WEATHER: All rain for ACA

While ACA was never much in the game for accumulating snow from this next system, it's now totally out of the game.  The incoming rains should help improve the likes of our ice-packed driveways and side roads, for which we'll all be thankful.


I was musing over this brewing storm while I was at work the end of last week, and it looked very nasty even as it started to take shape.  The expected snowfall from this storm is the biggest yet this winter, excepting earlier west coast storms, with a pretty large midwestern area pushing for 18"+ of snow.  (Click on the pic to enlarge)

forecast graphic valid Wed. AM

For ye travelers, Boston looks to get hit fairly hard, as well, but the farther south you go down I-95 the more rain mixes in.  DC and Philly are spared, under current forecast paths.  If there is any light snow to accumulate in NC it will be on the wrap-around backside of the system, and relegated only to our far northern mountains.  None is in the ACA forecast, though cold air returns by the end of the week.


bob

WEATHER: Wed. afternoon update

Though temps down to 34 from 37 degrees earlier, we've been blessed with above-freezing temperatures after a night of good rainfall.  Snowbursts have been minimal here, but snowing to beat the band in the Smokies (441 is closed through the gap) and from Max Patch northeastward.  There is one last heavy push of snow in east TN that may well push far enough to reach us later this afternoon and evening.  Otherwise, that will be it for accumulation potential.


Fine with me.  Driving out late this afternoon for Charlotte work so may not be around to post reports should it get snowing heavily.  The more time passes that we're in this dry slot, the greater reduction in snow potential.


For more good news, get ready for what will be great winter weekend weather!


bob

WEATHER update: TUE-WED

35 degrees as I type this just before 7am...I'll take it!


While ACA is under a Winter Storm Watch, it's for accumulating snow Wednesday afternoon and evening. Tuesday's precipitation will be mostly rain, with some periods of sleet and snow mixing in, but even overnight it's supposed to be mainly rain, with temps staying above freezing.  Snow is supposed to kick in late Wednesday morning, closer to noon, and keep going through the evening and tailing off overnight, with accumulating snow down into the valleys by late afternoon.


Models I follow both are sitting on a 1-3" snowfall.  My original call for ACA was 2-6".  The WS Watch is looking for 3-5" above 3500 feet, more on the higher peaks along the TN border.  And this is for Wednesday, not any earlier.


Could be worse...I see heavy snow is once again forecast for the northeast from Providence to Boston, up to a foot and a half AGAIN.  Ouch.


bob

SNOW: Monday AFTERNOON update

This is VERY short...while I'm not making a decision yet, I thought you'd like to know what I've seen this afternoon that is most interesting.  GSP, the weather service office that controls our forecasts, has gone with the "majority of rain" scenario for ACA and NOT the snow...even overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.  Boy, would I love that, to get rid of some of our snow and ice pack.  As a result, accumulations from this system are minimized greatly.


Even so, if there is air cold enough to support snow in the higher elevations, snow amounts would be heavy...but the "WAA" or "Warm-Air-Advection" the forecasts are leaning towards keep the freezing line out of the mountains and well to the northwest.  This has been in the models for days, and probably why a few model runs kept snow totals 1" and less.


SOOOoooooo...I will wait and mull, but wanted to post this info as it was significant for planning purposes.  A very minor temperature swing downwards would cause a major problem, so just keep that in mind.  Posting info for what it's worth at the moment.


bob

SNOW: Monday AM update

~7am   The dusting of snow we got overnight might be a little slick in spots, so just be careful.  Temps will warm and some sun should come out later....oops, forgot, a lot of us don't get direct winter sun!  :-)


The problem with this whole incoming system is what the temperatures are going to do.  There will be the moisture, so it's a matter of how much rain mixes in...or not.  Best onset for troublesome weather will be Tuesday afternoon, with the biggest concern of what falls overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.  The timing is the same as it has been.


forecast storm totals (through Wed.)
NAM  2-5"
GFS   4-8" (has run 8-12" twice)


Will update later this evening with any changes.
bob

SNOW TUE-WED: Calling off the dogs?

This is the most confounding storm yet this season for us.  For a few weeks, now, there has been as high a level of uncertainty and disagreement between models and runs for just about everything.  More flip-flopping than a striped bass in the bottom of a boat after being caught. Within the past 24 hours alone models have ranged from 6-8" to recent runs of less than 1" for all of the mountains.  Go figure. 


