'DUCKY' TODAY, 'FOWL' THIS WEEKEND

Today will be a nice day in comparison to our chill of late. Last week I ventured to Lake Junaluska, but my 'models' were a bit far out and not as sharp as I'd like.  Anyway, the top 3 are Ring-necked drakes, but the bottom one....it came flying in from my left all alone....as best as I can tell it's a juvenile female Pied-bill Grebe.  Supposedly they are around here in the winter, but I've never seen one that I remember. My day's victory.  :-)

I did just read that Lake J will soon be drained for a third year in a row for silt removal in the uppper basin.  While a necessary evil, I can tell you from my experience that the numbers of migratory flyway ducks there have plummetted as a result.  The flocks of Canvasbacks, Redheads, Scaups, and throngs of Coots haven't been back...just the limited group of Ring-necks and a few pairs of Buffleheads, as well as our year-rounders.  Now to the weather...

We could get a light coating of snow Thursday night into Friday morning, with a cold front dropping our temps behind it.  I don't anticipate any issues on our roads, given the relative warmth.  I'll be driving up around 130-2am Friday morning, so if I see any issues I'll make a quick post when I get home.

While we dodged the proverbial bullet on the first two 'snows' (not sure I can call the second event much of one!), late Saturday through Sunday we could well be in for a barn-burner.  Unlike our 'NW flow' events, a classic Colorado-to-Gulf of Mexico low is poised to swing up through Georgia.  That immediately means more moisture...and with a Great Lakes high in place, the necessary cold air will be in place, certainly overnight Saturday through most of Sunday.  Saturday may start off as a wintry mix for a while, all of this subject to changes this early.  Just a heads up for now.

Initial maps are coming in VERY heavy, so I'll watch the trend.  Here is the latest from the Tuesday PM GFS model run (ACA being the black dot).  'Yikes!', if it comes to fruition...1.5' of snow would keep us up on the mountain for a while.  It was an 18" snow many years back that had me start this blog as the same amounts were popping up, and it came to pass one week before Christmas.  I'll update Friday afternoon with the latest details, amounts, and timing.

Bob

GOOD AND COLD

(cell phone shot)

Thanks to sublimation, what minimal snow and ice formed yesterday, a great deal sublimated in last night's relatively frigid, dry air.  With those 'right' conditions, the solid water skips the liquid phase and goes straight to gas/vapor.  Poof, gone...my driveway was clear and what I drove on Apple Creek was similar. I'm good with that!

Now, if only today's internet repair is successful...

bob

WINTER STORM WARNING

330p update:   I was in town until just recently and watched it drop about 10ﾟ in an hour or so. It's it's 32 here at the end of Staymon Road, which is already white again. A vehicle tried to get up but didn't quite make it, whether it was a car or a truck.   Apple Creek road is already getting slushy, certainly on the upper part of Apple Creek Road. We've got a long way to go with this system so use extreme caution If you are going to be out and about. I will update the best I can, but I am still without Internet at this time.

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Heck of a time to not have an Internet connection.  I'm posting the obvious Winter Storm Warning that's in effect from noon today until 7:00 in the morning tomorrow for elevations above 3500' (blue roof house).  For lower elevations it will be a Winter Weather Advisory for the same time frame…. just less accumulations. Amounts will be probably close to what we just had if not a little bit more certainly for the upper portion of Apple Creek acres. The difference is that tomorrow morning temperatures should be down into the teens so much colder. Also, there may be a little bit of sleet or ice mixing in the front side of this system as it moves into our area. I'll try to update as I can and hopefully I will be able to get the internet connection fixed.

MONDAY A.M. UPDATE

 Outside of a few minor NW snow bands, we are done with this event.  Two things greatly helped us keep totals on the lower end (I have ~3" at the end of Staymon).  The biggest factor was the slooooow changeover from rain to snow.  At 3:30am it was still 35 degrees and raining; had the changeover occured at 1am or so as forecast, we'd be in a lot more snow.  A lesser factor were the very strong pre-dawn winds that blew some of the accumulation away.

When I get word on any salting, etc., I'll post it on this page, so check back later and refresh if needed.

In the meantime, here is the preliminary snow totals from around western NC.  Click HERE to see it.

Bob

WINTER STORM UPDATE: 7:30pm SUNDAY

 The latest run of the GFS has, well, gone absolutely bonkers, upping amounts even more (8"-12"! ACA is the red dot).  Not that a model or model run means anything by itself, but the trend for 36 hours has been more, and more, and more.  THAT is worth paying attention to.  Just where the additional moisture would come from to make an 8-12" snow around ACA I'm not necessarily seeing, but we are in line for 5-8" it would seem for upper ACA (less for the lower section).  If you haven't seen my prior post on this storm, check it out as I'm not going to repeat all the information again.  And if you didn't see the post prior to that one, including trail cam footage of a coyote and a bear at my house, check that out as well.  You can read the official NWS Warning details HERE.

Latest Sunday model run GFS

And so we wait.  This is NOT "Snowmageddon" by any stretch, but it is the first big shot of wintry weather for us.  It could be a lot heavier and could be a lot worse...but it will demand respect, all the same.  I'm here on the mountain for this event, so I'll keep you updated as necessary...personally, I LOVE a first snow event, like a kid in a candy store, so I'll be sleeping lightly.  LOL!

Bob

WINTER STORM WARNING - PREP TIME

 Well, here we go with our first solid shot of snow, coming on the heels of our abnormal warmth recently.  The National Weather Service has Apple Creek Acres under a Winter Storm Warning (click on link to see official wording):

WHEN:  10pm Sunday night until 12 noon Monday.

