FROM SLUSH TO MORE SNOW

Looking north from Staymon Road this morning 
(click to enlarge)

(This post has been update with the Warning information recently posted as a Watch)

The initial snowfall burst yesterday afternoon was right pretty.  Overnight, as the main moisture field moved in, I got about 2.5" of snow before a heavy sleet and rain band knocked it down to 1-1.5" of pure slush.  Nothing is frozen hard and hopefully we'll melt most of what we have on the roads.

(Click HERE for a list of snow reports, Round #1)

ACA is now under a Winter Storm Warning for elevations above 3500' (the blue roof house).  The lower part of ACA is technically under a Winter Weather Advisory for lesser amounts. This next round will cause us headaches, so prepare today:

Timing:  The Warning now runs from 12am Monday through 1pm Tuesday (starting an hour earlier). This is a long-running event compared to our last little shot.

Temps: This graphic is a very close approximation to what we should experience.  When you have snowpack, temps run colder...when I see a high of 32, I know it will be in the mid 20s at my house:

(click to enlarge)

Amounts: The Warning write-up will have you think this might be our Snowmageddon this winter....but not so fast. The heaviest amounts will be the TN/NC border areas, where 6-12" is likely. At the moment, I don't see but 1-2" for lower ACA and 3-4" for upper ACA. The only way we'd get higher snow totals is if the NW flow sets up coming directly down the I-40 corridor from TN. Not ruling that out...those high totals are almost too close for comfort to ACA.

Gusty winds will be a part of this as well, adding to the wind chill and also tamping down snow totals some. Especially with these incoming cold temps, it's always wise to prepare for a power outage.

Keep in mind nothing will be done to our ACA roads until the snow showers are finished, which at the earliest will be Tuesday afternoon.  As I said earlier, plan ahead today while you can.  Travel on our mountain is expected to be dangerous for a while...and hopefully we won't have any refreeze before the snows arrive. 

Please remember that if you relocate a car ahead of time, make sure that you are as far from any travel lanes as possible.  If you choose an area that's below a steep road section, you may have sliding vehicles coming at you (like the bottom of Staymon).

I'm here for this event, so I'll update as I get pertinent information.  If you have any road reports, etc., feel free to add them in the comments section below.

Bob

WEATHER UPDATE AND MORE...

Let me first tie up some loose ends from questions that have come up recently.  Asplundh is contracted by Duke Energy to take proactive actions to clear powerline right of ways, in hopes of minimizing power outages due to falling timber.  To my knowledge, there is no advance notice of this activity, or at least I've never been aware of one.  And they have the right to do what they need to whenever they want.  While maybe a minor nuisance at times, it is in our best interest if we can minimize power outages.

Mail delivery...I've been round and round lately with the post office and never gotten any satisfactory answers.  We do have a new route driver, Al (I think), but he's been out due to sickness or family issues of late and we've continued to have a mish-mash of fill-in drivers.  I know why I didn't get mail for over two weeks on Staymon, thanks to the never-ending ice-skating rink it was....but in the past few days the roads are perfectly clear and still no mail delivery.  And no satisfactory explanation of why not, either. We're not alone...I've seen all sorts of various posts of poor or non-existent mail delivery in other areas of Haywood County.  The only good answer I know of is to go online and put a hold on your mail for a length of time that suits you and simply go pick it up yourself.

And this tidbit has absolutely nothing to do with ACA, just my job.  I drive motorcoaches for Young Transportation out of Asheville, and am the team driver for the UNC-Asheville men's basketball team.  I just returned early this morning from our trip to Winthrop University in Rock Hill, SC...we slayed the giant last night on their home turf, toppling the longest running undefeated team in the NCAA (21 games). Made for a great trip back, to say the least!

Okay, now to the weather. I enjoyed my 4 years at the Weather Channel because you had the time to teach weather things instead of just getting to the point.  So apologies for those that don't care for the color commentary, but the following is a great explainer for our weather through Monday.  To paraphrase that great literary work, you could call this, "The Tale of Two Forecasts".

