SIGNS AND MOTHER ELK LOVE...

 Along with the dominance of yellow leaves in Apple Creek at the moment, you have no doubt seen more yellow in the form of new signs in Apple Creek.  While the information is not news to those that have been here a while, we do have new residents and new rental properties that need to be aware of winter weather conditions, especially.  Click on pics to enlarge:

DO YOU REMEMBER WHEN....

Methinks a lot of us can remember our mothers licking a tissue to rub something off our faces when were young...I know mine did, and I did not care for it! :-)  A few weeks ago in Cataloochee Valley, I was out photographing elk.  While a crowd was watching the harem master, a 5/5 bull, I turned a very different direction to watch a mama elk clean and preen her progeny.  It's a mother thing...and a beautiful sight.  Click on pics to enlarge.

Bob

THIS SUNDAY IN APPLE CREEK...AND ELK...

This information has already been posted on the Apple Creek Acres FB page, but for those that aren't aware, this Sunday morning volunteers from our neighborhood will meet to help beautify our newly repaved Mauney Cove Road (if you haven't gotten up and seen it, it's great and long overdue!). Posting at Sharon's behest...

___________________________________

The Mauney Cove Road  "Adopt-A-Highway" trash pick up is scheduled for Sunday, October 3rd at 10 AM. Sunday was chosen because the Convenience Center is closed which means less traffic and ironically, that is where most of the trash is on the road.  We will meet at 10am at the entrance to our development. I have vests, gloves and trash bags. I hope to have at least 6 to 8 volunteers to spread out along Mauney Cove Rd to knock this out in a couple of hours.

Sharon Gallimore 

________________________________________

Last weekend I took out early Sunday morning to catch the Cataloochee Valley Elk herd and try out some new equipment. I'm posting a few that I have edited, and should get more soon. The fog layer played focusing havoc at times...I vow to conquer! Click on any pic to enlarge it, fyi.

(Check out the cow's eye...as if she knows....LOL!)

Bob

ANNUAL MEETING MINUTES: PLEASE READ

(click to enlarge)

Apologies for my delay in posting the minutes for the board.  Curently, I'm on the road for work and have had some technical issues...my solution was to simply put the 2 pages in PDF form in a Dropbox link (below).  Click on it and it will take you straight to it.  Please save/print a copy for your reference as it has info on our HOA, new board members and contact info, etc.

ANNUAL MEETING MINUTES

bob

IMPORTANT UPDATE: HOA MEETING 8-14-21

Unusual dawn 7-30-21...this was the only color due to heavy cloud cover and light showers that moved in.  A nice contrast to the usual postcard  view, eh?! Click to enlarge.

Folks, this has NOTHING to do with  ACHOA...only our meeting space for the Annual ACHOA meeting August 14, 2021.

Due to the inflammation of COVID cases due to the Delta variant, there is now an edict in place for all Haywood County public buildings that MASKS MUST BE WORN INDOORS.  This includes the HAYWOOD COUNTY LIBRARY.  For our HOA meeting, you will need to wear a mask, WHETHER YOU HAVE BEEN VACCINATED OR NOT.

If you do not wish to attend because of this mandate, place make sure someone has your voting proxies.  I repeat, this has nothing to do with our HOA, so directing any complaints to our volunteers at the door will be wasted energy.  Please be respectful.

On a side note, I wanted to add a personal note about the 'mirror curve' above the double hairpins.  I have on several occasions, stared at that mirror as I approach it, only to make the turn and be face to face with a car.  There are proven blind spots...all that to say, if you meet someone on that single track by the hedge, the person nearest a driveway should back up so all can pass safely. I'm not aware of any serious issues...I just wanted to say that the mirror itself is limited information, so proceed with caution each time.

I still can't believe it's already into the second week of August....

Bob

PROXIES, ANNUAL MEETING, and THE MEANING OF LIFE

7-7-2021 Dawn from the end of Staymon
(click to enlarge)

As for "the meaning of Life" you're on your own.  :-)

As far as the Annual HOA Meeting, here's the scoop:

Date:    Saturday, August 14, 

Time:   10am-12noon

Where:  Haywood County Public Library (S. Haywood and Boyd)

Park in lower lot (blue) and go through lower level door (yellow)

(click to enlarge)

As for PROXIES...the right to vote is a serious privilege, and a proxy is just that: a vote (consider it an absentee body!).  In order for our all-important annual meeting to take place, the HOA MUST have a quorum, a minimum number of 'votes' to take place.  All lot owners should have received their letter and proxy in the mail by now.  For those that cannot attend in person, it is paramount that you fill out your proxy and have it turned in at the meeting.  There is a self-addressed stamped envelope to make it easy-peasy.  You can assign someone you know to carry your vote or let the board vote for you. So please, get your proxy in early so business can proceed as usual when the annual meeting convenes.

