CHRISTMAS EVE...

Apparently the snow-over-ice issue was mostly above the double-hairpin curve.  I finally got my driveway in useable shape to head into town on errands Friday, though Staymon Road is slippery. I've only gotten down to -6 degrees this morning, so not the coldest I've seen over the years....but suffice it to say I'm glad the wind isn't blowing any harder now!

Speaking of wind, for those that like numbers, click HERE to read the ranked NWS reports of maximum winds in the GSP forecast area.  I was surprised that I kept power on, though some Duke Energy trucks did travel above Staymon Road, so someone must have had a power issue (hopefully short-lived).

Thankfully there is no other precipitation forecast while we are in the deep freeze.  The wind advisories peter out Christmas morning, and it looks like most of us in ACA will go above 32 degrees Monday.  By Thursday and Friday, highs will be in the mid 50s to around 60, so keep the faith.  All will be sunny and dry through the week.

Whatever and however you celebrate this season, I wish everyone good health (not easily come by these days) and safe times.  I'll leave you with one of my favorite videos and songs:  The Platters singing "White Christmas"...

Click HERE

Bob

BITTER COLD, WIND, AND A KISS OF SNOW....

3:30am Friday:  Everything below stands.  It transitioned from rain to heavy sleet around 230am to snow.  NOT a good situation as that means below any white will be ice.  Temp just dropped from 32 to 29 in just a few minutes.  Wind is the strongest I've seen/heard in a long time, already with a loud noise on the roof from part of a tree.  And so begins Mr. Toad's Wild Ride....

(I'll get to the incoming, serious weather in a moment. I made a 5:30pm update at the bottom)... 

I decided to go to Lake J yesterday to hopefully add a Bufflehead to my Bucket List of ducks.  Quite often, Buffies are waaaaay out in the middle of the lake, out of my camera range.  On rare occasion I've seen them closer to shore...alas, they did not cooperate.  However....I feel kind of stupid that I'd never realized there were Double-crested Cormorants at the lake, which I first saw a couple of weeks ago.  In well over 10 years I've never seen them, or simply overlooked 'em.  So I first present you with a handsome one (click to enlarge):

Double-crested Cormorant at Lake Junaluska

For the past 3 years (and now 4 after Christmas), Lake Junaluska has been drained mainly to dredge the upper basin.  It has put a whammy on the Atlantic Flyway migrations here as the species and numbers have plummeted, sadly, as they go elsewhere.  However, there are always a few who hang around, and I got to enjoy photographing Ring-necked Ducks in several locations.  They're diving ducks, so it's like playing Whack-A-Mole as to when and where they pop back up. In no particular order are a few shots of mostly drakes with a couple of hens joining in (as with any pics on here, click to enlarge) :

Ring-necked drake coming up from a dive

(We now return to the regularly scheduled forecast:)

They say a picture paints a thousand words...start writing...:

Click to enlarge

Enjoy what relative warmth we have today through tonight.  Around 3am or so is when we fall into the Rabbit Hole.  First, prepare for power outages.  Charge batteries, have flashlights and candles ready, and whatever you need to stay warm.  The wind is forecast to be very gusty and strong as the cold front passes through and well behind it. Downed trees are quite possible. The temperatures will plummet very quickly with the passage, and wind chills here in ACA will most likely run from -10 to -20 degrees.  The numbers above tell the story...coldest highs I will have seen in my time here in ACA.  The coldest morning I've recorded was -9 degrees many years ago, and I may well give that a run for the money.  Friday is a brutal, brutal day.

Insofar as the official NWS notifications, click HERE for all the advisories (new link as of 5:30pm).  Interestingly, none of the advisories talk about precipitation, only winds, temperatures, and wind chills.  There simply are too many variations to try and list them here...suffice it to say it will be dangerously cold, potentially slippery, and wind chills that will make you think you're at the Arctic Circle.