Will keep my gut call for a 2-6" storm total (higher amounts for higher elevation) thinking for ACA for now.  I have a hard time buying the trends that take snow out of the forecast, though.


First, any precipitation Monday would be light and inconsequential.  The best window for precipitation would be Tuesday afternoon, and an even better chance overnight into early Wednesday morning, tailing off Wednesday. That will be the best chance for problems to develop as temps will be at their coldest.  If there are going to be road issues for us it will be later Tuesday and especially by Wednesday morning.  


The bigger 'IF' is that if this system doesn't pull together, and we DON'T get the overnight period of heavier precipitation Tue. into Wed., then this will be a mole hill and not a mountain of a forecast to deal with.


May update tonight, Monday AM at the latest.


bob

WEATHER update: MON-WED

Saturday AM


GREATLY heartened to see a significant trend (and agreement) in the models that continue to poo-poo this next system, which would start later in the day Monday and last maybe into Wednesday morning (if there are to be travel woes in ACA it would start early Tuesday).  The area of low pressure driving the storm simply doesn't appear to be able to form until it gets to the Delmarva Peninsula (east of DC).  And yet...and yet, there is still that possibility that this could all change on a dime for something bigger, so not letting my guard down yet.


While we'll have some snow, there isn't much moisture to be had, and without the low forming there won't be any pumped in from the Gulf and Atlantic to help out.  Fine with me.  Models are running from a dusting to maybe 3", but that's it.  There was the one (and only one) ominous GFS run with the heavy amounts, but it has totally backed off of that idea for now (famous last words...!).


For any of you traveling afar, this storm could make a huge mess of things around the Philadelphia area, which could easily affect airports from the DC area through New York....not sure the storm hugs the coast long enough to reach Boston, but Philly is in a GFS-projected 14-18" snow storm starting Tuesday going through Wednesday.


On a more local level, forecasts for the NC Foothills and Piedmont are for wintry mix to crank up later in the day Tuesday, and maybe turning to all snow overnight into Wednesday morning before ending.  The problem for almost all of us are the marginally freezing temperatures.  A forecast that's all snow is better dealt with than a storm that has freezing rain and sleet mixing in with snow.  Storm totals aren't being forecast yet, and I doubt they'd be impressive on any level...but throw ANYthing icy into the equation and you create Headache Central for travel.


Will reassess Sunday AM and post info.


bob

SNOW outlook: Mon-Wed

Friday 1-21-11 update:


Thankfully just a heavy dusting last night, at least where I am at the end of Staymon...less than a half-inch, but driveway was solid white.  Our NEXT system (no, it doesn't seem to end, does it?) is coming in Monday and will hang around intermittently (NW snow showers) through Wednesday.  This could be a big issue for travel in the Foothills and Piedmont should a classic cold wedge develop along the eastern flanks of the Blue Ridge.  Freezing rain or a wintry mix may set up shop there.


Most of our forecast precip is snow, but the temps are not crashingly cold, like we're having today.  Rain could mix in on Tuesday, which is never a welcome situation when re-freeze comes in once it gets dark.


For ACA, the NAM can't see the system yet as it's just a frog hair out of sight for the 84-hour model run.  The GFS 120-hour outlook, 5 days, continues to see a 2-4" storm total....except for the overnight 1am run today where it jumped ACA significantly into the 8-10" range.
  
Discomforting, but one model run does not hysteria make, unless it keeps it up.  Not thrilled over the prospects, though my new set of chains came in, which makes me feel a lot better~!  I'll update again Saturday sometime.


Bob

WINTRY MIX Mon-Tue

(NOTE: I put a mini-update in the comments section - thanks for all the input!)

Talk about your perfectly messy, sloppy forecast... 

Snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain will all play musical chairs this Monday and Tuesday.  The big concern won't be for accumulating snow but for icing.  My snow models paint nothing more than an inch (if even that), maybe two on high peaks.  The better chance for any light accumulation would be overnight Monday into Tuesday.  Low temps won't be much below freezing, but that's cold enough for potentially icy, slick conditions early Tuesday morning.
  


bob

Plowing

Hey Folks,
Larry plowed the primary roads yesterday and will plow the gravel roads today (Wed.). Claire

1-10-11 Snowfall map

Thought you'd like to see this graphic, just put out by the Raleigh NWS office.  Storm totals, though the NC mountains not finished with this event yet. Click on pic to enlarge.  SW NC mountains not their coverage zone and usually don't have the best data, since coordination with other weather offices is often lacking.

