10:25a update: Thanks,Chris, for your comment below. I'm getting ready to pull out soon, and I'll try and phone Chris with my take on Apple Creek Road from Staymon to the bottom, and beyond if there are issues. I have a steep driveway, and because I am not fond thinking about being in a 5,000 pound bowling ball, I salted my icy driveway. If there is a minor piece of good news it's that the sleet that mixed in gives the ice on my deck, stairs, and driveway some limited sense of grip. While there is a 'lull' as I type, I see another good batch of moisture approaching I-81 in TN, which will be here soon enough. My temp rose to 26, but it has flatlined for a good while. FYI, click HERE for a great NC DOT website with an interactive traffic map...select a route, region, etc., zoom in and move around, and it updates with color coded road conditions that give you a good thumbnail sketch of what is out there if you have to travel. Be safe, all.
Updating the blog with current info can be as messy as today's weather, so figured it was easier to post a short and sweet new one. Already some disorganized bands of precipitation have passed through, and my deck is slick...not enough to make my steep driveway an issue, but it won't take much precip to change that as I'm 23 degrees (up from 19 at midnight). All advisories and warnings are in place til 11p tonight. Whatever falls will freeze, excepting where there is brine.
There is a lot of moisture in TN and it's heading due east...nothing moving up from the south.. 28 degrees even all the way down to Gainesville, and though Asheville is forecast to reach 33, many places won't get above freezing. Prepare for a day of frozen precipitation and poor road conditions. I'm assuming the 4-lanes are better prepped and in better condition, but side and backroads will be a big problem and some already are.
Please post any road conditions or info in the comments section here...I have to leave and am trying to figure the best time to do that once I get other things done, so won't be here after lunch (maybe even before) to provide my own observations.
Sun is back out for a calm, cold weekend before warmer temps move in early next week.
Carefull, all y'all....
Bob
Friday, January 25, 2013
Thursday, January 24, 2013
A "Mixed" Blessing...
You would think that ours and the adjoining National Weather Service offices would pretty much be at a consensus on significant storm events...let's just say that they presently "agree to disagree" on our Friday forecast. We've had a nice day, though I've been at 27 for hours after a sunrise at 32. Cold and very dry air has nosed in from the NE, and many forecasts keep getting drier and drier for us here in ACA. That's a good thing.
Instead of changing our watch to a warning, we're now in the lesser category of Winter Weather Advisory, which is another good sign. Not that we won't have freezing rain, or see a few limited periods of sleet and snow, but any ice accumulations here should be around 0.10"...with maybe up to an inch of snow on ridgetops closer to 4K feet. If it were to even be that much, which is dubious, we could live with that.
Onset looks to be near daybreak, with moisture moving up from the south...no doubt bigger travel concerns in our SW mountains and NE GA, but I have almost no doubt I'll get down the mountain and out Friday noon. Of course, our ground/roads are largely at freezing state, and it takes little ice to send a car spinning out of control...so normal caution in order as you head out tomorrow. Always a good idea to check your deck, steps, and vegation by your house to feel for icing, just to be aware.
Best precipitation chances move in late morning into the afternoon, but there really doesn't look to be that much rain (in whatever form) to begin with....SO, all that to say be careful, but I don't forsee big issues for ACA this time around.
After a cold weekend, we do warm nicely next week..."I'll take a dozen, please..."
Bob
Instead of changing our watch to a warning, we're now in the lesser category of Winter Weather Advisory, which is another good sign. Not that we won't have freezing rain, or see a few limited periods of sleet and snow, but any ice accumulations here should be around 0.10"...with maybe up to an inch of snow on ridgetops closer to 4K feet. If it were to even be that much, which is dubious, we could live with that.
Onset looks to be near daybreak, with moisture moving up from the south...no doubt bigger travel concerns in our SW mountains and NE GA, but I have almost no doubt I'll get down the mountain and out Friday noon. Of course, our ground/roads are largely at freezing state, and it takes little ice to send a car spinning out of control...so normal caution in order as you head out tomorrow. Always a good idea to check your deck, steps, and vegation by your house to feel for icing, just to be aware.
Best precipitation chances move in late morning into the afternoon, but there really doesn't look to be that much rain (in whatever form) to begin with....SO, all that to say be careful, but I don't forsee big issues for ACA this time around.
After a cold weekend, we do warm nicely next week..."I'll take a dozen, please..."
