POST FLORENCE INFO

cell phone shot of Flo rain on a leaf

Florence ended up tracking over Asheville which greatly helped us avoid more rain and wind.  In fact, we took much more damage in ACA from that Thursday afternoon storm a couple of weeks ago, compared to Flo's no-show for us.  I tallied only 2.11" of rain from Flo, and it was overwhelmingly the steady, soaker variety. Winds were tame, overall.

But on the coast it's a different, devastating story, of course.  I've tried to pull together some data links for those that like to explore the history and effects of Florence, though many rivers are still rising there, so Flo's story is far, far from over.

This is a neat interactive link that tracked Florence from a low of the coast of Africa, turning into an historical Cape Verde system:  
Interactive map for FLORENCE track

This link takes some work...I put in the date September 17 and set it for 7 day precipitation totals.  You can also select county boundaries or whatever you'd like to see:
Interactive PRECIP model


These links are to the latest Public Information Statements that often contain numeric listing of rain totals. Last time I checked they weren't all updated to show the true totals, though, and you may have to click around the "1,2,3,4..." at the top to find the rain total reports:
MOREHEAD CITY NWS
WILMINGTON NWS
RALEIGH NWS
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG NWS




Bob

SUNDAY A.M. UPDATE

745pm last evening from the end of Staymon (click to enlarge)

There's not really a whole lot to post about in terms of concerns and changes for ACA.  As I type here before 10am, I've had 0.4" of rain and very little in terms of winds, but the heavier rain and breezier bands will be here later today.  

The center of circulation was over Saluda, SC, forecast to turn NW and come pretty much overhead here in ACA tonight.  The heaviest rains continue to be in the NE quadrant, so of the 3-6" I wrote about Thursday, I'm hedging on the low end for us.  The only concern I have in ACA will be the possibility of a falling tree here or there.

I did make a run down the 4-lane to Walmart and over to Ingles and such this morning.  In both directions, the high speed lane has been recently paved, with the slow right lane roughed up and ready for paving.  That slow lane demands caution as the ponding in that particular lane jerked my steering wheel significantly a few times.  Take the paved lane and avoid the right one should you head out.  

As yet there are no good links to share on storm data due to the persistent weather still pounding eastern NC.  I'll post those as they become available...and any changes for us should there be any.

Bob

THURSDAY UPDATE

Since posting a few days ago, several key things have evolved per Hurricane Florence.  It has lost power, down from a Cat 4 to a Cat 2, but at the same time the storm is about 500 miles wide, so big that the International Space Station had to go to a wide-angle lens to photograph it all.  The hurricane force winds extend 80 miles from the center, so effectively a 160-mile swath of sustained winds >74mph.

Too, Flo is slowing in forward speed, which will extend and exacerbate the wind damage and severe flooding likely to occur as it nears the Carolina coastline throughout today and Friday.  The actual location of landfall in a slow mover becomes a tad of a moot point, but it still looks to be just north of Cape Fear, toward Topsail Island.

Where it begins to directly affect us in ACA is mostly Sunday and Monday at this point.  Up til then there will be the daily scattered showers and storms, then breezy conditions will start picking up as we get into the weekend and the remnants move closer to us.  Flo could still be a tropical storm in power as it crosses through the northern Upstate of South Carolina, near Florence (nice irony, huh?) and then a tropical depression by Columbia early early Sunday morning.  From there, it lazily curls back up to the NC mountains by midnight as we head into Monday, all the while making for gray, wet, and breezy conditions for us.

Amounts? I have not been overly impressed with the national QPF maps in keeping up with the changing track and speed and rainfall from Flo, but 3-6 inches is a good guesstimate for us (at least at this time).  It will be breezy, of course, but the only concerns for damage will be trees being knocked down and localized flash flooding from really heavy bands.  I think back to May and the areas that had tragic landslides and such here in the Blue Ridge, musing if the heavy rains might dislodge more events from weakened slopes.

As always, I'll update as I see necessary, probably sometime Saturday.

Bob

FLORENCE INFO, FYI

(updated landfall timing in red)

I well imagine some in ACA will be having some coastal visitors come and stay as Hurricane Florence barrels toward Cape Lookout/Cape Hatteras with a landfall Friday. Many mandatory evacuations are already underway, and for good reason.  If you draw crosshairs through the center of a hurricane (N-S, E-W), the worst of the worst place to be is the NE quadrant (Q1 for you math experts). Morehead City up through Hatteras are in the most dangerous situations, and where there are those mandatory evacuations.

While every station/news outlet has endless banter about this storm, I wanted to share with you a catch-all website that is a trove of hurricane information pulled together, for those that like to explore.  Even if you might not understand all the technical information, you'll find this useful:

Mike's Weather Page

The following is but a sample of what you'll find poking around there (I'll focus on Florence; other storm data is listed there, as well).  

First, you'll notice the URL is 'spaghetti models', and spaghetti plots are just like they sound: 'noodle' lines of the predicted hurricane path by the myriad  models and algorithms.  Florence has had a tight grouping ever since it's birth (NOT common), and the concerning aspect is this storm will most likely be making a direct, perpendicular hit near the Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras areas. (click on pics to enlarge)

Spaghetti plots for Florence

The most widely used/seen graphic is the predicted path put out by the National Hurricane Center:

This graphic shows spaghetti-like plots on the predicted intensity of Florence.  While on this run nothing reaches a Cat 5, many are strong 4's, and reaching a 5 status is not out of the question:

You'll find a link to the Hurricane Hunters which provide a wealth of technical data on their slicing of the storm itself:

And, of course, there are links to surface weather maps.  A cold front is bringing us our increased rains right now, but that cold front will soon stall with the strong wind field of Florence, focusing torrential rains for somebody somewhere once it comes ashore and slows down:

All that to say Florence is most likely going to produce catastrophic damage not only from the winds and storm surge, but the flooding rains once inland.

The effects in ACA? It will be breezy for sure, with winds ultimately swinging around to the NE, then N, then NW.  My concern for us is the potential for lots of rain and wind IF the remnants continue moving westward toward the northern Blue Ridge. As I type the QPF predictions aren't alaming for us in the 5-day outlook:

5-day precipitation outlook

In short, ACA is still a pretty good place to be in the Carolinas for this hurricane, barring the remnants moving directly at us.  I'll update those concerns in a later post.


Bob

ACAIHOA BOARD UPDATE

August 25, 2018 sunrise

I was unable to attend our annual meeting, but here is the list and contact information for the new board of directors elected at that meeting.  FYI, with just four elected officers, Keith Patton has volunteered to help the board, as well:

President- Jeff Hintzman  828-400-7921

Vice President- Terry Medford 828-400-9250

Secretary- Carrie Patton carriescollier@yahoo.com

Treasurer- Lynn Strause lstrause@mac.com

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Last Thursday ACA had a nasty storm sit overhead that dumped heavy rain and gusty winds that toppled a number of trees.  I didn't get home til late that night, sat on the sofa and looked out at the deck to see the upper half of a tree resting on the heavily damaged corner.  Not what I wanted to come home to.  :-/  

But we have angels on this mountain that help neighbors and clear our roads, and for that we should all be very grateful.  Thank you...you know who you are.  :-)

Given the ridiculously wet May we had, the paving companies are still making up for lost time.  I will pass along information per ACA's paving and timing as I get it.

August 29, 2018 sunrise

Bob