MR. TOAD'S WILD RIDE...AGAIN

 

"We want to talk to you about your extended car warranty..."

  Two wild burros from Custer State Park in South Dakota, years ago

Geez...talking about herding cats or nailing down Jello squares.  This is NOT a big deal for us, but will be for the I-95 corridor in the Northeast.  Still, snow causes issues on our roads, even in smaller amounts, and we're heading into the freezer for a couple of days.  I'm typing at 55 degrees, letting some fresh air into the house, yet highs Sunday should stay in the mid and upper 20s at best.  There might be some snow flakes in the pre-dawn hours Sunday, but they would be inconsequential.  To bring in these much colder temperatures there has to be wind, and a good bit of it.

Sooooo...the forecasting conundrum continues this winter. First, let me put out the basics for us at the moment.  ACA is under a Winter Weather Advisory that you can click on HERE to read in detail.  12a tonight through 12a Monday, 48 hours.  This turns into a typical NW flow event for us, under strikingly colder air.  The BIG deal is the demarcation between the EURO and GFS models, our preeminent winter go-to models.  I'll start with these graphics that compare what the EURO sees at 3pm Monday for us and what the GFS sees at 3pm (click any graphic to enlarge):

EURO 3pm MONDAY

GFS 3pm MONDAY

The Euro has us in a trace-1" category.  The GFS has us in a 'skunk' with 2-3" VERY close by, hinting at accumulations above 3500' for ACA.  With the GFS showing +10" in the Smokies and nothing for us is misleading...the Smokies won't ever get 10" and nothing here, so a modicum of logic is needed.  But the elephant in the forecast room is the HUGE difference in amounts between the EURO and the GFS.  Both have been steady in their own rights for the past couple of days, so nobody is swinging one way or the other.  Rock 'Em Sock 'Em robot models.

For the NWS to put out an advisory over a 48 hour period tells me they are siding with the GFS solution, and I'm leaning that way.  I originally said 0.5" down low and 1-1.5" up high in ACA, and I might tip the upper ACA to 2-3" and 0.5-1" down low in response to that.  Next up are the NWS graphics for 'expected' and 'high side' snowfall:

The only thing I think/care about with snow and forecasts is that a lot of us here on the mountain need to get to work, doctor's appointments, etc.  Yes, in the south we tend to make a big deal out of a little snow, but for ACA we have some steeper grades that demand respect with very little snow on the road.  I'd much rather drive on 2" of snow than 1/4" of snow, and with our forecast temperatures well below freezing for up to 48 hours that's significant.

I'll update with any changes I see sometime Sunday; if I don't post, then I have nothing to change or add.  My brother lives outside of Boston and they are expecting up to 2' of snow on top of what they already have on the ground, with the I-95 corridor becoming a nightmare Monday under a blizzard warning.  In that sense we have it pretty good.  :-)

Bob

ALL GOOD THINGS....

Today, we will enjoy hitting 70+, at least down low.  However, you just know a round-house punch is heading our way because it's still winter, and ye shall not be disappointed.

Cold air is back in Sunday, with light snow developing later in the day into Monday morning.  Monday's high is forecast to hold in the 20's, with winds whipping.  The damndest thing is, as I write, the NWS at GSP has light snow overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning, and nothing more....but my models have the snow developing late Sunday into early Monday.  I've not seen such a diametrically opposed timing, but both the GFS and EURO have the later timing in contrast to GSP's timing.

Insofar as snow amounts, maybe 1/2" down low, with 1" to maybe 1.5" above 3500', upper ACA.  NW flow event, just a shocker with a major temperature swing. The ground and roads will hopefully have enough stored heat to where the roads aren't a major problem Monday morning, but far too early to tell.

Just wanted to give you enquiring minds a heads up.  More later.

Bob

TEMPESTUOUS NIGHT AHEAD...

From a few days ago (click to enlarge)

Okay, "tempestuous" may be over the top, but it's such a good word to say.  Yes, another skiff of snow tonight, cold temps, nasty wind chills, and possible power outages should the winds crank up enough.  That last one...well, the last two 'storms' we had promised gusty winds, and they simply never materialized here in ACA.  But tonight's tempest should have some gusty winds at the least.

This snow is a NW flow event, but I see nothing more than a dusting, if that.  However, we just saw how a minor coating can make for slippery travel in the right conditions, so be aware.  Apple Creek Road has some deceivingly steep sections. Above 4500' there could be 1-2", but there just isn't anything on my map iterations that suggest anything but a trace to MAYbe 0.5" in upper ACA.

Haywood County only has a Cold Weather Advisory for below zero windchills early Saturday.  Just to the east and southeast is a High Wind Advisory, but not us.  There are Winter Weather Advisories east and northeast of us, but not us.  At least not at this time Friday morning.

Forget the freezing mark Saturday.  Uncomfortably cold all around the board, dripping water overnight, keeping flashlights and candles handy, jugs of water just in case.  The usual drill.  HOWEVER.....

Starting Sunday we begin to climb out of the deep freezer and back into the refrigerator, before continuing to climb to rather spring-like temperatures next week.  None too soon for me.

Bob