Happy Thanksgiving, Y'all!

I hope that wherever you are and wherever you go that you have a safe and sane holiday.  From our first snow event of November 6/7, we've been enjoying some mild weather, overall, with many morning inversions where it was multiple degrees colder on Mauney Cove Road than up high on Apple Creek.  Alas, cold will be here shortly, and then we'll watch the middle of next week as a potent storm system heads our way, ushering in December.  More snow?  Stay tuned...

The board has spent a great deal of time putting together a long-term plan for overall road maintenance for Apple Creek Acres, and included myriad hours spent with road professionals touring and assessing our current situation this fall.  One long-overdue operation has been completed, the clearing of vegetation back from the road, excepting some trees which will have to be felled at a later date.  This opened up some drainage ditches to do their job, as well, as storm run-off causes obvious problems for our roads.  Plus, you can now see farther ahead and take defensive action before an Apple Creek speeder scares you (couldn't resist throwing that in there!).

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My unofficial tally at the house from our Nov. 6/7 snow was 3.7", the first 1.5" almost all melting by Friday afternoon.  Best guesstimates were about an inch fell Saturday morning down toward the entrance, and 2-3" fell on our upper elevations overnight.  The models I follow did a decent job of getting a handle on the amounts overall, though I can't say one out-performed the other.  Our roads were fine, thanks in large part to the ground not being frozen.

"Over the river and through the woods" time for me...enjoy your friends and families.

SNOW: 730a Saturday UPDATE

Wouldn't you know that overnight the snow showers would do what they do best: DUMP.  2" new snow overnight at the house and the driveway is white, so I can only imagine ACA has some snow covered roads, at the very least above Staymon.  One of my dogs went down the driveway and I could see black where they'd trodden, so that's a good sign for easier cleanup.  Temp is 28, and forecast high is only in the mid 30s, upper 30s down low.

Our forecast is controlled by the office in Greer, SC, and all I could scare up was a 10p snow report wherein most Haywood County reports were about nearly melted snow from Friday morning's snow showers.  Other high elevations had 4-5" of snow:  Beech Mountain, Newfound Gap (Smokies), and Roan Mountain.


Below is a frame from my radar showing a steady band of snow showers moving down the I-40 corridor in TN and up to Madison County.  Hard for radars to get the true scope of precipitation here because of the mountainous terrain and the low-level nature of these clouds to begin with.  I can only assume that for a few more hours any additional accumulation would be very light.


As I see information come in I'll update this page.  If you have a report at your house or road, make a comment to this post.  It will be a while before I get out.  Click on pics below to enlarge slightly if you wish.

748am radar grab

730a on my deck

SNOW UPDATE: Thursday AM

A WINTER STORM WATCH has already been hoisted for Haywood County and elevations above 3500 feet, but that makes sense because we are one of the 'border counties' with TN.  That's where the high elevations are that especially catch accumulating snows when we get an upslope flow from the NW in TN.  While ACA is a bit removed from the border, we go up to 3900 feet, so a very real potential exists for some accumulation at least on the upper half of Apple Creek Road.

Changes I see this AM:  

1.  Friday morning lows are coming in some 4-5 degrees colder, which is now below freezing.  That complicates any of the snow falling after 1-2 am Friday.

2.  One digital model I like moves us from "chance" snow to "likely" snow from 3a through 6p Friday.  While Friday will be bitterly cold for us, highs should still go a little above freezing.  Friday afternoon seems to be a good window for stronger snow showers, which, while intermittent, can dump snow quickly.  Even the 'chance' category snow showers will continue through sunrise Saturday.  If my high holds around 32 or 33, it will make matters worse (I'm at 3775 feet).  Apple Creek Road could easily become a slippery problem as Friday progresses.

3.  Models started showing the bull's eye in the Smokies a couple of days ago, but certainly there some areas that will get 6" of snow, with isolated heavier amounts. That's a lot of snow close to us.  Both DO show accumulating snow, for at least the upper half of Apple Creek Acres...the NAM shows an inch, and the GFS has for 24 hours put us in the 2-3" category.  Hard to ignore that.

Bottom line:  Friday will be a very cold day that will resemble January.  Chances for accumulating snow on Apple Creek Road will certainly increase above the Blue Roof house, and problems may increase some Friday afternoon.  Temps are forecast to stay below freezing from 7pm Friday, and dip well into the 20s for Saturday morning.  Any snow showers will stick, flat out, and while there is no discussion yet, I'm confident the snow level will fall to 2500 feet overnight Friday into Saturday morning.  Head's up!

Just because it's slated to be a warmer and drier winter doesn't mean we won't have episodes like this.  All the more reason to keep a check on your speeds and use utmost caution Friday and Saturday. 

I'll be updating as I see any changes.  Below are last night's graphical model runs for the two models I'm following, with the "X" marking ACA.  Click on images to enlarge a little bit. 

NOTE: To save space in the long run, as I update an on-going forecast, I will delete the earlier forecasts to reduce confusion.  The "C" on this label basically denotes the third update.

GFS Wednesday night run

NAM Wednesday night run