OVERNIGHT WEATHER 1/10/21

(530a TUE update below)


Periods of 'likely' sleet/frzg. rain/snow from supper through midnight, then back to spotty periods of light snow.  Temps below freezing, so any liquid stuff freezes.  That will be the case through Tuesday, though highs will try to hit 30.  Ice is nobody's friend, so travel concerns triple with enough accumulation (and it don't take much, do it?!).


Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday we transition back to one of our wonderful NW snow events with bitterly cold, strong winds.  There will be accumulations Wednesday, but simply can't tell if it's the 1-2" variety or something more noisome than that.  The way things have been going this winter, I vote for noisome and more than expected.  ;-)


After an initial scan, both models keeping ACA in a 1-2" band for tonight's and Wednesday's wrap-around snow flow.  The Smokies peaks are in an 8-10" zone, but both models do not paint much snow penetration into the NC side. Our exposed high elevations near 3900' conceivably could pick up a little more.  Biggest issue this AM is the iciness you have, and the crashing incoming winds and cold tonight.  


Bob

SNOW: MONDAY AM

Not a whole lot to add to the going forecast.  A friend in Lake Toxaway already had 5" before 4am, one of the locations in a potential 'hot' zone of well over 12" of fluff stuff.  The freezing drizzle is still expected to mix in close to midnight and last through Tuesday morning. 


As I update just before 5am, interesting to note radar returns are moving SW to NE aloft...that will limit heavy mountain snow until that moisture moves more northerly later today.  The flip side it's accumulating and starting earlier in the Foothills and Piedmont. 


Also interesting to note that the wrap-around snow activity into Wednesday may be beefier than first expected...the low causing snow now will be winding up tighter than a top as it heads to Nantucket, creating a strong and bitterly cold NW flow for us.  Late night models now have 18"+ for the Smokies high peaks, indicative of the heavier snow anticipated from the second half of this storm.


I imagine we, ACA, will have more accumulating snow Wednesday, but at this time I can't grasp how much.  Today is certainly the monster under the bed.  


bob

SNOW: SUN PM update 1-9

Well, the afternoon data sets are in, and ACA is simply in line for a 6-10" snow per both models, with the majority of the snow falling all day Monday.  Typically, we go higher at our top, but this is a totally different system in that the flow aloft will be from the E, NOT the NW as we've seen so far this year.  Most of us have a NNE exposure, so to some degree the higher amounts up high might be blocked a little by peaks and ridges to our south side.  I still think we could see a 6-12", though, with 6" for the entrance area and up to a foot up high if the exposure is right.  Eeegads.  The National Weather Service is giving ACA a general 5-9" scenario, so I'm comfortable with that. 

Should be some impressive snow amounts toward the eastern Appalachian ramparts near Highlands and Toxaway, and into the SC Foothills and Piedmont...12"+ may  well show up around Anderson, SC, also, and points east.  Somebody somewhere well east of ACA will most likely get clobbered.


ONSET of snow is 'likely' by 4am, and 'definite' by 6am, per a digital model that does pretty well. Assume roads will quickly be deteriorating Monday morning, with periods of heavy snow.  The 'definite' nomenclature seems to hang through the day until it gets dark...and then the second and equally bigger concern will be freezing rain/drizzle in place Monday night.  A glaze on snow is nasty, and that seems to be our fare ahead, the freezing drizzle window being at it's 'worst' through 5-6am Tuesday.  After that, much colder air comes in, and snow showers from the NW start kicking up, which may well add another couple of inches later Tuesday through at least the first half of Wednesday.  Bitter cold lows in the single digits will end out our week.


"Oh, Death, where is thy Spring?"


Lots of snow, then a crusty icy layer, then a little more snow...a lovely layer cake we'd just as soon give to somebody else.  Maybe we should call this the Fruitcake Storm of 2011...(apologies to those few who adore fruitcake!).


