Tuesday 4AM

Round 1 has left us with no snow, but Round 2 will develop through today and tonight.  The NWS has us under a winter weather advisory for 1-3" possible, with the highest amounts at the higher elevations.

CAUTION!  My temp is 30 degrees, and I walked out on the deck and probably set off the seismograph in Asheville as I fell hard due to a glazing of ice on all surfaces.  Be very very careful stepping out.

At the moment the radar is pretty empty, though a lot of the incoming snow clouds will be low in altitude and not show up well.  I'll post updates as needed today.

bob

Monday AM UPDATE:

Hitting the road shortly back to ACA, but wanted to update what we can expect weather-wise in ACA.  What's complicating the potential snow forecast is the timing of the cold air arrival with the last of the heavier rainfall overnight TONIGHT. Plenty of rain yet to come to ACA, but the updated model still has enough cold air to make Tuesday morning an issue.  Snow onset will be in the overnight hours, and should be going nicely by midnight. 

There is a kinda-sorta second part of this storm that will continue to keep snow in the forecast for the Tuesday evening and overnight hours.  Potentially more road issues, Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.

NAM run for early this morning is holding tight to 2-5" around ACA.  The latest GFS run isn't done yet, but it's consistently been at 1" tops.  The NWS is talking of only light accumulations (1") above 4-5K feet at this time...but I also just now saw where winter storm watches are posted for the areas in MS and TN I wrote in the prior post.  Their NWS offices weren't discussing snow when the NAM was peppering them with lots of snow, so it may well be our 'light looking' forecast might lean a tad more towards the NAM later today. (click pic to enlarge)

NAM early Monday run

For now, I am going to stick with my up to 3" for the top of ACA, and 1" for the bottom of ACA for a storm total.  Road issues should develop before sunrise tomorrow, Tuesday.  My best guess, for now.

Bob

Snow update

I'm here in Charlotte pulling the AM shift, and culling over the latest snow forecasts.  National Weather Service isn't mentioning much of anything at the moment, but while flip-floppy and a tad erratic, the NAM continues to put ACA in a 2-3" range, with the GFS around 1", maybe 2" up high here.  Heck, the NAM continues to show quite the quick hitting winter storm in northern MS, southern TN, and NW AL with hefty snow amounts.  However, the NWS there is saying ground temp and air temps will be too warm for much accumulation if any...I dunno 'bout that one...

One factor limiting accumulations here will be how much rain mixes in with the snow onset around midnight Monday, when the precipitation will be heaviest.  The chance of snow stays around all of Tuesday and Tuesday night, though moisture becomes more and more limited.  Seems to me it's reasonable to say 1" down low and 3" up high in ACA at this time, though I'll update either late today or early Monday AM.  Those accumulations would be for when all is said and done.

One can argue 2" of snow isn't anything, but even 1/2" on Apple Creek Road can be a huge travel problem, hence being concerned.  Especially starting with rain, then temps freeze, icy bottom layers to snow become a bigger concern.

NAM early SUNDAY map

GFS early SUNDAY map

Bob

Heads up....

Early next week just might be our first accumulating snowfall in ACA.  Breezy and rainy conditions will move in Sunday through Monday, with colder air coming in later on Monday.

If there is going to be a problem, it will develop Monday night (though snow might mix in with rain late in the day) and go into Tuesday as goodly amounts of moisture potentially will wrap around the low moving into the NE.  The most preliminary of 'looks' in my favored models paint a crazy amount of snow for ACA, which would be silly to buy into this early...but when the NAM starts spitting out 5-8" right over us, I can't ignore it.  The GFS is gentler in the 1-3" range, but both are showing the white stuff.

So for now, just putting it out there and you'd do well to keep checking back as that time frame approaches. If you have not already done so, you might like to read my October post on how I/we handle snow issues in ACA: click HERE.


bob

"Boomers..."

The post prior to this is for the Damon's lost cat "Bootsie"...please read if you haven't done so already.  I referred to 'boomers' in a comment on that post, and since I recently got some cute pics of one taunting Molly, figured I'd post 'em here.  Old timers in the mountains have called these little Red Squirrels 'boomers' ever since I can remember.  They are mainly higher elevation squirrels, and cross over very little with lower elevation Gray Squirrels.  I'm at 3775' and only this summer did the first Gray in 3 years show up here...Boomers abound, as do Chipmunks.

Click on pics to enlarge...keep in mind between my lens and the boomer was Molly, knowing she didn't have the speed to actually catch the furry critter.

 

 

 

FOR SCALE, NOTE BOOMER ON TOP CORNER OF THE ROCKING CHAIR

Bob

Lost Cat in ACA

The Damons on Apple Creek Road have recently lost their cat and are asking for any information anyone may have per sightings, noises, etc.  Their flyers are posted around, as well.    Bob

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Bootsie is a medium-sized, shorthaired Gray Tabby w/ Black Stripes, Green Eyes, and White Boots last seen wearing a black collar with a green tag and has a shaved belly (spay surgery).    She's generally friendly but may run from strangers. Last seen: November 1, 11pm on Apple Creek Rd

Call day or night: (703) 568-9302 if you spot our Bootsie or if you have heard cats fighting recently, caterwauling, or meowing.