ROAD UPDATE

Apple Creek Road is in fantastic shape up to Staymon.  In fact, there is no snow on the ground down low as it starts accumulating just below the double hairpin curves. The higher you go the more snow, and side roads like Staymon are completely snow covered but I didn't slip going down or up.

Bitter cold tonight before we slowly climb out of the freezer.  Next week is looking quite mild, so no more winter events for a  bit.


Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING: TUESDAY

ACA is now under a Winter Storm Warning (click link) from 4a-7p Tuesday.  2"-3" of snow is reasonable for us, with a bit less down toward the valleys.  We've gotten into a cold rut which will deepen behind this snow as the temperatures fall during the snow.  What falls and collects will stay, with a high Wednesday only in the teens and single digit lows possible Wednesday AM and surely Thursday AM.

Onset should be before sunrise, and I first think of the school system that most likely will call off school (and will need to Wednesday as well with no chance for melting). Tricky travel goes without saying, and I'll be posting road treatment updates along with weather updates as needed.


Bob

6pm SUNDAY ROAD UPDATE

Just drove up Apple Creek Road to the end of Staymon Road. Salting very effective, no slips or icy spots. I suppose it could make for spotty refreeze areas if temp goes below temp range of salt, but the roads are clear ( I assume it's clear to the top).


Bob

WEATHER/ROAD UPDATE

Since I last posted, ACA is in a Winter Weather Advisory (click link) until 7pm.  The data in it matches what I'd written yesterday, so didn't update that.  The amount of snow isn't the issue so much as it is the flash-freezing of precipitation on the roads hours ago as the temperature continues to drop.  Black ice has already been causing many issues.

Word has come in that there are patchy icy areas on Apple Creek Road, and many icy areas on Mauney and area roads.  The ACAHOA plan is to salt Apple Creek Road this afternoon, but according to the plower it's dependent upon the state getting the roads treated to make it safe enough to get here.

Throw into the mix the temperatures continuing to drop from the mid 20s into the teens, soon making road salt ineffective (what is put down is not the -15 degree salt variations you get in stores).  Just because roads may get salted doesn't necessarily mean they are no longer icy and slick.  Be aware of that and extremely cautious if you feel it necessary to drive.

If you have any reports, feel free to put them in the comments section.  I'll make a new post when it seems helpful.  Cross your fingers the power stays on, too.


Bob

WEEKEND WEATHER UPDATE

Rain, heavy at times, moves in this afternoon and evening, along with increasingly strong winds.  This system is a freight train of cold temperatures, the coldest so far this winter...luckily, the cold only barely catches up to the northwest moisture flow Sunday morning that will bring us a tad bit of snow via NW flow snow showers.

Insofar as snow amounts, everything points to less than an inch, and most 1/2" or less. 2-4" may collect above 5000 feet on the TN border, but ACA should see only light accumulations. However, look back earlier this week and see how slippery just a light coating can be on Apple Creek Road.  What falls and sticks will go nowhere for a couple of days. 

Temperatures will be falling through the day Sunday, and flash freezing may be a concern where liquid won't get a chance to evaporate first.  The winds will howl Sunday with bitter wind chill temperatures.  Lows Monday morning will be in the low teens for a lot of us, unless the winds back off (then they may hit upper single digits).

Too, late Wednesday into Thursday may well be another chance of snow, but it looks limited at this time.  More on that early next week.


Bob

ULTRA-FINE SNOW ACCUMULATING....UPDATE

First, the top of ACA is looking like a winter wonderland this evening, in that the fine snow has coated all branches, trees, and spotty accumulations on the ground.  My deck at the end of Staymon has a coating of icy slush on it. I hit 32 degrees at the mirror curve, though flakes can be seen down to Mauney Cove.

The forecast simply mentions non-significant accumulations for the ACA area.  The moisture field is largely below the radar beam from GSP, so it looks like nothing is going on here on most radar apps...but I know differently since it's wintry out there.  It's also hard to 'forecast' that which isn't showing up well on the radar.

5:10pm 1-14-19 @ end of Staymon Rd.

So, especially for those of us higher up, just check your steps and driveway before moving around anywhere.  I'll update later if bigger issues develop, or in the morning if there are early AM issues per travel.


Bob

WHEW!...ICE-BE-GONE

I got up around 330p to let the new pup out and check the ice, so I was awake when the power went out around 3:55am.  The ensuing 'kaboom!' from Mauney Cove told me a transformer blew, due to a tree falling across a line.  Thankfully, the temperature has really climbed today and all has melted - just watch for branches and limbs everywhere on the roads.

Click HERE for the GSP storm reports....looks like everyone got the ice, some getting up to a dangerous 0.5 inch thickness.  Glad I had only 0.1 inch here at the end of Staymon.  While there is a limited chance for a little snow late tonight, refreeze and black ice may be the only issue in the morning.  Temperatures Monday aren't supposed to rise more than a few degrees before warming up more through the week.


Bob

WEATHER UPDATE/CHANGES

Cliff Notes version:  buckle down for freezing rain, albeit light amounts, here in ACA. UPDATE @ 6pm: Temp down to 30 degrees, steady rain, asphalt drive is now icy here at the end of Staymon, extremely slick and difficult to walk even slowly.

I've held off updating as a lot has been changing, lots of nuances and small shifts, but shifts that make a big difference in the forecast.  Here's the lowdown:

Haywood County (ACA) is now under a Winter Weather Advisory until 7pm Sunday, mainly for freezing rain. Go a tad bit east to Buncombe County, and they are under a Winter Storm Warning for the snow/sleet/ice up to 2" we might have gotten (but more than likely won't).

Outside of a burst of sleet and snow early this morning, it has been dry until late this afternoon.  The freezing rain is more like freezing drizzle, but my deck and stairs iced up almost immediately as my temp here at the end of Staymon Road had dropped to 32 degrees.  The major precipitation field has yet to arrive, and I don't see the freezing rain scenario changing much as the thickness of the freezing air above us is too thin to support sustained sleet or snow.

Sadly, ice is what nobody wants.  If there is a silver lining, it's that we're slated to stay at or under 0.10" of accumulated ice, which is not 'dangerous' per se....start talking 0.25" and you get into large power outages, downed trees, etc., but that appears to be for locations south and especially east of us, all the way through the Triad.

I'll probably update in the morning, but just know it's already slippery out there...while the roads may be fine now, there is no guarantee they'll stay fine.  Take it easy...more than easy.



Bob

WINTRY MIX NUISANCE AHEAD

This incoming system has little going for it in the accumulation department.  Models are pretty much running 0.5-2" of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.  But you'll never really know how much we get as rain and such will beat back accumulations.  While there may be periods and patches of slippery roads around ACA, I'm expecting to be able to get around in 4WD.

The slipperiness of ice will be the big concern, but Haywood County may well miss out on that as the warmer temps push back in from the SW.  This NWS graphic shows us breathing a sigh of relief as we don't need more travel woes and possible power outages.

(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

Saturday will be the colder of the days, and may start as all snow in bursts, with the sleet and freezing rain mixing in as the day and night wears on.  By Sunday, any precipitation switches over to all rain as the day progresses, ending our concerns.  

I'll update if necessary early Saturday morning.


Bob