LIMITED UPDATE

 I'm out of town the next couple of days, so I'm not able to see things for myself. I know the power is out, and as I am typing here at 9:30 in the morning, I have got no update from Duke as to what time the outage may be fixed. I do know it seemed to affect 60 families when I reported it, which sounds like an Apple Creek and Mauney Cove situation. There's some light ice on the driveway and certainly on the decks, elevated surfaces, and vegetation. It should switch over to rain and hopefully wash the ice away.

However, tonight, there may be a situation where there may be more freezing conditions. Our winter storm warning was extended until 7 in the morning Friday from 7 p.m. tonight. Please use Extreme Caution if you must head out and if you have any observations, feel free to put them in the comments section. If I get information from people, I will put in the comments sections, as well. And forgive me for all the typos as I am using voice typing to speed this up!

Bob

WINTER STORM WATCH....UGH

Sunrise burst of color 2-16-21, end of Staymon (click to enlarge)

ACA is under a Winter Storm Watch as I type, which will transition to a Winter Storm Warning later today. It runs from 7p Wednesday through 7pm Thursday, calling for a mix of wintry precipitation that ultimately favors more sleet and freezing rain than snow for ACA.  

I won't be on the mountain for this event, but for those on the mountain, you may have some slippery stuff to deal with Thursday morning. What warmth in our roads has chilled considerably as I have 17 degrees as I type. The original forecast had temps rising and precipitation transitioning to rain here....but if that process slows, it makes for an extended mess on the mountain for ACA. Like the last event that didn't affect Haywood County, a 'warm nose' should work in from the SW, keeping big icing problems in the Piedmont and northern NC mountains.

Please add road conditions and any problems in the comments section...and I'll update as I can from the road.

Bob

ROAD PLAN

 The board has asked me to pass the following information along concerning Apple Creek roads. The plower will plow Apple Creek Road either this evening or tomorrow morning. All the side roads will be plowed tomorrow, as well. A couple of volunteers have taken care of some portions already (thank y'all!).

Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ACA

Mauney Cove and Lake J (click to enlarge)

TREE CREW UPDATE:  Before I get into our incoming wintry mess, I want to pass along some info from the tree crew.  They are presently working their way down Apple Creek Road to the entrance (but not today, Saturday).  Once they finish with the main road, they are going to go back to the top and start working the side roads all the way down. They'll be up here for some time to come, in one place or another.  Just a heads up for that.

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Well, just what most of us don't want, yet another snow system to stymie travel, mail delivery, etc. This one is a southern system that typically brings more snow than our NW flow stuff and should give us the most snow thus far.  The good news is that the core of the polar air first slated to get here won't be getting here at all.  The bad news is that being on the edge of the arctic air, we get the cold temps and a low pressure coming out of the Gulf of Mexico that will ride along that arctic boundary, which ushers in more moisture, hence more accumulations.

The good news is that the 6-12" totals now are forecast to be half-that, in the 3-6" range.  The bad news is that's because the higher snow totals, which some will see early on, will be compacted by sleet and freezing rain. Yucky-doodle in every respect. My work today was canceled so I won't be giving a report or dealing with driving up the mountain at midnight tonight. Time to prepare and hunker down.

ACA is under a Winter Storm Warning from 6pm Saturday through 12 noon on Sunday. With no demarcation really between higher and lower elevations, the Warning is a broad-brush stroke of 3-6" with locally higher amounts of heavy snow, then tempered with some sleet and possibly freezing rain as the warm nose moves in from the SW early Sunday. My somewhat favored GFS model has ACA solidly in a 5-8" band, and the earlier hot-n-heavy NAM has scaled back to 4-6". Naturally, the higher up you are, the more accumulation you should get.  I'm looking for 5-7" here at the end of Staymon.

I suppose some other good news is that bitterly cold temps will not come in afterwards.  Chilly, yes, brutally cold, no.  Sunshine should pop out Sunday afternoon and highs for a lot of us should go above 32 degrees. After refreeze, Monday's temps should get into the 40s if you're in the sunshine.

Plowing and salting will be done once the precipitation ends, and I'll pass that along once I hear from the board. Make the most of your daylight hours in preparing for our umpteenth winter wonderland. I think you might even find a football game or something to watch on TV...

Bob

TREE WORK (AND SNOW...AGAIN)

(FRIDAY A.M. - ACA roads are icy from last night's sleet and freezing rain. Please use caution if you must travel our early.  Conditions should improve in a matter of hours. Staymon is very icy, and Apple Creek Road is, as well.)

