STORM IS FALLING APART...BUT....

More rain, more 'wintry mix', less snow...that's the going forecast for most of western NC, which limits accumulations.  The only problem is Haywood has had this bullseye which, although it's shrinking, still exists.  Barely, though.

The track isn't the real culprit, just the slowness of cold air to move in and work down to lower elevations.  Waynesville proper was 3"-4" on a National Weather Service graphic, and now it's down to <1", which I find odd since Haywood County is only in a Warning and that is not Warning criteria.  The NWS says to hang onto the bigger totals for now....there is that oh-so fine line  where rain turns to snow, and that wet snow piles up quickly.  Asheville has been dialed back to 'skunk' category...snow will fall there in time, but it melts either on contact or shortly thereafter.  Personally, I'm glad to hear that given my return trip. 

In light of the newer model runs and trends and yaddah-yaddah, I'll keep lower ACA in a 1-3" range and the upper ACA in a 3"-6" range, knowing it could go either way.  The uncertainty is high with all models, but I don't want us to get blindsided on the mountain.  Temps rebound, so if there are accumulations, even with nightly re-freeze, we should see a fairly timely disappearance of the snow.

Bob

SATURDAY 6:45AM UPDATE: CHANGES?...

[7:30am quick note:  My expected amounts for ACA from yesterday (3-5" lower, 5-10" upper, above blue roof home).  I don't mention it directly, but because of the bullseye I talk about below I'm letting it stand.]

I'm an early riser, so I headed down to breakfast at 6:15am....then had to do a face plant as weekend breakfast start times are later, in this case 7am.  SOOoooooo....a great time to go ahead and post this update (with coffee in hand, of course).

The following is a result of the track of the low...it appears it will come closer to western NC as opposed to staying down around Atlanta and Columbia as it heads to the coast.  What does that mean?  Warmer lower elevation temperatures (below 3,000', roughly). More mixing of precipitation types, and a 'dry slot' for some.  I'll go one by one...

1.  Asheville proper stands to see virtually no accumulating snow.  It will snow there, and maybe hard at times, but it will melt on contact with only some slight slushy accumulations before they melt.  That is bad news for Ashevillians wanting snow, and great for me sticking to I-26 and returning my bus.

2. There will be rain, sleet, and snow early on.  Snow will hit some heavy rate periods, accumulating as heavy wet snow, especially above 3500'.  Could spell power outages. Could see some light icing on top of said snow, too.  Accumulating snow was forecast down into the valleys, but not much anymore...with ONE EXCEPTION: Haywood County alone has this doggone bullseye over it which has been there for days. For all this downgrading trends, this is why I'm holding higher (read previous post if you haven't already).

3. Draw a giant comma.  Put a big "L" where the round part and the tail come together, that point.  That's a typical low pressure shape for virtually every storm, though it can be a weirdly shaped comma.  It is that space between the tail and the roundish body that is very dry air, and a precipitation killer.  If you hear weather reports talk about "dry slotting" that's what they're talking about.

Extra Credit:  I haven't talked about the gusty winds that should accompany this storm.  Heavy wet snow with a possible icy coat could well mean trees coming down.  Heads up.

Where are we?  A Winter Storm Warning is now in place for elevations above 3500', and a Winter Weather Advisory for lower elevations.  The interesting catch?  Haywood County is purely a Warning and not an Advisory that I can find, at least in our area.  Another reason I'm holding onto the snow/mix amounts for ACA and Waynesville.  Not a normal thing to see weather-wise, but Haywood seems to be magical for this event. In an event like this, there is a magic freezing level where the snow kicks in, and it's heavy wet snow that accumulates quickly and is much harder to shovel due to the weight.  I sense most of us, especially the upper ACA, will be in that transition zone.

Bob

FRIDAY 8PM UPDATE: CHANGES...

New year, first day dawn, 1-1-2023, from the end of Staymon

First and foremost:  the 'monster' totals in some models have scaled back to 'average' today.  Not that it won't happen, but that the potential has been downgraded a good bit.  Why?  Apparently the cold air will delay so that there is a longer period of rain-sleet-snow mix on warm ground, creating slush once the rate of precipitation outpaces the melting until the colder air gets in early Sunday morning.  That's for starters.

HOWEVER...however...for several days Haywood County specifically has been highlighted with the biggest snow totals of any place except for the northern NC Blue Ridge, so while many locations have scaled back today, I think we will still get a good dumping in ACA.  Down here at Clemson I still get WLOS, but while I have the luxury of focusing just on ACA, WLOS has to broad-brush stroke the regional forecast. Too bad, but I understand why.

WHAT:  We are under a Winter Storm Watch (click link) that will transition to a Warning at some point tomorrow.

HOW MUCH:  4"-10" of heavy wet snow with some sleet and maybe a thin ice layer.

TIMING:  Onset around darkfall and lasting through Sunday into Sunday night.  Surface temperatures will be everything.

TRAVEL:  At some point, it won't be safely possible on our mountain.  Apple Creek Road and side roads won't be plowed until the snow is pretty much done, so may not be done until Monday.  I'll relay what information I get when I get it.  I'll try to return to Asheville Sunday around 7pm with a 45' 53K-lb motorcoach, and at this time not convinced I'll be able to do that.  IF I make it, then I will try to get to Waynesville but at this time I hold no hope of being able to make it up to Staymon.  Just one of those things...

MY TAKE FOR ACA:  3-5" for lower ACA, and holding to the 5"-10" (up from my prior 8" high earlier) just because of Haywood being in a constant bullseye.

