So far it's a skunk, and I have no problem with that. From the double hairpins up, there are portions of white-covered road, but I have yet to slip anywhere. Although the advisory continues to 4pm, the moisture field incoming is not impressive. The biggest trouble I had were very icy stairs, deck, and car early this morning. When you get a vantage point, you can see more snow above 4K' toward the west/northwest.
Bob
I'm on the hoof for several more hours, so when I took a moment to read the Winter Weather Advisory itself, I was taken aback by the increased amounts of snow.
However, upon reading in more detail as it was written, those heavier amounts really are the closer you get to the Tennessee border. The going National Weather Service forecast for Waynesville area has zero accumulation, although I still see a dusting to possibly a half inch on the GFS and the Euro models. I'm still anticipating about an inch up at the end of Staymon, possibly 2 inches but only if the wind direction is perfectly from the northwest.
The wind will be blowing a lot of this around, and the warm roads should still melt a lot of the onset of this snow. It should be falling easily before sunrise in the morning...and temperatures will stay in the 30s for Monday.
If I see any significant update, I'll post it later tonight or very early tomorrow morning before sunrise.
Please excuse any typos and grammar faux-pas as it's trickier posting from my phone.
Bob
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| Winter dawn from the end of Staymon |
However, data has never suggested we'd have an issue here in Haywood County. From Buncombe County northeast to Virginia, there is a Winter Weather Advisory to that effect, but we should be just a cold rain here in ACA. We don't need ice, The Great Equalizer; it's nobody's friend.
BUT...Monday morning, starting around 3am if not earlier, rain should change over to snow. I see only 1" for the upper ACA, and hoping the road surfaces will stay warm enough to where any snow will accumulate on non-road surfaces only. Crossing fingers...it's a light event for sure, but a cold day that will stay in the low to mid 30s for many of us.
I will post any updates on that issue tomorrow as I am able.
Bob
When I got up at 3:30am, I realized that the Winter Storm Warning was well-timed. It dumped overnight as I've got 4.5" to 5" and 20 degrees here at the end of Staymon. I'll use this post to update with road conditions, plowing, info, etc., as I get it.
Bob
So much for promising a time and failing to get a post up! Apologies...
As is usually the case, we can split ACA into the upper and lower halves, delineated by the blue roof house at Dawen Circle.
Upper: A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from MIDNIGHT TONIGHT through 7am SATURDAY. What looked like very limited moisture must have more than forecast as the potential amounts have increased some. For upper ACA, 1.5"-3.5" seems plausible...anticipated winds could limit the high end, however.
Lower: A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for elevations below 3500'. Same time frame, but with lesser amounts, in the 0.75" to 1.75" range.
Winds: starting with this afternoon's storms I hear growling away to the west, wind gusts through this whole event could gust to 40mph. The potential for power outages goes without saying...a tree feel across the road just below the double hairpin curves before sunrise, and there was nothing going on weather-wise. Trees can easily come down, so just be prepared. Yesterday at 2pm, when all was quiet, a massive thundering crash came from a dead tree hitting another dead tree, somewhere just on the downhill side of Tannehill Lane. Third time's the charm...
Temperatures: Wind chills Friday and Friday night could easily get into the single digits. The saving grace is that we won't see below zero temperatures from this system; suffice it to say we're in for a couple of cold, wintry days before we round a bend.
I'm on the mountain all day and night Friday, so I'll update as needed and helpful. Here we go!...
Bob
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| FROM MY FILES: Barn Swallow by Lake J dam |
(Thursday AM quick note: I will post a full update around 1:00pm or shortly thereafter once I return home. Today's thunderstorm chances have increased...look for a bit of a windy squall-like line to hit this afternoon.)
We are certainly well underway for the latest first snow of the season that I can remember in ACA, but this incoming scenario is not a slam dunk by any means. Just wanted to share the end-of-week weather ahead.
Thursday will be windy and (relatively) mild as southwest winds whip out ahead of a strong cold front. It will bring some rain chances not only in the form of showers but also some isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.
There will still be some moisture to move through from the W/NW after the temperatures start rapidly falling Thursday night. Light snow may start around 3-4am, with daybreak lows in the upper 20s. Highs Friday will only be in the 30s, so especially for elevations above 3500' snow showers may well continue into Friday night. Any lingering moisture will wrap up well before sunrise Saturday, with lows dropping into the 17-22 degree range.
The NWS will post advisories and such Thursday...models indicate <1" for Waynesville and Lake Junaluska, with 0.5-2" possible above 3500' in ACA. The spine of the Smokies could get 4-6", with amounts tailing off fairly quickly as you move SE of the TN border.
As always, stay tuned...
Bob
