Storm data update

Just passing along some reports from the National Weather Service. The TN/NC border did get hammered, but rapid 

fall-off in accumulations.  Enjoy the  warm up ahead! 

(kinda sorta...)  Blogger is being recalcitrant this morning, and I can't get the words/fonts to behave.  C'est la guerre at times with this site!

NORTH CAROLINA

...AVERY COUNTY...
   ELK PARK              14.0   142 PM 10/30  COUNTY OFFICIAL
   FLAT SPRINGS           9.8   700 PM 10/30  1 INCH PAST 6 HOURS

...BUNCOMBE COUNTY...
   WEAVERVILLE            5.0  1200 PM 10/30  2720 FEET ELEVATION.
   4 NE ASHEVILLE         3.0   700 PM 10/30  TOWN MTN RD AT PARKWAY.
   FAIRVIEW               2.0   300 PM 10/30  3200 FT ELE. SOME -FZRA

...HAYWOOD COUNTY...     24.0    (PULLED FROM EARLIER REPORT)

   COVE CREEK

...MADISON COUNTY...
   3 NNW FAUST           13.0   100 AM 10/31  SAMS GAP. 8-13 INCHES

...MITCHELL COUNTY...
   BAKERSVILLE            5.5   100 PM 10/30  PUBLIC

...SWAIN COUNTY...
   NEWFOUND GAP          22.0  1230 PM 10/30  NWS OFFICE
   BRYSON CITY              T  1256 PM 10/30  LOCAL POLICE

...TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY...
   3 ESE CRUSO            5.0  1223 PM 10/30  PUBLIC

WHEW....

Up to 36 degrees, so should not be any road issues, if there were any to begin with.  Snow staying NE.  Smokies DID get 18" of snow, but heavy totals limited to thin band on the TN/NC line.  Only up to 3-4" in neighboring areas.  And we kept our power on the whole time, probably the most amazing aspect of our little wintry hit. For my youngest rescue pup @10 months old, this was her first measurable snow and she is happy as a clam,  Heck, the way it's all turned out, I'M happy as a clam!  Now that I've said that, why is it we refer to clams as happy?  Hmmmm.....

Maisy before her first snow....

bob

Tuesday AM update

So far so good, all things considered.  Still moisture upstream to head this way as blowing snow, but looks like the GFS won ACA's first round of wintry weather with it's low-side prediction.  Moskos family reported no snow/ice at the blue roof house, but I've got something close to 2" here at the end of Staymon.  My driveway has a lot of the snow blown off, but there is a VERY slick icy layer under the thinnish white veil, along with icy leaves.  Al Rose reported the road is clear to the top, and they were at 29 degrees.

9a update:  looks like any appreciable snowfall still to come will stay just NE of us.  at 7am there were several places with 3-4" of snow, but no more than that...still holds
11:20am update:  Well, I'll be...the Smokies did get whammied!  18" at Newfound Gap, 17" at Mt. LeConte

9am view NE toward Junaluska

745 AM Tuesday

My big maple just a week ago!

Amazed that the power has stayed on (knock on wood)...and the core of colder air simply hasn't gotten here, either.  I was at 31 all night, no mid 20s.


Feel free to add any info in the comment section or email me and I'll put it in.  I'll also add some photos in to this post shortly, as well as data updates that y'all might find interesting.  Watching news reports what has happened in the NE...eeeegads.

bob

Monday AM UPDATE and VOTING

Up on Staymon the temp had been sitting at 32 degrees for a long time, with almost 1/2" of snow.  The heaviest snowfall will occur this evening and through sunrise Tuesday, with lessening chances thereafter... Sandy has now made the left hook and heading to the Jersey Shore for a landfall after midnight.

The GFS run from early this morning hasn't come down yet, but last night it had ACA in a 2-5" range.  The NAM still has ACA in a very tightly banded 4-10" range within a distance of only 4-5 miles, with 18"+ at places like Max Patch, Mount Sterling, etc.

