SATURDAY 9AM UPDATE

This may clear up soon, but there is quite a mess of government vehicles down near the bottom a Chris Martin's house, which is in a extremely icy area ( I know from experience!). Yesterday it was snowing with temperatures above freezing so that snow melted.  Now that the temperatures are down in the mid and lower twenties down low,  that wet base has turned to ice and is very dangerous.

Please don't try to go out at this moment, and if you have to, please use the most extreme caution possible.

Thanks to Chris Martin for the pics and phone call.


Bob

AND NOW FOR ROUND #2....

6am FRI update: Yet another tweak as the advisory begins at 7am today through noon Saturday. Radar showing snow already along TN border, but movement is west to east...Smokies will shield ACA to some degree. The earlier the better to run any errands...
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We now have a brand new Winter Weather Advisory that will be in effect from noon Friday until noon Saturday for accumulating snow.

Round number one had those really strong winds which did indeed limit our accumulation, and we'll be under another wind advisory again. Both models that I favor are pushing 2" for Apple Creek Acres and that seems very reasonable. Maybe the winds will keep us on the low side...maybe.

The good news is we warm some and get out of the meat locker by Sunday. Sunshine and a higher sun angle will be our best buds.

As always, I'll update if needed tomorrow as I can, as I'm on the hoof two more days.  Gee, I'm missing all the fun...🤣


Bob

LOTS OF WINTRY WEATHER INCOMING...

6am THURSDAY UPDATE:  There was just under an inch of snow when I left this morning about 5 o'clock, and there was a good icy layer underneath that snow. Apple Creek road is mostly snow covered on the lower section and totally snow covered on the upper section.  I came down the mountain less than 5 miles an hour in 4 wheel drive with traction control on and I didn't slip, but I'm willing to bet it is slippery with any other type of drive train like front wheel drive or 2 wheel drive. Please use a great deal of caution if you must travel. It was 20ﾟ and will be a very cold couple of days ahead. I-40 from mm27-mm30 was in surprisingly bad shape, fyi.
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Ah, where do I begin?  From our milder temps we crash late today and stay in the meat locker for a couple of days.  Rain changes to snow, accumulating snow, coupled with strong winds that will swing from SW to NW this evening.  I always think 'power outages' possible in this type event, which is a bigger issue when temps are well below freezing. Round #2 of snow showers sets up Friday into Saturday. with more wind and bitter wind chills.  First, the advisory stuff:

Winter Weather Advisory
(above link includes a Wind Chill Advisory, Hazardous Weather Outlook, and a Special Weather Statement)

Specifics for Apple Creek Acres:

SO much winter-weather-weirdness happens at the 3500' elevation and above...conveniently for us, it's the "blue roof house" at Dawen Circle. Much of the accumulation concerns are for the higher elevations and, frankly, closer to the TN border.  Winds will cut back on accumulations, too, so for the upper half of ACA look for 1-2" of snow by daybreak, when any NW flow snow should be ending. Little accumulation is expected at the entrance to ACA (2800').  HOWEVER....

There is a Round #2 that sets up Friday into Saturday, with cold front #2 and more NW flow snow.  At this time, I don't see that being more than an additional inch, with more gusty winds limiting accumulations. Some of those snow showers could make it down into the valleys, but accumulations should be below advisory criteria.  I'll be on the hoof, but will update as needed, so keep checking here.  I'm slated to drive down at 5am tomorrow and will post a quick update by 6am on what I experienced coming down from Staymon.

The cold temperatures will be a shocker; coupled with strong NW winds, wind chills should easily get to single digits as lows dip to 20 degrees, lower higher up.  Should power go out, have plenty of firewood or light up the LP fireplace and candles readied.

As always, I cross my fingers the accumulations stay limited thanks to the winds, and that the tree work that has been done in ACA will limit outages (unless something out of our HOA goes down). Get ready to bundle up, and as always I'll update as necessary later today IF I see significant changes to pass along.

Wheeeeeee.


Bob

NO TRAVEL ISSUES, BUT....

Yay for the warmer temps...and incoming rain tonight will help wash some snow away.

However, even if lows tonight hang at or just above 32 degrees, wet snow is likely in the pre-dawn hours. Little or no accumulation is expected, and given the somewhat warmed ground, roads should be fine. Soon enough Monday it goes to all rain.

