WINTER STORM WARNING Thursday

Well, something's coming....we had a lull in the precipitation today, and my total for Round 1 was 7.96".  Another 1.5" to 3" is possible later tonight and Thursday morning, before the fun and excitement begins.  ACA lost power at least twice today, and could again tomorrow, so fyi.

Looks like air cold enough aloft will be in noonish and start mixing in big wet snow flakes with the rain, and fairly quickly transition to all snow for the afternoon and into the evening....heavy, wet snow, that could pull down trees and power lines.  The components of sleet and freezing rain have pulled back best I can tell, but with all the water, the heavy wet snow (done by or before midnight), and a Friday morning low in the upper teens, dangerous driving conditions are quite likely.  With that said, for thinking ahead of the curve for plowing and salting, a Thursday night plowing and salting would be in order for those of you talking that over.

Amounts...ah, the NAM is bugging me this evening...the last two runs have gotten hot and heavy for ACA, with 10-12" in the afternoon run below.  The GFS is holding in the 4-5" category, but either way that stymies travel here.  Click on maps to enlarge...ACA is the black asterisk:

1PM RUN NAM

1PM RUN GFS

I'll update Thursday morning with any changes, thoughts, etc.

Bob

Winter weather returns Thursday

Eeegads, what a system.  As of 7am I've recorded 7.82" of rain...and still falling.

Because this storm system has really changed up it's timing and placement of the front, we're slated for a changeover to heavy wet snow Thursday, probably noonish.  It will mix in with rain first, then sleet and some freezing rain possible through the afternoon.  What now is a Winter Storm Watch will be changed to a Warning later today.

This is going to be a messy situation...heavy wet snow could bring down power lines, trees, etc, and the forecast low Friday morning is slated to be well down in the teens.  Precipitation should be tailing off before midnight, but icy conditions will be trouble.

Too, keep in mind with our ridiculous amounts of rain, the ground water tables have risen and we have any number of seeps that ooze out over Apple Creek Road...those areas could be especially dangerous.

At this time, ACA is falling in the 3-6" range in both models, with up to a foot along the TN border and over to the I-81 corridor. Heavier snow potential will be very close to ACA, represented by the black "*" (click on pics to enlarge).  There is also a nice 10-12" zone showing up from Troy, Albemarle up through Burlington, Durham and into VA...lots of places will be affected by this storm.

1AM WEDNESDAY RUN (NAM)

1AM WEDNESDAY RUN (GFS)

 Sunshine is supposed to be back by Friday and through the weekend...good for melting by day, and refreezing by night.

Bob

Glub, glub, glub....

Starting last night after I went to bed at 10pm, through 4:45pm this afternoon, I tallied 3.12" of rain here at the end of Staymon.  Lots of eroding rivulets on our gravel roads, and plenty of water running over the hardtop thanks to leaf-choked culverts and drainage ditches.

Be that as it may, still have more rain to go here in western NC. Plenty of places have it worse,  THANKFULLY we're not in snow territory as those of us on the mountain would be stuck for quite some time.  A wintry mix is falling in east TN, but that cold air simply won't be here in time to make a furthere mess of travel conditions.

Yes, colder air coming in, but it's STILL above average levels for us, chilly as it may be and feel.  We continue to fall on the Grace side of the fence.

On an aside, Helen Shamek alerted me to an editorial in the Asheville Citizen-Times last Sunday....it's about bears and anticipated spring activity, for starters.  At this time, I can't snoop out the link, but basically bear birth rates are up and harvesting numbers are down...hence more activity anticipated this spring.  If the link reappears, I'll post it for your edification.

Bob

"Heads Up" for slight icing....

I'm in Charlotte working as I type, and I've hesitated posting anything for ACA....if an event seems fairly minor, I won't post info, but with the official Winter Weather Advisory in place for ACA from 8pm through 10am Sunday, I reckon it won't hurt to reiterate what you may be hearing.

I suppose the biggest disadvantage is that I'm not there to watch my temps, nor are my eyes up at the top as they are out of town as well.  Overnight tonight there may be a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain....amounts are truly minor, but a glaze of ice is enough to make someone slide off the road should it set up shop.

Basically, this is a heads up for any travel in ACA overnight through the AM hours Sunday...if you are driving out, test your driveway, deck, check vegetation for icing, etc....and I do know there are you wonderful few souls who post 'comments' updating what you are having.  It helps us all to communicate, so thanks in advance for your help.

Sunday highs are supposed to be above freezing, ending the threat of slippery issues should they develop.

Bob

Weather 'Improvement'....

LAST DAWN OF 2012! (click to enlarge)

 I love old jazz music...and one of the greats that left this planet far too early was Billie Holiday who made famous such songs as, "What a difference a day makes, 24 little hours....".  In the same vein, we could alter the words to "What a difference a degree makes..." with incoming weather starting tonight.

Once again another inversion last night...it was 24 degrees at 10pm and 38 degrees by 8am at my place.  Where there was concern for accumulating sleet/snow/freezing rain overnight tonight, that is all kaput with lows holding 33 at the coldest, even in the high country.  Not that you might not see/hear some sleet mix in, but for what precipitation is slated for the next few days should all be liquid.

There is a small chance for a wintry mix Wednesday night, but it looks very minor at this time.

Unless things change drastically, this will be my last post this year.  ;-)  Cheers to a prosperous and safe 2013 for us all.

bob

SUNDAY AM update

I'll just start a new post for info pertaining to the roads this morning.  I have a good 1/2" of snow here at the end of Staymon, and all roads, surfaces are white...including around Junaluska.  When I swept a path on the deck, there was no ice underneath thanks to little to no liquid precipitation before the snow showers came; however, like last time, where you step or where the pups ran, those imprints would not sweep up.  I can only imagine the roads are a bit slick, for all the obvious reasons.

Dick Fields just wrote (750a) that just below the lower hairpin at his place "the snow was crunchy but not slippery. There were several sets of straight tire tracks on the road with no evidence of anyone losing traction."

If anyone has any road reports, or info on salting, etc., just comment here, or email me/call and I can add it in. My air temp is 17 and I'm not sure I'll hit 32 degrees today as I'm all shade.

Bob

And Another Winter Weather Advisory...

8pm update:
No biggee, just some light snow totally covering the driveway at 8pm, at 26 degrees.  Not a huge amount of showers left coming in from TN, but still enough to maybe make for slick conditions...just be careful.  Sorry for the low quality pics...too late and dark to do any better!  :-)  FYI, pics are from the end of Staymon Rd, ~3775'

good ol' light snow  8pm

Driveway solidly covered @ 8pm

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Last night's advisory for sleet/ice was dropped this morning...I had no lower than 34 degrees this morning, and the view below at 8:20am was 'right pretty' as we say in the South. 

This morning's view (click to enlarge)

 Our next advisory is already posted for 3pm this afternoon through 6am Sunday, per the possibility of snow showers that could accumulate.  They're calling 1-3" near the TN border and mainly above 3500 feet...for ACA, once again my maps have us in the 0-1" range.  Best chances look to roll in just after dark for a couple of hours, and with the possibility of no break between the changeover from rain to snow, there may be some icing on the roads.  The low is forecast to be in the low 20s, so plenty of cold air coming in rather quickly behind today's front.

There is another chance for wintry weather late New Year's Eve into the morning hours, though that system looks like all the others in its minor impact potential.  Just a heads up for anyone on the road late that night.

Bob