"WARM NOSE" EXPLAINER, UPDATE TWEAKS

We now await the arrival of our wintry forecast this afternoon. I don't have anything to add or change from my previous post...a 'warm nose' is what we'll be dealing with, which should be keeping us more in ice and minimal snow.  However, we should start out as snow before the precipitation type kicks over this evening.

  I always like to share/educate with information to maybe better understand what we are dealing within our particular area.  Below is the Sat AM national map showing all of the watches and warnings.  To say this winter storm is expansive is an understatement.  Notice the black circled area, a noticeable bump upward with a break in the ice storm warnings, not a straight line across.  That's the warm nose of air trying to push up from the Gulf of Mexico thanks to a smaller area of low pressure on the LA/MS coast. (Click on any pics to enlarge):

National warning/watch map Saturday AM

As a rule of thumb, the higher you go in altitude the colder the air should get, but often times the air will warm up just a few thousand feet above the surface.  All precipitation begins as snow, even in the summer, and then it melts.  If the air column stays below freezing, it's all snow.  This one missed us as it will fall farther north.  If the air column warms above freezing at some point, we're now back in rain.  The kicker for us is how close that freezing line is above our heads.  If it's high enough, say 10,000 feet, it will turn back into sleet/ice pellets on its way down.  If it's low, like 5,000 feet, it may not have enough time to refreeze and will hit the below-freezing surface as rain, freezing into a glaze of ice (the worst-case scenario).  

I'm afraid the latter is where we fill find ourselves tonight.  As I mentioned earlier, the High Country above 5,500 feet may find itself in the above-freezing temps and mostly rain, ultimately.  Warm air is lighter than cold air, so the warm air can't push out the cold at the surface, but aloft it can 'nose' in, creating our problematic forecast.

The massive engine driving out storm is a huge low back in the Desert Southwest, with an equally massive high pressure near the Great Lakes driving in some bitterly cold air. With the counterclockwise flow around the low, it will pull in a tremendous amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico...but at the same time, it's pulling in the warmer air, as well.  The map below is for this evening, and I drew in the white arrow to show the intrusion of warmer air into our set-up:

SATURDAY evening surface map

And that's the end of this missive.  Forecasting just where that freezing line aloft will be for us in Haywood County has been a real bugaboo for this ever-changing winter storm.  I still see us in rain and above freezing Sunday afternoon, and we'll take all of that we can get to dispel what ice/sleet we have, but Sunday night into Monday will be NW flow snow showers and deeply cold temperatures.  What sticks will stay for days.

Icy roads are a no-go.  Our decks and stairs will be the first to ice up, as well as the vegetation, so I'll be watching the ice on the deck railing.  Once ice gets thick and heavy enough, then power lines and trees can start to snap.  With power, often it's the transformers that blow, so don't be surprised to hear a kaboom or two.

As we all say, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.  Over and out.

Bob

WINTER STORM TIMING, CONCERNS

Honing in on this cantankerous storm that WILL be wreaking havoc in many areas...and what appears to be a saving grace for us here in ACA, depending on how we get through Saturday.

In a nutshell, I'm still siding with the EURO which has a warmer, less snowy/icy overall solution. The GFS still wants to put down inches of snow, but I just don't sense that will be the case.

First, model run comparisons, and for these I'm widening out the view to a more regional look (click on pics to enlarge):

I started at 10pm... precipitation will be falling by early afternoon, and probably as a wet snow.  But the above 10pm graphics tell the difference of a snowy GFS and an icy EURO.

The 9am Sunday run shows the GFS hanging onto snow with sleet mixing in; the EURO is still in freezing rain.  HOWEVER...note the green in SW NC of rain showing up, with surface temps above freezing.  Also note the green in what are the High Country locations above 5,500', tall enough to be in the warm sector and potentially above freezing.  The reason I'm going with the EURO is the warm nose continues to be very aggressive working from SW to NE.

3pm Sunday run shows us potentially in all rain, with the GFS refusing to give up the snowier/icier ghost.  Assuming we go to all rain, cross your fingers it removes as much ice as possible.  Sunday night the temperatures crash, and whatever is left over will stay for a few days as we go into a deep freeze.  Winds will pick up, and if there is ice on the trees/power lines, they can still come down.

So, is this a minor event for us?  Not at all, given accumulating sleet and freezing rain take over as the dominant precipitation.  Freezing rain is the worst of the worst, in terms of power outages, inability to travel, and downed trees.  For my prep, I'm not touching the UTV; instead, I've gathered and prepped my chain saw supplies, for the first time in a while.  Power outages appear to be very likely, so prepped for that.

Oh, and on the back side will be NW flow snowshowers, which might lead to some light accumulation overnight Sunday into Monday.  And insofar as accumulations, when you deal with wet snow, sleet, and freezing rain, that's almost immaterial.  I'll be closing watching my thermometers and will report on the Facebook page from my place on the mountain.  Freezing rain is the most dangerous.