I'm actually heading out shortly as I need to go to the early voting site since I won't be here Tuesday.  If you'd like to vote early, a location is quite close by. Turn right at the end of Mauney Cove Road and as you get close to the crest of the hill, you can't miss it on the right (Senior Resource Center), thanks to the boatload of political signs.  It's open this week 830a to 5p, unless weather gets bad down low.  You can also vote early at the Canton Public Library.

Bob

Sunday 4pm UPDATE

(6p update with graphics, in blue)

This is the third post per wintry weather thanks to Hurricane Sandy's path.  Check the other two posts for background info.  Significant changes per timing and precipitation to follow.

First, and no surprise, the National Weather Service has posted several warnings for us here in ACA.  You can read about the details HERE.  All warnings in effect from midnight tonight through 6am Wednesday.   It's unusual, serious stuff that impacts us over days:

Winter Storm Warning

Freeze Warning

High Wind Warning

The NAM 12Z run printed several hours later, hence my later posting of these graphics. Of course, the winds will be whipping the snow all around, making actual accumulations very hard to nail down.  But I'm putting the 12Z runs (8am EDT) in below.  The GFS still keeps us only in a roughly 2" window, but the NAM has us in a 6-12" band, tightly gradated.  FYI, it takes a good 5 hours or more for a run to become graphically manipulated, hence the delay:

(CLICK PICS TO ENLARGE)

12Z GFS Sunday AM

12Z NAM Sunday AM

CHANGES:  The magic 32 degree temp has been upped to get here shortly after midnight. I've been 40 most of the day, now at 36 at 6pm.  Precip now goes to almost all snow at that point, and a much smaller window of any rain mixing in Monday noon-ish, early afternoon. Personally, I'm comfortable with the NWS storm total of 5-8" scenario, but deep down, if you want to call me on it, I do think more than that is pretty likely.

Below is the latest path and timing update of Sandy...still holding to a hard north hook up into Canada, but this storm is expansive.  I feel the GFS has underdone this winter storm for us, and the NAM has been a little too hot and heavy. As Sandy's remnants start moving north, our weather calms down and improves. The answer is in the middle, so hunker down.  I made my grocery run earlier so my pups won't mutiny on me!  

SANDY 2p Sunday run

Bob

Sunday AM Snow Update

First, this is a follow up post to yesterday's entry, if you want to pick up more background info.

Long story short, the GFS may be missing something (though I would love for it to be spot on!), and the NAM is seeing something else entirely...there is no doubt that where the circulation of Sandy travels once inland, will make a mountain of difference in any snow here in ACA.  When you enlarge the NAM graphic, if it were to verify, it would equal our 18" that dumped a week before Christmas in 2009 (I think?)...I remember it clearly as one of these graphic data sets showed 16-18" one day before it hit.  I was in Lowe's picking up some things, the clerk asked about the snow chances as they were calling for 4-8", and I quipped I saw one model put down over a foot for us...and, voila.  I got stuck at the end of Staymon for 6 days, and it was largely the impetus of my starting this blog.

I will also say that as long as I've analyzed snow forecasts for western NC, I have not seen such a large difference in amounts between these two models.  GFS still holds a 1", maybe 2" for us, and the NAM has 16"-20" VERY close by:

(click on pics to enlarge)

2AM Sunday GFS

2AM Sunday NAM

Light rain is possible overnight tonight...and that magical 32 degree temp should be here around 7a Monday, when any precip should be snow.  There is a possibility that rain will mix back in mid day Monday, but by supper time Monday another favored model has us in 'definite' or 'likely' snow categories through Tuesday.  Stands to reason that will potentially be our real travel trouble time. More than likely I'll update later this afternoon...it really is all about Sandy at this point.

Bob

A Little White With Our Fall Color?...

All good ponies have to go back to the barn at some point...we've trail-ridden some spoiling weather of late, and it's coming to a crashing halt. While Sunday will be a much cooler day, the big changes start coming in Sunday night into a Monday morning well below freezing...and we may well not see 40 degrees until Thursday.  Add to that some strong winds that will blow at or above 20 mph most of the time between Sunday evening and Tuesday night, and you've got some very uncomfortable conditions, not withstanding the chance for trees to come down and power outages.  Just a friendly heads up for that...