There are two very different events ahead in short order. ACA is under a Winter Weather Advisory (click HERE) until 12 noon Sunday.  It's calling for a mixed bag of precipitation that may start as snow, mix in sleet, then maybe some freezing rain, before going to all rain later on Sunday.  The Winter Storm Warnings are a little south and lot E/NE of Haywood County, all thanks to a CAD situation that simply won't reach as far west as us.

CAD event diagram

When high pressure is perfectly placed around PA/NY or the Great Lakes region, the clockwise flow sends down cold Canadian air.  Cold air, being heavier than warm air, pushes SW along the ground, like cold Karo syrup. The lower the elevation the better, though some of the cold air will make it up into the central and northern NC mountains.  In this situation, there simply won't be enough energy to get the cold air to fully entrench in Haywood County, hence our mixed bag of precipitation for this first part.  And IF we got some decent accumulation, all we have to do is wait Nature out and let the rain wash it away. Slick roads overnight and early Sunday morning? A good possibility, so heads up if you must travel.

NW flow event diagram

Ah, but the second part is much more problematic for Haywood County.  It will be a NW flow event, which is what the vast majority of our snows are, especially this winter.  This particular storm is an expansive low pressure that has brought snow to much of the country already, and as it slowly churns to the mid/north Atlantic coastline, the counter-clockwise spin will usher in much colder NW winds and moisture.  That moisture, once it lifts into the mountains from TN (orographic uplift) will turn into bands of snow showers that, given the perfect trajectory down the I-40 corridor, can accumulate quickly.  Current advisories and warnings are only for the first part; undoubtedly there will a new set published Sunday, and I am on the mountain for all of this.  I expect a Winter Storm Warning for ACA for late Sunday night through Monday, for 2-4" of snow for the upper half of ACA.

So, I'm not too concerned about this first part for us, since it will eventually improve on it's own.  Stay tuned, though, for another update/post Sunday.

Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ACA

Well, the Winter Storm Warning is for the upper half of Apple Creek Acres, above 3500' (blue roof house), with a Winter Weather Advisory below 3500'.  That's purely a differentiation of possible snow amounts.  You can read the specifics HERE.

The biggest impact will be locations closer to the TN border than we are. Accumulations for ACA should be less than the warning criteria, with the GFS model painting up to 3" up high, and 0.5-1" down low for us, specifically. Our warm temperatures heretofore have warmed the ground and roads and will help with initial melting before accumulation begins, but that also means this snow may have an icy belly, which greatly complicates travel on the mountain.

Onset will be after dark, and should tail off Thursday morning.  Bitterly cold temperatures, enhanced by windy conditions, will be in place all of Thursday into Friday morning, where lows will be in the teens. 

I know this will excite you....we have an even better chance for accumulating snow Saturday night into Sunday morning. I'll post more about that Saturday morning sometime.  

I won't be on the mountain for this event, so if you have any road conditions to report, feel free to put them in the comment section below.  If I get any other information, I'll post it here, as well.

Bob

HEADS UP: SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT

12-23-20 dawn (click to enlarge)

I don't know about you, but having this rain and milder temps is much appreciated. Staymon Road had been snow/ice covered for too long...the fill-in mail carrier didn't bring Staymon's mail Monday, so I picked it up at the post office and let them know all of our roads are passable. For now....

A strong cold front will pass through Wednesday night, crashing our temperatures for about 48 hours.  On the backside will be some snow, which for ACA at the moment is in the 0.5"-2" range by daylight Thursday.  Nothing huge, but a driving nuisance nonetheless. It also appears snow will reach down into the valleys, as well.

I'll update tomorrow night sometime around 9pm once I get home. Not sure if we'll have a Winter Weather Advisory, but it's a strong possibility.  Stay tuned...