*UPDATE* This is the updated addendum.  It warmed up nicely today, so the roads have some added energy that may help at the onset of precipitation and dropping temps.  In short order, that benefit will go bye-bye, but we'll take any gift we can get.

Precipitation will begin as light rain around 10pm.  Switchover to light snow should be around 12am-2am.  The amount of snow remains at a dusting to 1" on the topside, higher toward the TN border.  It looks like the snow will move in from the west, not the northwest, which means the Smokies block a good bit of our intended moisture.

Keep in mind, with the crashing cold...what sticks stays, and road salt will do absolutely nothing as it will be well below workable range.  If you have the sub-zero salts from Walmart, Lowe's, etc., they should work on your driveway; I'm talking about the road salt our plower/salter uses.  Precipitation should be a done deal before sunrise.

Wind and cold, wind and cold...and hopefully no power outages.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT

5:50am UPDATE:  My gauges are at 32 and 33 degrees.  No icing here at the end of Staymon on vegetation, deck, etc.  The BIG story next is wind and cold, along with light frozen precipitation Thursday night into early Friday morning.  I'll post more on that later this morning.

-----------------------------------------------

This is most likely Part 1 of II in terms of winter weather notifications.  The second part will be for Thursday night into at least Friday.

Tonight:  ACA is in a Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm until 9am for accumulating freezing rain, basically above 3500' elevation (above the blue roof house).  Should it begin accumulating on the roads, then serious travel issues are likely until it switches to all rain Thursday (for a while).  

This is a situation that is more likely as you approach the southern escarpment of the Blue Ridge, and almost a non-issue the closer you get to the TN border.  In that sense we may be spared here in ACA.  As is always the case in icing events, the first sign is icing on vegetation, followed by icing on cars, decks, stairs.  Roads are the last to succumb to ice.

I will be on the mountain the whole time, so will update as needed.

Thursday night into Friday morning is when the Part II should show up, which is the rapidly crashing temperatures with (limited) back-side snow.  Oftentimes when we have rain, then the cold and snow, there is a period of no precipitation and evaporation takes place in the cold dry air, avoiding an icy base.  I'm not convinced we'll have that luxury, late tomorrow.

Why so little snow to come? (heavy dusting to MAYbe an inch)  The jet stream will have stayed too long on the west side of the Appalachians.  We'll get the bitter cold, but there will be little moisture to work with, and the ensuing northwest flow wrapping around the Great Lakes low pressure looks to have little moisture for us.  

BUT...the caveat, especially with anything icy....it takes very little to send a car off a road.  I'll post more on tomorrow night tomorrow when the National Weather Service updates the forecast concerns.

Bob

CHILLY WEEKEND....BUT JUST WAIT...

For various reasons, I've not been firing my cameras recently, so I figured I'd pull one from the vault.  This was taken many years ago at Lake Junaluska, a Green Heron looking for a meal.  Click to enlarge.

Aside from the one multi-day cold snap recently, the weather has been agreeable in terms of temperatures and lack of frozen stuff (I'm ignoring the gray and rainy days as we needed the rain!).  Looks like a pretty cold but sunny weekend with lows in the teens (Sun-Mon) for some of us and highs that may barely reach 30 degrees for those that stay in the shade.

Late next week, and the reason for my post, is that a very strong cold front looks to pass through next Thursday and crash our Friday morning lows into the single digits, possibly.  Along with that should be a strong northwest flow, but one with more limited moisture.  

Any rain Thursday will most likely switch over to light snow, and depending on how the timing works out it could be a bit icy Friday morning.  At this time snow chances are limited and the EURO model paints a total of less than 0.5" of snow from Thursday night into Saturday.  A good solid kiss of winter without hampering travel

This is all pretty far out (read 'take it with a grain of salt'), but I haven't posted in a good while and thought this might be of interest.

Bob

HAPPY THANKSGIVING, ALL Y'ALL!

 

Golden sunrise from a couple of weeks ago, from home on Staymon Road. (click to enlarge)

SCRAP FROZEN ANYTHING...