The annual meeting is a great opportunity to meet new people (we've got a lot!) and have the opportunity to discuss items of interest, concerns, updates, you name it.  It's OUR meeting as lot owners of Apple Creek Acres to ask away and learn.  And chances are we won't all agree on some things...but it's a chance for good, healthy dialogue, the way it should be.

After all that, chances are high I'll be on the road with a charter (tour bus work), as I would love to meet some new faces.  I'll be exercising the proxy option myself....I hope those of you that need to will do the same.  Thanks in advance for everyone's attention to this important matter.

Bob

CALL FOR 2-4 HOA VOLUNTEERS

Both scenes are from early dawn 6-14-21 from the end of Staymon (click to enlarge)

Every August, the Apple Creek HOA holds its anual meeting, which covers topics of important information as it pertains to Apple Creek residents, electing a new HOA board, going over various committee reports (financial and otherwise), etc.  The 2021 date has not been finalized just yet, but once it has you will know weeks in advance, here and via a letter to all lot owners.

The board has asked me to post a call for 2 to maybe as many as 4 volunteers that might wish to step forward/find out more about what is involved, in advance of the meeting.  

If you are interested in finding out more information, click HERE to see my prior posting of current board members and their contact information.

Bob

WHAT'S 'BRUIN' IN APPLE CREEK?....

Come to think about it, haven't had a bear visit at the house (end of Staymon) since late 2019, so it was only a matter of time.  My bird seed is stored in sealed metal cans inside the shed he was investigating, but hopefully he won't decide to dismantle it.  LOL!

Please make sure you don't leave trash outside at night, and bring those bird feeders in, too.  A fed bear is a dead bear.  Let 'em pass on through.

For the first time in months I'm finally here on the mountain for a good many days, but I feel like I missed most of spring, being on the road a great deal of the time.  Never got around to posting my annual wildflowers post, but I do have some sunrises and other shots I've put on (click on any pic to enlarge).

Rose-breasted Grosbeak

Bob

BIG CHANGES, ALBEIT SHORT LIVED

Wind and cold are coming in later tonight through Friday before ameliorating.  A skiff of snow is likely tomorrow, as well, but no travel issues are expected.  Friday morning lows are forecast to be in the teens, which is bad news for budding vegetation....cover any exposed plants if you have them and can.

Otherwise, temps warm back up Saturday into Easter Sunday, helping us forget this rather typical cold shot at this time of year.

Thursday I get my 2nd stage Moderna shot at the Fairgrounds.  When I got my 1st stage shot, the PA said I'd get my second shot April 1, at which point I said, "Is this some kind of joke?"  Apparently, my quick wit reference to April Fool's Day was not comprehended as I got the blank look followed by crickets chirping and no response... LOL!!!

Cheer's, y'all!

Boib

"STUFF" :-)

Well, we passed the Ides of March and are now heading towards official spring in a few days.  Meteorologists call March 1 "Meteorological Spring", which you may have heard mentioned at some point.  We still have some chilly mornings to deal with coming up, and more rain, but thankfully no white stuff in the cards...for now.  The pic below is of a skiff of snow we got May 9 last year...

I finally got around to editing the video of my sled trip down to my car.  I had a big charter to pick up the University of Virginia men's basketball team one morning....we already had a few inches of snow two nights prior, and then a couple of more inches ending up falling the night before, so I wanted to be safe and put my car at the bottom of Apple Creek Road.  I'll drive anywhere with my 4WD Explorer, but Apple Creek has some tricky sections if it gets icy, so I played it safe. Jeff Hintzman (I'm assuming) made a great call to salt Apple Creek Road before the second snowfall, as it helped clear the road that day....but not before my sledding adventure from Staymon Road down!  I have a headband mount for my GoPro which was ideal for this. The video starts from Staymon Road where it pitches downhill, and ends around Chris Martin's house at the bottom, where there just wasn't enough snow to continue.  I cut out the sections where I had to walk, and then sped it up x1.5 to shorten it up...I felt like a kid again.  :-) Click on the link below.

Sledding to Work

For those new to the mountain, just wait for the flora explosion the first two weeks of April!  We have an abundance of wildflowers at every turn, and I'll be posting pics as I get them.  I use the word 'explosion' as I find it magical in every way how fast and varied flowers and leaves come out.

Trillium (click to enlarge)

A few weeks ago there were reports of a man wandering around low on Apple Creek Road knocking on doors, looking for his wife who was cheating on him, yaddah, yaddah...ultimately the Sheriff's Office said he and his wife are known for their drinking and causing some disturbances, but said he was not a dangerous person. I think they live in Country Place, if I remember correctly.  Anytime you see something suspicious, please call the Sheriff's Office at (828) 452-6670 and report it.