I'll update in the morning, pretty early.  Thanks in advance to the reports some of you will be sending, be it snow, roads, etc. as I'm on the hoof and can't look out my window at my Siberian landscape.


And if you see Yaks going by two by two, please don't let me know....


bob

MONDAY STORM: Outlook

Suffice it to say this next storm is coming in on top of snowy, icy conditions in many areas.  Winds and bitter cold moved our snow around, but 9-11" fell toward the top of ACA, with 4-6" lower.  Low of 3 degrees this morning at the house...ouch.


WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ACA through 6am TUESDAY


Flakes could start around midnight, but heavy action gets cranking well before sunrise Monday.  Looking for another 4-8" snow for ACA (almost a repeat of last system), which blends the NAM's 6-8" with the GFS's 4-6" outlook.  Snow falls all day Monday, heavily at times...I have to hedge with my gut in that amounts could be higher for us, much higher, and in this evening's update I'll decide which side of the fence I'll get off on.  This is a huge storm that will affect a lot of southern real estate, and affect many more people...and the slightest changes in this storm could have huge effects on travel, power outages, etc.


The most uncomfortable part of this forecast is what happens Monday night.  Warmer air aloft gets closer to the surface, and although our thermometers should all read 30 or below, the cold layer may become thin enough that we see a protracted period of freezing rain and sleet mixing in with the snow.  Not thick enough for ice storm warning criteria, but even the slightest glaze to the snow will make for treacherous driving conditions, no matter how much Larry plows.  Good salting will help, though.  Bitter cold moves in behind this storm, and temps will be slow to rise by the end of the week, thanks to all the snow cover we'll have.


I am leaving later today for Charlotte, where I'll be working for my former station during this storm.  I will update this blog as I always do, but will not be able to provide any pictures and storm info from my house.  It's been wonderful to have everyone's input on roads and snow totals and conditions, etc.  Thanks in advance for keeping those reports coming.  More and more are reading and relying on the information we can cull.


Stay warm!
bob

Plowing

After plowing, John was able to drive up to Staymon.
Sunday should be the opportunity to go down the hill.
Monday will be problematic; if the snow goes as long as anticipated on Monday, Larry will not return until Monday night or Tuesday morning.

A LITTLE HUMOR...

Couldn't help but take into account our winter weather, combined with communications with several of you...and so I present a picture of a tongue-in-cheek present I made for someone last summer, in honor of not only where we are weather-wise, but what lies ahead...

The Perfect Clock

UPDATE FROM CHRIS MARTIN:  Larry is working down here and moving up road.  Snow on the road is really not that heavy.  It's 32 degrees at 12pm.

(road and weather info in prior post)

SNOW: SAT AM

NOTE FROM CHRIS MARTIN:  Larry is working down here and moving up road.  Snow on the road is really not that heavy.  It's 32 degrees at 12pm.

Pics from earlier today. at 12:25p I'm at 26 degrees and climbing slooooowly.  All over but the shoutin'...

(This 8am pic just sent in from Christ Martin near ACA entrance....4" snow, no traffic on Apple Creek, and no report from him per Mauney Cove conditions)

(from Al Rose @ 9:15am close to the top...clearly heavier snowfall at the top of ACA than down below, by over 2 to 1)

This morning's show should start tapering off later this morning, so by noon we should be done with anything but light snows, blustery winds, and whipping snows from that which has already fallen.  Per yesterday's note from John/Claire, Larry will begin plowing and salting this morning, but given the heavy snow, certainly above 3500', we all need patience as it will take longer to get everything done.  Just in time for.....

OUR NEXT SNOW STORM

The timeframe of this next system for ACA is an onset well before sunrise Monday, lasting through midnight Monday with lighter activity through the day Tuesday.  Estimated snow amounts for ACA run as follows at this time:

NAM: 6-10"

GFS:  8-12"

The GFS did better with this storm's higher amounts for us, predicting 8-10".  There is one sticky wicket that is disconcerting, and that is how thick the subfreezing air is at the surface.  There is a chance for a warm mid-layer to be in place that, even with the thermometer at 27 degrees, could be producing heavy sleet for a while on Monday, which nobody wants to happen.  Just throwing that out there for now.