 Thankfully, the surface temps not only didn't get as low as forecast, but the warm nose has moved in and temps are ever so slowly climbing.  I had no icy formations on the deck, exposed metal, places that typically freeze first. Well take rain, though!

Bob

"WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...."

 Well, more like 8 days instead of one, but I just love Billie Holiday's version of the title I used.  :-)  The color has been quite wonderful this fall in particular, and while I don't have any ACA news to share, I figured I'd post a ton of pictures since I haven't done that in a while.  Click on any pic to enlarge it.

It was astonishing the difference in the color shift as seen from a pull-out above Maggie Valley heading up to Soco Gap:

Sunday October 9, 2022

Sunday October 16, 2022

And the 10-9-22 Hunter's Moon (aka Blood Moon) was gorgeous but hampered by clouds...but not for a 2-minute window where the moon was in the clear and big and orange before it went more white later in the night.  I set up near the pool area at Lake Junaluska and was not disappointed:

10-09-2022 Blood Moon

...and more pics from the area

...and Elk from Cataloochee Valley

Bull EH2

Bull EH2

Bull EH2

Young male

EH2 with tongue out

Bull from another harem (no ID)

Bull in repose

Yearling female

Bull EH2

Motherly duties

Bob

ANNUAL MEETING AND PROXIES

Barn Swallow near Lake Junaluska Dam

By now lot owners should have received their letter about the upcoming Annual HOA Meeting along with a proxy and a stamped return envelope.  It's critical that a quorum be present at the meeting so that official business can be conducted, a quorum reached with those in attendance plus received proxies (loosely consider them absentee ballots). It's just very important that the board receive proxies from those unable to attend.  Honestly, there is no excuse for not returning proxies, given the included stamped return envelope (just sayin'...).  Thanks in advance for everyone's cooperation in this matter.  :-)

Apple Creek Acres HOA Annual Meeting

August 20, 2022 (Saturday)

10am-12 noon

Waynesville Public Library Auditorium

Bob

"THANK YOU!", ANNUAL BOARD MEETING AND MORE...

The Board is giving a huge shoutout to Chris Martin and Brant Galimore for their hard work beautifying the entrance to Apple Creek Acres.  It was in need of goodly repair and replacement, and it is indeed beautiful.  THANK YOU BOTH!

Yes, it's not yet June, but the process of bringing to your attention the Annual Board Meeting of the Apple Creek Home Owners Association in early August has some legwork to be done well in advance.  

First, letters will be going out on July 1 concerning the specifics of the meeting.  Before that time, there is a Nominating Committee that needs to be formed to help in pulling together a list of potential Board candidates.  If you would be interested in helping on that, please contact a board member.

Or. if you or anyone is interested in serving on the Board (or has questions before saying they're interested!), please contact a board member.  Operators are standing by.  Or not...but they'd love to hear from you all the same.

Bob

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8PM

 I'm not in western NC today, so apologies for my slow posting about a topic most already know.  All of western NC and surrounding areas are under a tornado watch until 8pm tonight.

Lots of isolated, fast-moving cells will continue to approach from the SW, with some bow-echoes trying to form in east TN.  Tornadoes are rare in the mountai s due to terrain disruption of inflowing air currents, but they can occur.  

Stay tuned to some source you trust that can keep you best informed of any dangerous situations developing.  If I'm alerted to any, I'll do my best to update, but I'm doing lots of other things, as well.

Bob

PAVING MONDAY! I'LL EXPLAIN...

 Paving is a 'different' kind of business, at least here in western NC.  The asphalt plants shut down for the winter, and paving can only be done under certain weather conditions (of which ours has been screwy for some time).  There is a lot of complicated equipment and crews that have to be coordinated, as well.  Going from project to project has to be orchestrated so as to not waste time and money...anyone getting paving work done is in large part at the mercy of the paving companies, of which there are very few here.  