For now, that's all the news from Lake Wobegon...gosh, how I miss Garrison Keillor and Prairie Home Companion!

Bob

SIDE ROADS WORK...

 From the HOA board:

There is a chance that Custom Paving will be in the neighborhood working on the side roads tomorrow (Friday).

__________________

Just a good ol' "heads up!".

Bob

LIMITED UPDATE

 I'm out of town the next couple of days, so I'm not able to see things for myself. I know the power is out, and as I am typing here at 9:30 in the morning, I have got no update from Duke as to what time the outage may be fixed. I do know it seemed to affect 60 families when I reported it, which sounds like an Apple Creek and Mauney Cove situation. There's some light ice on the driveway and certainly on the decks, elevated surfaces, and vegetation. It should switch over to rain and hopefully wash the ice away.

However, tonight, there may be a situation where there may be more freezing conditions. Our winter storm warning was extended until 7 in the morning Friday from 7 p.m. tonight. Please use Extreme Caution if you must head out and if you have any observations, feel free to put them in the comments section. If I get information from people, I will put in the comments sections, as well. And forgive me for all the typos as I am using voice typing to speed this up!

Bob

WINTER STORM WATCH....UGH

Sunrise burst of color 2-16-21, end of Staymon (click to enlarge)

ACA is under a Winter Storm Watch as I type, which will transition to a Winter Storm Warning later today. It runs from 7p Wednesday through 7pm Thursday, calling for a mix of wintry precipitation that ultimately favors more sleet and freezing rain than snow for ACA.  

I won't be on the mountain for this event, but for those on the mountain, you may have some slippery stuff to deal with Thursday morning. What warmth in our roads has chilled considerably as I have 17 degrees as I type. The original forecast had temps rising and precipitation transitioning to rain here....but if that process slows, it makes for an extended mess on the mountain for ACA. Like the last event that didn't affect Haywood County, a 'warm nose' should work in from the SW, keeping big icing problems in the Piedmont and northern NC mountains.

Please add road conditions and any problems in the comments section...and I'll update as I can from the road.

Bob

ROAD PLAN

 The board has asked me to pass the following information along concerning Apple Creek roads. The plower will plow Apple Creek Road either this evening or tomorrow morning. All the side roads will be plowed tomorrow, as well. A couple of volunteers have taken care of some portions already (thank y'all!).

Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ACA

Mauney Cove and Lake J (click to enlarge)

TREE CREW UPDATE:  Before I get into our incoming wintry mess, I want to pass along some info from the tree crew.  They are presently working their way down Apple Creek Road to the entrance (but not today, Saturday).  Once they finish with the main road, they are going to go back to the top and start working the side roads all the way down. They'll be up here for some time to come, in one place or another.  Just a heads up for that.

_____________________________________

Well, just what most of us don't want, yet another snow system to stymie travel, mail delivery, etc. This one is a southern system that typically brings more snow than our NW flow stuff and should give us the most snow thus far.  The good news is that the core of the polar air first slated to get here won't be getting here at all.  The bad news is that being on the edge of the arctic air, we get the cold temps and a low pressure coming out of the Gulf of Mexico that will ride along that arctic boundary, which ushers in more moisture, hence more accumulations.

The good news is that the 6-12" totals now are forecast to be half-that, in the 3-6" range.  The bad news is that's because the higher snow totals, which some will see early on, will be compacted by sleet and freezing rain. Yucky-doodle in every respect. My work today was canceled so I won't be giving a report or dealing with driving up the mountain at midnight tonight. Time to prepare and hunker down.

ACA is under a Winter Storm Warning from 6pm Saturday through 12 noon on Sunday. With no demarcation really between higher and lower elevations, the Warning is a broad-brush stroke of 3-6" with locally higher amounts of heavy snow, then tempered with some sleet and possibly freezing rain as the warm nose moves in from the SW early Sunday. My somewhat favored GFS model has ACA solidly in a 5-8" band, and the earlier hot-n-heavy NAM has scaled back to 4-6". Naturally, the higher up you are, the more accumulation you should get.  I'm looking for 5-7" here at the end of Staymon.

I suppose some other good news is that bitterly cold temps will not come in afterwards.  Chilly, yes, brutally cold, no.  Sunshine should pop out Sunday afternoon and highs for a lot of us should go above 32 degrees. After refreeze, Monday's temps should get into the 40s if you're in the sunshine.

Plowing and salting will be done once the precipitation ends, and I'll pass that along once I hear from the board. Make the most of your daylight hours in preparing for our umpteenth winter wonderland. I think you might even find a football game or something to watch on TV...

Bob

TREE WORK (AND SNOW...AGAIN)

(FRIDAY A.M. - ACA roads are icy from last night's sleet and freezing rain. Please use caution if you must travel our early.  Conditions should improve in a matter of hours. Staymon is very icy, and Apple Creek Road is, as well.)

