ACA Drone Footage

Sharon and Adam Baron wanted to share some beautiful drone footage that in part includes ACA in all of its fall splendor - Check it out HERE!

Bob

My New Best Friend?...

 11:30pm 10-24-15

Happy Fall, y'all.  Seasons are changing, though not by temperature standards.  In the past couple of weeks, there have been a lot of inversions with 6am temps in the low 50s at the end of Staymon but mid 30's in the valleys.  55 as I type, in fact. Nice color here and there, and leaves falling left and right...and myriad visits by my new best friend.

The past year I've identified three different bears that have paid me visits overnight, sometimes several times a night.  Everyone asks me if I've give them names, but I just refer to them much like Goldilocks did: Papa bear, Mama bear, and Baby (more like Yearling) Bear. Haven't seen the massive Papa Bear in about 9 months, and about 3 months since I've seen sizeable Mama Bear. Above is the youngest and smallest of my bears, and just since last Sunday has come to (and sometimes on) my deck eight times, but only at night.  He knows from experience I keep bird seed in a rather large, locked storage shed, now booby-trapped with noise-making items should it venture that far given the din of barking dogs inside.

It means no harm, and I've gotten to where I like this fellow, gal, whatever. I'm not about to sex it.  Yes, uninterrupted sleep will be scarce until hibernation/aestivation sets in...and next spring, I'm guessing (hoping?) I'll be saying hello once again.  It is bear season, now, and well before sunrise there was what sounded like a distant gunshot somewhere toward Hall Top.  I will hope it was just a warning shot, if that's what it was.

Last night, I didn't bellow at it.  I just poked my head out of the door and as I talked to it in a normal voice, it turned around and faced me at my gate.  We just looked at each other a bit, very peacefully. Then, it turned its head and slowly slipped into the darkenss of the mountainside.  I vow that I'll be prepared to play one of my flutes for it one night and see how that goes.  :-)

Pretty good rain chances moving in tonight and hanging around through Wednesday.  Haven't had measurable precipitation for the past 12 days, which contrasted with the 10+ inches we had in the 2 weeks prior to that.  Lots of winter predictions are out, and I'll post something on that later next week.  For now, let's enjoy the above-average temperatures before they go on hiatus.

Bob

TOTALS...NOW TIME TO DRY!

7PM 10-5-15 FROM THE END OF STAYMON

One last hurrah of a shower came through around 730pm last evening, but around 7pm a most unusual snippet of a rainbow popped through an isolated shaft of light and lit the area up orange as seen from the end of Staymon (click to enlarge).

Here in Haywood the rains were more limited during the October 1 - October 4 window that the National Weather Service was using for storm totals in the region. I measured 3.47" for those days. Our rains were more long-running and better measured in the September 25 - October 5 range where I measured 10.73".

CLICK HERE to see the official tallies from the Charleston, SC NWS office...highest in Charleston County proper, over 2 feet of rain in 4 days.   Ugh....


Bob

GOOD NEWS?....

In a nutshell, Hurricane Joaquin models have continued a more northeasterly movement, to the point that the heavy rain threat here in the mountains is pulling back. It's a royal mess, and will continue to be, in the Piedmont and points east in the Carolinas, but Joaquin's water input into our coastal low is reduced for us here in western NC.  We still have one soggy weekend on tap, and rain totals will still measure a few inches, but I am relieved by what I saw last night and am seeing this morning.

There is a high wind warning as well for higher elevations...and it has nothing to do with Joaquin.  The pressure differential between a Canadian high and our coastal low will create windy conditions, but even that looks to affect more the mountains NNE of Asheville, not Haywood except the Parkway area and highest peaks.  Any good stiff gusts could topple weak trees in our soggy soils, but, as I said earlier, original threats here are much lower this morning than previous models hinted at.  I'll take that as a very good bit of news.

Bob

WEATHER UPDATE

Poor Grand Bahama Banks...a Category 4 hurricane is bad enough, but to have one sit over you for days has to be devastating, The latest models keep Joaquin offshore with no landfall, a trend now for 36 hours. 

(click on any image to enlarge it)

CURRENT SURFACE MAP

But our rain concerns aren't about a landfall...it's a triple play that is in place atmospherically which is going to make a bad situation worse.  The thunderstorms we had Wednesday were due to a cold front that ended up stalling just off the coast, and is now backing in slightly as a stationary front.  At the GA-FL border is a fairly strong upper level low sitting on that front, a low that will ever so slowly creep up the coast.  That set-up alone is reason enough for a lot of rain here.  Add to that Joaquin spinning northward later today with that counter-clockwise spin, as it will be feeding copious moisture into the flow around that coastal low, exacerbating the situation.

And even THAT in itself would be enough of a horrible mess.  Add to that all the rain we've had in the past week: 4.37" as of Thursday morning, with 1.67" falling Wednesday afternoon at my house at the end of Staymon...now we throw in super-saturated soils and breezier conditions, which can bring weaker trees down and possibly drop power lines.  Oy vey...

5 DAY RAIN TOTALS

While it will be far heavier amounts east of us, latest models still have us in a 7-10" rainfall today through Monday.  I worry about rockslides in the I-40 gorge for sure, and Maggie has plenty of history with mudslides.

If I get any interesting data or unusual updates, I'll post them here.


Bob