WHAT:  Rain changing over to snow, heavy at times, with strong winds. Changeover appears to be around mid-nightish.  If it's earlier than that, we could be in for the high end amounts.

AMOUNT:  3"-8, highest along TN border and above 4,000 feet.

Luckily, we have today to go get anything you think you might need, the ol' "just in case" scenario.  Snow will taper off early Monday, but the winds and cold temperatures will make for windchills in the teens and possibly single digits.  The sun reappears Monday afternoon, but temps will drop close to 20 degrees by Tuesday morning.  It will stay pretty chilly for several days...with....dare I say....another chance for snow?

Another clipper system will pass through Thursday and by Thursday night there is a chance for a changeover to snow.  At this moment, it doesn't look like much, so I'll address that later this week.

When I first started this blog, after we got hammered by 18" after a forecast of 4"-8", my go-to algorithm maps are the ones I'm posting below, to give you an idea of the model progression and trying to read between the lines, so to speak.  You'll read me talking about 3 main models:  GFS (usually on the mark), NAM (good close to the event), and the EURO (usually best in winter).  For this event, the EURO only recently increased like the bullish GFS, but all pointing to accumulating snow, regardless.  In the following images, ACA is represented by a red dot...click on any image to enlarge.

Saturday AM run GFS

When I wrote yesterday's blog, only the GFS was hot and heavy, and one model does not a storm make.  Hence my hedging on amounts.  But not anymore...

Saturday PM run GFS

12 hours later, the GFS was sticking to its guns and even increasing the amounts.  That makes my ears perk up, the consistency.  Other models were still lagging.

Sunday AM run GFS

12 hours later, the GFS spread the heavy snow up into SW VA, and now showed what is a typical banding of a strong NW flow event.  The TN border and highest elevations will pick up significant snow, with decreasing amounts rather quickly dropping off the farther SW you go.  The banding is very tight around ACA, so amounts can swing a lot depending on wind direction.  Speaking of which...

The three colored lines may not seem like they are that different in orientation, but they are when it comes to snow totals.  A and C represent situations where ACA snow is more limited, being blocked by the higher terrain en route, which orographically takes a lot of snow out of our picture.  But if we get that perfect flow orientation basically down the I-40 corridor from TN, we get higher amounts.  Right now the forecast orientation is more in line with B.

As of last night's run, the EURO has caught up...well, it is now running even hotter:

Sunday PM run EURO

While I will certainly be staying on top of this system and update as necessary, don't forget to join the ACA Facebook page for user-input information: Click HERE.

Bob

A NEW YEAR, 'NEW' WEATHER, A COYOTE, AND A BEAR

I hope everyone has enjoyed the holidays as we now enter 2022.  It's hard to believe that we had a nice snowfall Christmas a year ago....and here most of us are out and about in shorts.  Not for long...

We will finally be subject to temperatures and weather conditions befitting this time of year, all starting Sunday night.  An approaching cold front will not only bring us increasing rain chances (and maybe a few thunderstorms) as Sunday progresses before the cold air catches up and transitions the rain to a wintry mix and then over to snow Sunday night into Monday morning. More in a moment...

The winds have been howling since before daybreak Saturday, and will stay frisky.  Hopefully the somewhat recently cleared power line rights of way will help us avoid power outages from falling trees/limbs.  Temperatures will stay unseasonably mild until the cold arrives Sunday night, so prepare for a few days of much colder temperatures.

As with just about every snow event we have, especially a northwest flow event like we have tomorrow night, there will be a split of sorts between what I call "upper" Apple Creek versus "lower" Apple Creek, with the dividing line around 3,500 feet elevation, which for all practical purposes is the 'blue roof' house on Apple Creek Road.

For some on the mountain, this may be your first Apple Creek winter event.  Road conditions are watched very closely and can be extremely treacherous very quickly.  You've seen the plastic HOA tubs up and down Apple Creek Road...those are salt containers that are there for use after the road has been plowed and salted to help treat stubborn icy areas.  Even something as little as 1/4-1/2" of snow can turn to ice under the weight of a vehicle and cause loss of control very quickly.  Many portions of the road are deceptively steep, and once you lose traction you have to hold on tight for whatever is ahead.  All that to say use extreme caution if you have to travel when roads are snow covered.  2-wheel drive (even front wheel drive) vehicles rarely can negotiate Apple Creek road up or down in most winter events.

SOOoooo.....tomorrow night.  Most models hold off a transition until midnight or shortly thereafter.  The odd-model out is the oft used GFS which has it transitioning around 10pm.  There will most likely be a period of a couple of hours of good snowfall before going over to light snow and flurries before tailing off Monday morning.  When you wake up, temps will be in the 20s and stay in the 30s for the high Monday.  Winds will be more gentle, thankfully.

If the transition occurs ahead of schedule, we could be in for a nice snow event.  Models dealing with mostly snow have us in the 4"-6" range, but I don't see that happening.  At the moment, I'm going 1" to 2" for upper ACA and 1/2"-1" for our lower section, given the delayed transition to snow with somewhat limited moisture in place.

For now, I just wanted to crawl out of my cave and get this post up.  More than likely I'll update Sunday afternoon with any changes I see.  As far as my mention of a coyote, I put up a trail camera recently just 20 feet off of my deck which opens up to extensive woods.  Around 12:15am 12-27-21, an apparently well-fed coyote passed by.  They're here, they've been here, and they'll always be around here.  Make no mistake: they will have their way with any animal they can find, so take heed.

With the mild weather this fall, my regular ol' bear made an appearance November 18th, sporting an enlarged waistline.  I hope he's much sleepier by now.  :-)

Stay tuned, y'all!

Bob