Storm Wrap-Up and SNOW...

(Sun a.m. updates in RED)

Wow.  Not just a word for here in ACA but simply the far-reaching devastation of this last storm system.  While the winds at my house in ACA were worse Wednesday night than last night, it was still a mess-maker and a home-wrecker here.  Before I get to the snow discussion, passing on some preliminary facts that I, as a meteorologist, find jaw-dropping:

In all of February in the U.S., 189 tornado warnings were issued.  For March, by 10p Friday night (3/2), the National Weather Service had already issued 269 tornado warnings.

Preliminary count for 'severe' storm reports made to the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK for Friday 3/2 (these numbers will be adjusted later today):

101 tornado reports

281 hail reports

442 wind reports

(824 TOTAL reports)

Below are two radar grabs I made of the late-morning tornadoes kicking up in northern AL...the tornado shafts are the semi-cylindrical shapes trailing off the edge of the storms (click to enlarge):

FUNNEL NEAR HARVEST, AL ~11am 3/2/12

FUNNEL NEAR NEW MARKET, AL ~11:10am  3/2/12

Now to the talk of SNOW. A flurry here, there, and yon is possible later this evening...any incoming clouds early this morning are truly flying under the radar beam as what light snow I saw fall early this morning was not on the radar.  Looks like from about midnight Sunday through the morning commute Monday there will be a stronger push of moisture and chance for light accumulating snow here.  Both the NAM and GFS are currently painting a dusting to 2" in the higher elevations.

HOWEVER....winds are supposed to continuing to be pretty gusty even overnight, which always helps to limit any accumulations.  I'm heading out of town today, so I won't be here to see things for myself, should something fall; just use your good ol' common mountain sense as you head out in the morning in case there are any icy/slick spots, especially on curves.

Bob

TORNADO WATCH, FYI....

We're under a Tornado Watch until 11pm.  The radar grab says it all...I widened out the warning window to show you the myriad severe thunderstorm warnings (in RED) and tornado warnings (in HOT PINK), all moving ENE in front of the actual cold front boundary.  This day will more than likely go in the record books, one way or the other...

(click on pic to enlarge)

bob

Severe potential FRIDAY NIGHT...and SNOW???

(updated info in RED)

Wednesday was my long travel day from Charlotte to Erwin, TN to ACA, and got back in time to partake in our windy maelstrom, or I would have posted the storm threat in advance....eeegads what a mess it made of things.

SEVERE risk 3/2 8am through 3/3 8am

We're doing it all again Friday. Above is the 'risk' threat from 8a FRI to 8a SAT from the National Weather Service (new map). The potential for severe thunderstorms will come in two stages: the first will be simple instability and individual large storm cells that could be severe, mainly from winds closing in on 60mph but also large hail (the Upstate got it's first warning at 5:45a as I am typing).  The more problematic will be the last part which should get here in a squall line like Wednesday night, the timing of which will be later tonight.  

While mountain tornadoes are rare, I expect to see rotation to be a concern, and possibly another tornado watch for ACA.  Any weakened trees could easily come down, of course, so heads up on the roads.

There is really nothing you can do except prepare for action in the case of emergency: at the very least, have flashlights and candles handy for emergency light as the power has a good chance of going out again.  I have Progress Energy on my cell phone and report outages immediately...they lost a lot of lines last night due to trees falling on powerlines and transformers.  Actually, I'll be pleasantly surprised if we don't lose power Friday night.

Now....to bring in the new kid on the block in this post:  SNOW.  No doubt this front is bringing with it much colder air that gets in here Sunday. Starting Sunday, even with the temp well above 32 degrees, some snow may fall; as it gets later in the day, temps fall to and below freezing, with snow chances continuing all night through Monday morning. At this moment, the NAM is saying a dusting to 1" for ACA, with the GFS saying 1-2".  I'll let this sit for now and address it Saturday evening.  Good news is that whatever falls, it won't stay long as temps start warming back up Tuesday.

bob