As some of you know and e crews are working very hard clearing out a tremendous amount of timber and branches away from the power lines. They've been contracted by Duke Energy to do so and have full rights to do what they need to do wherever and whenever it is best to do so. I have talked with a couple of the crew members at length and they are very nice professionals. They're doing a great job.

While there is no set time in particular, they're roughly coming up about 7:30 in the morning and leaving later than 5 PM. They want to be as courteous as possible for those needing to pass by on Apple Creek Road, but it is easier said than done when they have to move multiple large trucks with lift bucket equipment, the chipper machine and truck, and supervisor pickups and move them up into driveways or off into side roads. It's very time-consuming for them to do that. The more they have to stop to let traffic by and then reset their equipment, the longer they are going to be on our Mountain doing this type of work.

 ***The board has asked me to pass along to anyone traveling the upper parts of Apple Creek to please try to consolidate trips so that you aren't going up and down multiple times a day. The less time that we interrupt them, the quicker they will get their work done and be on their way to the next job location. The ultimate bottom line is that their work will help not only ensure that our power outage chances are greatly reduced, but it will also let more precious winter sunlight onto our roads as well. That's to our benefit in a big way. 

Thanks in advance for everyone's continued patience. For inquiring minds who wish to know, no, I have no idea how many more days they will need to finish their job here in Apple Creek. But the more we allow them to do the work, the sooner that end will be.

NOTE: I'm pretty sure we are in for our biggest snow of this season moving in Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.  I know, right? The NAM is hot and heavy at 6-10", GFS is solid in 5-8", and the EURO is 4-6". I'll probably try and pull together a longer discussion late tonight, and then update it Saturday with a follow-up post.  I'll be on the road then, returning to our mountain just short of midnight (crossing fingers). Prepare now.  Oh, and that Polar Vortex threat won't make it here, at least the coldest part.  We're cold, but no single digits ahead. 

Bob

CROSSING FINGERS...

 If my driveway is any indication of the improvements on Apple Creek Road, we're in surprisingly good shape considering the cold and extra snow we got last night. I cleared and salted my icy driveway late yesterday And while covered this morning, it's now completely clear of snow.  Official word is the salt on Apple Creek Road has done the same! 2WD should be okay on Apple Creek Road, but just beware of refreeze tonight and some slick spots.

I had a very fun ride down Apple Creek Road on my sled at 7:30am. I had my GoPro on a headband And I can't wait to look at the footage and edit it down. Assuming it's a fun one, I'll post it on the blog later.

Just keep in mind the side roads will remain mostly snow covered for a while. After a cold night tonight, tomorrow afternoon's temperature should be warmer yet.  Too, the sun angle is getting a little higher, and we'll take all the help we can get.

Bob

5AM UPDATE

While we dodged the snow bullet for most of the day yesterday (except that pre-dawn burst of about 1" at my house).  That all changed overnight as I've gotten 2" more and snow is still falling.  I received this paraphrased  message last night from the HOA board that Apple Creek Road was treated with half a ton of salt late Monday.  The HOA has asked for everyone's patience to let the salt do it's job and to not use the salt boxes, as more is not better.

It's 21 degrees, and today's high may be only equal to yesterday's high, with a good chance it will be colder.  Tonight's lows should dip down into the teens before highs trying to get above freezing.  All that to say don't look for Apple Creek Road to be clear for some time. This is just another insult to injury for all we've experienced this winter.  Welcome to our mountain.  :-)

That means (for some of us) no mail delivery, no propane deliveries, no package deliveries, you name it. The forecast has precipitation Thursday night which should be a very cold rain. Some rain Friday, and Friday night may well have some light snow for us.  Ditto for Saturday night.  By Sunday, we will be treated with a polar vortex crashing down, with potentially the coldest temperatures we've had in 3-4 years. Monday morning's forecast low is currently 7 degrees.  I'll update all that later this week.

My car is at the bottom of ACA, and I'll be sledding down to it early this morning.  I will try to make a quick addendum from my phone on road conditions in ACA, Mauney Cove, etc.  I may not be able to stop and write that until 830am or so.  

I certainly use Google Maps and Waze to check traffic conditions a lot in my work, but another good one to check before heading out is the interactive NCDOT Travel/Traffic maps HERE. You can toggle between conditions, incidents, snow/ice, etc. Most of the cameras are working...I just checked the lovely traffic jam near Harmon Den thanks to an accident, typical of The Gorge in weather like this.

Patience, y'all. If I knew where I could buy a huge box of patience, I'd do it in a heartbeat.  Oh, wait....but then it couldn't be delivered.