Bob

ROAD UPDATE

 This is a quick update for Apple Creek Road from Staymon Road down to our entrance. While there were only a couple of minor areas of snow and ice, the road is in quite good shape. I had no issues except on Staymon itself, but that's a perpetual ice skating rink when snow gets on it. LOL!

I imagine there were more of you than the one I saw from above getting out to add some salt above the upper hairpin curve... I appreciate those of you that went out and helped some of the bad areas improve. Unfortunately, I simply can't speak for road conditions above Staymon. Feel free to put a comment at the end here if you have any updates or information that would be helpful to others.

Bob

ROAD CONDITIONS, INFO, ETC.

So much for getting skunked...I had roughly 2" overnight, adding insult to injury.  Here is the following message from the board about Apple Creek Road:

"Just a quick update on the road. We applied 1000 lbs. of salt to the road yesterday afternoon. Today there are places that it is working well and places where it is extremely treacherous.    We advise staying off the road until the salt has time to work."

I've already had two reports of vehicles sliding off into a ditch, but both eventually got out.  We are done with precipitation for a few days, but each night we'll have refreeze occurring, and at least for today very limited melting in shaded areas.  Ice is the Great Equalizer, and in the snap of a finger your vehicle can become a lead sled. Case in point:

Above are driveway pawprints from my 45 pound pup after I swept and blew over them this morning. Imagine your 2,200 pound car going over the snow and how much more compressed it would be....and there is the huge problem on our steep roads. The more traffic, the more compressed ice tracks, which melts more slowly than undisturbed snow.

It has been a whammy dealing with our back to back to back snows these past few days. I would like to ask that if you live on or close to Apple Creek Road, go out and check the condition of the road around there.  If it has a bad icy area, and you can spot one of our plastic bins of salt, please scatter some to help improve that area. I travel with salt in my car for that very reason. Working together, we can help make the road safer for everyone.

Bob

UGH...A BIT MORE SNOW IN THE WORKS (UPDATE)

7'1" Jay Huff (blue) and 6'8" Aamir Simms 

"IT'S A BIRD!"  "IT'S A PLANE!"  "NO, IT'S MORE SNOWFLAKES!!!"  My charter this weekend was to take Virginia to play Clemson last night, giving me the opportunity to dust off my sports photography skills...and why I wasn't here for all the snow fun.  Well, excepting the fun I had driving up at 2am this morning (read prior post for more).  

[2:50pm UPDATE - Apple Creek Road was plowed and salted this afternoon]

This is like the winter of the Fruitcake Snow...the gift that keeps on giving.  Yet another piece of energy pinwheeling around that huge low above the Great Lakes is slated to move through WNC this evening and possibly into Monday morning.  The NWS has hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory, calling for 1-3" above 3500', and a possible heavy dusting to 0.5" below that, almost identical to what fell here Saturday (except there was daytime melting to limit amounts). The Advisory starts tonight at 10pm and runs until noon Monday. For ACA, 1-2" for the upper half seems right, with the 3-4" totals relegated to elevations above 4500'. 

Temperatures will be well down into the 20s tonight, so that means more potential slipping and sliding on ACA roads should the snow fall and accumulate, even if a little.  Monday's highs will be much like today, though maybe a couple of degrees colder.  Yippee.

As always, I'll update with any pertinent changes worth mentioning this evening, or an update in the morning.  If we get skunked, I doubt we'll have any complaints.

Bob

UPDATE ON ROAD CONDITIONS

 Ah, to climb our mountain at 2am after a light snow...  :-/

Once again, we have a CLEAR testament that even with just 0.25"-<1" of snow on Apple Creek Road that driving can be downright scary.  This was a very fine, powdery snow, given the cold temperatures.  Put the weight of a vehicle on that snow, it will compress tightly to an ice layer, and the sliding begins.  There were numerous tell-tale signs of sliding and fishtailing and even into ditches...and it looked like a fair number of vehicles attempted to go up and/or down. Folks, it's a skating rink right now, for all practical purposes.