While Sunday will be a cold one, we'll have nightly re-freeze into the 20s each night with highs getting above freezing.  By the way, when your app tells you a high of "X" after a snow, if you have a solid snow pack, the albedo will lower that high by at least 6 degrees if not more, especially if you are in the shade.  Just sayin'...

I will have a small window to update if needed in the morning, but not again until this time Saturday night.  This might sound too obvious, but if you haven't already gotten a good supply of things, do it in the morning.  I would, just in case.  I really hate I won't be on the mountain for this one.

Bob

SNOW "EXPLAINER" AND THOUGHTS...

 While I have a bit of time, I wanted to share some background information for those that might find it interesting, pertaining to this particular snow system.

It's too early for any Winter Storm Watches or Warnings to be posted, but they will be soon enough.  Some of you may have see this 'explainer' of the difference between watches and warnings using tacos, so for your chuckle here it is...and it's quite accurate for tornados, but with Winter Weather it's more like "Tacos are immanent"!

Next is my artful rendition of what has been going on for most of this winter (red line low) versus what's coming in Saturday (yellow line low).  The red track brought in some cold air but limited moisture (outside of the one decent snow we've had to date)...but we will watch an upper level low kick south out of the Arklatex, kiss the Gulf of Mexico to pick up moisture, with the low intensifying as it reaches the SE Atlantic coast and turns NNE.  That will suck in the needed cold air and supply it with water.

Now for those "models".  There is the GFS, EURO, and the NAM that we mostly watch for winter events.  The EURO seems to handle snow better than the others, while the NAM usually under-performs with snow.  The GFS and EURO go out for longer time periods than the short-run NAM.  Add to that, different companies/scientists will use the model data and develop their own algorithms to enhance various factors, and they are all exceedingly complicated. 'Nuff said.

Here are the latest runs for the GFS and EURO on Sunday@ 10am, with the EURO being a bit heavier.  These numbers are on par with my earlier post...I neglected to mark ACA, but you can tell we're just to the top side of the "W-a" in Waynesville: (don't forget you can click to enlarge)

GFS 10am Sunday

EURO 10am Sunday

Now, the GFS has the snow machine tapering off to light snow/flurries through mid-day with little more accumulation, but the EURO cranks things up to the crippling 12"-15" range by 7pm:

EURO 7pm Sunday

At this time, the going forecast is that the low does not stagnate on the coast and begins its NNE move, precluding a Snowmageddon.  With that said, below is a model I have used for years and it is a GFS algorithm that has been going bonkers just like the new EURO.  Very reminiscent of what I saw on December 17, 2008, before we got slammed with 18". We're roughly the black dot.

E.B.W. GFS Thursday AM run

SOOooooo...The possibility of getting 'skunked' seems non-existent.  The bigger question is do we get just the moderate totals or the crippling ones?   I won't update again until Friday, and by the looks of my Friday schedule it won't be until later in the afternoon.  Stay tuned...

Bob

HEATING UP...SNOW FORECAST, THAT IT IS...

 

1-16-2023 Dawn from the end of Staymon

This is a quick post as I'm out of town with Texas A&M track at Clemson, back Sunday night.  This potentially sizeable storm has been growing steadily through the model runs.  What was once 1-2", both the GFS and EURO want to put 1-3" in lower ACA and 4-8" in upper ACA.  I have to leave that higher number in as one GFS algorithm I have always liked over the years has us 12-15".  Don't invest in that one, yet (I hope).

Snow should start Saturday evening/night, and go well into Sunday morning.  Expect snow falling with the air temp above 32 degrees, however.  Ultimately, after midnight, the temps drop when the snow is expected to be the heaviest, and it's all a matter of timing of those temps and precipitation.

All for now as I've got to scoot.  Will keep updating with new posts as pertinent information comes in.

Bob

SNOW THIS WEEKEND...?

Models are showing 1-2" of snow Saturday night into early Sunday morning, behind the next quick hit of cold temperatures.  I won't be on the mountain, but I'll be watching cameras and such and will update as needed.

Bob

ICY ROAD ALERT

 A very icy section of Apple Creek Road is just on the downhill side of the mirror curve.  There is a notorious  artesian spring that keeps surfacing and I just got a report of how slick it is.  Hopefully somebody may throw some salt to quicken the thawing process....it will warm up nicely today, but ice is slow to go.

Bob

S(NO)W TONIGHT...

From the files: Magnolia blossoms floating in a fountain (click to enlarge)

FRIDAY AM UPDATE:  Just like the ol' breakfast cereal:  "Nut'n' Honey"  All is clear...the cold air was too delayed to cause any frozen troubles.

While many to the west have had to deal with a deadly ice and snow storm and it's effects, we continue to have a "quiet" winter in terms of very limited snow thanks to a jet stream that simply doesn't dig well east of the Appalachians...at least yet.

We will get a decent shot of cold coming in tonight behind a cold front....highs Friday in the 30s, lows in the teens Saturday...but temps start to rebound some by the end of the weekend.

Before I talk frozen stuff, I don't see an issue for the bottom half of ACA....not that you won't see flakes flying, but you shouldn't see anything more than a dusting at best.

For upper ACA, even with a light accumulation, it looks like the rain will transition to some snow which is a recipe for icy road surfaces once the temperature drops.  It takes but a sheen of ice to lose control of a vehicle, so that will be my main concern.  Onset should be around the evening meal up to about midnight, and I'll be on the mountain and update if needed.

At the moment, the National Weather Service uses the official wording of 'little to no accumulation', and no bulletin messages for Haywood County.  Insofar as the models, the GFS shows nil, the EURO shows <0.5", and the not-oft correct NAM is showing 1"-3" above 4K' right by us.

Have a good Thursday and I'll update if or as needed as dusk approaches.

Bob