Bob

FROM SLUSH TO MORE SNOW

Looking north from Staymon Road this morning 
(click to enlarge)

(This post has been update with the Warning information recently posted as a Watch)

The initial snowfall burst yesterday afternoon was right pretty.  Overnight, as the main moisture field moved in, I got about 2.5" of snow before a heavy sleet and rain band knocked it down to 1-1.5" of pure slush.  Nothing is frozen hard and hopefully we'll melt most of what we have on the roads.

(Click HERE for a list of snow reports, Round #1)

ACA is now under a Winter Storm Warning for elevations above 3500' (the blue roof house).  The lower part of ACA is technically under a Winter Weather Advisory for lesser amounts. This next round will cause us headaches, so prepare today:

Timing:  The Warning now runs from 12am Monday through 1pm Tuesday (starting an hour earlier). This is a long-running event compared to our last little shot.

Temps: This graphic is a very close approximation to what we should experience.  When you have snowpack, temps run colder...when I see a high of 32, I know it will be in the mid 20s at my house:

(click to enlarge)

Amounts: The Warning write-up will have you think this might be our Snowmageddon this winter....but not so fast. The heaviest amounts will be the TN/NC border areas, where 6-12" is likely. At the moment, I don't see but 1-2" for lower ACA and 3-4" for upper ACA. The only way we'd get higher snow totals is if the NW flow sets up coming directly down the I-40 corridor from TN. Not ruling that out...those high totals are almost too close for comfort to ACA.

Gusty winds will be a part of this as well, adding to the wind chill and also tamping down snow totals some. Especially with these incoming cold temps, it's always wise to prepare for a power outage.

Keep in mind nothing will be done to our ACA roads until the snow showers are finished, which at the earliest will be Tuesday afternoon.  As I said earlier, plan ahead today while you can.  Travel on our mountain is expected to be dangerous for a while...and hopefully we won't have any refreeze before the snows arrive. 

Please remember that if you relocate a car ahead of time, make sure that you are as far from any travel lanes as possible.  If you choose an area that's below a steep road section, you may have sliding vehicles coming at you (like the bottom of Staymon).

I'm here for this event, so I'll update as I get pertinent information.  If you have any road reports, etc., feel free to add them in the comments section below.

Bob

WEATHER UPDATE AND MORE...

Let me first tie up some loose ends from questions that have come up recently.  Asplundh is contracted by Duke Energy to take proactive actions to clear powerline right of ways, in hopes of minimizing power outages due to falling timber.  To my knowledge, there is no advance notice of this activity, or at least I've never been aware of one.  And they have the right to do what they need to whenever they want.  While maybe a minor nuisance at times, it is in our best interest if we can minimize power outages.

Mail delivery...I've been round and round lately with the post office and never gotten any satisfactory answers.  We do have a new route driver, Al (I think), but he's been out due to sickness or family issues of late and we've continued to have a mish-mash of fill-in drivers.  I know why I didn't get mail for over two weeks on Staymon, thanks to the never-ending ice-skating rink it was....but in the past few days the roads are perfectly clear and still no mail delivery.  And no satisfactory explanation of why not, either. We're not alone...I've seen all sorts of various posts of poor or non-existent mail delivery in other areas of Haywood County.  The only good answer I know of is to go online and put a hold on your mail for a length of time that suits you and simply go pick it up yourself.

And this tidbit has absolutely nothing to do with ACA, just my job.  I drive motorcoaches for Young Transportation out of Asheville, and am the team driver for the UNC-Asheville men's basketball team.  I just returned early this morning from our trip to Winthrop University in Rock Hill, SC...we slayed the giant last night on their home turf, toppling the longest running undefeated team in the NCAA (21 games). Made for a great trip back, to say the least!

Okay, now to the weather. I enjoyed my 4 years at the Weather Channel because you had the time to teach weather things instead of just getting to the point.  So apologies for those that don't care for the color commentary, but the following is a great explainer for our weather through Monday.  To paraphrase that great literary work, you could call this, "The Tale of Two Forecasts".

There are two very different events ahead in short order. ACA is under a Winter Weather Advisory (click HERE) until 12 noon Sunday.  It's calling for a mixed bag of precipitation that may start as snow, mix in sleet, then maybe some freezing rain, before going to all rain later on Sunday.  The Winter Storm Warnings are a little south and lot E/NE of Haywood County, all thanks to a CAD situation that simply won't reach as far west as us.

CAD event diagram

When high pressure is perfectly placed around PA/NY or the Great Lakes region, the clockwise flow sends down cold Canadian air.  Cold air, being heavier than warm air, pushes SW along the ground, like cold Karo syrup. The lower the elevation the better, though some of the cold air will make it up into the central and northern NC mountains.  In this situation, there simply won't be enough energy to get the cold air to fully entrench in Haywood County, hence our mixed bag of precipitation for this first part.  And IF we got some decent accumulation, all we have to do is wait Nature out and let the rain wash it away. Slick roads overnight and early Sunday morning? A good possibility, so heads up if you must travel.