And so it is our HOA Board was notified Friday that, lo and behold, the paving company is shooting for this Monday, April 25.  No more advanced warning than that, and though I got an email later on Friday from the board, I've been on two very long charters until now as I type to write this.  So apologies for making a last-minute notice even more last-minute.  

Here's the kicker: in order for the paving to be the most successful, they need to pave the entire width of the road as they go, which means traffic on Apple Creek will be stopped for a good bit of Monday.  The conservative estimate is 830am until 430pm for Apple Creek Road above Altima lane to be fully closed.  In the graphic, Altima Lane has the red marker, so it's a large part of Apple Creek Acres affected.  The circled area is our double-hairpin curves where a lot of the work will be concentrated (and for good reason).  Click photo to enlarge.

Trust me, many of us will be affected in a discomforting way, but it's the nature of the beast.  I'll have to plan ahead and take things to work on away from home...our deck repair crew won't get in if they drag tail in getting here before it's shut down...with our weather delays, it's been a never ending maddening series of disruptive events, but it is for just one day, and the improvement will be quite noticeable.  There is no 'good' time to do this, ever....it's just that we've been afforded a time-frame that doesn't allow for adequate planning.  But that's what we were given.

In short, I could have just said road closed here and when and let it go.  But I wanted to give you a bit more insight as to how this all came about.  I'm one that thinks knowledge is a good thing. :-)  Too, in this situation, I'm just the piano player, as is the board.  If there is any additional information or changes, I'll post it as quickly as possible.

Bob

SNOW STUFF....

Saturday 7am update: ~1.5" here at the end of Staymon.  Driveway was clear and no icy spots, even with the 27-degree temperature.  Steps had a rough icy layer under the snow, but it's also grippy.  The snow, albeit light, made it into the valleys as I can see some white down toward Lake J.  Light snow showers will continue today, but any accumulations should be quite light.  The winds will pick up later today, making for a good wind chill.

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Insofar as my personal records, I've seen sleet at 54 degrees many years ago, and earlier today I saw it snow at 48 degrees.  It's simply indicative of how cold the air is aloft, and how close it is to the ground.

It's gotten colder of course, 35 degrees as I write at the end of Staymon right now.  Clearly, it will all melt...but late overnight tonight, it may open the door for some light accumulations, mostly in the upper half of ACA. My favored models go 1-2", but with temps above 32 and liquid mixing in at times, I really expect zero issues on the roads, and only light accumulations on the non-road surfaces due to melting, if that.

Ultimately, it warms mightily by Monday with highs in the 70s.  However, complicating things to some degree are the winds that will be picking up with the passing of our current cold front.  The Sheep Mountain fire was started by someone burning brush that should not have been doing so...luckily the recent rains quelled that blaze.

On the upswing, this is the 'explosion' time (my words) of wildflowers and greening of the mountain the next couple of weeks.  I'll be posting pics of this spring's wildflowers and such soon.

Bob

BITTER COLD, SNOW...AND VOLUNTEERS

quick update as I'm on the road. ACA under a Winter Storm Warning...looking at data, up the amounts posted by another 1-1.5"

This wintry hit is like a round-house punch in boxing....it's going to hit fast and hard then leaves just as quickly, all things considered.  That said, new Sunday morning lows are now forecasted into the single digits.  Drip your water, cover any early bloomers outside, whatever you need to do.

Timing:  Rain rolls in late tonight ahead of the cold front.  In the pre-dawn hours we will probably see a transition to sleet, and then to snow by daybreak or shortly thereafter.  Snow tapers off in the afternoon as clear skies return late and certainly by nighttime.

Amounts:  I'll go 0.5 to 1.5" in lower Apple Creek, with 2-3" in upper Apple Creek.  All that has one big caveat:  WIND...with whipping winds you will see snow accumulations get blown around, but definitely watch for icy conditions on the roads.  I won't be on the mountain for this one, but I'll keep tabs as best I can and do quick updates from my phone.