Now, that ol' "S" word.  There is no doubt the West Virginia Highlands will bring home the bacon with a forecast in the 2' to 4' range (yep, FEET)...possibly more in places with just the right exposure and orientation.  Just how far down the Appalachian spine does the snow fall is the big question.  The whole event will be an upslope flow from the NW out of TN, and with stiff winds any accumulations get knocked around.  Ah, but what about here around ACA?   Boone's chances for accumulating snow are much higher as they are closer to the action...but "Sandy" is an expansive tropical system, and the precipitation will wheel around at great distances.

Every year I repeat the following info, for those new to here or this blog:
----------------

To save you from going back to old blog entries, and for the newer readers, I wanted to pass along how I keep abreast of potential winter weather. I've been a broadcast meteorologist for over 20 years, and still fill in at my former station in Charlotte on a regular basis. To listen to WLOS or the radio or read a generic website will often give very incomplete, non-specific information, if not misleading and/or incorrect.  When I post here, it is specific to Apple Creek Acres, our general N/NE exposure, and attention to our elevations which start at ~2880' at the entrance to ~3900' at the top.

The Moskos family lives in what most of us refer to as the 'blue roof' house, and that's important because they are pretty much at 3500'....ask anyone here, a LOT often happens at that elevation per winter weather problems.  You'll see me talk of issues above or below that location often. I rely a lot on a particular pair of forecast models that have 'runs' x4 per day...both have biases, so it is interesting to watch as to which best handles the event.  There is the NAM (North American Mesoscale) and the GFS (Global Forecast System).  I get and post here some of those graphics as they relate to a developing situation.

---------------
At this time, and I've been watching the runs since Friday when I was at work, and it will be interesting to see which one 'wins' or is more accurate.  The GFS has only a dusting for ACA, 1" or less...while the NAM on the low side has had us 2"-4", and one run 4" to 6".  Clearly the two are far, far apart in how to handle this system.

The trickier part is that this is not our normal snow scenario...an upslope flow is normal, but not to this length and with this much wind.  Even if the NAM were to be correct and we got a decent accumulation, you can't consider plowing, etc. until it's all done, which will be a drawn out process.  The precipitation may be mixed with rain early on Sunday evening, so just be prepared for travel/road issues, which I hope we don't have to put up with just yet.

Looking at the latest forecast path for "Sandy's" circulation, I want to hedge with the GFS.  I think snow will fly, but I don't anticipate driving issues for us.  Currently the path is to come ashore along the southern Jersey Shore late Monday night, head inland and then north to the eastern Great Lakes and into Canada...earlier models had that low heading to Ohio and slowing down, which would send more precip this way...and maybe what the NAM was seeing.

As always, I'll post updates as the time approaches...otherwise, you'd better believe I'm doing all the sanding and carport work I can today and tomorrow!

Bob

Some bear news, non-ACA...

I'm sitting here in Charlotte getting ready to go into work, and have police and news helicopters and scads of emergency vehicles on-scene one subdivision over..a construction/trench rescue, I think.  Anyhow, in searching for the breaking news, I ran across an article that is worthy of FYI.  For many reasons, bears in our region are on the move and having more encounters with two-leggeds.

For the first time in at least five years, camping has been closed in the Shining Rock Wilderness area and Graveyard Fields, two very popular destinations just off the Blue Ridge Parkway.  There have been seven recent bear encounters with campers in those areas, the latest just last Monday when a tent and food bag were torn up.  No one was injured, thankfully, though you can imagine the two people inside the tent have quite a story to tell.  Those areas are open for daytime use, but overnight camping has been suspended until further notice.

Looking forward to getting back to ACA in a few days...crazy work schedule of late.  I did phone in the elk report to the wildlife officers at the Smokies...seems like lots of critters have on their travelin' shoes these days.  :-)

Bob