NW flow event diagram

Ah, but the second part is much more problematic for Haywood County.  It will be a NW flow event, which is what the vast majority of our snows are, especially this winter.  This particular storm is an expansive low pressure that has brought snow to much of the country already, and as it slowly churns to the mid/north Atlantic coastline, the counter-clockwise spin will usher in much colder NW winds and moisture.  That moisture, once it lifts into the mountains from TN (orographic uplift) will turn into bands of snow showers that, given the perfect trajectory down the I-40 corridor, can accumulate quickly.  Current advisories and warnings are only for the first part; undoubtedly there will a new set published Sunday, and I am on the mountain for all of this.  I expect a Winter Storm Warning for ACA for late Sunday night through Monday, for 2-4" of snow for the upper half of ACA.

So, I'm not too concerned about this first part for us, since it will eventually improve on it's own.  Stay tuned, though, for another update/post Sunday.

Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ACA

Well, the Winter Storm Warning is for the upper half of Apple Creek Acres, above 3500' (blue roof house), with a Winter Weather Advisory below 3500'.  That's purely a differentiation of possible snow amounts.  You can read the specifics HERE.

The biggest impact will be locations closer to the TN border than we are. Accumulations for ACA should be less than the warning criteria, with the GFS model painting up to 3" up high, and 0.5-1" down low for us, specifically. Our warm temperatures heretofore have warmed the ground and roads and will help with initial melting before accumulation begins, but that also means this snow may have an icy belly, which greatly complicates travel on the mountain.

Onset will be after dark, and should tail off Thursday morning.  Bitterly cold temperatures, enhanced by windy conditions, will be in place all of Thursday into Friday morning, where lows will be in the teens. 

I know this will excite you....we have an even better chance for accumulating snow Saturday night into Sunday morning. I'll post more about that Saturday morning sometime.  

I won't be on the mountain for this event, so if you have any road conditions to report, feel free to put them in the comment section below.  If I get any other information, I'll post it here, as well.

Bob

HEADS UP: SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT

12-23-20 dawn (click to enlarge)

I don't know about you, but having this rain and milder temps is much appreciated. Staymon Road had been snow/ice covered for too long...the fill-in mail carrier didn't bring Staymon's mail Monday, so I picked it up at the post office and let them know all of our roads are passable. For now....

A strong cold front will pass through Wednesday night, crashing our temperatures for about 48 hours.  On the backside will be some snow, which for ACA at the moment is in the 0.5"-2" range by daylight Thursday.  Nothing huge, but a driving nuisance nonetheless. It also appears snow will reach down into the valleys, as well.

I'll update tomorrow night sometime around 9pm once I get home. Not sure if we'll have a Winter Weather Advisory, but it's a strong possibility.  Stay tuned...

Bob

ROAD UPDATE

 This is a quick update for Apple Creek Road from Staymon Road down to our entrance. While there were only a couple of minor areas of snow and ice, the road is in quite good shape. I had no issues except on Staymon itself, but that's a perpetual ice skating rink when snow gets on it. LOL!

I imagine there were more of you than the one I saw from above getting out to add some salt above the upper hairpin curve... I appreciate those of you that went out and helped some of the bad areas improve. Unfortunately, I simply can't speak for road conditions above Staymon. Feel free to put a comment at the end here if you have any updates or information that would be helpful to others.

Bob

ROAD CONDITIONS, INFO, ETC.

So much for getting skunked...I had roughly 2" overnight, adding insult to injury.  Here is the following message from the board about Apple Creek Road:

"Just a quick update on the road. We applied 1000 lbs. of salt to the road yesterday afternoon. Today there are places that it is working well and places where it is extremely treacherous.    We advise staying off the road until the salt has time to work."

I've already had two reports of vehicles sliding off into a ditch, but both eventually got out.  We are done with precipitation for a few days, but each night we'll have refreeze occurring, and at least for today very limited melting in shaded areas.  Ice is the Great Equalizer, and in the snap of a finger your vehicle can become a lead sled. Case in point:

Above are driveway pawprints from my 45 pound pup after I swept and blew over them this morning. Imagine your 2,200 pound car going over the snow and how much more compressed it would be....and there is the huge problem on our steep roads. The more traffic, the more compressed ice tracks, which melts more slowly than undisturbed snow.

It has been a whammy dealing with our back to back to back snows these past few days. I would like to ask that if you live on or close to Apple Creek Road, go out and check the condition of the road around there.  If it has a bad icy area, and you can spot one of our plastic bins of salt, please scatter some to help improve that area. I travel with salt in my car for that very reason. Working together, we can help make the road safer for everyone.