Wind and Cold:  Winds will be whipping, and that always brings on the possibility of trees falling and power outages, not to mention dangerous wind chills.  Be prepared for that distinct possibility.  Saturday is just a downright bitter, cold, snowy day, where many in Apple Creek won't see the 30s Saturday afternoon.  Lows Sunday morning are trending colder and colder, down to single digits now...but the saving grace is Sunday afternoon the temps warm up significantly.  Monday morning lows will be in the mid and upper 20s, so if there is good news it's in the quickness of the arctic blast getting out of here.  As I say, March Madness isn't just about basketball: this is also a wacky weather time, every year.

VOLUNTEERS:  The board has asked me to seek volunteers that can help clear out the roadside ditches so that water flows where it should and not out over the road.  Paving costs will soar with the higher petroleum prices, and as an HOA we're looking for every possible volunteer action that can save us $$$.  If you are interested and able, contact a board member.

I would suggest Saturday is NOT the day to start digging, though....

Bob

FRIDAY 11:30pm UPDATE: SNOW AND ROADS

7AM UPDATE:  The NWS Warning has been extended to 9am...upstream snow bands in TN are coming right at us.  I have about 5" here at the end of Staymon.  If our plower reads this, I know you need to turn around at the foot of my driveway, but as I type my car may well be in your way.  I will work on getting it moved in a couple of hours.  To all, it's 14 degrees here and keep in mind that even after plowing the roads here will be dangerously slick as traditional road salt won't work in these temperatures.  My -5 degree magnesium salts will, so I guess I'd better get to work and move my car!   Wheeee......NOT.

(original post ~11:30pm): I came back much later than expected to ACA tonight....once I hit I-40 West in Haywood County, the interstate was lightly covered in snow.  At Exit 27, more of the same.  At Lake J, the right lane was somewhat clear, but the left snow-covered....and Mauney Cove was 100% snow covered.  Apple Creek Road was more of the same, and the depth of the snow increased as I drove up, along with the myriad squiggle tire tracks of 2-wheel drive cars (or AWD?) that never made it to where they were heading.   

Even I started slipping at the very top of Staymon before it flattens to the left, but then made it to the bottom of my driveway that I knew was my dead end for the night.  Yep, just a 200' walk home, no complaints.  

The wind is cranking up, as well.  Down to 21 degrees at the end of Staymon so far.  Approcahing 4" of new snow as I type.... and the snow ain't goin' nowhere (still falling some).  The roads in ACA are snow-covered and SLICK, so please be extra careful.  More Saturday....just wanted to get this up for those of you with "Enquiring Minds".  :-)

Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING...WITH A TWIST

Yes, I was in shorts...I'm a few fries short of a Happy Meal!

ACA is under a WINTER STORM WARNING (click link) from 1pm Friday until 7am Saturday morning.  Heaviest amounts (5-8") should stay along and near the TN border in the high country above 4,000'.  We are being put in the 3-5" range for the upper half of ACA, with 1-3" in the lower half of ACA (in an Advisory, not a Warning).

The 'twist' is the bitterly cold, fast-moving air that crashes in with the snow.  Here at the end of Staymon, I finally reached 40 degrees just a little bit ago, but the ground is cold and largely snow-covered thanks to our NE exposure.  While the precipitation may be liquid or a mix early on, it will quickly go to snow.  When it does, it will stick and stay.

With single digits forecast for lows Saturday morning as well as Sunday morning, don't look for good roads up in ACA for a while.  We homeowners can go to Lowe's or Walmart and buy our bags of -10 to -20 degrees ice melters, but road salt that is spread doesn't work below 25 degrees, unless it's in full sun.  Should we get several inches and it gets scraped, the salt put down won't be doing anything until it warms some.  Have patience, and be very careful.  

Wind chills will be below zero Friday night, so be prepared to bundle up when you head out.  This is one fast, bitter shot of arctic air.  If it makes you feel any better, the coldest I've recorded here was -9 degrees...at least we don't have that.  You're welcome.

