Here we go again...my, but that wind is biting, and morning lows will at best be in the low teens for many of us, with single digits possible. Several have said they need to cut on their warming lights near their pump heads, etc....good night for it.
While some flakes might fall late tonight, the best chances for accumulating snow should arrive around midnight or shortly thereafter. Our advisory is for up to 2" of snow by morning, which stands to reason, though continuing winds could blow it around and lessen it.
My two models are showing the GFS at 1" and NAM at 1-3", so 1-2" seems reasonable. Though Apple Creek Road was salted this morning, snow can still accumulate on top, so just use good ol' common sense traveling early tomorrow.
Another sunny day Friday, like today...and then yet another limited chance for accumulating snow later in the day Saturday into Saturday night. Feel the excitement.
Bob
Thursday, January 31, 2013
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
WEATHER UPDATE
UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45 AM:
1" snow, but not AS nasty icy on the bottom as the last snow...23 degrees...got up at 330a and power was out again, I phoned it in, and when I woke up it was back on. Please put any road conditions or salting updates in the comments section, or email me and I'll put 'em in. Thanks!
Boisterous system is heading our way...just got an interoffice briefing from the GSP office, and they think our windfields could have gusts in the 40-60mph range from the pre-dawn hours Wednesday through the frontal passage later in the day. Trees and power lines could be like Jericho's walls and come tumblin' down.
There is also the threat of thunderstorms at severe limits, the main concern being straight-line winds of the damaging variety...as well as 2-3" of rain for the central mountains. It may be the higher side of those amounts falls on the other side of the Blue Ridge Parkway from us; regardless, mo' rain coming, and it will not be the easy, soaking garden variety. The top end of Staymon is a soft, muddy mess, but I guess if there is a silver lining, it's that sub-freezing overnight temps will soon be here, making it temporarily hard. :-/
Overnight Wednesday some snow showers are forecast to wrap in here, though models keep ACA in the 0-1" range. The Smokies and Plott Balsams stand to pick up 1-3", and the latter are very close to ACA.
In short, power outages and downed trees are the biggest concern from this vigorous cold front. Suffice it to say I'm letting the sawdust fly all day today. If I see significant changes, I'll update around or just after supper time this evening.
Bob
1" snow, but not AS nasty icy on the bottom as the last snow...23 degrees...got up at 330a and power was out again, I phoned it in, and when I woke up it was back on. Please put any road conditions or salting updates in the comments section, or email me and I'll put 'em in. Thanks!
Boisterous system is heading our way...just got an interoffice briefing from the GSP office, and they think our windfields could have gusts in the 40-60mph range from the pre-dawn hours Wednesday through the frontal passage later in the day. Trees and power lines could be like Jericho's walls and come tumblin' down.
There is also the threat of thunderstorms at severe limits, the main concern being straight-line winds of the damaging variety...as well as 2-3" of rain for the central mountains. It may be the higher side of those amounts falls on the other side of the Blue Ridge Parkway from us; regardless, mo' rain coming, and it will not be the easy, soaking garden variety. The top end of Staymon is a soft, muddy mess, but I guess if there is a silver lining, it's that sub-freezing overnight temps will soon be here, making it temporarily hard. :-/
Overnight Wednesday some snow showers are forecast to wrap in here, though models keep ACA in the 0-1" range. The Smokies and Plott Balsams stand to pick up 1-3", and the latter are very close to ACA.
In short, power outages and downed trees are the biggest concern from this vigorous cold front. Suffice it to say I'm letting the sawdust fly all day today. If I see significant changes, I'll update around or just after supper time this evening.
Bob
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
High Winds, Storms, and Cold....
UPDATE WEDNESDAY AM: 1am...1" snow, but not AS nasty icy on the bottom as the last snow...23 degrees...got up at 330a and power was out again, I phoned it in, and when I woke up it was back on. Please put any road conditions or salting updates in the comments section, or email me and I'll put 'em in. Thanks!
Boisterous system is heading our way...just got an interoffice briefing from the GSP office, and they think our windfields could have gusts in the 40-60mph range from the pre-dawn hours Wednesday through the frontal passage later in the day. Trees and power lines could be like Jericho's walls and come tumblin' down.
There is also the threat of thunderstorms at severe limits, the main concern being straight-line winds of the damaging variety...as well as 2-3" of rain for the central mountains. It may be the higher side of those amounts falls on the other side of the Blue Ridge Parkway from us; regardless, mo' rain coming, and it will not be the easy, soaking garden variety. The top end of Staymon is a soft, muddy mess, but I guess if there is a silver lining, it's that sub-freezing overnight temps will soon be here, making it temporarily hard. :-/
Overnight Wednesday some snow showers are forecast to wrap in here, though models keep ACA in the 0-1" range. The Smokies and Plott Balsams stand to pick up 1-3", and the latter are very close to ACA.