As some of you know and e crews are working very hard clearing out a tremendous amount of timber and branches away from the power lines. They've been contracted by Duke Energy to do so and have full rights to do what they need to do wherever and whenever it is best to do so. I have talked with a couple of the crew members at length and they are very nice professionals. They're doing a great job.

While there is no set time in particular, they're roughly coming up about 7:30 in the morning and leaving later than 5 PM. They want to be as courteous as possible for those needing to pass by on Apple Creek Road, but it is easier said than done when they have to move multiple large trucks with lift bucket equipment, the chipper machine and truck, and supervisor pickups and move them up into driveways or off into side roads. It's very time-consuming for them to do that. The more they have to stop to let traffic by and then reset their equipment, the longer they are going to be on our Mountain doing this type of work.

 ***The board has asked me to pass along to anyone traveling the upper parts of Apple Creek to please try to consolidate trips so that you aren't going up and down multiple times a day. The less time that we interrupt them, the quicker they will get their work done and be on their way to the next job location. The ultimate bottom line is that their work will help not only ensure that our power outage chances are greatly reduced, but it will also let more precious winter sunlight onto our roads as well. That's to our benefit in a big way. 

Thanks in advance for everyone's continued patience. For inquiring minds who wish to know, no, I have no idea how many more days they will need to finish their job here in Apple Creek. But the more we allow them to do the work, the sooner that end will be.

NOTE: I'm pretty sure we are in for our biggest snow of this season moving in Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.  I know, right? The NAM is hot and heavy at 6-10", GFS is solid in 5-8", and the EURO is 4-6". I'll probably try and pull together a longer discussion late tonight, and then update it Saturday with a follow-up post.  I'll be on the road then, returning to our mountain just short of midnight (crossing fingers). Prepare now.  Oh, and that Polar Vortex threat won't make it here, at least the coldest part.  We're cold, but no single digits ahead. 

Bob

CROSSING FINGERS...

 If my driveway is any indication of the improvements on Apple Creek Road, we're in surprisingly good shape considering the cold and extra snow we got last night. I cleared and salted my icy driveway late yesterday And while covered this morning, it's now completely clear of snow.  Official word is the salt on Apple Creek Road has done the same! 2WD should be okay on Apple Creek Road, but just beware of refreeze tonight and some slick spots.

I had a very fun ride down Apple Creek Road on my sled at 7:30am. I had my GoPro on a headband And I can't wait to look at the footage and edit it down. Assuming it's a fun one, I'll post it on the blog later.

Just keep in mind the side roads will remain mostly snow covered for a while. After a cold night tonight, tomorrow afternoon's temperature should be warmer yet.  Too, the sun angle is getting a little higher, and we'll take all the help we can get.

Bob

5AM UPDATE

While we dodged the snow bullet for most of the day yesterday (except that pre-dawn burst of about 1" at my house).  That all changed overnight as I've gotten 2" more and snow is still falling.  I received this paraphrased  message last night from the HOA board that Apple Creek Road was treated with half a ton of salt late Monday.  The HOA has asked for everyone's patience to let the salt do it's job and to not use the salt boxes, as more is not better.

It's 21 degrees, and today's high may be only equal to yesterday's high, with a good chance it will be colder.  Tonight's lows should dip down into the teens before highs trying to get above freezing.  All that to say don't look for Apple Creek Road to be clear for some time. This is just another insult to injury for all we've experienced this winter.  Welcome to our mountain.  :-)

That means (for some of us) no mail delivery, no propane deliveries, no package deliveries, you name it. The forecast has precipitation Thursday night which should be a very cold rain. Some rain Friday, and Friday night may well have some light snow for us.  Ditto for Saturday night.  By Sunday, we will be treated with a polar vortex crashing down, with potentially the coldest temperatures we've had in 3-4 years. Monday morning's forecast low is currently 7 degrees.  I'll update all that later this week.

My car is at the bottom of ACA, and I'll be sledding down to it early this morning.  I will try to make a quick addendum from my phone on road conditions in ACA, Mauney Cove, etc.  I may not be able to stop and write that until 830am or so.  

I certainly use Google Maps and Waze to check traffic conditions a lot in my work, but another good one to check before heading out is the interactive NCDOT Travel/Traffic maps HERE. You can toggle between conditions, incidents, snow/ice, etc. Most of the cameras are working...I just checked the lovely traffic jam near Harmon Den thanks to an accident, typical of The Gorge in weather like this.

Patience, y'all. If I knew where I could buy a huge box of patience, I'd do it in a heartbeat.  Oh, wait....but then it couldn't be delivered.

Bob