I'll probably update and tweak tomorrow closer to lunch...I have two problematic charters Friday and Saturday that I need to closely assess.  Nothing worse than not being able to get back home and having to walk up the mountain in this bitter cold.  Wheeeeeee.   NOT.

Bob

ULTRA-LIGHT SNOW COATING ALL SURFACES...

 Per the NWS, there is only a 20% chance for light snow today....but it's been 100% for a while up on Staymon.  A Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) was only recently posted for us, calling for light snow and light accumulations possible through tonight.  Earlier, I did go into town and back up, and didn't slip one bit...but if this keeps accumulating, beware the 1/2" and thicker snow as the weight of a vehicle could cause sliding.  The residual salt on the road should help, but all surfaces are white.  And we're flying blind in this as this type of situation doesn't show up on radar.  

(click to enlarge)

The hoarfrost in the upper half of ACA is gorgeous!  Should hang around a good while as this is a very cold day with a couple of really cold nights ahead...with single digits possible.

If I come across any updates or other information, I'll put it up.  I am hitting the road around 1pm, and will be pretty much unable to communicate after that.

Bob

MONDAY UPDATE....

Our Winter Storm Warning has been extended until 6pm, but it's a moot point as our flurries are done.  I tallied 14.5" officially at the end of Staymon, but as you can hunt around on this INTERACTIVE MAP, there were some impressive totals from Beech Mountain to Saluda/Flat Rock to Haywood, of course...with a lot of shoveling to do. (Map may open with a world view, so just zoom in to western NC).

The plow is supposedly 'incoming' this afternoon.  Apple Creek Road is snow-covered, of course...I'll post any info as I get it.  Chris Martin (211 Apple Creek Road) wanted me to post that anyone needing to use their driveway to please do so, and to pull up toward the garage to maximize room.  As I cleared my driveway, the quality of snow was extremely fine, and slick once you stepped on a thin layer of it and pressed it down.  I can only imagine a car would be prone to sliding easily once snow cover is thinned down and before salt can work it's magic.

The wind field behind this exiting system rolled in this morning and should calm down after sunset.  So far the power has stayed on, thankfully.  Here are some useful links if you don't have them already:

ACA Facebook page:  

https://www.facebook.com/groups/265323127798634

Duke Energy outage map:

https://outagemap.duke-energy.com/#/current-outages/ncsc

Not that anyone is raring to see more snow, but we may get a few more inches Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.  More on that Wednesday morning.  Temps should get above freezing tomorrow, but refreeze is in our forecast every night.  Black ice will be a serious concern for a good while.

I'll update with any other pertinent travel information as I get it.  Stay tuned.

Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING...NO, REALLY...

 Snow is coming, and quite a bit.  First, here is the WINTER STORM WARNING from the NWS (National Weather Service).  Click HERE to read the official notice.

When I say a foot of snow is likely in ACA, whether it's 10" or 15", it's a LOT of snow.  While there may be periods of sleet and possibly freezing rain to knock the total down, we are in for a solid snow event to eventually set up, nonetheless.  It's possible we see some flakes this afternoon, but the bulwark of the snow arrives midnight-ish and falls through the day on Sunday.  I will be driving back up the mountain tonight around 10pm, and will update here if needed.

We have most of today to get whatever provisions are needed...this will also be a windy event, especially on the backside, so be prepared for power outages, as well.  This snow is expected to have a high water content, hence the big totals, which also burdens weak trees.

Below are the Friday PM runs for 6pm Sunday, with ACA being the white dot.  The EURO and GFS are the favored models, though I should add the NAM has us only in the 3-5" range, but I didn't include that graphic. Click to enlarge.