In short, power outages and downed trees are the biggest concern from this vigorous cold front. Suffice it to say I'm letting the sawdust fly all day today. If I see significant changes, I'll update around or just after supper time this evening.
Bob
Boisterous system is heading our way...just got an interoffice briefing from the GSP office, and they think our windfields could have gusts in the 40-60mph range from the pre-dawn hours Wednesday through the frontal passage later in the day. Trees and power lines could be like Jericho's walls and come tumblin' down.
There is also the threat of thunderstorms at severe limits, the main concern being straight-line winds of the damaging variety...as well as 2-3" of rain for the central mountains. It may be the higher side of those amounts falls on the other side of the Blue Ridge Parkway from us; regardless, mo' rain coming, and it will not be the easy, soaking garden variety. The top end of Staymon is a soft, muddy mess, but I guess if there is a silver lining, it's that sub-freezing overnight temps will soon be here, making it temporarily hard. :-/
Overnight Wednesday some snow showers are forecast to wrap in here, though models keep ACA in the 0-1" range. The Smokies and Plott Balsams stand to pick up 1-3", and the latter are very close to ACA.
In short, power outages and downed trees are the biggest concern from this vigorous cold front. Suffice it to say I'm letting the sawdust fly all day today. If I see significant changes, I'll update around or just after supper time this evening.
Bob
Friday, January 25, 2013
Friday AM Update
10:25a update: Thanks,Chris, for your comment below. I'm getting ready to pull out soon, and I'll try and phone Chris with my take on Apple Creek Road from Staymon to the bottom, and beyond if there are issues. I have a steep driveway, and because I am not fond thinking about being in a 5,000 pound bowling ball, I salted my icy driveway. If there is a minor piece of good news it's that the sleet that mixed in gives the ice on my deck, stairs, and driveway some limited sense of grip. While there is a 'lull' as I type, I see another good batch of moisture approaching I-81 in TN, which will be here soon enough. My temp rose to 26, but it has flatlined for a good while. FYI, click HERE for a great NC DOT website with an interactive traffic map...select a route, region, etc., zoom in and move around, and it updates with color coded road conditions that give you a good thumbnail sketch of what is out there if you have to travel. Be safe, all.
Updating the blog with current info can be as messy as today's weather, so figured it was easier to post a short and sweet new one. Already some disorganized bands of precipitation have passed through, and my deck is slick...not enough to make my steep driveway an issue, but it won't take much precip to change that as I'm 23 degrees (up from 19 at midnight). All advisories and warnings are in place til 11p tonight. Whatever falls will freeze, excepting where there is brine.
There is a lot of moisture in TN and it's heading due east...nothing moving up from the south.. 28 degrees even all the way down to Gainesville, and though Asheville is forecast to reach 33, many places won't get above freezing. Prepare for a day of frozen precipitation and poor road conditions. I'm assuming the 4-lanes are better prepped and in better condition, but side and backroads will be a big problem and some already are.
Please post any road conditions or info in the comments section here...I have to leave and am trying to figure the best time to do that once I get other things done, so won't be here after lunch (maybe even before) to provide my own observations.
Sun is back out for a calm, cold weekend before warmer temps move in early next week.
Carefull, all y'all....
Bob
Updating the blog with current info can be as messy as today's weather, so figured it was easier to post a short and sweet new one. Already some disorganized bands of precipitation have passed through, and my deck is slick...not enough to make my steep driveway an issue, but it won't take much precip to change that as I'm 23 degrees (up from 19 at midnight). All advisories and warnings are in place til 11p tonight. Whatever falls will freeze, excepting where there is brine.
There is a lot of moisture in TN and it's heading due east...nothing moving up from the south.. 28 degrees even all the way down to Gainesville, and though Asheville is forecast to reach 33, many places won't get above freezing. Prepare for a day of frozen precipitation and poor road conditions. I'm assuming the 4-lanes are better prepped and in better condition, but side and backroads will be a big problem and some already are.
Please post any road conditions or info in the comments section here...I have to leave and am trying to figure the best time to do that once I get other things done, so won't be here after lunch (maybe even before) to provide my own observations.
Sun is back out for a calm, cold weekend before warmer temps move in early next week.
Carefull, all y'all....
Bob
Thursday, January 24, 2013
A "Mixed" Blessing...
You would think that ours and the adjoining National Weather Service offices would pretty much be at a consensus on significant storm events...let's just say that they presently "agree to disagree" on our Friday forecast. We've had a nice day, though I've been at 27 for hours after a sunrise at 32. Cold and very dry air has nosed in from the NE, and many forecasts keep getting drier and drier for us here in ACA. That's a good thing.
