1:30pm UPDATE and PICS

3:40pm - heavy wet snow falling and stacking

I am one wet rat...decided to give the pups their jollies and take them for a ride and nab some pictures around Lake J.  As luck would have it, the heavens opened up the entire time I was out...but the pics do tell a story.

Rain update: storm total as of 1:30p was 9.14"

Temp down to 33 degrees (as I posted the video).

In the most recent runs both the NAM and GFS are set on 3-4" for us...still think something slightly more is possible.  Heavier snow now set more north and into the northern Piedmont.  Linn Damon reported from the board that any needed plowing, and certainly salting will take place just after midnight tonight.  Black Ice loometh, with anticipated lows in the teens.

You can read the genesis of this storm and model flip flops by checking out earlier posts.  I'm glad that the 'Snowmageddon' totals aren't going to pan out. Please...

Click on any picture to enlarge it...just took these an hour ago.  All over the region there is a tremendous amount of water flowing down and across roads, ACA notwithstanding.  These pics are just a sample of what we've been dealing with (869 Apple Creek Road, unoccupied cabin below Jan Woodlief).  Clogged ditches and culverts help to divert sheeting water down the blacktop:

There is a beautiful aspect....intermittent cascading waterfalls that are rather pretty:

Lake J is something to see...I snapped this first shot from my cell phone Wednesday morning, when the park below the dam was most flooded.  The second pic was from this morning:

Nothing like a lakeside bench to meditate from....

Loads of flotsam around the lake, here by the footbridge:

Non-floating docks are seriously inundated, as well:

I'll probably update well after supper just to 'check in'...thanks in advance for everyone's eyes and ears so we can travel as safely as possible on this beautiful mountain.

Bob

8am WEATHER UPDATE

***The National Weather Service, as of 1130am, is backing away from snow amounts in the mountains and upping them in the Piedmont.  For our area, they're going a broad 2-5", mainly above 3500', and less in the valleys.  The later the transition occurs, the less our amounts will be.  I'm leaving the discussion below because I'm never eager to switch ponies at the last minute.  If amounts are on the low side, we benefit in many ways. :-) The 7am NAM that was so heavy for us has come back to this reduced range.  GFS isn't ready yet.   

There is an earlier post from 5am, fyi, if you seek more info.  The latest runs are in and a curious little flop...the 'heavy' NAM that was pushing a foot of snow for ACA pulled back to a 4-8" range...and the conservative GFS which was 5-8" is now 8-12".  One model run does not a truth make, but the GFS overall has been more accurate this year.  Bottom line is we should be in a wintry mess as the afternoon wears on, so I for one will certainly get my errands run this morning and then settle in for the day.

(click on pics to enlarge; asterisk is ACA)

1AM RUN THURSDAY - GFS

1AM RUN THURSDAY - NAM

Accumulating snow will cease by or before midnight, and Friday morning lows should fall into the teens. Many of you know how troubling just 1/2" of snow can be on our roads, and it stands to reason the 5-8" for ACA is not overdone...heaven forbid it's heavier.

Power outages are anticipated...heavy wet snow is effective at bringing down trees and power lines

Sunshine returns Friday, so those that get direct sun will get some melting...temps at night will be at refreeze levels, but hopefully we'll have at least Apple Creek Road in decent enough shape Friday morning at some point.

bob

QUICK UPDATE...A GLANCE

Up early this morning...I'll put a complete update up here around 8am, maybe earlier, but I just wanted to take stock of what the 7p model runs showed, and will await the 1a runs which are usually finished by 7a.

It's 42 at 5am...and temps should slowly drop today.  A few changes are popping up...first is ONSET of wet snow mixing in. Yesterday it was between 12p and 2p, and this morning it pushes back to 3p or 4p.  All along models say precipitation is done by midnight, so it is expected to fall hot and heavy when the transition occurs.

Per the 7p runs: The 'heavy' NAM has increased ACA into the 10-14" range (please, no...) and even the more limited GFS now has us in the 5-8" range.  So far this season, with what minor events we've had, the GFS has handled things more accurately...when the two have not agreed.  We get our heaviest snows when we can sustain a NW flow out of TN, coming right down the I-40 corridor, as opposed to coming out of the west and getting broken up by the Smokies.  The NAM is banking on that situation, by the looks of the graphic.  We shall soon see...ugh.  

The later the transition occurs would be ideal, which would mean less time to build up...but this heavy wet snow coming in will be prone to drop trees and power lines.  The anticipated Friday morning low in the teens will be the literal icing on our wintry cake.