This next storm has most models painting a heavy snow forecast somewhere around the Atlanta-Athens-Greenville-Augusta-I-20 corridor areas...maybe a foot or more.  The NAM has backed off the 18" type snows I'd mentioned earlier for the SE Blue Ridge, but the amounts are still in the 8-12 range for many locations.  It will continue to be a very tricky system as any track/path change of the driving low can make the difference in an area getting skunked, and one getting 16" of snow.  Stay tuned.

bob

Road Update

It is now Friday at 5:00 p.m. John and Larry have decided that the roads will be plowed and salted, first thing on Saturday morning. I hope you can make your plans around this report! Claire


Read prior posts for more information...

ROAD CONDITIONS: FRIDAY PM

Feel free to post any road info in the 'comment' section at the end of this post.  Road conditions/snow amounts change markedly just above the "blue roof", which is akin to the 3500' elevation.  Slushy quality to the snow is slick even for AWD vehicles.  5-6" of new snow here, 3775', and snowing quickly and heavily.  My driveway pic was a mere 10 minutes after scraping down to the asphalt.  30 degrees and slowly dropping. (5:30pm pics/report)


bob

SNOW: 630a FRI update

11:50pm NOTE: Enjoy while we have it...34 degrees at 3775' and my 'test' area is melting the 1" picked up...later this afternoon this will all change, but will continue to help our roads stay 'ok' for now...
---------------------------------------
This morning, the totals are upped some for both models as this potential for accumulating snow for ACA continues through Saturday, now.  After a minimal break Sunday, even more snow dumps Monday and Tuesday. Snow amounts will simply be a running total from here on out.


WINTER STORM WARNING in effect through 6pm Saturday.
NAM for ACA: 4-6"
GFS for ACA:  6-8"


I've got to up ACA to the 5-8" range.  Smokies peaks will go the 12" range.  Even valley locations look to get 4-5" this go 'round. 


Digital hourly forecasts call ACA's snow "likely" through 7a Saturday before going to "chance" snow showers; however, it puts in the highest wording level "definte" from 11a through 6p today FYI.


This is a NW flow event, typical of what we've seen this winter, high amounts on the TN border then tailing off south and east.  Monday and Tuesday, the game changes in a massive way, so it appears.  


Just for the fun of it, the overnight NAM is clearly seeing Monday, as the snow amounts on the SE edge of the Blue Ridge are in the 18" range (Caeser's Head to Highlands to Clayton).  Tryon/Polk County in the 14" range.  Charlotte in the 6" range.  Hickory in the 8" range.  Greenville-Spartanburg nearing 10".  All that paints a story of moisture being brought in from the south and east instead of the NW.  "Ugly" with a capital U, if that verifies. 


Bottom line: travel will be a snowy, icy mess for a long time in Haywood County, and other areas, too.  Temps stay below freezing through at least next Friday, so not much else for some to do but hunker down.

SNOW: 745PM THU update

Last night's snow was a serious headache given the watery, icy, slushy base to the heavy wet snow.  Exceedingly slippery roads it made.  UPS delivered my tire chains yesterday morning and I eagerly tried them out this afternoon...very pleased, and even negotiated Staymon with only front wheel drive.  Alas, rear-wheel drive with chains is not as effective, as one truck here attested.  Spoke with Larry as he arrived at ACA this afternoon, as both of us put on our chains.  Road was fine to blue roof, and then it was a different world there on up.


Tonight's snows will start accumulating after midnight. 'Likely' snow categories are popping up by 3-4am and hanging in there all day and evening Friday, with a couple of periods printing out 'Definite'.  Point is, the going forecast for 3-5" for ACA seems very reasonable.  What was an 'OK' road this afternoon will be deteriorating quickly tomorrow, and early.


Now the wrinkle: the GFS has ACA consistently in an 8-10" band of snow, for several runs, now.  However, I think the GFS is 'seeing' Monday also, and intends those amounts to be a combination of Friday and then Monday.  For the moment, all I will say is Monday and Tuesday look to be a repeat of Christmas, or darn close to it.  Just what we don't want to hear.  Not a 'given' just yet, but the rumblings are clearly there.  Let's get through the next day or so.


