmas Day and plowers are few to begin with...have patience and just know that for the moment weather is shutting travel down for now.)
(UPDATE @1:50P: Just got off the phone with Chris and from time to time there have been a number of cars breached sideways in the road, with some hitting trees, etc., down approximate to his mail box. He advises that no one be trying to negotiate our mountain until it gets plowed/salted, and even then it will be tricky. I have no idea about particulars, but it is Christmas Day and plowers are few to begin with...have patience and just know that for the moment weather is shutting travel down for now.)
Working on 4" now and just got an update from GSP office on this storm....and they're concerned storm totals will be even higher for our area. The last 18-hours before this storm hit, the NAM and GFS came into more agreement with more agressive amounts for ACA (8-10"). If the driving low of this storm continues to track farther west as it curls up the coast, it could put us in the 12"+ category for a storm total...nightmares of last year, eh?
Spoke with Chris Martin earlier, and he said the road is extremely dangerous...he saw several close calls with accidents, and only one vehicle crawling up. At the moment I have canceled any effort of mine to make it down to pick up company, which as I write is still well east of Statesville. It looks pretty obvious we'll all be hunkering down for a few days.
Here is a helpful link that you can snoop around on and find out general highway conditions in NC:
NC DOT LINK
You can select a region, a particular highway, etc., and it color codes road conditions in real time, including working accidents, construction, etc. The 3 traffic cams just east of ACA haven't been working for quite some time, though. You can pan, zoom, do just about anything with the gridded map.
Anyway, travel out of here in almost any direction looks to be a HUGE problem, with heavier snow toward the TN line and increased snow totals into the Upstate of SC, which is I-26 and I-85. Horrible driving conditions that will only get worse here the next couple of days.
Updating from an earlier post, I have had excellent opportunity to use my new 36" wide Manplow pusher shovel, and it is by far the best $90 I've spent in a looooong time. Can't sing it's praises enough, and it has significantly speeded up keeping the driveway cleared...well, truth to be told, just two wide tire tracks as there is too much driveway to clear!
Updates as I get 'em. Stay warm and safe, y'all.
Bob (and Molly and Mercy)
WHITE CHRISTMAS: It's here
Sat. 730am
WINTER STORM WARNING for ACA through MONDAY 6PM. As far as that goes, the bulk of NC's 100 counties is under a Winter Storm Warning, as well, even most of the coast. As the models started to hint at yesterday, this storm system was and is deepening as it nears the SE coast, and is in perfect position with moisture and cold air to drop a lot of snow for a lot of folks, even outside the mountains.
NAM and GFS both are exactly the same for ACA at 8-10", with both showing a 20" bull's eye at places like Clingman's Dome, Leconte, Max Patch, Roan Highlands, Mitchell, etc. Snow will continue today and tonight, with periods of heavier snowfall, and then behind a cold front we'll have even colder air and more snow showers that can lay down white stuff pretty quickly...that will mostly be Sunday through Monday.
Don't guess there's a whole lot more to say at this point. Driveway is all white, though the snow didn't start too long ago....time to go have some coffee and enjoy the day for what it is: a White Christmas. I will say I will have to be driving down Apple Creek Road by noon today to try and pick some family up near Bojangles, so will give a report after I do so....HOPEfully successfully!
One more video for you that I've always loved...The Drifters singing a doo-wop version of White Christmas to a cute cartoon. Enjoy!
WINTER STORM WARNING for ACA through MONDAY 6PM. As far as that goes, the bulk of NC's 100 counties is under a Winter Storm Warning, as well, even most of the coast. As the models started to hint at yesterday, this storm system was and is deepening as it nears the SE coast, and is in perfect position with moisture and cold air to drop a lot of snow for a lot of folks, even outside the mountains.
NAM and GFS both are exactly the same for ACA at 8-10", with both showing a 20" bull's eye at places like Clingman's Dome, Leconte, Max Patch, Roan Highlands, Mitchell, etc. Snow will continue today and tonight, with periods of heavier snowfall, and then behind a cold front we'll have even colder air and more snow showers that can lay down white stuff pretty quickly...that will mostly be Sunday through Monday.
Don't guess there's a whole lot more to say at this point. Driveway is all white, though the snow didn't start too long ago....time to go have some coffee and enjoy the day for what it is: a White Christmas. I will say I will have to be driving down Apple Creek Road by noon today to try and pick some family up near Bojangles, so will give a report after I do so....HOPEfully successfully!
One more video for you that I've always loved...The Drifters singing a doo-wop version of White Christmas to a cute cartoon. Enjoy!