Bob
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Pesky Weather On The Way
Ugh. Give me a clean 4" snow anytime, and I'll get wherever I need to go. But this incoming system isn't about snow; rather, it's about freezing rain, mixed in with some sleet, maybe a tad of snow, and some rain. We're under a Winter Storm Watch which, as it gets closer to arrival, will be lifted to a warning. I have an extra vested interest as I was going to hit the highway around noon Friday, and that might be easier said than done.The main attraction comes in overnight Thursday through Friday, and it's slated to be a mess of a wintry mix.
One big factor working against us this time is how cold the ground still is. Though temps got above freezing for a while today, the ground won't be able to warm up appreciably before a shot of colder air comes before the precipitation Thursday night. My snow models have little to show right now, 0-1", because this is supposed to be a royal headache for freezing rain and sleet more than anything else. Should it accrete here, trees and power lines can readily come down. The forecast is presently ranging from 0.25" to 0.5" ice accretion for some areas in the watch area (Haywood County does happen to be on the edge of the watch zone, so hoping effects here might be a bit more limited).
I need to hit I-40 east Friday around noon...but I'll wait and make that call much closer to that time. Ice is the great equalizer, and I don't feel like putting my car in a body shop. I'll update here with another post Thursday...for now, just wanted to mention tomorrow morning's possibility for some wintry 'stuff' in ACA.
Bob
One big factor working against us this time is how cold the ground still is. Though temps got above freezing for a while today, the ground won't be able to warm up appreciably before a shot of colder air comes before the precipitation Thursday night. My snow models have little to show right now, 0-1", because this is supposed to be a royal headache for freezing rain and sleet more than anything else. Should it accrete here, trees and power lines can readily come down. The forecast is presently ranging from 0.25" to 0.5" ice accretion for some areas in the watch area (Haywood County does happen to be on the edge of the watch zone, so hoping effects here might be a bit more limited).
I need to hit I-40 east Friday around noon...but I'll wait and make that call much closer to that time. Ice is the great equalizer, and I don't feel like putting my car in a body shop. I'll update here with another post Thursday...for now, just wanted to mention tomorrow morning's possibility for some wintry 'stuff' in ACA.
Bob
Thursday, January 17, 2013
7:45pm UPDATE: Done Deal, So It Seems...
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| 745pm, about the end of the snow Looks like any additional accumulations are pretty minor, if not a done deal, as the radars are looking starved....my driveway is white, temperature is 30, and I got 2.75" of snow here at the end of Staymon. That's a marginal depth for plowing, as I understand it, but we know there is and will be icing, As far as I know Apple Creek Road will be salted after midnight, which will greatly help our morning traffic here. Thankful the big stuff moved on...but it was fun to see it move in so strongly. Now to see if I can stay awake for the Lance Armstrong interview... ;-)
bob
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1:30pm UPDATE and PICS
3:40pm - heavy wet snow falling and stacking
I am one wet rat...decided to give the pups their jollies and take them for a ride and nab some pictures around Lake J. As luck would have it, the heavens opened up the entire time I was out...but the pics do tell a story.
Rain update: storm total as of 1:30p was 9.14"
Temp down to 33 degrees (as I posted the video).
In the most recent runs both the NAM and GFS are set on 3-4" for us...still think something slightly more is possible. Heavier snow now set more north and into the northern Piedmont. Linn Damon reported from the board that any needed plowing, and certainly salting will take place just after midnight tonight. Black Ice loometh, with anticipated lows in the teens.
You can read the genesis of this storm and model flip flops by checking out earlier posts. I'm glad that the 'Snowmageddon' totals aren't going to pan out. Please...
Click on any picture to enlarge it...just took these an hour ago. All over the region there is a tremendous amount of water flowing down and across roads, ACA notwithstanding. These pics are just a sample of what we've been dealing with (869 Apple Creek Road, unoccupied cabin below Jan Woodlief). Clogged ditches and culverts help to divert sheeting water down the blacktop:
Lake J is something to see...I snapped this first shot from my cell phone Wednesday morning, when the park below the dam was most flooded. The second pic was from this morning:
Loads of flotsam around the lake, here by the footbridge:
Non-floating docks are seriously inundated, as well:
I'll probably update well after supper just to 'check in'...thanks in advance for everyone's eyes and ears so we can travel as safely as possible on this beautiful mountain.