Bob

UGH...A BIT MORE SNOW IN THE WORKS (UPDATE)

7'1" Jay Huff (blue) and 6'8" Aamir Simms 

"IT'S A BIRD!"  "IT'S A PLANE!"  "NO, IT'S MORE SNOWFLAKES!!!"  My charter this weekend was to take Virginia to play Clemson last night, giving me the opportunity to dust off my sports photography skills...and why I wasn't here for all the snow fun.  Well, excepting the fun I had driving up at 2am this morning (read prior post for more).  

[2:50pm UPDATE - Apple Creek Road was plowed and salted this afternoon]

This is like the winter of the Fruitcake Snow...the gift that keeps on giving.  Yet another piece of energy pinwheeling around that huge low above the Great Lakes is slated to move through WNC this evening and possibly into Monday morning.  The NWS has hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory, calling for 1-3" above 3500', and a possible heavy dusting to 0.5" below that, almost identical to what fell here Saturday (except there was daytime melting to limit amounts). The Advisory starts tonight at 10pm and runs until noon Monday. For ACA, 1-2" for the upper half seems right, with the 3-4" totals relegated to elevations above 4500'. 

Temperatures will be well down into the 20s tonight, so that means more potential slipping and sliding on ACA roads should the snow fall and accumulate, even if a little.  Monday's highs will be much like today, though maybe a couple of degrees colder.  Yippee.

As always, I'll update with any pertinent changes worth mentioning this evening, or an update in the morning.  If we get skunked, I doubt we'll have any complaints.

Bob

UPDATE ON ROAD CONDITIONS

 Ah, to climb our mountain at 2am after a light snow...  :-/

Once again, we have a CLEAR testament that even with just 0.25"-<1" of snow on Apple Creek Road that driving can be downright scary.  This was a very fine, powdery snow, given the cold temperatures.  Put the weight of a vehicle on that snow, it will compress tightly to an ice layer, and the sliding begins.  There were numerous tell-tale signs of sliding and fishtailing and even into ditches...and it looked like a fair number of vehicles attempted to go up and/or down. Folks, it's a skating rink right now, for all practical purposes.

Currently, just on the downhill side of the mirror curve, there is a Roto-Rooter Van off on the right as you go downhill, so heads up for that as your round that bend. Because I turned on Staymon Road, I have no report to offer beyond there, nor have I received any reports beyond there.

I've got a great 4WD and traction system, just maybe not the best snow tires...but I had a couple of slippery areas, though nothing that overly concerned me.  That is until I got to my driveway, which is a hell all it's own.  Made it halfway up to a big steep turn and was stopped for the night...thankfully, just 80 feet from the house.  I called that a victory given the trip.

To be blunt, Apple Creek Road is wreck-worthy at the moment.

Here is the message once again from the board about any road treatment.  I will add that while they might plow/scrape Apple Creek Road, there wasn't enough snow to warrant plowing gravel side roads:

"[ACA is] on the schedule for the road to be plowed and/or salted once the snow stops. This will most likely be sometime Sunday."

If you must travel in or out tomorrow, godspeed. It's not recommended unless you absolutely must travel, at least until the road gets treated.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PROGRESS

 I won't be back on the mountain until after midnight, and more than likely will make a quick new post about any road conditions I need to mention.

Our Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 7am Sunday for up to 3" of snow.  So far, the snow is coming from the W/WSW which greatly limits our accumulations.  The Smokies and the Plott Balsams will pick up most of it, which the 3" was called for.

Should the direction become NW, which I don't see happening except maybe toward the end, then snow may lay down a little better.  I'd say for us a heavy dusting low and 1 to maybe 2" for the upper half of ACA. 

I suppose two good things are happening.....limited snow...and no icy belly like the last two events.  Just keep in mind even the lightest coatings can get very slippery, hence my update once I get home. Winds later today will only add to that chill...and it won't be until Tuesday we warm some in the afternoon.

Something to consider: I had to put a stop order for mail online for the post office since they won't attempt Staymon Road, a skating rink unless you have the right vehicle. That way, should you need to do that, you can go by there with your order # and pick up your mail and packages.  It will help to be specific about any large packages that you may be looking for, they told me.

Bob

SNOW CHANCES

 Apologies for such a short post on short notice. I will be off the mountain for these events. We have two very quick hitting snow events coming in, although they are minor. But we know minor can cause big time traffic headaches on Apple Creek Road.

Just before daybreak Friday, we could see some lightly accumulating snow to a quarter or half an inch. I will update if I see any more. However, Friday night through most of the day Saturday, certainly above the Blue Roof house line, we could see more accumulating snow. Both the NAM and GFS are going 1-2 inches for here, which I would interpret as 1/2 inch in the lower half of Apple Creek acres and up to 2 inches at the highest elevations of Apple Creek Acres around 4,000 ft. 

The temperatures will be very cold through this weekend, so melting is not going to be occurring. Our side roads, which were already a mess, will continue to be a mess, but I would like to think Apple Creek Road may prove to be passable, to some degree.

