HOLIDAY WEATHER IN ACA

This time of year is always a tricky one if the weather is squirrely, with so many people traveling in and/or out of Apple Creek.  Luckily, the weather is pretty tame insofar as travel issues go this year.  Lots of rain incoming soon, then clearing some Christmas Day.  There is ever so slight a chance the last of the rain switches to snow briefly around midnight Christmas Eve, but travel won't be affected.  Deep cold is simply not in the forecast, though marginal temps this weekend may make for a very limited rain-snow mix in the very limited moisture field moving in.  Again, zero travel issues for anyone. 

With that said, I hope everyone has a safe and wonderful holiday as 2014 comes to a close.  In my former life I did a lot of a Capella singing...a young group called Pentatonix is doing some neat things in that department, so I'm posting a holiday song of theirs you might like.

Bob

BLACK ICE, MORE LIGHT SNOW

0.2-0.3" of snow here at the end of Staymon this AM, so just a really heavy dusting. I found a goodly amount of black ice on my steep driveway so had to salt it.  However, I got a call that at least from Staymon Rd to the bottom, Apple Creek Road was in good shape with no problem areas.

Flurries and snow showers could continue sporadically today and any accumulations should be limited to our higher elevations, much like yesterday.  A colder day today, though, with most of us not getting out of the 30s.

Bob

CAUTION ON APPLE CREEK ROAD

Since our Thanksgiving snow, there's been a good bit of travel up and down our main road.  Traveled it myself a good bit.  However, I just made a run into town and was surprised at the sudden iciness of the shaded road sections above the blue roof house.  All the travel has taken the limited snow and packed it into a dangerously icy coat...by the looks of some other tell-tale tire tracks, others have not only slipped but not fared well.

Temps are warming nicely this weekend, but for anyone heading out, take it very cautiously.  I hope the situation will abate by tomorrow afternoon.

Bob

HAPPY THANKSGIVING! NOW GO SHOVEL....

Snow about 4am this morning

Nothing says Happy Thanksgiving like a white turkey!  I have right at 3" of snow now here at the end of Staymon, but I'm near 3800' so I don't know what we have on the roads at the bottom of ACA which is close to 1,000' lower.  I'm getting out and driving later and not anticipating troubles, just some good ol' exercise taking care of my driveway.  I may or may not be able to update this later today, so if you have any road reports, etc., please post them below in the comments section.

Bob

ROUND 2 TONIGHT

Nature:1  Forecast:0

Temperature here hit 33 around 5:30am and rain changed to snow for a heavy burst of less than 1/2".  Below 3500' there was nothing, basically.  Tonight and Thursday there is another chance for 1-3" of snow, with lows that will be below 32 degrees...so now a matter of how much moisture is left to pass through.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from midnight through noon Thanksgiving Day.  1-3" of snow is forecast. Winds will be a bit gustier, as well.  Thankfully, highs today will keep the ground warmish for the next incoming cold shot.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

This is an odd event coming in, odd because we may not drop to 32 degrees until Wednesday night.  Instead of coming in from the NW, a low off the Carolina coast will spin moisture up from the coast and pull down some colder air aloft, and the ruling thought is we'll accumulate a few inches of wet snow.  There may be no accumulation for places near us to the north....Maggie's zone forecast calls for no accumulation overnight.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 9pm tonight through 12 noon Wednesday.  2-4" of wet snow is expected in the advisory counties, especially to the south. 

My models have both had ACA in a 3-5" zone, but I expect some melting if not rain mixing in as our forecast low is only 33 degrees.  The latest run of the NAM has us in 10-12", so maybe it is seeing potentially colder temps and more snow/less rain. The GFS has not yet followed suit.  Ugh.  Given our warm ground temps, I really don't expect travel troubles in ACA unless you have only 2WD which might be problematic in thicker slush should it amount to that on our roads. The 2-4" outlook for the moment seems plausible.

Snow chances, albeit limited, will return Wednesday night and parts of Thanksgiving Day when temperatures will be colder, just less moisture to work with.

Bob

WEATHER INFO

In part, I wanted to post some info on the past couple of weeks for those homeowners that are not up here on the mountain, to keep them informed...but also to look ahead for a potentially wintry mix Tuesday night through Wednesday for those here.

Before the first of two cold waves hit, we were experiencing strong inversions.  Before sunrise one morning, I had 51 degrees on my deck and when I got to Ingles it was 29 degrees....that's an astounding 22 degree inversion from just over 1000' elevation change.  In the first cold wave, I had a Friday low/high of 17/22, with a low of 14 Saturday morning before warming up.  Thankfully it did as I had 1.26" or rain Sunday.

The second cold hit was record setting in many locations...I have never seen single digit lows this early here, as it got down to 9 degrees behind the front, with 11 degrees the following morning. Thankfully it warmed again, and just yesterday Sunday's rain tallied 1.05" in my gauge here at the end of Staymon.

Lot of travel plans inbound and outbound around Apple Creek this week with Thanksgiving days away.  Yet another cold hit is also coming in Tuesday, though it won't be the bitter cold of the other two shots.  Regardless, we may well be in for a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Too early to tell which side of the temperature fence we will fall on, but my two snow models are already putting out 1-3" for ACA, with one pushing 3-5".  For now, the thinking is just 1" or less based on temps being just that critical degree or two warmer allowing for less frozen precip.  So just a heads up for the moment.  I'm pretty sure I'll post a more formal outlook by Tuesday afternoon.

Bob