NWS Adjustments

The NWS JUST canceled our Winter Storm Warning and replaced it with a Winter Weather Advisory for those above 3500' and canceled the Advisory for lower elevations.

All for good reason.  It's 630p and the temp only just now dropped to 34 at my house.  Plenty of snow mixing in with rain, but just too warm too late...looking like the GFS model DID win out after all, but still a tad too soon to tell.  Precipitation here will be dwindling from here on out.

So, yes, some light accumulation may take place, and temps tonight will go well into the 20s to make for icy stuff...but looks like we dodged a bullet and the good ol' GFS model which the NWS abandoned early today won out after all, predicting the effective warm nose in place today.

Suits me fine.  I have work to do!

Bob

SNOW UPDATE: Sunday AM

First, no I am not normally up at this hour, but went to bed early and the ol' brain is busy being creative!  Things looking very interesting indeed for today's weather...in fact, between the two major models, it's fair to say the proverbial gauntlet has been thrown down...

(updated at 4:45a)  ACA/Haywood County is now under a Winter Storm Warning effective through midnight tonight for 2-4" of snow above 3500' elevations.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for lower elevations for lesser accumulations but a protracted period of rain mixing with sleet and snow this afternoon.  The potential for slick roads and dangerous travel conditions goes without saying, especially as the afternoon wears on into evening.

The 'givens': this is a bugger of a storm for the northern NC mountains, Triad, and portions of the central Piedmont.  Our precipitation chances here in ACA fall off rapidly tonight before midnight. The temperature continues on a very very slow drop (it's 40 as I type at 330a), and accumulating snow can begin falling with an air temp above 32.  Some sleet will likely mix in with light rain this morning, too.  The significant snows will fall above 3500' in elevation starting this afternoon, which is our 'blue roof'/Moskos family home.  Should be a heavier, snow, which could stack up quickly.  Slippery, slushy roads go without saying as a viable hazard as the afternoon wears on.

This year we've have 4 very light snows of <1", one of 2.5", and one of an estimated 1-1.5" last weekend, which the winds kindly blew away off the roads.  The two models, GFS and NAM, have not disagreed much this season, with the GFS being favored by the National Weather Service.  

However, looking at the latest runs from last night, they are quite apart in snow totals.  GFS: 1"   NAM: 3-4".  In essence, the GFS says the cold will be delayed and snow minimal around and west of Asheville, with the heavy stuff still where both agree it to fall well N and NE of us.  A snow void, of sorts, it predicts.  The NAM peppers pretty much the NC/TN border with 3-6"  up, again, for just the higher elevations.

(click pics to enlarge; "X" is ACA) 

NAM 8p Saturday Run

GFS 8pm Saturday run

Good news is no bitter cold snap follows....should go above 32 Monday, however should we get a good snowpack, albedo will keep shaded areas colder.  Will update later this morning as necessary.

Bob

Sunday snow?

As I write, ACA is not under even a winter weather advisory, though I expect that to change either tonight or early Sunday.  NE of Asheville, from the Black Mountains north into VA, there is already a Winter Storm Warning for 3-5".  The GFS has us at only 1", with the much larger snow north. the NAM as us 1-3" by the time all is said and done.

Temps only slowly drop all night, in the upper 30s by Sunday morning...and temps then slowly drop through the day.  Precip will cross over to a wintry mix, ultimately over to all snow in the afternoon, with temps closing in on freezing by late afternoon.  In that scenario, even though we start 'warm' here in ACA, snow could fall hard enough to accumulate regardless, and make for potentially poor travel conditions by late afternoon.  Snow chances continue into the night hours, but really tail off after midnight.

(click on pics to enlarge; ACA is "X"" )

 

GFS 1p Sat run

NAM 1p Sat run

 I'll look things over in the morning and update as necessary.

Bob

Music tonight: short notice

Not my usual post, but here in ACA we have a talented musician, Lorraine Conard, as many of you already know....she and a couple of others are playing this evening in downtown Waynesville at the Classic Winesellar from 7p-10p.

A recent email from Lorraine has a free song download you might like, as well:  CLICK HERE

I will possibly post tomorrow, Saturday, if the overnight weather situation into Sunday looks dicey.  Bottom line at this point is that temps are marginal to begin with, and do warm above freezing Sunday...like the last time, give it a few hours and it's all a melted history.  Heading to TN shortly after 7a, so any weather update won't be until closer to supper time Saturday, FYI.

bob

Wintry Mix after midnight....

Haywood County was an afternoon add-on to the Winter Weather Advisory posted earlier, which is in effect for the southern NC mountains, effective from midnight tonight through noon Tuesday.  We are on the northern fringe of the wintry precipitation shield, and I guess they added us in for good measure.

After midnight, some light snow will develop, with morning lows around the mid 20s.  The problem lies in the warmer air aloft that slides in before sunrise, mixing in sleet and freezing rain. Although it should be all rain by around 10am, it could be a slippery mess before then here on Apple Creek Road. 

Snow isn't the issue...models have us 1" tops, but  I imagine the other precip forms knock any accumulation back down.  The big concern will be ice, the Great Equalizer, so use extreme caution driving Apple Creek Road during the advisory period .

Bob

Sunday: Follow-up

Writing this mainly for those out of town...if you're here on the mountain, you know all or most of this!  :-)

Saturday's winds were some of the strongest and longest lasting I've seen in a while, and were most effective at keeping accumulating snow whirling around and minimal.  Easily had gusts in the 40+ mph range.  My estimate at my house was 1-1.5" of snow total, but between some sun breaks earlier in the day, those winds and some sublimation, there is pretty much a heavy dusting to light drifts left this AM.  My untreated driveway is black, and Apple Creek Road looks pretty good through the trees, so we dodged an expense there. No idea if any trees came down anywhere on the road, though.