EURO Friday PM run

GFS Friday PM run

GFS Event Total Friday PM run

Bob

'DUCKY' TODAY, 'FOWL' THIS WEEKEND

Today will be a nice day in comparison to our chill of late. Last week I ventured to Lake Junaluska, but my 'models' were a bit far out and not as sharp as I'd like.  Anyway, the top 3 are Ring-necked drakes, but the bottom one....it came flying in from my left all alone....as best as I can tell it's a juvenile female Pied-bill Grebe.  Supposedly they are around here in the winter, but I've never seen one that I remember. My day's victory.  :-)

I did just read that Lake J will soon be drained for a third year in a row for silt removal in the uppper basin.  While a necessary evil, I can tell you from my experience that the numbers of migratory flyway ducks there have plummetted as a result.  The flocks of Canvasbacks, Redheads, Scaups, and throngs of Coots haven't been back...just the limited group of Ring-necks and a few pairs of Buffleheads, as well as our year-rounders.  Now to the weather...

We could get a light coating of snow Thursday night into Friday morning, with a cold front dropping our temps behind it.  I don't anticipate any issues on our roads, given the relative warmth.  I'll be driving up around 130-2am Friday morning, so if I see any issues I'll make a quick post when I get home.

While we dodged the proverbial bullet on the first two 'snows' (not sure I can call the second event much of one!), late Saturday through Sunday we could well be in for a barn-burner.  Unlike our 'NW flow' events, a classic Colorado-to-Gulf of Mexico low is poised to swing up through Georgia.  That immediately means more moisture...and with a Great Lakes high in place, the necessary cold air will be in place, certainly overnight Saturday through most of Sunday.  Saturday may start off as a wintry mix for a while, all of this subject to changes this early.  Just a heads up for now.

Initial maps are coming in VERY heavy, so I'll watch the trend.  Here is the latest from the Tuesday PM GFS model run (ACA being the black dot).  'Yikes!', if it comes to fruition...1.5' of snow would keep us up on the mountain for a while.  It was an 18" snow many years back that had me start this blog as the same amounts were popping up, and it came to pass one week before Christmas.  I'll update Friday afternoon with the latest details, amounts, and timing.

Bob

GOOD AND COLD

(cell phone shot)

Thanks to sublimation, what minimal snow and ice formed yesterday, a great deal sublimated in last night's relatively frigid, dry air.  With those 'right' conditions, the solid water skips the liquid phase and goes straight to gas/vapor.  Poof, gone...my driveway was clear and what I drove on Apple Creek was similar. I'm good with that!

Now, if only today's internet repair is successful...

bob

WINTER STORM WARNING

330p update:   I was in town until just recently and watched it drop about 10ﾟ in an hour or so. It's it's 32 here at the end of Staymon Road, which is already white again. A vehicle tried to get up but didn't quite make it, whether it was a car or a truck.   Apple Creek road is already getting slushy, certainly on the upper part of Apple Creek Road. We've got a long way to go with this system so use extreme caution If you are going to be out and about. I will update the best I can, but I am still without Internet at this time.

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Heck of a time to not have an Internet connection.  I'm posting the obvious Winter Storm Warning that's in effect from noon today until 7:00 in the morning tomorrow for elevations above 3500' (blue roof house).  For lower elevations it will be a Winter Weather Advisory for the same time frame…. just less accumulations. Amounts will be probably close to what we just had if not a little bit more certainly for the upper portion of Apple Creek acres. The difference is that tomorrow morning temperatures should be down into the teens so much colder. Also, there may be a little bit of sleet or ice mixing in the front side of this system as it moves into our area. I'll try to update as I can and hopefully I will be able to get the internet connection fixed.

MONDAY A.M. UPDATE

 Outside of a few minor NW snow bands, we are done with this event.  Two things greatly helped us keep totals on the lower end (I have ~3" at the end of Staymon).  The biggest factor was the slooooow changeover from rain to snow.  At 3:30am it was still 35 degrees and raining; had the changeover occured at 1am or so as forecast, we'd be in a lot more snow.  A lesser factor were the very strong pre-dawn winds that blew some of the accumulation away.

When I get word on any salting, etc., I'll post it on this page, so check back later and refresh if needed.

In the meantime, here is the preliminary snow totals from around western NC.  Click HERE to see it.

