WEATHER NOTES; FRIDAY PM UPDATE0

Green Heron at Lake Junaluska (click to enlarge)

UPDATE FRIDAY 6PM:  From work I watched the snow fly on my Blink cameras, and in driving home it was apparent that up to 1/2 inch of snow had piled on the road in ACA, starting below the blue roof house.  I made it just fine, in 4wd with brand new tires great for snow.  2wd cars won't make it, at least not without some scary sliding.  Whatever sticks stays tomorrow, with bitterly cold moving in.  Sunday, as the day wears on, warmer air turns anything wintry into liquid, and we're out of the woods.  For now, no winter weather advisory for us, but the roads are what they are: slippery. Can't rule out isolated snow showers overnight.  The rest of this is the earlier post. 
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  Lots of bitter cold and minimal frozen precipitation, that's what we have coming our way.  Strong NW winds will increase later today and overnight, prompting a wind advisory for ACA.  Snow flakes could well fly, but if we get a dusting that would be tops, and the winds should preclude most of that. 

Do be prepared for a potential power outage as the NW winds will more directly affect us, given ACA's NNE orientation.  We know the name of that tune in windy  conditions with our supply of dead Ash and Locust trees.  Those winds will be blowing in a very cold, albeit sunny, Saturday.

Sunday will be a wet one, that may start early with a light wintry mix, but warmer air moves in aloft and we'll go to all rain as Sunday progresses into Monday. Temps will simply be too warm for sustained frozen precipitation in ACA.

Bob
 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Bull Elk #16, Cataloochee Valley herd

Yet another case of a big bark but only a little bite.  Yes, Haywood County is under a Winter Weather Advisory for elevations above 3,500 feet (upper ACA), for up to 4 inches of snow near the TN border.  The advisory runs from 1pm today through 1pm Saturday, BUT....

For Apple Creek Acres, I don't even see 1/2", if that, from this baby NW flow event.  All the models I reference show a rapid fall-off in accumulations as you move away from the TN border, and the most recent runs have reduced a bit more.

But it is the Christmas holiday in full swing, so even seeing flurries is kind of heart-warming.  And, should there be light accumulations on the road, know they could easily be slippery as even a light coating can send a car sliding if one isn't careful.

Bob

A BIT OF SNOW AGAIN...

 Temperatures will crash rather rapidly today as we head to near 20 degrees tonight.  Any leftover moisture will turn into snow showers later this morning through early afternoon, and at elevations above 3500' (upper ACA) snow showers will continue intermittently throughout the evening hours.

The first one of these I ended up with 1".  Last time I got 2".  Looks like the same sort of ballpark for this minor but bone-chilling event.

The ground certainly warmed up yesterday, which should preclude icy conditions on our roads, but slushy snow is the next best thing to ice, so use caution, as always.

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From my files:

This is Chris.  Chris is a cow moose.  When she's having a good day, she's rather merry.  Yes, if she could talk, she would say "Merry Chris Moose!"

(click to enlarge...and groan)

Bob

QUICK, LATE SNOW FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT

Had a long day and then an evening commitment, and didn't get home until 9pm.  The National Weather Service never put us in an advisory for tonight, just a special weather statement about snowfall potential overnight.

I must say, the moisture field in east TN is fairly impressive, and the temps are well below freezing already...but the relative humidity is still around 75% right now, so anything falling is evaporating.  Over the next few hours, that relative humidity will climb and snow will reach the ground, but accumulations should be on the light side, equal or slightly less than our last little episode. 

Heading to bed shortly, just wanted to post something as I truly thought they may put out an advisory for elevations above 3500', but that was not to be.  Regardless, it'll be one cold, cold day Tuesday...with maybe a little white frosting to start.  :-)

Oh, and happy December!

Bob

COLD AND SNOW....AND FEMA

 

11/19/24 dawn burst of color, from the end of Staymon

I simply wanted to begin with FEMA...please read the prior posts about my visit and the process.  We've had at least a couple of FEMA inspectors out to see the slump and impending travel disruption above the double hairpin curves.  A fair number of residents/lot owners have already been to see them (again, read posts...EZ-peasy to get to them and talk).  The more of us living above the curve go see FEMA, the better.