Friday, December 24, 2010
WHITE CHRISTMAS: Update 4
5:30pm
Posting this a little earlier...will be a couple of hours before the GFS data is crunched, but the NAM is showing some significant trend changes, as is the storm track/system overall.
White Christmas on tap. Oh yeah. However, amounts will remain limited until suppertime Christmas Day...an inch, two....but the system looks to be intensifying Saturday night through Sunday.
The NAM has gotten crazy hot and heavy on the high peaks in the Smokies, now pushing 20". ACA is now clearly in a 6-10" zone for the whole storm, which doesn't tail off until Monday. Just because I see this deepening trend doesn't mean I buy into it...and I do want to see the GFS data shortly. However, I've been having the nudges that the amounts will be heavier as opposed to lighter for this whole event. (click pic to enlarge...ACA is the asterisk)
With that said, I have to say that the amounts I listed on the prior post are minimums. I'm well above the "blue roof" and the 'mirror corner', and I sense this could be 7-8" for me. 4-6" down low, and I do think our top at 3900' could be pushing 10".
Too, strong winds kick in Sunday night and blow the snow around and freeze our noses off, which comes with the territory. I will post again in a few hours, but I just want to put new information out there for the taking...or not! :-)
Posting this a little earlier...will be a couple of hours before the GFS data is crunched, but the NAM is showing some significant trend changes, as is the storm track/system overall.
White Christmas on tap. Oh yeah. However, amounts will remain limited until suppertime Christmas Day...an inch, two....but the system looks to be intensifying Saturday night through Sunday.
The NAM has gotten crazy hot and heavy on the high peaks in the Smokies, now pushing 20". ACA is now clearly in a 6-10" zone for the whole storm, which doesn't tail off until Monday. Just because I see this deepening trend doesn't mean I buy into it...and I do want to see the GFS data shortly. However, I've been having the nudges that the amounts will be heavier as opposed to lighter for this whole event. (click pic to enlarge...ACA is the asterisk)
With that said, I have to say that the amounts I listed on the prior post are minimums. I'm well above the "blue roof" and the 'mirror corner', and I sense this could be 7-8" for me. 4-6" down low, and I do think our top at 3900' could be pushing 10".
Too, strong winds kick in Sunday night and blow the snow around and freeze our noses off, which comes with the territory. I will post again in a few hours, but I just want to put new information out there for the taking...or not! :-)
WHITE CHRISTMAS: Update 3
Things that look pretty clear as we head into a White Christmas here in ACA:
Light snow starts after midnight, with small accumulation likely by sunrise. Snow showers occur all day, Christmas Day, then overnight, through Sunday and Sunday night, we get into a 50-50 situation of hit and miss snow shower bands. This event will last a little longer than the initial 'looks'.
The expected snow totals are always like trying to nail down jello. The GFS continues (overall) to keep us in a 3-5" band for the whole shebang. However, it is keeping the Smokies in a 6-8" band, tops. The NAM, which I'm liking a bit more, has a super-tight banding like the last storm, keeping ACA in this 2-3" band, but jumping up significantly in a very short distance to over 14" on the 6,000' peaks in the Smokies. Even for I-40 at the TN line there could be 10+" of snow for this event.
I guess I can't help but to go with the NAM's overall pattern, but realize ACA is too close for comfort with the higher bands going 4-6". Heaven forbid we pick up more than that....but for a storm total I favor a 2-4" snow for ACA down low, and increasing to the 5-6" range closer to our top elevation at 3900'. Again, these amounts will be spread out over a 48-hour period, and we will not be having any freezing rain, etc., just snow.
As I post this around 8a, there are no official weather advisories hoisted yet...I'll add those with an update either this afternoon, or closer to supper time this evening.
For the mood, click on the video below to watch Bing Crosby singing "White Christmas" in the 1942 film...one of those songs surely going through most everyone's head. Enjoy.
Light snow starts after midnight, with small accumulation likely by sunrise. Snow showers occur all day, Christmas Day, then overnight, through Sunday and Sunday night, we get into a 50-50 situation of hit and miss snow shower bands. This event will last a little longer than the initial 'looks'.
The expected snow totals are always like trying to nail down jello. The GFS continues (overall) to keep us in a 3-5" band for the whole shebang. However, it is keeping the Smokies in a 6-8" band, tops. The NAM, which I'm liking a bit more, has a super-tight banding like the last storm, keeping ACA in this 2-3" band, but jumping up significantly in a very short distance to over 14" on the 6,000' peaks in the Smokies. Even for I-40 at the TN line there could be 10+" of snow for this event.