Bob

WINTER STORM WATCH: AN ICIER MESS AHEAD

 In one way I was flummoxed at the rapid model changes the past 48 hours, far more rapid than 'normal'...but there isn't that much that is normal in weather anymore.  Gone is a snowmageddon, now an icier mess that we don't talk about accumulations so much as the potential for trees down, power outages, etc. Many won't be able to travel for a while; give me 4" of snow and I'm fine, but give me 1.5" of sleet and I'm not budging.

Click HERE for our current Winter Storm Watch.

There is still a big difference between the GFS and the EURO.  The GFS brings in snow at first in the 4-8" range Saturday, where the much slower EURO has maybe flurries or light accumulation of snow for us.  The EURO paints us in freezing rain and sleet for most of this event, which kills any talk of accumulating snow.  Accreting ice on power lines and weakened trees is the potential thorn in our side, and we're talking a tremendous amount of real estate under that cloak.

I'm hedging with the EURO at this point, which will push a warm nose in SW North Carolina Sunday to where temps may be above 32 degrees with some rain.  There is a snowy NW flow backside as the moisture departs, but at this moment I see little in the way of accumulation there.

Warm air is lighter than cold air, and we should have below freezing temps at the surface through Saturday.  With warm air aloft, depending on how far aloft it is, we get an icy solution.  For me, freezing rain is the worst, followed by sleet, then snow.

Many years ago I was on duty at News14 Carolina in Charlotte (now Spectrum News).  We were staffed 24/7 in weather, and I went on duty at midnight.  Around 2am, it was 27 degrees outside...and it was pouring flat-out rain.  I mean pouring, all freezing on every surface.  The ice storm took out power to some 1.6 million customers.  You could hear trees break and fall, transformers exploding all around....it was an icy hell that brought the region to a halt for days.

Our Watch will become a Warning as Saturday approaches, and I'll update with any changes.  We still have today and tomorrow to get our ducks in a row for whatever this whirling dervish of a winter storm decides to throw at us.

Bob

TIME TO GET SERIOUS: WEEKEND SNOWSTORM LOOMS

Been a while since I've posted something like this...reminiscent of December 18, 2008, after which I started this blog after we got hit with 18" of snow with a forecast of 6-8".  This is a long post with lots of graphics you can click on to enlarge.  Yes, this is early in the week and this is a good ways out, but this is no skunk.  This storm is a bowling  ball that will knock down a lot of pins, but it won't be a gutter ball.

Meteorologically, this is our classic set-up of a large area of low pressure kicking east out of the southwest and southern Rockies, and scooping up a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. We've been in a very cold pattern that will continue to hold on with a large dome of Arctic high pressure sitting over the western Great Lakes (part of the polar vortex that has gripped the northern tier states).  The temps will be here, the moisture will be here, and the recent numbers per potential accumulations are humbling, to say the least.

As with any storm, there will be a boundary/front that plays a critical role dividing snow from ice/sleet/freezing rain.  It's just north of that boundary where temps are closer to 32 degrees which means the air can hold more water than 26 degree air, and that's where you get a "snowmageddon", a crazy dumping.  South of that boundary is potentially crippling ice accumulation.  In this graphic, by far the 'tamest' of the models, you can easily trace that whitish boundary....however, this model is odd man out as all other runs have that boundary much farther south.  Just gives you an idea of what I'm talking about:

SAT NOON TEMP BOUNDARY GFS

SAT NOON TEMP BOUNDARY EURO

I'll be referencing "GFS" and "EURO" models, as those are the two major 'go-to' models.  As a rule of thumb, the EURO does a better job than the GFS when it comes to snow totals, but there is an improved GFS .125 that is a bit more detailed (I'll just call it GFS here). The EURO is a bit slower to develop the totals early on, compared to the GFS, but by the end of the pony ride Monday daybreak they are both hot and heavy on a pretty equal basis.

Before my onslaught of maps, let's talk timing.  Overnight Wednesday and Thursday is a small chance for some freezing rain, with daytime highs going well above freezing. Friday night some light wintry precipitation will begin. It's pretty much all day Saturday and Sunday the snow moves in, heavy at times, maybe a few breaks as well...but this won't be all said and done until early Monday morning, so it appears.

I'll be stacking the timed maps of accumulations with the GFS first and the EURO second.  For now, just the maps (remember to click on pics to enlarge):

SAT NOON GFS

SAT NOON EURO

SAT NOON GFS

SAT NOON EURO

SAT 6PM GFS

SAT 6PM EURO

SAT 6PM SIGNIFICANT WX GFS

SAT 6PM SIGNIFICANT WX EURO

SAT 9PM GFS

SAT 9PM EURO

SUN NOON GFS

SUN NOON EURO

SUN 6PM GFS

SUN 6PM EURO

SUN 6PM EURO
THIS IS DISTURBING...

