[7:30am quick note: My expected amounts for ACA from yesterday (3-5" lower, 5-10" upper, above blue roof home). I don't mention it directly, but because of the bullseye I talk about below I'm letting it stand.]
I'm an early riser, so I headed down to breakfast at 6:15am....then had to do a face plant as weekend breakfast start times are later, in this case 7am. SOOoooooo....a great time to go ahead and post this update (with coffee in hand, of course).
The following is a result of the track of the low...it appears it will come closer to western NC as opposed to staying down around Atlanta and Columbia as it heads to the coast. What does that mean? Warmer lower elevation temperatures (below 3,000', roughly). More mixing of precipitation types, and a 'dry slot' for some. I'll go one by one...
1. Asheville proper stands to see virtually no accumulating snow. It will snow there, and maybe hard at times, but it will melt on contact with only some slight slushy accumulations before they melt. That is bad news for Ashevillians wanting snow, and great for me sticking to I-26 and returning my bus.
2. There will be rain, sleet, and snow early on. Snow will hit some heavy rate periods, accumulating as heavy wet snow, especially above 3500'. Could spell power outages. Could see some light icing on top of said snow, too. Accumulating snow was forecast down into the valleys, but not much anymore...with ONE EXCEPTION: Haywood County alone has this doggone bullseye over it which has been there for days. For all this downgrading trends, this is why I'm holding higher (read previous post if you haven't already).
3. Draw a giant comma. Put a big "L" where the round part and the tail come together, that point. That's a typical low pressure shape for virtually every storm, though it can be a weirdly shaped comma. It is that space between the tail and the roundish body that is very dry air, and a precipitation killer. If you hear weather reports talk about "dry slotting" that's what they're talking about.
Extra Credit: I haven't talked about the gusty winds that should accompany this storm. Heavy wet snow with a possible icy coat could well mean trees coming down. Heads up.
Where are we? A Winter Storm Warning is now in place for elevations above 3500', and a Winter Weather Advisory for lower elevations. The interesting catch? Haywood County is purely a Warning and not an Advisory that I can find, at least in our area. Another reason I'm holding onto the snow/mix amounts for ACA and Waynesville. Not a normal thing to see weather-wise, but Haywood seems to be magical for this event. In an event like this, there is a magic freezing level where the snow kicks in, and it's heavy wet snow that accumulates quickly and is much harder to shovel due to the weight. I sense most of us, especially the upper ACA, will be in that transition zone.
Bob
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