I guess I can't help but to go with the NAM's overall pattern, but realize ACA is too close for comfort with the higher bands going 4-6". Heaven forbid we pick up more than that....but for a storm total I favor a 2-4" snow for ACA down low, and increasing to the 5-6" range closer to our top elevation at 3900'. Again, these amounts will be spread out over a 48-hour period, and we will not be having any freezing rain, etc., just snow.
As I post this around 8a, there are no official weather advisories hoisted yet...I'll add those with an update either this afternoon, or closer to supper time this evening.
For the mood, click on the video below to watch Bing Crosby singing "White Christmas" in the 1942 film...one of those songs surely going through most everyone's head. Enjoy.
Thursday, December 23, 2010
WHITE CHRISTMAS: Update 2
Gave up waiting on the updated GFS run from 1pm today....but the models interestingly holding us to the 2-4" range in ACA Saturday through Monday....the NAM is holding us in that range, while the GFS has been fluctuating in the 1-3" vs. the 4-6" range...a bit on the wild side. The timing is the same, the better accumulating snows cranking up roughly around sunrise Christmas morning, which has been the 'norm' from the 'get-go'.
You never take as 'gospel' what models show, as they are nothing more than that, models. Trends speak more words....and overall it seems the 2-4" range is likely. Oh, and along with sub-freezing temps until Wednesday, at the earliest. Wheeeee.
So I'll update with a Christmas Eve forecast sometime Friday morning. I suppose that somewhere in the back of my mind is the potential for more than the models indicate. The really heavy snows are up in WV and KY from this storm, but our 'flow' is forecast to be more N and NW, unlike the limiting W winds from the last system. N, NW flow opens the door for more ACA snow totals, that's all.
Happy HO-HO! Updating Friday morning sometime....
bob
You never take as 'gospel' what models show, as they are nothing more than that, models. Trends speak more words....and overall it seems the 2-4" range is likely. Oh, and along with sub-freezing temps until Wednesday, at the earliest. Wheeeee.
So I'll update with a Christmas Eve forecast sometime Friday morning. I suppose that somewhere in the back of my mind is the potential for more than the models indicate. The really heavy snows are up in WV and KY from this storm, but our 'flow' is forecast to be more N and NW, unlike the limiting W winds from the last system. N, NW flow opens the door for more ACA snow totals, that's all.
Happy HO-HO! Updating Friday morning sometime....
bob
WHITE CHRISTMAS: Update 1
Nice mini-layer of snow dust this morning...and one biting wind! Swept portions of my deck and drive and the fluff goes right off with no underlayer to speak of.
I'm blending the nuances between the 8p WED and 1a THU runs, which have only minor variations. The 1pm WED runs had both pulling back to 1-2", but I take that as an aberration of sorts.
Storm totals for ACA SAT25/SUN26:
NAM: 2-4"
GFS: 4-6"
Basically, snow amounts drop off a good bit as you head away from the TN border, which both models indicate. ACA is on the 3" dividing line with the NAM, and 5" line with the GFS.
While flakes can start overnight into early Christmas morning, steadier snow should start Christmas Day close to 7a and go all day....Sunday may see a round of snow shower bursts early, then just passing flurries or light snow showers.
The one aspect I will like about this system better than the last will be the absence of freezing rain and sleet. This system should be all snow for ACA.
Setting aside the complications for those that need to travel, and to get services like plowing, salting, etc., the idea of a White Christmas is kind of neat. Hasn't happened in Asheville since 1981...too, I happen to be a Christmas baby, so this will be one of my very few White Birthdays that I can remember.
Will more than likely post again something within a stone's throw of suppertime this evening.
bob
I'm blending the nuances between the 8p WED and 1a THU runs, which have only minor variations. The 1pm WED runs had both pulling back to 1-2", but I take that as an aberration of sorts.
Storm totals for ACA SAT25/SUN26:
NAM: 2-4"
GFS: 4-6"
Basically, snow amounts drop off a good bit as you head away from the TN border, which both models indicate. ACA is on the 3" dividing line with the NAM, and 5" line with the GFS.
While flakes can start overnight into early Christmas morning, steadier snow should start Christmas Day close to 7a and go all day....Sunday may see a round of snow shower bursts early, then just passing flurries or light snow showers.
The one aspect I will like about this system better than the last will be the absence of freezing rain and sleet. This system should be all snow for ACA.
Setting aside the complications for those that need to travel, and to get services like plowing, salting, etc., the idea of a White Christmas is kind of neat. Hasn't happened in Asheville since 1981...too, I happen to be a Christmas baby, so this will be one of my very few White Birthdays that I can remember.
Will more than likely post again something within a stone's throw of suppertime this evening.
bob
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
WHITE CHRISTMAS ON TAP
Likin' this 48 degrees here at 615a...alas, here we go again, on our winter rollercoaster.