Bob

WINTER STORM UPDATE: 7:30pm SUNDAY

 The latest run of the GFS has, well, gone absolutely bonkers, upping amounts even more (8"-12"! ACA is the red dot).  Not that a model or model run means anything by itself, but the trend for 36 hours has been more, and more, and more.  THAT is worth paying attention to.  Just where the additional moisture would come from to make an 8-12" snow around ACA I'm not necessarily seeing, but we are in line for 5-8" it would seem for upper ACA (less for the lower section).  If you haven't seen my prior post on this storm, check it out as I'm not going to repeat all the information again.  And if you didn't see the post prior to that one, including trail cam footage of a coyote and a bear at my house, check that out as well.  You can read the official NWS Warning details HERE.

Latest Sunday model run GFS

And so we wait.  This is NOT "Snowmageddon" by any stretch, but it is the first big shot of wintry weather for us.  It could be a lot heavier and could be a lot worse...but it will demand respect, all the same.  I'm here on the mountain for this event, so I'll keep you updated as necessary...personally, I LOVE a first snow event, like a kid in a candy store, so I'll be sleeping lightly.  LOL!

Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING - PREP TIME

 Well, here we go with our first solid shot of snow, coming on the heels of our abnormal warmth recently.  The National Weather Service has Apple Creek Acres under a Winter Storm Warning (click on link to see official wording):

WHEN:  10pm Sunday night until 12 noon Monday.

WHAT:  Rain changing over to snow, heavy at times, with strong winds. Changeover appears to be around mid-nightish.  If it's earlier than that, we could be in for the high end amounts.

AMOUNT:  3"-8, highest along TN border and above 4,000 feet.

Luckily, we have today to go get anything you think you might need, the ol' "just in case" scenario.  Snow will taper off early Monday, but the winds and cold temperatures will make for windchills in the teens and possibly single digits.  The sun reappears Monday afternoon, but temps will drop close to 20 degrees by Tuesday morning.  It will stay pretty chilly for several days...with....dare I say....another chance for snow?

Another clipper system will pass through Thursday and by Thursday night there is a chance for a changeover to snow.  At this moment, it doesn't look like much, so I'll address that later this week.

When I first started this blog, after we got hammered by 18" after a forecast of 4"-8", my go-to algorithm maps are the ones I'm posting below, to give you an idea of the model progression and trying to read between the lines, so to speak.  You'll read me talking about 3 main models:  GFS (usually on the mark), NAM (good close to the event), and the EURO (usually best in winter).  For this event, the EURO only recently increased like the bullish GFS, but all pointing to accumulating snow, regardless.  In the following images, ACA is represented by a red dot...click on any image to enlarge.

Saturday AM run GFS

When I wrote yesterday's blog, only the GFS was hot and heavy, and one model does not a storm make.  Hence my hedging on amounts.  But not anymore...

Saturday PM run GFS

12 hours later, the GFS was sticking to its guns and even increasing the amounts.  That makes my ears perk up, the consistency.  Other models were still lagging.

Sunday AM run GFS

12 hours later, the GFS spread the heavy snow up into SW VA, and now showed what is a typical banding of a strong NW flow event.  The TN border and highest elevations will pick up significant snow, with decreasing amounts rather quickly dropping off the farther SW you go.  The banding is very tight around ACA, so amounts can swing a lot depending on wind direction.  Speaking of which...

The three colored lines may not seem like they are that different in orientation, but they are when it comes to snow totals.  A and C represent situations where ACA snow is more limited, being blocked by the higher terrain en route, which orographically takes a lot of snow out of our picture.  But if we get that perfect flow orientation basically down the I-40 corridor from TN, we get higher amounts.  Right now the forecast orientation is more in line with B.

As of last night's run, the EURO has caught up...well, it is now running even hotter:

Sunday PM run EURO

While I will certainly be staying on top of this system and update as necessary, don't forget to join the ACA Facebook page for user-input information: Click HERE.

Bob