WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...???

I'm scratching my head over this one...NONE of my modeling shows anything above a dusting to MAYbe 1/2" of snow, and I've been watching these runs for two days.  Here's the 'official' advisory:

A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for Haywood County from 6am Monday through 6am Tuesday for elevations above 3500' (ACA's 'blue roof' house).  Snow to 4" and wind gusts up to 55mph.  The wind we'll get, and be prepared that some trees fall and cause some power outages, should the speeds manifest.

To be honest, I see those snow amounts only within a fairly narrow band of the higher elevations right on the TN border and the Blue Ridge Parkway.  Even the 'expected' NWS-GSP snowfall map for western NC has zero for Waynesville, and only starts accumulating a little within 15 miles of the TN border.  I'm just surprised, that's all...and a lot of people will be expecting inches of snow when it will be a skunk, mostly.  Any snow falling should be whipped around by wind and accumulations limited.

HOWEVER....some seriously cold air will be moving in. to the tune of lows in the teens Tuesday and Wednesday mornings...but temps do moderate by week's end.

Bob

6AM UPDATE

 My driveway is clear and dry as a bone.  While I see some shininess, it must be a very thin glaze that doesn't reach up to the level of the gritty driveway.  My boots never slipped, so I'm assuming most of us should be fine.  I won't be leaving until closer to 7am, and will update only if I see something worth mentioning.  I do have 0.5" snow/ice on my deck and stairs, FYI.

Bob

UPDATE: SNOW AND SLICK ROADS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY

While snow flurries/showers are falling as I update at 6:50pm, almost all models have pulled snow totals far back for our area (except the HRRR, which I've never mentioned before).  While the NWS mentions 1-3" possible above 3500' elevation, I don't see the amount I got last Wednesday.  The deck is white, and the snow is falling...but there is a difference from last Wednesday....

Temps will be a dropping down into the low to mid 20s. What may be an additional concern is black ice forming.  Any moisture on the roads will be icy.  So just a heads up and word to the wise for the early morning.  I'll be posting any update on conditions around 4-ish as I get ready to head down the mountain.

Bob

QUICK A.M. UPDATE

 Drove off from the end of Staymon Road, with 3" of heavy wet snow at home.  Apple Creek Road was snow/slush covered until Altima Lane down low.  Several tell-tale fishtails seen.  Went slow, no problem. Valley roads are fine.  No other info as I'm in my yellow tin can sitting way up 276.

FIRST SNOW, ALBEIT LIGHT...

Doe in Cataloochee Valley, giving me a stare-down.

'Tis the season, of course.  A quick hitting shot of cold air with a limited moisture field will arrive tonight and give us a very cold Wednesday before departing.  As I write, we are simply under a "Hazardous Weather Outlook" (HWO) as opposed to a Winter Weather Advisory (WWA), but I expect that advisory to be posted some time later today.

It's a northwest flow event, which we all know is not a great snow producer in most systems.  If that NW flow sets up truly from the NW down the I-40 corridor to us, that will put down the expected 1-2" for Apple Creek, at least the upper half.  Down in the valleys, like Waynesville, I'm expecting a dusting to maybe 1/2" tops.

My bus route runs rural backroads from the end of Jonathan Valley to near Fines Creek, so I'm expecting a bit more out that way.  The spine of the Great Smokies could see 3-5"...going back to our actual flow, if it is more WNW, the Smokies will block a lot of our accumulations in ACA.  

All this to say this is a baby event, but it's a first.  It takes very little accumulation on Apple Creek Road to make it a skating rink, and it may well not snow enough to warrant a snow plow.  I'll update accordingly much later today and early tomorrow morning.

'BOUT THAT TIME....

Apologies for the lack of posts from me, but there hasn't been anything monumental to pass along of late.  Alas, there are now several items that bear mentioning and 'food for thought' that serves us all here in Apple Creek Acres, so that'll make for a good fireside post.

By now, lot owners should have received our annual dues notice along with the minutes from the annual HOA meeting a few months ago.  You will notice the annual per lot assessment is now $300, up from $250.  We still can boast to having one of the most affordable HOA fees in the area, but as with everything else it seems, prices for goods and services continue to rise.  The oil component for asphalt is one good example, so our paving/upgrades take on bigger costs.  Insofar as winter weather concerns, I'll address that further into this post.  

I am now in ACA much more than normal as I stepped aside from driving tour buses out of Asheville and now work in the Haywood school system full time.  Two 'truths' come to mind:  1) nobody wants to be behind a bus, and 2) nobody wants to be on an HOA board.  While many HOAs have a bad reputation, we're in pretty doggone good shape here....except we're wearing out those that are currently serving because noone wants to come on board, so it would seem.  If that trend continues, we may have to consider moving to a third party to operate our HOA and there is nothing good to come of that, unless you are willing to fork out a significant annual assessment fee increase.  Just food for thought for now...but we really need residents to step up to the plate and help out if at all possible.  The time commitment is rather minimal, and you get one lot fee waived for serving.  Please mull the issue over...

This winter....if I could get a dollar for every time I get asked about "What's this winter going to be like?" I could comfortably retire.  Looking back over the winters since 2008, we have been in a bit of a snow 'lull' the past few years.  In terms of the Pacific Ocean currents that affect us here in the Southeast, La Nina has been in place the past 3+ years, but El Nino is now setting up shop, though we won't feel the full brunt of it this year, and not right away.  Climatology maps are showing moisture being prevalent in the Southeast throughout this winter, with temperatures trending downward from our above-average temps for November and December as we enter 2024.  Several models predict snowfall for western NC to be above average for the January-March period.  In the lot assessment letter is a smaller green sheet that goes over the Winter Weather Policy here in Apple Creek Acres.  Please read and take heed.

Personally, I'm agreeing with models anticipating more snow than usual here.  On December 18th, 2008, we got dumped with 18".  I've seen a few others in the 10-14" category, as well, but not the past few years.  This ol' body of mine is reaching a limit in my ability to manually push a 40" plow blade to clear my goony-golf driveway, so I invested in a great used UTV setup with a 6' plow blade.  It damn well better snow...LOL!  I've never been fond of long-term forecasts, but I watch incoming systems like a hawk and will be posting potential impacts here on this blog.

Until next time, saddle pals....

Bob