Snow showers in the forecast through Saturday, with a break Sunday, then snow cranking up before sunrise Monday lasting through Tuesday.  Today, nice to be above freezing for a few hours; the depressing note is that most of us won't see 32 degrees for the next 7 days, minimum.  Monday may nick it down low, but suffice it to say winter continues to add insult to injury.  All anyone can say is plan ahead.


Bob

Road Clearance

Larry will be here within the next hour or two to salt the road. Claire

SNOW: noon THU update

Spoke too soon...I had just posted what's below the hashed line and then saw where the GFS 8am run just came down: ACA is solidly upped to a 6-10" range, now the 3rd run in the last 4 with these higher amounts.  Will post this evening (7-ish?) once both models have updated from their 1pm runs...pretty sure these high amounts are factoring in what's coming Monday.  Yep, Monday....one of those carnival rides you wish you could get off of but can't!


------------------------------------------


Quick 12p update as I just plowed my 200' driveway...there is a definite icy bottom coat we did not have with the Christmas snow.  I've got 32 degrees in the shade, so hopefully my icy base will melt on its own so I can save my salt for tomorrow.  Have no idea what the roads are like, but may give my new chains a whirl on Staymon and as far as I need them on Apple Creek Road.


The NAM 8am run was in earlier, upping ACA into a 3-6" category (from an earlier 2-4"). Too, the NAM continues to increase the Smokies ridgeline totals in the 12-15" range.  Hmmmmmm...


Will update this evening for the final call.


bob

SNOW: 830a THU update

NOTE: Please check prior post for driving report Claire made for John early this morning.  2" of heavy wet snow with temps near the mid 20s makes for very slick conditions.  

------------------------------------
from Chris Martin @ 925a
34 degrees at his house @845a, but dark areas on road were still black ice...Cabes made it down slowly earlier, so use good judgment and don't assume icy patches are melted now...

-------------------------------------------------

2.2" at my place this morning, but the sun is coming out as I type and should make for beautiful pictures...the heavy wet snow really hangs nicely on any object, but it also creates slicker than normal conditions on the roads.  Claire will update for John per any plowing or salting, as we will quickly get another shot coming in tonight...this time on top of icier conditions.

Our unsettled and snowy pattern picks up again tonight, with both NAM and GFS slightly upping our game for a bit more snow to fall in this next shot.  For ACA, it looks like this for the next totals:

NAM: 2-4"

GFS:  3-5"

The GFS got hot and heavy in yesterday's afternoon and night run, putting us in a shuddering 8-10" band...that scaled back in the 1am run today, but is a little disconcerting it showed up in consecutive runs.  The NAM once again has the Smokies high peaks in a 12"+ range.


TIMING:  Any flakes later today should be after dark, and a model I like now prints out "likely" snow by 4am Friday through the morning....then just "chance" light snow, with another "likely hit" near midnight Friday into Saturday.


As always, I'll post with any update.  Will be taking my new best friend out for a spin shortly, my 36" bladed Manplow...and may add a colored 'update' toward the top of this post.


bob

Driving

John just successfully went down the hill however states do not go down unless absolutely necessary. He saw one truck in a ditch and said there is some ice on the roads. He does not know about plowing today as it is supposed to snow again tonight. I will update on the Blog as I know anything more. Be safe. Claire

SNOW this week: 7pm Wed update

Just a quick note, here...already over 1" of heavier, wet snow and coming down nicely.  Went out to sweep a path on the deck and noted that this type of snow may be slicker than normal.  The Christmas snow was light and fluffy, but this stuff has a higher water content, compacts into thick slush, and with temps dropping and no salt out there yet, could be a more slippery drive down or up here.  My driveway is white, but I've not ventured out...nor do I plan to!

The post prior to this one still stands, a (basically) 2-4" outlook for ACA for snow that falls tonight and again late Thursday night into Friday, with even colder temps moving in.

looking down onto my driveway at 645pm

Bob

SNOW this week: update Wed AM

Clouds have rolled in quickly this morning, and snow chances (albeit light) start later in the day.  We have a chance for seeing light accumulations tonight through Friday night as a couple of fronts, disturbances move through.  Though snow flurries/showers are possible anytime over the 48 hour period, the 'better' chances are tonight and then again on Friday...possibly a bit better chance for the latter.
  