Currently, just on the downhill side of the mirror curve, there is a Roto-Rooter Van off on the right as you go downhill, so heads up for that as your round that bend. Because I turned on Staymon Road, I have no report to offer beyond there, nor have I received any reports beyond there.

I've got a great 4WD and traction system, just maybe not the best snow tires...but I had a couple of slippery areas, though nothing that overly concerned me.  That is until I got to my driveway, which is a hell all it's own.  Made it halfway up to a big steep turn and was stopped for the night...thankfully, just 80 feet from the house.  I called that a victory given the trip.

To be blunt, Apple Creek Road is wreck-worthy at the moment.

Here is the message once again from the board about any road treatment.  I will add that while they might plow/scrape Apple Creek Road, there wasn't enough snow to warrant plowing gravel side roads:

"[ACA is] on the schedule for the road to be plowed and/or salted once the snow stops. This will most likely be sometime Sunday."

If you must travel in or out tomorrow, godspeed. It's not recommended unless you absolutely must travel, at least until the road gets treated.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PROGRESS

 I won't be back on the mountain until after midnight, and more than likely will make a quick new post about any road conditions I need to mention.

Our Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 7am Sunday for up to 3" of snow.  So far, the snow is coming from the W/WSW which greatly limits our accumulations.  The Smokies and the Plott Balsams will pick up most of it, which the 3" was called for.

Should the direction become NW, which I don't see happening except maybe toward the end, then snow may lay down a little better.  I'd say for us a heavy dusting low and 1 to maybe 2" for the upper half of ACA. 

I suppose two good things are happening.....limited snow...and no icy belly like the last two events.  Just keep in mind even the lightest coatings can get very slippery, hence my update once I get home. Winds later today will only add to that chill...and it won't be until Tuesday we warm some in the afternoon.

Something to consider: I had to put a stop order for mail online for the post office since they won't attempt Staymon Road, a skating rink unless you have the right vehicle. That way, should you need to do that, you can go by there with your order # and pick up your mail and packages.  It will help to be specific about any large packages that you may be looking for, they told me.

Bob

SNOW CHANCES

 Apologies for such a short post on short notice. I will be off the mountain for these events. We have two very quick hitting snow events coming in, although they are minor. But we know minor can cause big time traffic headaches on Apple Creek Road.

Just before daybreak Friday, we could see some lightly accumulating snow to a quarter or half an inch. I will update if I see any more. However, Friday night through most of the day Saturday, certainly above the Blue Roof house line, we could see more accumulating snow. Both the NAM and GFS are going 1-2 inches for here, which I would interpret as 1/2 inch in the lower half of Apple Creek acres and up to 2 inches at the highest elevations of Apple Creek Acres around 4,000 ft. 

The temperatures will be very cold through this weekend, so melting is not going to be occurring. Our side roads, which were already a mess, will continue to be a mess, but I would like to think Apple Creek Road may prove to be passable, to some degree.

Feel free to post any road comments in the comments section below, or look up David Stiles Facebook page for Apple Creek Acres and discuss there. I will be back on the mountain about 2 in the morning on Sunday.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ACA

This is a 12:15 p.m. update. The temperature is above freezing at the end of Staymon and we picked up probably 4.5 to almost 5 in of snow, with some melting going on, of course. There is less snow toward the bottom of the mountain, but underneath the snow is a lot of slush. I rode my sled down and headed off to work and the roads around Waynesville and the interstate are in great shape. Mauney has some patches of slush on it, but the interstates and main highways are in perfect shape). 

The incoming snow event has been in the models (NAM, GFS, EURO) for days, now, running anywhere from 8-10" to 3-5", but mostly in the 4-7" range. Heretofore we've only had NW flow events, but this one is coming from the SW from the Gulf coast.

