"Of Snow Chances and Flowers..."

Overnight Thursday into early Friday morning, don't be surprised to see some snow falling as temps could go just below freezing (unless there is an inversion higher up).  Only one of two models puts out any snow here, and it may well be for 5K feet and up peaks...but ACA is in a wash zone of 1" tops.  I expect zero road issues, and highs will go up well into the 40s Friday.  Sunny weekend ahead, that's good news...just not the warmest of days.

Nice to see some of the early wildflowers coming up.  Sticking a few of my pics on here to remind us this cold, wet, gloom will soon be gone (famous last words!)...pics should enlarge if you click on them, though Blogger can be an odd duck sometimes.

Hepatica

Spring Beauty

Trout Lilly

 Bloodroot starting to open

Music to my ears....

If you don't already know, Apple Creek Acres is home to a musician known far and wide in our region...just a few weeks ago I was driving to Charlotte and was listening to WNCW and, lo and behold, on comes our own Lorraine Connard.


Just giving you a heads up, Thursday March 17, if you're around and want a diversion from the fraughts of the world, Lorraine's trio will be playing from 5:30pm to 8:30pm at TIPPING POINT TAVERN on Main Street in Waynesville. Just a little tip o' th' Irish hat to Lorraine, reputed to be wearing a Leprechaunish jacket, but NOT made from actual Leprechauns....reckon you'll have to see it for yourself!


bob

Incoming storm: a closer look

(Snow update in RED below)


Heavy rains are again heading our way Wednesday into Thursday, this on top of already heavy rains having done a whammy in parts of ACA.  If you see or know of a particular 'dam' where debris forces water into the roads, it would be a great idea to quickly dig a big channel through it.  Expect debris and gravel to come out into parts of the road, which is perfectly slippery in it's own right for those of the lead-foot variety.  Staymon Road in particular is vying for a new record on how horrible it can become in the shortest amount of time.  The following graphic is fresh from the GSP weather office:

(click to enlarge - small red asterisk is ACA)

Two additional problems come on the tail end.  Models still pushing a little snow for ACA Thursday night, still  the 0-1" variety, although repeating its 'correct' Sunday forecast the NAM is pushing 6-8" in the Smokies, with 2-3" very close to ACA.  GFS model doesn't 'see' that, at this point, and is staying 0-1". TUESDAY 2pm update:  We got 2" last Sunday, and could see the same thing again...onset  will be Thursday night and tail off just after daybreak Friday, perfectly timed to potentially cause issues for the morning drive. NAM still going 6-9" in the Smokies with 3-4" close to ACA...GFS has ACA in the 1-2" range, but no big bullseye in the Smokies.


On top of that barrel of fun is the return of strong gusty winds into Friday...as wet as soils are, weaker trees will find it easier to topple, so power outages may be on our plate, as well.


Which leads me to another important piece of info: when your power goes out, call PROGRESS ENERGY at 1-800-419-6356 and follow the automated steps (add it to your cell phone contact list).  Too, since I use a laptop and Verizon air-card, I can later check their website to see the status and scope of the outage at THIS SITE.  P.E. puts up color-coded triangles that when you mouse over them give you outage details and anticipated time of restoration.  It's an interactive map that you can zoom in and fly around...VERY handy and informative.


I'm on weather duty in Charlotte for a few days, so any info anyone has is appreciated...just use the comment form below.


Bob

Minor snow chance Thursday afternoon

I'm jumping ahead of the National Weather Service, but my models indicate another 0-1" of snow potential as the next rain system leaves Thursday afternoon and cold air moves in for the night right behind it.  I don't anticipate anything on the order of what we had Sunday, so just tossing the dog a bone for now. All in the timing of the arrival of the colder air as lows will be heading into the mid 20s early Friday morning.


As March wears on, the sun climbs higher and temperatures are able to rebound more quickly.  Currently there is nothing that cold in the forecast for the next week ahead.  Suits me fine.


Bob

Early Sunday afternoon clearing 3-06-11 (click to enlarge)

Snowing...ugh

10am UPDATE:  Heavy wet snow is now accumulating and my driveway is white.  Temperature has notched down to 33 degrees, and I've phoned the NWS office in Greer.  We are now in a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for 1-2" of snow this AM, before rain mixing in after noon.  Could be higher as fast as this is accumulating.  ACA roads definitely slick from the heavy slush...hopefully air temps stay above 32 this morning.


Don't know what else to add since this cold layer is in way ahead of all models, so this is a bit of "now-casting" and simply watching current conditions.  There is nothing to offer you wording wise from the NWS...it's catching them off-guard.  Heck, catching all of us off-guard.  


Feel free to add your road/condition reports here in the comments section.  Thanks!


Bob

Minor snowfall Sunday evening

After a weekend of showers ahead, cold air comes in behind the rains perfectly timed after dark Sunday.  The last of the showers may well turn to snow as temps fall below freezing later on Sunday night, and my pick models are pushing 0-1" of accumulation for ACA and TN border areas.


The precipitation will be light and be done well before sunrise Monday, which will have lows near the mid 20s.  The air and ground temperatures will be above freezing until the colder air moves in, so the re-radiating warmth from the ground would help melt anything trying to stick.  I foresee zero issues for us.


SOOoooooo, a mole hill of a weather event, for sure....but wanted to post info just to be safe.