An even more limited chance for snow is slated for overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. No issues are expected, though we'll have a handful of cold days into the weekend after that cold front passage.


Bob

SNOW AND ROAD UPDATE

This particular system is pushing the high end of the forecast snows around ACA. I'm not on the mountain but already close to 4" has fallen up at the end of Staymon, I understand. Probably will be around 5" by the time it tails off.

 Temperatures will be dropping tonight, probably down into the upper teens. Surely there will be some icy bases to this snow with all of our rain, so please use caution on your stairs, decks, and driveways.

I just received word from the board that the plow and salting truck will be here in the morning to take care of our roads. Give some extra time for the salt to do its work before venturing out, if possible.


Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACA

I've hesitated posting a weather update as I have been waiting and waiting and waiting for GSP to post us into a Winter Weather Advisory. All the models point to a few inches of snow for us tomorrow, but GSP continued to hold us in Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) until just now.

What: Winter Weather Advisory
When: 5am Thursday til midnight
Amounts: 1-2" in valleys; 3-5" ridgetops (that can be read lower ACA and upper ACA)
Onset: Near dawn in ACA. Earlier west, later east.

 The next 2 days will be chilly ones, with lows at or below 32ﾟ and highs barely above 32ﾟ unless you happen to pick up a lot of sun (which there won't be much of on Thursday but there will be on Friday). 

Given our warmer temperatures we have had, our initial snow on roads will melt, then become slush, and could become icy, complicating travel throughout the day Thursday into Friday morning.

I have to leave around 645am Thursday and will post any changes before then, should there be any. Please add your road reports, etc., into the comments below, and I'll update on the hoof Thursday afternoon.


Bob

SNOWY THURSDAY LIKELY

This will serve as a preliminary post to a more full post I'll post tomorrow...just wanted to use the word 'post' three times in one sentence (make that four).

This is another system coming in from the southwest that will overrun cold air moving in from an area of high pressure that will be sitting in the northern Plains states. Nice little combo for this event.

The GFS has been steady at 2-3" for ACA, even down in the valleys.  4" possible above 4000'.  The NAM is just now 'seeing' the system and it's hot and heavy in the 4-6" range, but the GFS is getting the nod from professionals...at least for now.

Onset looks to be after daybreak Thursday, and it should be a done deal by Friday daybreak.

Stay tuned for tomorrow's post.


Bob

ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW TODAY...

UPDATE @ 1215PM: Pic says it all about my getting back to home at noon. Below blue roof is some bare road patches, but above there roads are snow covered and slippery. I have 4wd with traction control and new tires, and I had trouble getting home. Please use extreme caution if you must travel at this time.
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ACA is under another  Winter Weather Advisory today from 6:00 a.m. until midnight. Unlike every other system we have had so far this winter, this one is coming at us from the Southwest. The heavier snowfall will fall a couple of counties to our west along the southern edge of the Blue Ridge escarpment. We still are in position to pick up another 1 to 2" of snow with the higher ridge tops above 4000' maybe picking up 3 or 4".

 The ground has been cold enough long enough (21 at home as I type) that snow will stick and make the roads slippery once it starts to accumulate. Too, there were lot of wet places from all the excessive rainfall that may be icy today as well. Temperatures are not supposed to go much above freezing and probably not even to 30ﾟ at my house, so what precipitation we get will be in the form of snow.

 I will post any updates and notes about road conditions as I get them.


Bob

VOLATILE WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS

Rainbow from the end of Staymon 2/4/20

I went out a little while ago and emptied 5.25" of rain out of the rain gauge. We're having way too much of a good thing with flooding an issue in many locations. Haywood County schools is letting out today at 12:30 due to rising waters,  and tornado warnings have been popping left and right along the I-85 corridor in South Carolina.

There will also be embedded thunderstorms and wind gusts, which could easily bring down trees in our super-saturated soils. Add to all of this switch over to snow tomorrow morning around daybreak and we'll have a mess on our hands. All of my models are pumping 1 to 2" for ACA, though most of that will be in the upper half of our mountain.

The ground temperatures will be warm enough to more than likely preclude any problems on the roads, but snow looks like it will be falling tomorrow morning.  In order to get that cold air in here, the winds are going to have to blow strongly. I would be prepared for a potential power outage as a distinct possibility.

I'll update later today as needed.


Bob