Early this morning our Winter Storm Watch was upped to a Winter Storm Warning.  It won't surprise me to see some snow flakes around supper-time, but snow should start falling in earnest by midnight. Click HERE for the official NWS statement.

Unlike the crashing cold in the last snow, temperatures won't be that far from the freezing mark, opening the possibility of some periods of mixed precipitation toward the beginning and the end of the event. This will be more true in the valley locations, but because this system is swinging up NE from the Gulf of Mexico with a fair amount of moisture, we stand to have our biggest snow yet.  I'm going with 4-8", leaving the top end a bit open-ended as even heavier snow will be within 15 miles of here.

Yesterday I posted a notification from the board concerning anticipated road clearing, so I'm posting it again in this one:

[Apple Creek Road] will be plowed and salted after the snow stops, most likely sometime Saturday. If the forecast amounts hold true, we will plow the side roads, as well. ( No salt on gravel roads, ever). We strongly suggest that all residents and visitors plan on our roads being impassable Friday and Saturday and make preparations now. Anyone who has to travel should leave a vehicle at the bottom of the mountain before the storm starts and walk out. Vehicles may not be parked in the road nor may stranded vehicles be left in the road.

I added to that that if you leave your car on a side road at Apple Creek Road to please park as far to the side as possible so as not to interfere with plowing or other traffic. You could get hit.

As always, I'll update with any pertinent information.

Bob

ROAD PLANS FOR UPCOMING SNOW

The following was given to me to post for residents of Apple Creek Acres, per road treatment as a result of an incoming snow system arriving late Thursday/Friday.  I will be posting a weather-based forecast with amounts and timing Thursday, but this appears to be a slam-dunk for accumulating snow here, be it just 3" or 7".  Here is the road plan for ACA, from the board:

The main road will be plowed and salted after the snow stops, most likely sometime Saturday. If the forecast amounts hold true, we will plow the side roads as well (no salt on gravel roads, ever). We strongly suggest that all residents and visitors plan on our roads being impassable Friday and Saturday and make preparations now. Anyone who has to travel should leave a vehicle at the bottom of the mountain before the storm starts and walk out. Vehicles may not be parked in the road nor may stranded vehicles be left in the road.

I would add to that to please park vehicles at road junctures as far to the side as possible so as not to impede vehicles moving (or sliding) down. There will be another system moving in early next week that may well produce the same scenario.

Bob

MORE SNOW....HERE'S THE GIST (UPDATED)

Peering down toward Lake Junaluska (click to enlarge)

This was supposed to be a La Nina winter here in the Southeast, which is milder all around.  At this point, it's not really coming to pass, yet.  I've got some snow to talk about, so I'll start with today.

Apple Creek Acres is under a Winter Weather Advisory until 10pm tonight for elevations above 3500' (above Dawen Circle). As I type, it's 37 degrees, and of course liquid precip only. The NWS is saying most of the snow will fall above 4,000', so I'm not anticipating any travel issues here in Apple Creek. Travel through higher mountain passes could well become a problem, though.

Late Thursday through early Saturday morning is another matter.  Though still far out (4 days counts as far out!), the GFS and EURO models are all going with 6-8" for ACA, with the NAM just now 'seeing' the event and is at 4-6".  This particular system is one that swings out of Texas into the northern edge of the Gulf of Mexico, then swings NE....these types of systems are where we pick up much bigger accumulations, but the storm track is critical to a hit or a miss.  Add to that a second such storm system early next week...we stand to get solid back to back snows in a week and a half.

With that said, it's still really early, but enough of a 'heads up' to get me to consider what I do Thursday afternoon.  For the first time ever, I may well put my car on Mauney Cove Road as I have a big charter going out Friday that I can't miss.  I have a cheap sled that I would ride down should such a snow develop...seems kind of fun, in a way.

All that to say 'stay tuned'...I'll update when it becomes more clear and makes sense, probably Thursday morning.

Bob