Instead of changing our watch to a warning, we're now in the lesser category of Winter Weather Advisory, which is another good sign. Not that we won't have freezing rain, or see a few limited periods of sleet and snow, but any ice accumulations here should be around 0.10"...with maybe up to an inch of snow on ridgetops closer to 4K feet. If it were to even be that much, which is dubious, we could live with that.
Onset looks to be near daybreak, with moisture moving up from the south...no doubt bigger travel concerns in our SW mountains and NE GA, but I have almost no doubt I'll get down the mountain and out Friday noon. Of course, our ground/roads are largely at freezing state, and it takes little ice to send a car spinning out of control...so normal caution in order as you head out tomorrow. Always a good idea to check your deck, steps, and vegation by your house to feel for icing, just to be aware.
Best precipitation chances move in late morning into the afternoon, but there really doesn't look to be that much rain (in whatever form) to begin with....SO, all that to say be careful, but I don't forsee big issues for ACA this time around.
After a cold weekend, we do warm nicely next week..."I'll take a dozen, please..."
Bob
Instead of changing our watch to a warning, we're now in the lesser category of Winter Weather Advisory, which is another good sign. Not that we won't have freezing rain, or see a few limited periods of sleet and snow, but any ice accumulations here should be around 0.10"...with maybe up to an inch of snow on ridgetops closer to 4K feet. If it were to even be that much, which is dubious, we could live with that.
Onset looks to be near daybreak, with moisture moving up from the south...no doubt bigger travel concerns in our SW mountains and NE GA, but I have almost no doubt I'll get down the mountain and out Friday noon. Of course, our ground/roads are largely at freezing state, and it takes little ice to send a car spinning out of control...so normal caution in order as you head out tomorrow. Always a good idea to check your deck, steps, and vegation by your house to feel for icing, just to be aware.
Best precipitation chances move in late morning into the afternoon, but there really doesn't look to be that much rain (in whatever form) to begin with....SO, all that to say be careful, but I don't forsee big issues for ACA this time around.
After a cold weekend, we do warm nicely next week..."I'll take a dozen, please..."
Bob
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Pesky Weather On The Way
Ugh. Give me a clean 4" snow anytime, and I'll get wherever I need to go. But this incoming system isn't about snow; rather, it's about freezing rain, mixed in with some sleet, maybe a tad of snow, and some rain. We're under a Winter Storm Watch which, as it gets closer to arrival, will be lifted to a warning. I have an extra vested interest as I was going to hit the highway around noon Friday, and that might be easier said than done.The main attraction comes in overnight Thursday through Friday, and it's slated to be a mess of a wintry mix.
One big factor working against us this time is how cold the ground still is. Though temps got above freezing for a while today, the ground won't be able to warm up appreciably before a shot of colder air comes before the precipitation Thursday night. My snow models have little to show right now, 0-1", because this is supposed to be a royal headache for freezing rain and sleet more than anything else. Should it accrete here, trees and power lines can readily come down. The forecast is presently ranging from 0.25" to 0.5" ice accretion for some areas in the watch area (Haywood County does happen to be on the edge of the watch zone, so hoping effects here might be a bit more limited).
I need to hit I-40 east Friday around noon...but I'll wait and make that call much closer to that time. Ice is the great equalizer, and I don't feel like putting my car in a body shop. I'll update here with another post Thursday...for now, just wanted to mention tomorrow morning's possibility for some wintry 'stuff' in ACA.
Bob
One big factor working against us this time is how cold the ground still is. Though temps got above freezing for a while today, the ground won't be able to warm up appreciably before a shot of colder air comes before the precipitation Thursday night. My snow models have little to show right now, 0-1", because this is supposed to be a royal headache for freezing rain and sleet more than anything else. Should it accrete here, trees and power lines can readily come down. The forecast is presently ranging from 0.25" to 0.5" ice accretion for some areas in the watch area (Haywood County does happen to be on the edge of the watch zone, so hoping effects here might be a bit more limited).
I need to hit I-40 east Friday around noon...but I'll wait and make that call much closer to that time. Ice is the great equalizer, and I don't feel like putting my car in a body shop. I'll update here with another post Thursday...for now, just wanted to mention tomorrow morning's possibility for some wintry 'stuff' in ACA.
Bob
Thursday, January 17, 2013
7:45pm UPDATE: Done Deal, So It Seems...
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| 745pm, about the end of the snow Looks like any additional accumulations are pretty minor, if not a done deal, as the radars are looking starved....my driveway is white, temperature is 30, and I got 2.75" of snow here at the end of Staymon. That's a marginal depth for plowing, as I understand it, but we know there is and will be icing, As far as I know Apple Creek Road will be salted after midnight, which will greatly help our morning traffic here. Thankful the big stuff moved on...but it was fun to see it move in so strongly. Now to see if I can stay awake for the Lance Armstrong interview... ;-)
bob
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