Feel free to post any road comments in the comments section below, or look up David Stiles Facebook page for Apple Creek Acres and discuss there. I will be back on the mountain about 2 in the morning on Sunday.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ACA

This is a 12:15 p.m. update. The temperature is above freezing at the end of Staymon and we picked up probably 4.5 to almost 5 in of snow, with some melting going on, of course. There is less snow toward the bottom of the mountain, but underneath the snow is a lot of slush. I rode my sled down and headed off to work and the roads around Waynesville and the interstate are in great shape. Mauney has some patches of slush on it, but the interstates and main highways are in perfect shape). 

The incoming snow event has been in the models (NAM, GFS, EURO) for days, now, running anywhere from 8-10" to 3-5", but mostly in the 4-7" range. Heretofore we've only had NW flow events, but this one is coming from the SW from the Gulf coast.

Early this morning our Winter Storm Watch was upped to a Winter Storm Warning.  It won't surprise me to see some snow flakes around supper-time, but snow should start falling in earnest by midnight. Click HERE for the official NWS statement.

Unlike the crashing cold in the last snow, temperatures won't be that far from the freezing mark, opening the possibility of some periods of mixed precipitation toward the beginning and the end of the event. This will be more true in the valley locations, but because this system is swinging up NE from the Gulf of Mexico with a fair amount of moisture, we stand to have our biggest snow yet.  I'm going with 4-8", leaving the top end a bit open-ended as even heavier snow will be within 15 miles of here.

Yesterday I posted a notification from the board concerning anticipated road clearing, so I'm posting it again in this one:

[Apple Creek Road] will be plowed and salted after the snow stops, most likely sometime Saturday. If the forecast amounts hold true, we will plow the side roads, as well. ( No salt on gravel roads, ever). We strongly suggest that all residents and visitors plan on our roads being impassable Friday and Saturday and make preparations now. Anyone who has to travel should leave a vehicle at the bottom of the mountain before the storm starts and walk out. Vehicles may not be parked in the road nor may stranded vehicles be left in the road.

I added to that that if you leave your car on a side road at Apple Creek Road to please park as far to the side as possible so as not to interfere with plowing or other traffic. You could get hit.

As always, I'll update with any pertinent information.

Bob

ROAD PLANS FOR UPCOMING SNOW

The following was given to me to post for residents of Apple Creek Acres, per road treatment as a result of an incoming snow system arriving late Thursday/Friday.  I will be posting a weather-based forecast with amounts and timing Thursday, but this appears to be a slam-dunk for accumulating snow here, be it just 3" or 7".  Here is the road plan for ACA, from the board:

The main road will be plowed and salted after the snow stops, most likely sometime Saturday. If the forecast amounts hold true, we will plow the side roads as well (no salt on gravel roads, ever). We strongly suggest that all residents and visitors plan on our roads being impassable Friday and Saturday and make preparations now. Anyone who has to travel should leave a vehicle at the bottom of the mountain before the storm starts and walk out. Vehicles may not be parked in the road nor may stranded vehicles be left in the road.

I would add to that to please park vehicles at road junctures as far to the side as possible so as not to impede vehicles moving (or sliding) down. There will be another system moving in early next week that may well produce the same scenario.

Bob

MORE SNOW....HERE'S THE GIST (UPDATED)

Peering down toward Lake Junaluska (click to enlarge)

This was supposed to be a La Nina winter here in the Southeast, which is milder all around.  At this point, it's not really coming to pass, yet.  I've got some snow to talk about, so I'll start with today.

Apple Creek Acres is under a Winter Weather Advisory until 10pm tonight for elevations above 3500' (above Dawen Circle). As I type, it's 37 degrees, and of course liquid precip only. The NWS is saying most of the snow will fall above 4,000', so I'm not anticipating any travel issues here in Apple Creek. Travel through higher mountain passes could well become a problem, though.

Late Thursday through early Saturday morning is another matter.  Though still far out (4 days counts as far out!), the GFS and EURO models are all going with 6-8" for ACA, with the NAM just now 'seeing' the event and is at 4-6".  This particular system is one that swings out of Texas into the northern edge of the Gulf of Mexico, then swings NE....these types of systems are where we pick up much bigger accumulations, but the storm track is critical to a hit or a miss.  Add to that a second such storm system early next week...we stand to get solid back to back snows in a week and a half.

With that said, it's still really early, but enough of a 'heads up' to get me to consider what I do Thursday afternoon.  For the first time ever, I may well put my car on Mauney Cove Road as I have a big charter going out Friday that I can't miss.  I have a cheap sled that I would ride down should such a snow develop...seems kind of fun, in a way.

All that to say 'stay tuned'...I'll update when it becomes more clear and makes sense, probably Thursday morning.

Bob