Stay tuned.

Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING Thursday

Well, something's coming....we had a lull in the precipitation today, and my total for Round 1 was 7.96".  Another 1.5" to 3" is possible later tonight and Thursday morning, before the fun and excitement begins.  ACA lost power at least twice today, and could again tomorrow, so fyi.

Looks like air cold enough aloft will be in noonish and start mixing in big wet snow flakes with the rain, and fairly quickly transition to all snow for the afternoon and into the evening....heavy, wet snow, that could pull down trees and power lines.  The components of sleet and freezing rain have pulled back best I can tell, but with all the water, the heavy wet snow (done by or before midnight), and a Friday morning low in the upper teens, dangerous driving conditions are quite likely.  With that said, for thinking ahead of the curve for plowing and salting, a Thursday night plowing and salting would be in order for those of you talking that over.

Amounts...ah, the NAM is bugging me this evening...the last two runs have gotten hot and heavy for ACA, with 10-12" in the afternoon run below.  The GFS is holding in the 4-5" category, but either way that stymies travel here.  Click on maps to enlarge...ACA is the black asterisk:

1PM RUN NAM

1PM RUN GFS

I'll update Thursday morning with any changes, thoughts, etc.

Bob

Winter weather returns Thursday

Eeegads, what a system.  As of 7am I've recorded 7.82" of rain...and still falling.

Because this storm system has really changed up it's timing and placement of the front, we're slated for a changeover to heavy wet snow Thursday, probably noonish.  It will mix in with rain first, then sleet and some freezing rain possible through the afternoon.  What now is a Winter Storm Watch will be changed to a Warning later today.

This is going to be a messy situation...heavy wet snow could bring down power lines, trees, etc, and the forecast low Friday morning is slated to be well down in the teens.  Precipitation should be tailing off before midnight, but icy conditions will be trouble.

Too, keep in mind with our ridiculous amounts of rain, the ground water tables have risen and we have any number of seeps that ooze out over Apple Creek Road...those areas could be especially dangerous.

At this time, ACA is falling in the 3-6" range in both models, with up to a foot along the TN border and over to the I-81 corridor. Heavier snow potential will be very close to ACA, represented by the black "*" (click on pics to enlarge).  There is also a nice 10-12" zone showing up from Troy, Albemarle up through Burlington, Durham and into VA...lots of places will be affected by this storm.

1AM WEDNESDAY RUN (NAM)

1AM WEDNESDAY RUN (GFS)

 Sunshine is supposed to be back by Friday and through the weekend...good for melting by day, and refreezing by night.

Bob

Glub, glub, glub....

Starting last night after I went to bed at 10pm, through 4:45pm this afternoon, I tallied 3.12" of rain here at the end of Staymon.  Lots of eroding rivulets on our gravel roads, and plenty of water running over the hardtop thanks to leaf-choked culverts and drainage ditches.

Be that as it may, still have more rain to go here in western NC. Plenty of places have it worse,  THANKFULLY we're not in snow territory as those of us on the mountain would be stuck for quite some time.  A wintry mix is falling in east TN, but that cold air simply won't be here in time to make a furthere mess of travel conditions.

Yes, colder air coming in, but it's STILL above average levels for us, chilly as it may be and feel.  We continue to fall on the Grace side of the fence.

On an aside, Helen Shamek alerted me to an editorial in the Asheville Citizen-Times last Sunday....it's about bears and anticipated spring activity, for starters.  At this time, I can't snoop out the link, but basically bear birth rates are up and harvesting numbers are down...hence more activity anticipated this spring.  If the link reappears, I'll post it for your edification.

Bob

"Heads Up" for slight icing....

I'm in Charlotte working as I type, and I've hesitated posting anything for ACA....if an event seems fairly minor, I won't post info, but with the official Winter Weather Advisory in place for ACA from 8pm through 10am Sunday, I reckon it won't hurt to reiterate what you may be hearing.

I suppose the biggest disadvantage is that I'm not there to watch my temps, nor are my eyes up at the top as they are out of town as well.  Overnight tonight there may be a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain....amounts are truly minor, but a glaze of ice is enough to make someone slide off the road should it set up shop.

Basically, this is a heads up for any travel in ACA overnight through the AM hours Sunday...if you are driving out, test your driveway, deck, check vegetation for icing, etc....and I do know there are you wonderful few souls who post 'comments' updating what you are having.  It helps us all to communicate, so thanks in advance for your help.

Sunday highs are supposed to be above freezing, ending the threat of slippery issues should they develop.

Bob