Cutting to the chase, it will be a white Christmas here in ACA. Friday afternoon will have highs in the mid and upper 30s, but overnight and before sunrise Christmas Day the light snow should start and then pretty much keep it up through the day Saturday, tapering to snow showers for Sunday. Once temps drop below freezing overnight Friday, they won't be above freezing until Tuesday, most likely...and that will depend on snow amounts as temps stay a handful of degrees colder over snowpack.
No pre-snow rain or freezing rain or sleet in this incoming system...just ground/road temps cooling down, which should hopefully keep any icy layer under the snow held to a minimum.
Still a little early, but here's how the two models I follow are stacking up:
NAM 1-2"
GFS 4-5"
So far this 'winter', the first good snow I gave a tie to the models, as they were in good agreement. The NAM did better on the last system, keeping ACA amounts limited, but hot and heavy in the Smokies. Again, this is really early, so I'll just watch the trends in the model runs (x4 per day, fyi) and update Thursday morning.
Passing on a snow gizmo I just ordered that is perfect for my driveway, and look forward to using it this weekend. Could be some of you are looking for something like it. It's a 36" blade with a lawnmower type handle for pushing snow...called a "Manplow". Should significantly cut my time shoveling.
Stay tuned,
Bob Child
Cutting to the chase, it will be a white Christmas here in ACA. Friday afternoon will have highs in the mid and upper 30s, but overnight and before sunrise Christmas Day the light snow should start and then pretty much keep it up through the day Saturday, tapering to snow showers for Sunday. Once temps drop below freezing overnight Friday, they won't be above freezing until Tuesday, most likely...and that will depend on snow amounts as temps stay a handful of degrees colder over snowpack.
No pre-snow rain or freezing rain or sleet in this incoming system...just ground/road temps cooling down, which should hopefully keep any icy layer under the snow held to a minimum.
Still a little early, but here's how the two models I follow are stacking up:
NAM 1-2"
GFS 4-5"
So far this 'winter', the first good snow I gave a tie to the models, as they were in good agreement. The NAM did better on the last system, keeping ACA amounts limited, but hot and heavy in the Smokies. Again, this is really early, so I'll just watch the trends in the model runs (x4 per day, fyi) and update Thursday morning.
Passing on a snow gizmo I just ordered that is perfect for my driveway, and look forward to using it this weekend. Could be some of you are looking for something like it. It's a 36" blade with a lawnmower type handle for pushing snow...called a "Manplow". Should significantly cut my time shoveling.
Stay tuned,
Bob Child
Saturday, December 18, 2010
SATURDAY AM: update
Well, today has to be the day for me, with out of town obligations behind me. Finally driving back to ACA and MUST get to the post office this morning. Ice seems to be the big bugaboo in ACA, but at least temps are such that salt will do its thing...but only where it's been put down heavily enough. John Stoeckel has already alerted me that Staymon was still the horrendous icy bear it can often be.
To add insult to injury, we could well see another inch of snow today from a weak system passing through, which will only add insult to injury and cover up bare ice, should we get the inch. Sadly our temperatures will once again head south with minimal melting for several days, except that temps will be okay for salt to do it's thing most of the time. A tad above freezing by day, well below freezing by night.
FYI, average high/low currently at the Asheville airport (closest official NWS gauge): 49/28. No numbers that warm for the next week.
To add insult to injury, we could well see another inch of snow today from a weak system passing through, which will only add insult to injury and cover up bare ice, should we get the inch. Sadly our temperatures will once again head south with minimal melting for several days, except that temps will be okay for salt to do it's thing most of the time. A tad above freezing by day, well below freezing by night.
FYI, average high/low currently at the Asheville airport (closest official NWS gauge): 49/28. No numbers that warm for the next week.
Friday, December 17, 2010
FRIDAY MORNING ICE
NOTE: this info came from Al Rose who went down the mountain ~7am.
- WATCH FOR BLACK ICE, especially between Linn's house (just above Blue Roof) and Chris Martin's....where salt was laid down it's fine, but Al said he creeped at 5mph in 4WD and saw many shiny spots on road. Top was barely above 32...bottom was 31 at 7a. All other roads fine, Mauney heavily salted and great...temps soon enough well above freezing, so use common sense for the next little bit.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Road Update
I was able to get up the Apple Creek Acres and Staymon Road this afternoon in my wife's AWD Toyota. The road is still very hazardous, so going up and down should be done only when necessary. As always I have continued to stay in touch with Larry. I continue to weigh our needs and our budget constraints. With the two snow falls in December we have spent approximately 500. in salt and Larry's charges 80. per hour. Already some of you are parking your cars down the road and are communicating with one another for assistance and ride sharing. It is wonderful to see the neighborhood working together.