Bob
8am WEATHER UPDATE
***The National Weather Service, as of 1130am, is backing away from snow amounts in the mountains and upping them in the Piedmont. For our area, they're going a broad 2-5", mainly above 3500', and less in the valleys. The later the transition occurs, the less our amounts will be. I'm leaving the discussion below because I'm never eager to switch ponies at the last minute. If amounts are on the low side, we benefit in many ways. :-) The 7am NAM that was so heavy for us has come back to this reduced range. GFS isn't ready yet.
There is an earlier post from 5am, fyi, if you seek more info. The latest runs are in and a curious little flop...the 'heavy' NAM that was pushing a foot of snow for ACA pulled back to a 4-8" range...and the conservative GFS which was 5-8" is now 8-12". One model run does not a truth make, but the GFS overall has been more accurate this year. Bottom line is we should be in a wintry mess as the afternoon wears on, so I for one will certainly get my errands run this morning and then settle in for the day.
Accumulating snow will cease by or before midnight, and Friday morning lows should fall into the teens. Many of you know how troubling just 1/2" of snow can be on our roads, and it stands to reason the 5-8" for ACA is not overdone...heaven forbid it's heavier.
Power outages are anticipated...heavy wet snow is effective at bringing down trees and power lines
Sunshine returns Friday, so those that get direct sun will get some melting...temps at night will be at refreeze levels, but hopefully we'll have at least Apple Creek Road in decent enough shape Friday morning at some point.
bob
There is an earlier post from 5am, fyi, if you seek more info. The latest runs are in and a curious little flop...the 'heavy' NAM that was pushing a foot of snow for ACA pulled back to a 4-8" range...and the conservative GFS which was 5-8" is now 8-12". One model run does not a truth make, but the GFS overall has been more accurate this year. Bottom line is we should be in a wintry mess as the afternoon wears on, so I for one will certainly get my errands run this morning and then settle in for the day.
(click on pics to enlarge; asterisk is ACA)
.JPG) |
| 1AM RUN THURSDAY - GFS |
.JPG) |
| 1AM RUN THURSDAY - NAM |
Power outages are anticipated...heavy wet snow is effective at bringing down trees and power lines
Sunshine returns Friday, so those that get direct sun will get some melting...temps at night will be at refreeze levels, but hopefully we'll have at least Apple Creek Road in decent enough shape Friday morning at some point.
bob
QUICK UPDATE...A GLANCE
Up early this morning...I'll put a complete update up here around 8am, maybe earlier, but I just wanted to take stock of what the 7p model runs showed, and will await the 1a runs which are usually finished by 7a.
It's 42 at 5am...and temps should slowly drop today. A few changes are popping up...first is ONSET of wet snow mixing in. Yesterday it was between 12p and 2p, and this morning it pushes back to 3p or 4p. All along models say precipitation is done by midnight, so it is expected to fall hot and heavy when the transition occurs.
Per the 7p runs: The 'heavy' NAM has increased ACA into the 10-14" range (please, no...) and even the more limited GFS now has us in the 5-8" range. So far this season, with what minor events we've had, the GFS has handled things more accurately...when the two have not agreed. We get our heaviest snows when we can sustain a NW flow out of TN, coming right down the I-40 corridor, as opposed to coming out of the west and getting broken up by the Smokies. The NAM is banking on that situation, by the looks of the graphic. We shall soon see...ugh.
The later the transition occurs would be ideal, which would mean less time to build up...but this heavy wet snow coming in will be prone to drop trees and power lines. The anticipated Friday morning low in the teens will be the literal icing on our wintry cake.
Stay tuned.
Bob
It's 42 at 5am...and temps should slowly drop today. A few changes are popping up...first is ONSET of wet snow mixing in. Yesterday it was between 12p and 2p, and this morning it pushes back to 3p or 4p. All along models say precipitation is done by midnight, so it is expected to fall hot and heavy when the transition occurs.
Per the 7p runs: The 'heavy' NAM has increased ACA into the 10-14" range (please, no...) and even the more limited GFS now has us in the 5-8" range. So far this season, with what minor events we've had, the GFS has handled things more accurately...when the two have not agreed. We get our heaviest snows when we can sustain a NW flow out of TN, coming right down the I-40 corridor, as opposed to coming out of the west and getting broken up by the Smokies. The NAM is banking on that situation, by the looks of the graphic. We shall soon see...ugh.
The later the transition occurs would be ideal, which would mean less time to build up...but this heavy wet snow coming in will be prone to drop trees and power lines. The anticipated Friday morning low in the teens will be the literal icing on our wintry cake.
Stay tuned.
Bob
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