MON 6AM GFS

MON 6AM EURO

I preface this with "I know it's early and it can change", but to see these two models showing serious and similar snow totals makes my old weather ears perk up.  And that 6pm Sunday "significant weather" map showing widespread icing potential in the EURO would be disastrous, if we were to get a layer of ice on the snow.  That part is far too early to call, but I hope that model calms down in future runs.

For the moment, just throwing all of this out there so you might want to think ahead of the curve and have what you might need.  Power outages are always a possibility, and not being able to travel our roads is almost a given should the heavy totals come to pass.  I had surgery last Thursday, so I'm not in the best position to tackle the snow, but I'll have my UTV and snowplow set and ready to go.

I'll update after more model runs and report any changes in a day or two as this system comes into focus.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACA

 

If you read the advisory without any other knowledge, you'd think we're in for one heckuva snow storm tonight.  But we're not.  Usually, wording is added for 'near the TN line' or something to that effect, but it flat out says that for Haywood County 2-4" with up to 11" (isolated) of snow possible above 3500'.  Not here.  0.5" to 1.5" should be it for ACA by daybreak tomorrow, with temps well down in the teens.  What sticks stays, at least for the day, but please don't look for a Snowmageddon.  

HERE is the advisory for your perusal.

I still can't decide on leaving the mountain tonight, but for now I'll salt my driveway before going to bed and trust Apple Creek Road will be passable to head to my appointment at 6am, unless I see a turn in the models for more snow later today.  Thursday will be a bitterly cold day all around the board.

This evening, there should be some rain showers, maybe mixing with snow, before the temps really start dropping and the NW flow snow bands start arriving.  We're all worried about an icy belly to any snow that sticks, but I sense it will be minimal this go 'round, especially if there is a bit of a break between liquid and frozen.  Cold dry air can evaporate things quickly.

If I see significant changes I'll post it here this evening.  Otherwise, please use the Facebook page HERE for everyone's input and updates on conditions in the morning.

Bob

WEATHER STUFF THIS WEEK

 

January dawn (click to enlarge)

"Stuff" is such a professional word, eh?  Today we have a wind advisory through 6pm for, you guessed it, gusty winds, forever providing the chance for a tree down and resulting power outage.  Let's hope not.  Crashing cold air will be quickly moving in today and tonight, waking us up from our rather mild temps of late.  Some snow flurries will be around for a while as snow bands cruise in from TN from the NW,

The other 'heads up' is for overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning when we should see some limited accumulation of snow.  It doesn't appear to be anything more than the nuisance type of snow we've had so far this season, but I'm awaiting model runs closer to that time-frame for any changes.  Most of the accumulation should be done before sunrise Thursday.

I have decided to get off the mountain Wednesday night as I have surgery first thing Thursday morning and can't afford to not be there, so taking the side of precaution.  Check in on the Apple Creek Facebook page HERE for comments on conditions at that time.

If somebody tells you to "go fly a kite!" today, be careful.

Bob

HOA MAILING/DUES UPDATE

12-21-2025 dawn from the end of Staymon Rd (click to enlarge)

By this time, you would have received the year's end update along with lot dues for 2026.  That IS being mailed out this week, but the lengthy delay was due to an absence of an electronic data base of lot owners that was never provided, even after repeated requests.  The new board had to recreate a digital copy from a lone paper form of lot owners, a time-consuming effort done by David Stiles with Keith Patton's help.  At least from here forward, ACAHOA will have digital files that are easily transferrable for the future.  David has done a yeoman's job not only of creating the database but digging through Haywood GIS and sketching out properties and related information, which will be added into database files.  It's been a slog, but an appreciated (and needed) slog.

In the update, you will see the adjusted lot dues has been lowered back to $300 per lot, down from the $500 adjustment in 2024 for Hurricane Helene's damage to ACA roads.  For a second year in a row, paving has not been performed due to the remaining backlog of post-Helene paving on the part of our paving company.  With $39,000 already ear-marked for 2026, our backlogged paving work will be completed.  Should winter weather decide to dump on us this season, our coffers will sustain us, with the weather pattern continuing to be, well, strange.  As I type it's 11 degrees at home, but the cold dissipates after 24-36 hours this go-round.  This, after our very mild "Christmas at the Coast" temperatures last week.

We (the new board) ask you to please update your dues form with any address, name, phone, email, etc. changes you may have, so that we can put the final touches on our digital files. It would be greatly appreciated.  :-)

This blog is for my longer informational posts, be it ACA concerns or more in-depth weather 'heads up' notices, etc .  Our Facebook page is for timely, quick communications, especially with respect to road conditions or other real-time concerns.  You can go HERE to link to it.

Cheers in advance to the new year ahead...even if it becomes Mr. Toad's Wild Ride.

Bob