After talking with Larry today, he advises that no work would be helpful today. I will continue to assess with him daily.
Also, thanks to many of you who have take the initiative to salt the paved roads around your homes or on the slippery areas. Thanks to Sharon, Brant, Anthony and Heather (our new renters), Chris, Al, and myself. This is such a help!! John Stoeckel
After talking with Larry today, he advises that no work would be helpful today. I will continue to assess with him daily.
Also, thanks to many of you who have take the initiative to salt the paved roads around your homes or on the slippery areas. Thanks to Sharon, Brant, Anthony and Heather (our new renters), Chris, Al, and myself. This is such a help!! John Stoeckel
WEATHER update 12-15
Below-average temperatures will not be ending for at least the next week; with our exceptionally cold temperatures of late, the ground is well-frozen, so any incoming precipitation becomes a real nuisance.
With that said, the two incoming 'nuisances' are rather limited in time and scope, and shouldn't create any unusual problems in ACA.
#1) Overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning there will be periods of sleet and freezing rain, mostly...nothing heavy, but ice is ice no matter how little. By 9-10 am Thursday, temps warm above freezing and we go to all rain; I'm banking on that as I plan on driving back in lunchtime to take advantage of a 'warm' afternoon to do some driveway cleaning. ANYONE DRIVING OUT EARLY IN THE MORNING SHOULD FIRST TEST THEIR DRIVEWAY BY FOOT AND EXAMINE THE ROAD JUST TO BE SAFE. Friday will be one of our 'mildest' days, too, helping our melting needs....
#2) Saturday into early Sunday there will be another cold front with limited moisture...looks like we should be above the 32 mark for the day, and once again the moisture looks to be limited. My 5-day models right now hint at nothing more than a dusting, if that, except toward Boone where there could be a few inches. At this time I'm not really concerned about either event, in the greater scopes of bad weather for ACA.
Housecleaning: so as not to confound those not used to the nature of blogs, I am going to 'declutter' the posts by archiving any older weather reports, mostly. They won't be visible to link, but they will be available if anyone is interested in going over older posts, etc.
Bob
With that said, the two incoming 'nuisances' are rather limited in time and scope, and shouldn't create any unusual problems in ACA.
#1) Overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning there will be periods of sleet and freezing rain, mostly...nothing heavy, but ice is ice no matter how little. By 9-10 am Thursday, temps warm above freezing and we go to all rain; I'm banking on that as I plan on driving back in lunchtime to take advantage of a 'warm' afternoon to do some driveway cleaning. ANYONE DRIVING OUT EARLY IN THE MORNING SHOULD FIRST TEST THEIR DRIVEWAY BY FOOT AND EXAMINE THE ROAD JUST TO BE SAFE. Friday will be one of our 'mildest' days, too, helping our melting needs....
#2) Saturday into early Sunday there will be another cold front with limited moisture...looks like we should be above the 32 mark for the day, and once again the moisture looks to be limited. My 5-day models right now hint at nothing more than a dusting, if that, except toward Boone where there could be a few inches. At this time I'm not really concerned about either event, in the greater scopes of bad weather for ACA.
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Housecleaning: so as not to confound those not used to the nature of blogs, I am going to 'declutter' the posts by archiving any older weather reports, mostly. They won't be visible to link, but they will be available if anyone is interested in going over older posts, etc.
Bob
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
SNOW: Tuesday wrap-up
(updated totals Wed 12 noon in red)
We were fortunate to not get more snow than we did, but still have the bitter cold and icy conditions to contend with. I did scrape up NWS reports from this storm, fyi. Because of the protracted west to east movement of precipitation (instead of NW to SE), locations south of the TN border were spared somewhat:
(first 3 are in the Smokies)
Mt. Leconte: 16"
Newfound Gap: 12"
Cades Cove: 9"
widespread 3-8" east TN
18" @ Beech Mtn. resort
14" Mt. Mitchell ranger station
11" just west of Beech Mtn.