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Looks like we're in line for our first snow of the season.  Already a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is posted for Haywood County for elevations above 3500'.  The call in general is for 2-4" of snow from the last half of Thursday through Saturday morning, but I am not seeing that, not here for ACA this far from the TN border.  

I do see 0.5"-1.0" of snow for the upper half of ACA (above the blue roof house across from Dawen Circle), and much lighter below that, all by Friday morning.  I simply don't see the higher amounts this far from the TN border.  This is a NW flow event, and we rarely get multiple inches of snow unless the flow is perfectly aligned along I-40 from the NW.

It will be quite cold.  It will be very windy.  Power outages are quite likely given the strong wind fields moving in, knocking down weakened trees.  I just don't see the water content needed for multiple inches here in ACA, that's all.

Early tomorrow morning, Thursday, if I see some significant changes, I'll post them before heading down the mountain at 7:30am.

Bob

MY VISIT TO FEMA

 On my lunch break Thursday I went by the FEMA station.  It's located at the HCC building as you turn into the Industrial Park, located just downhill from Shoney's and Junaluska Vet office.  Their hours are 8am-7pm daily, 7 days a week. Click HERE to go the site if you want to read more.

You go in to an initial table to give the basic information.  I told them we have an endangered road that if it gives way will trap those of us above 661 Apple Creek Road without a way out.

They'll send you to another table where someone enters your information and gives you a piece of paper with a number on it, and they will direct you to the chairs where you will wait to be called.  

The FEMA tables and agents are all along the walls, and when called, you'll go to that table and start a long list of questions, descriptions, etc.

The key is to tell them that this issue is at 661 Apple Creek Road.  If you had additional impacts on up where our mudslides were, you can add that information.

Apparently the rules have changed just in the past week.  At first, Apple Creek could only file for a SBA loan, but they have opened that up to residents being able to  file and the money go to the HOA (I hope I understood that correctly).  

This process is only the beginning, as you will be instructed to gather some forms, bills, statements and email/scan them to a FEMA address for further continuation of the application.  That's where I am at the moment.

They will mention that an inspector will need to visit the site and that a phone call will come from one at some time and that it may come across as an unknown number...but to answer all such calls to make sure it's an inspector.  [Personally, I'll find that difficult as I am fast approaching 65 and am already swamped with everybody and their brother, sister, cat, and dog trying to sell me plans.  Plus, I can't answer calls at work, so I'll try and keep my message box cleared].

The key to all of this is for EACH LOT/HOMEOWNER TO GO THE FEMA STATION AND FILE.  The more money we can funnel to the HOA lessens the potential assessment that might be made on all lot owners to help shoulder the clean-up bill from our damages in our HOA.

Bob

FEMA AND APPLE CREEK CONCERNS

 

Barred Owl by home on Staymon Road

The following is from Keith Patton, concerning the dangerous slump that is precariously close to the edge of the road on the upper hairpin curve.  If you've seen the orange cones there, give them a wide berth. 

The slump at the orange cones

 

"I have been in contact with Joyce Wells at 661 Apple Creek Road concerning the road bank washout on her property. We have both been to the FEMA headquarters to file claims in hopes of getting financial assistance from them to help fix this problem. They told her that the residents of ACA who live above 661 Apple Creek Road should come in and file individual claims since they would be affected if the road bank were to cave in stranding them. I don't know what our chances of getting help are but this certainly seems worth the effort."

With the mudslides damages and clean-up on upper Apple Creek and Tannehill Roads, Apple Creek lot owners may well be facing an assessment that has yet to be determined.  Our coffers are empty, and the idea is that, as suggested, those of us above the upper hairpin curve go apply at FEMA, which is located in the industrial park just downhill from Shoney's/Junaluska Vet.  The basis for filing is that if the road gives way, everyone above it would be stranded with no alternate route to get out.  Any payments can go back into the HOA to offset our losses.  It would be a start, anyway.  If the HOA as one entity were to file, it would require 100% of lot owners to support it, which is simply out of reach.

Too, it's unclear what is even possible to shore up that slump area and prevent further erosion and potential damage.  There will be more information forthcoming, I'm sure, and I'll pass it along accordingly.  When I get the opportunity to go by FEMA myself, I'll pass on my experience.

Bob