Saturday morning it was 29.  By 5pm it was 19 and dropping.  Wind chills easily hit -15 degrees here, maybe more up towards the more exposed top of ACA.  This morning it is but 5 degrees, calm for now. Winds will pick up again today, but should not be as strong as yesterday's, gusting to 30 mph, tops.

There is another lesser period of snow and freezing rain possible from midnight into Tuesday morning, but I'll post something here IF it is a travel concern.  Otherwise assume it's inconsequential to getting up and down the mountain.

Snow totals reported to GSP weather office:
Waynesville............2"
Mt. Mitchell............6"
Sam's Gap.............9"
Candler.................3"
Beech Mt...............6"
Oconaluftee...........1"

Bob

UPDATE: Saturday 7:40 AM

2:30p: Down to 19, with the wind blowing away most of the new snow. Asheville airport had gusts to 43mph at 1p, for those with inquiring minds.  I anticipate little accumulation as TN returns are diminishing, and winds continuing.

12 noon: LOVIN' the sun and breaks, as my driveway is now clear and Apple Creek Road looks black from my house.  29 degrees, so colder air not here yet.  Still precip in TN to come this way, but this is great news except for those wanting accumulating snow.

We've been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning in Haywood County, for 4-6" above 3500 feet approximate to the TN border.  The snow here has been very slow to turn 'on' but for what little has fallen so far, my driveway is solid white.  Temp is only 29 at the moment, and I was expecting it to be a handful colder...but that's all coming our way all too soon.

The warning is in effect through 6am Sunday, and those temps will fall as the day wears on, into single digits before sunrise.  Already some whippy winds out there, but wind chills could go below zero by 5p or so, and deepen overnight with winds gusting between 40 and 50 mph....rather significant.

Here in ACA, even with the warning amounts, we're far enough from the border that I'll stick with my earlier call for less accumulation in the 1-2.5" range (entrance to top), reduced even more by the winds already blowing out there.  Given the duration of potential snowfall, if Apple Creek Road will be treated it won't be until much later today, if not early Sunday morning.  Just guessing as I've not heard anything to that effect, but as I wrote earlier it would be a bit wasteful to treat before then. Anticipate slick roads if you must travel to and from ACA.

I'll update as necessary.

Bob

5:15p UPDATE: incoming snow

If I tried to amend this morning's post it would be a little messy, so read this one over and then glean other info from the prior post.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been hoisted for Haywood County from midnight tonight through 6am SUNDAY...yep, Sunday, not Saturday.  The continuous trend has been for an even more protracted NW upslope snow event through Saturday, with breaks here and there.  Closer to the TN border, 3-6" amounts will be possible, though the 3-4" part would be most prominent.  While that's not really ACA, we're awful close...if the inflow sets up in a west to east flow, it will limit totals; if it sets up NW to SE, we can get more.  HOWEVER, the winds will be whipping and blowing the snow, which in itself can cut down on totals.

Bitter wind chills will make Saturday especially raw, with temps falling from the 20s in the morning to teens in the afternoon, with those snow showers continuing. My earlier post had 1" low to 2.5" up high for ACA, but new data won't be in for a couple of more hours to see if there is a shift.  Sunday morning lows could well be in the single digits, and don't look for the 32 degree mark until Monday afternoon.

ROADS:  Jan Woodlief (new president) is aware of the situation, of course; but given the nature of this episode, it will be a waste of money to do any road treatment until we see an end to the bulk of the activity.  If you must get out and down or up the mountain, you know the drill; just know that the roads will be slick and untreated until some time later Saturday (I'll post that information here as I receive it).

bob

Snow discussion for tonight through Saturday

Well, we all knew it was a matter of time before we got some very cold air and more snow chances.  I will update this later this afternoon as there is still a lack of agreement in models, but I've got ACA in a range from 1" - 2.5" of snow (lower amounts low, higher up high, of course).  Closer to the TN border they'll get 3-4", a typical NW upslope event.  NOTE: winds will become very strong, so while the wind chills will be bitter, it could help keep accumulations lower than forecast simply because it will be blown around so much.

With that said, The GFS 1p Thursday run put a bull's eye over ACA of 8" (!)....there will be those occasional runs (there is one every 6 hours) that go wild then tame back down, but it makes me muse what it 'saw' to come up with that...it since backed down to a solid 2" for us, and the 1am run just came in at 2" with 3" as close as Sylva and the Plott Balsams.

Timing: some rain is possible later this afternoon, but by supper/darkfall, it should switch over to light snow.  There looks to be a more pronounced but short period of heavier snow close to midnight, then 'chance' snow lasting through most of Saturday.  NOTE: Saturday 7am temp will be in the mid-upper 20s, but by 5pm it will be roughly 10 degrees colder, so prepare for temps crashing through the day.

Whatever falls stays...we won't see 32 degrees again until Monday.  Sunday morning lows should easily be in the single digits.  However, like virtually every other cold snap this season, the really cold stuff is staying about 48 hours before before warming back up.  While we could hit 50 degrees by Wednesday, Monday night into early Tuesday morning could see one more very light hit of snow, but the bigger concern is for the overnight hours into Saturday.

Per roads: A letter to the membership was recently mailed out by the former board.  A subsequent letter will go out hopefully by tomorrow (weather permitting) from the new sitting president Jan Woodleaf.  Road care (and life in general here in ACA) will continue as it has, with no lapse in attention and treatment.  Given the extended potential periodic snowfall, albeit blown around, any salting (not necessarily plowing) may not take place until into the daylight hours Saturday due to logistics.  Anyone traveling our roads after midnight through the morning hours is urged to use typical caution given the untreated roads during that time.

Again, I'll update with any fine-tuning needed later this afternoon.

Bob