12" with 3' drifts Roan Mtn. Road
7" Rabun Co., GA
NEXT ISSUE: Wednesday afternoon we could see light snow in ACA...air temp MIGHT be a hair above 32, but bigger problem starts just before midnight with sleet, changing over to freezing rain through sunrise, then changing to light rain later in the morning as warm air moves in. My big question is if the freezing rain will be a valley issue where the cold sinks, with possible temperature inversions going on (warmer temps) higher up in elevation during the critical Wednesday night into Thursday morning window. I'll address that as the time gets closer
We were fortunate to not get more snow than we did, but still have the bitter cold and icy conditions to contend with. I did scrape up NWS reports from this storm, fyi. Because of the protracted west to east movement of precipitation (instead of NW to SE), locations south of the TN border were spared somewhat:
(first 3 are in the Smokies)
Mt. Leconte: 16"
Newfound Gap: 12"
Cades Cove: 9"
widespread 3-8" east TN
18" @ Beech Mtn. resort
14" Mt. Mitchell ranger station
11" just west of Beech Mtn.
12" with 3' drifts Roan Mtn. Road
7" Rabun Co., GA
NEXT ISSUE: Wednesday afternoon we could see light snow in ACA...air temp MIGHT be a hair above 32, but bigger problem starts just before midnight with sleet, changing over to freezing rain through sunrise, then changing to light rain later in the morning as warm air moves in. My big question is if the freezing rain will be a valley issue where the cold sinks, with possible temperature inversions going on (warmer temps) higher up in elevation during the critical Wednesday night into Thursday morning window. I'll address that as the time gets closer
Saturday, December 11, 2010
IMPORTANT MESSAGE: PLEASE READ
(NOTE: Check the two prior posts for detailed weather information for this incoming system)
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Apple Creek Acres Ice Snow Removal Update
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Apple Creek Acres Ice Snow Removal Update
For December 11-13 2010
Message from the President
- Our winter contractor has been notified. Should weather play out as predicted our contractor will be here late Sunday - early Monday. This weather pattern may be harsh (very low temperatures, ice and snow) or miss us altogether. Bob Child says this particular weather front is very unpredictable. I will personally make a decision to go down the mountain Sunday afternoon or take a chance Monday morning. I an unable tell others what they should do.
- I suggest that each driver do the same. Some people may want to park on side roads or along Mauney Cove Road and walk back. See suggestions below.
- Check our web blog site for current weather updates for our area. Go to your web browser and type in applecreekacres.blogspot.com The site will come up with Apple Creek Acres News.
Start Planning Now
- Do not abandon your vehicle in Apple Creek Road. This will stop plowing efforts. Your vehicle may be seriously damaged as cars attempt to move down the road.
- If unable to move forward pull or back into the right-away in a ditch.
- With permission park in drives or property (see list of phone numbers attached)
- Call your neighbors about road conditions where you live. If driving in form the outside call someone before going up mountain. Keep the phone list with you. Make copies.
- Find others you can stay with who live lower on the mountain or in town.
- Ask yourself how suitable your driving ability and vehicle is for this road
- Carry several bags of salt or sand in your car preferably over the rear axel.
- Carry extra cloths, shoes, blankets, food, flashlight and medications
- Get some Yak-Tracks for shoes at Mast Store in town.
- Have enough food, water and medications in your home for a week.
- Keep a battery operated weather radio handy in home and car.
- Have a close neighbor check on you during heavy snows. Do the same for them.
- Make prior arrangements for your pets in case you are snowed out of ACA.
- Remember you have to go up the mountain at the end of the day. The road starts to refreeze after 3 pm. Try to be home before then.
- Freezing occurs rapidly at the "Blue Roof House" location and above.
- Vehicles moving down the road have the right-away due to control.
The ACAHA snow and Ice removal efforts is governed by our budget and the weather. I will do my best to make decisions with each weather front, knowing full well that meeting everyone's needs is impossible. Be prepared. Know your limitations and strengths and think carefully and please use the Apple Creek Blog. It is impossible to be available 24-7.
Thank you,
John Stoeckel, President, ACAHA
Monday, December 6, 2010
Snowfall Map
The Greenville-Spartanburg NWS office put out a map of this past weekend's snowfall. You can click on it to enlarge it, though it's not a huge file. Interesting to note the far reaching tongue of heavier snowfall came down along I-40 and points west in Haywood County, down very close to ACA.
Temps are bitterly cold for several more days, so ice stays ice. Salting any trouble spots is about all we can do, that and taking extra precaution driving. Ice is what I call "The Great Equalizer" between the wide range of vehicles out there...it can make all of us loose control.
Stay warm!
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Happy Thanksgiving, Y'all!
I hope that wherever you are and wherever you go that you have a safe and sane holiday. From our first snow event of November 6/7, we've been enjoying some mild weather, overall, with many morning inversions where it was multiple degrees colder on Mauney Cove Road than up high on Apple Creek. Alas, cold will be here shortly, and then we'll watch the middle of next week as a potent storm system heads our way, ushering in December. More snow? Stay tuned...