At this time, a digital model I favor paints only 'chance' category and nothing in the 'likely' range, which is good news....to me, good news means road conditions I can negotiate with my front wheel drive without chains.  Now, any snow cover can make for tricky driving conditions, so not a slam dunk I can get around, but it beats a 10" outlook! 


Accumulations for the whole period have remained limited, though the NAM still favors twice the snow for the Smokies than the GFS is seeing.  However, both are lining up in agreement, at least within an inch, for storm totals for ACA:


NAM:  2-4"
GFS:    2-3"


I'll update with any changes if I see them late today.  There will be limited chances for more flurries and light snow showers Sunday into Monday as colder temperatures settle in.


bob

SNOW this week

Alright, I've got to speak about the forest instead of the trees.


My fairly fail-safe models I lean on have blinders: they give me a 5-day total snapshot, that's all.  Problem is, and it's a minor one, there are two small 'hits' where snow could lightly accumulate: late Wednesday into Thursday, and then Friday. As I talk about potential accumulations, I'm unable (right now) to give you a good idea time-wise of what falls when.  I do have a good glimpse of the bottom line, though.


So we have a couple of quick hitting fronts with limited moisture moving through the rest of this week, but we all know that very little snow can cause driving issues....so here's my snapshot for all events through Friday night...


Storm totals for ACA:
NAM: 3-5" 
GFS:  1-3"


Compared to the Christmas snow, small taters.  The NAM, as has been the case this winter, has taken the lead and been increasing amounts with model runs today, putting the Smokies bull's eye in the 10-12" range.  As you know, I pay attention to the high border totals because, as the crow flies, they're not that far from us, and a lot of us have basically northerly exposures, which means we are a bit connected to those accumulations, even if peripherally.


SOOoooooo....I'll give everything a good look over in the morning and put an update up sometime in the AM Wednesday.  Guess I'm glad any snows will fall on barren ground instead of old snow layers...that's a big help.


Bob

(click on pic to enlarge...sunrise near New Year's)

Happy New Year! Weather stuff...

(NOTE: occasionaly Blogger has editing issues...been having to correct all kinds of typo and spacing errors this morning, so if you see them just overlook 'em, please.)


Warm temps and rain over the past few days did a whammy on our snow to the point of it being only a memory.  I never posted amounts from the NWS, so here are a few select areas showing storm totals from the snow storm starting 12/25/10:

...HAYWOOD COUNTY...
   4 E WAYNESVILLE       16.0   800 AM 12/27                 
   8 SSE CANTON          16.0   900 AM 12/27               
   5 NW WAYNESVILLE      12.0   700 AM 12/27                 
   5 N LAKE JUNALUSKA    11.0   700 AM 12/27                
   2 SE WAYNESVILLE      10.0   730 AM 12/27                 
   1 ENE WAYNESVILLE      8.5   700 AM 12/27 

...BUNCOMBE COUNTY...
   6 NW LEICESTER        14.2   956 AM 12/27                 
   6 NNW ASHEVILLE       12.0   700 AM 12/27               
   4 N WEAVERVILLE       10.0   700 AM 12/27                 
   2 SE LEICESTER         8.0   830 AM 12/27                  
   3 WNW ARDEN            7.0   700 AM 12/27 

...GREAT SMOKIES...

   MT. LECONTE           22.0   800 AM 12/30

I gave the nod to the NAM model, though the GFS did come into 
agreement less than 24 hours before the storm started. If you listened 
to the TV weather folks Christmas Eve, you could have muted your 
set and probably heard me scream at them....they all followed the 
guidance from the NWS for just 1-3" for the mountains.  The NWS had 
changed their tune Thursday/Friday by lowering amounts to account 
for a growing coastal storm, before realizing the higher amounts 
were to  be the holiday fare both east AND west.  Plenty of unusual 
10-12" amounts in eastern NC from this storm, as well.

While there is only a smidgen of a mention for snow Wednesday 
night behind a moisture-starved cold front, it's interesting to note that
 the NAM has ACA in a 1-2" band and the GFS  has us up to 1".  Small 
taters in the greater scope of things, and not sure where the NAM is 
getting enough moisture for a couple of inches. I'll keep an eye on 
it, but I'll be sleeping with both eyes closed.

Happy New Year and wishing us all a healthful and prosperous 2011...
and limited snows!

bob