The board has spent a great deal of time putting together a long-term plan for overall road maintenance for Apple Creek Acres, and included myriad hours spent with road professionals touring and assessing our current situation this fall. One long-overdue operation has been completed, the clearing of vegetation back from the road, excepting some trees which will have to be felled at a later date. This opened up some drainage ditches to do their job, as well, as storm run-off causes obvious problems for our roads. Plus, you can now see farther ahead and take defensive action before an Apple Creek speeder scares you (couldn't resist throwing that in there!).
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My unofficial tally at the house from our Nov. 6/7 snow was 3.7", the first 1.5" almost all melting by Friday afternoon. Best guesstimates were about an inch fell Saturday morning down toward the entrance, and 2-3" fell on our upper elevations overnight. The models I follow did a decent job of getting a handle on the amounts overall, though I can't say one out-performed the other. Our roads were fine, thanks in large part to the ground not being frozen.
"Over the river and through the woods" time for me...enjoy your friends and families.
Friday, November 5, 2010
SNOW: 730a Saturday UPDATE
Wouldn't you know that overnight the snow showers would do what they do best: DUMP. 2" new snow overnight at the house and the driveway is white, so I can only imagine ACA has some snow covered roads, at the very least above Staymon. One of my dogs went down the driveway and I could see black where they'd trodden, so that's a good sign for easier cleanup. Temp is 28, and forecast high is only in the mid 30s, upper 30s down low.
Our forecast is controlled by the office in Greer, SC, and all I could scare up was a 10p snow report wherein most Haywood County reports were about nearly melted snow from Friday morning's snow showers. Other high elevations had 4-5" of snow: Beech Mountain, Newfound Gap (Smokies), and Roan Mountain.
Below is a frame from my radar showing a steady band of snow showers moving down the I-40 corridor in TN and up to Madison County. Hard for radars to get the true scope of precipitation here because of the mountainous terrain and the low-level nature of these clouds to begin with. I can only assume that for a few more hours any additional accumulation would be very light.
As I see information come in I'll update this page. If you have a report at your house or road, make a comment to this post. It will be a while before I get out. Click on pics below to enlarge slightly if you wish.
Our forecast is controlled by the office in Greer, SC, and all I could scare up was a 10p snow report wherein most Haywood County reports were about nearly melted snow from Friday morning's snow showers. Other high elevations had 4-5" of snow: Beech Mountain, Newfound Gap (Smokies), and Roan Mountain.
Below is a frame from my radar showing a steady band of snow showers moving down the I-40 corridor in TN and up to Madison County. Hard for radars to get the true scope of precipitation here because of the mountainous terrain and the low-level nature of these clouds to begin with. I can only assume that for a few more hours any additional accumulation would be very light.
As I see information come in I'll update this page. If you have a report at your house or road, make a comment to this post. It will be a while before I get out. Click on pics below to enlarge slightly if you wish.
748am radar grab
730a on my deck
Thursday, November 4, 2010
SNOW UPDATE: Thursday AM
A WINTER STORM WATCH has already been hoisted for Haywood County and elevations above 3500 feet, but that makes sense because we are one of the 'border counties' with TN. That's where the high elevations are that especially catch accumulating snows when we get an upslope flow from the NW in TN. While ACA is a bit removed from the border, we go up to 3900 feet, so a very real potential exists for some accumulation at least on the upper half of Apple Creek Road.
Changes I see this AM:
1. Friday morning lows are coming in some 4-5 degrees colder, which is now below freezing. That complicates any of the snow falling after 1-2 am Friday.
2. One digital model I like moves us from "chance" snow to "likely" snow from 3a through 6p Friday. While Friday will be bitterly cold for us, highs should still go a little above freezing. Friday afternoon seems to be a good window for stronger snow showers, which, while intermittent, can dump snow quickly. Even the 'chance' category snow showers will continue through sunrise Saturday. If my high holds around 32 or 33, it will make matters worse (I'm at 3775 feet). Apple Creek Road could easily become a slippery problem as Friday progresses.
3. Models started showing the bull's eye in the Smokies a couple of days ago, but certainly there some areas that will get 6" of snow, with isolated heavier amounts. That's a lot of snow close to us. Both DO show accumulating snow, for at least the upper half of Apple Creek Acres...the NAM shows an inch, and the GFS has for 24 hours put us in the 2-3" category. Hard to ignore that.
Bottom line: Friday will be a very cold day that will resemble January. Chances for accumulating snow on Apple Creek Road will certainly increase above the Blue Roof house, and problems may increase some Friday afternoon. Temps are forecast to stay below freezing from 7pm Friday, and dip well into the 20s for Saturday morning. Any snow showers will stick, flat out, and while there is no discussion yet, I'm confident the snow level will fall to 2500 feet overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Head's up!
Just because it's slated to be a warmer and drier winter doesn't mean we won't have episodes like this. All the more reason to keep a check on your speeds and use utmost caution Friday and Saturday.
I'll be updating as I see any changes. Below are last night's graphical model runs for the two models I'm following, with the "X" marking ACA. Click on images to enlarge a little bit.
NOTE: To save space in the long run, as I update an on-going forecast, I will delete the earlier forecasts to reduce confusion. The "C" on this label basically denotes the third update.
NOTE: To save space in the long run, as I update an on-going forecast, I will delete the earlier forecasts to reduce confusion. The "C" on this label basically denotes the third update.
GFS Wednesday night run
NAM Wednesday night run
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Apple Creek Acres News and Fact Sheet: 20010-11
New ACAHA Board Up and Running
John Stoeckel, President Contact John at 828-456-8651 or email him at jrstoeckel@yahoo.com
Empty, Vice President
Sharon Gallimore, Treasurer
Dolores Foutch, Secretary
Irene Jackson, board member
Bob Child, board member and ACA Blog manager. Contact Bob at weatherflute@yahoo or the blog site at http://applecreekacres.blogspot.com/
Chris Martin, board member
Road Repair Accomplished!
Three sections of Apple Creek Road were repaired this year. This new surface will provide better traction during inclement weather. Broken road edges were repaired including our favorite pothole at the entrance.
Long Standing Board Member Resigns
Keith Patton contributed an enormous amount of time and energy to this community. He managed road repairs, cleared down trees and cut brush along the road. Keith has always "walked the second mile" for this community and his absence from the board will be missed.
Road Plan in the Works
The board is currently working with road maintenance experts to develop an on-going plan for the ACA Road System. This plan can provide a "checklist" annual maintenance needs for the main road, side roads, ditches, culverts, and overhangs. This will help determine priorities, monitor critical road areas, project cost, save money, therefore control fees and protect property values.
New ACA Blog Site Up and Running
Our new blog site at http://applecreekacres.blogspot.com/ was set up by Bob Child. Bob is a 20-year TV weatherman and invites suggestions and opinions at weatherflute@yahoo. The blog site will show ACA news, weather and later include our Community Watch program, road conditions and calling tree map. You can click on the 'archive' tab on the right to access all past posts...plenty of info there. Haywood County emergency information and contacts will also be listed shortly.
Community Watch and Weather Road Conditions
People are volunteering up and down Apple Creek road to observe and report road conditions in front of their house. Last winter our "calling tree" was very active and now we will have more observers willing to receive calls from those driving down the mountain, and those driving in from the outside. Our road is tricky with different freeze zones changing hourly as the sun moves along the ridge. Neighbors can help.
Interesting Facts from the Data Base
at least once a day in winter
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Winter Outlook 2010-11
If there is one question every is asking is "What is the forecast for this winter?" After last winter's very snowy and icy experience, none are anxious for a repeat. Last winter was 'below average' temps and 'above average' precipitation.
In short, temps look to run close to "equal chances" for temps above or below average, which basically translates into 'average'; precipitation is forecast to be average or slightly below average. That bodes well, but keep in mind those are broad-brush strokes. I've put sequential, overlapping 90-day outlook maps from the National Weather Service below.
In short, temps look to run close to "equal chances" for temps above or below average, which basically translates into 'average'; precipitation is forecast to be average or slightly below average. That bodes well, but keep in mind those are broad-brush strokes. I've put sequential, overlapping 90-day outlook maps from the National Weather Service below.
With that said, you can still have wickedly cold snaps, but they shouldn't stay entrenched for long. If a storm system comes in with warmer air, it can hold more water, and you can always get a perfectly timed cold front that meets up with the more watery air mass and get a big snow; however, the numbers are clearly pointing at a less snowy and potentially warmer winter than last year.
Only because it is upon us am I leading with a map I saved early Saturday that was pointing to what the National Weather Service is calling for: potentially a half-foot of rain here at Apple Creek Sunday through Monday. While we need rain, too much of a good thing has its own drawbacks, eh? If you have to hit the roads, watch out for certain ponding and potential hydroplaning....
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| POTENTIAL RAIN TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY 9-27 |
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| NOV-JAN TEMPS |
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| DEC-FEB TEMPS |
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| FEB-APR TEMPS |
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| MAR-MAY TEMPS |
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| NOV-JAN PRECIP |
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| DEC-FEB PRECIP |
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| JAN-MAR PRECIP |
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| FEB-APR PRECIP |
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| MAR-MAY PRECIP |
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