WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

ACA is now under a Winter Weather Advisory for locations above 3500' from 7pm tonight through noon Friday.  For those up here, you've felt the temperature drop this afternoon (34 as I type near 3:45pm), with whippy winds that have brought down numerous dead limbs on our roads. In addition, a Wind Advisory is in place through 6pm Friday, with these gusty winds continuing.

My favored models still hold a dusting-1", but the National Weather Service sees something more in the 1"-2" category.  Probably closer to the TN border, but if the upslope snow showers come SE directly inline with I-40, we could see close to that.  Heavier snow could cover our roads, at least in part, but if these winds stay up, it will also keep it from accumulating in spots.  Highs Friday are expected to stay in the 30s.

All that to say we may well have some slick roads on at least the upper half of Apple Creek Road overnight into Friday morning.  For our new residents, that magical 3500' line is the Moskos family's blue roof house on AC Road at Dawen Circle.  Often you'll see big changes above and below that location.

The weekend has a warm-up in store with solid rain chances Sunday and Monday.  In the previous post today, I mentioned 'snow' afoot in the long-term forecast around January 5-6 late next week.  More on that as the time approaches.


Bob

2016: Quick Wrap

I hope this post finds everyone continuing to enjoy the holidays. Been rather quiet on the mountain, and thankfully rains returned to our forecasts after the devastating Gatlinburg (and other) fires since the last post.

Back several weeks we had a solid shot of Arctic air where lows got into the lower teens a couple of mornings...but to date we have not had even a skiff of snow, and temperatures have returned to the mild side of the fence.  In fact, on Christmas evening it was still 52 degrees at 8pm....quite the contrast to 6 years ago when we got 9" of snow in ACA!

Christmas 2010 @ end of Staymon Rd.

Late tonight, there is a limited chance for a dusting-1" snow...with our warm ground temps, should the snow even fall, I don't foresee any travel issues getting off the mountain.  Pretty minor set-up.  

If you want to see a decent snow, you may well get your wish the end of next week, January 5-6.  Preliminary outlooks suggest 4"-7" of snow, but with so many variables this far out, just a heads up for now.

May you all continue to have a safe and enjoyable holiday, and best wishes for a grand start to 2017!  I'll be posting weather/travel updates closer to any event that may be heading our way.

Bob

EARLY DECEMBER UPDATE

SUNRISE, end of Staymon

Well, we've gone from famine to feast, at least kinda sorta...light rain is falling as I type.  We got just just over 2.25" late last week over a few days, and already have more with rain that started Sunday with 0.27" by 7am. This after a bit of a strong drought here in Haywood County.  The fires have been devastating, especially in east Tennessee, but Haywood County has been spared all along.  Hopefully all this rain has at the very least tamed the fires...

For starters, here is an excellent website showing before and after aerial pictures of the Gatlinburg area where at last count 11 people died, along with numerous structures. Click on GATLINBURG FIRES . You slide the bar left and right to see the before and after pictures.

Wintry weather has been slow to manifest this season, but we have a very good chance of seeing a dusting this coming Thursday evening.  Lows will approach the single digits Friday morning, by far the coldest of the season, so make sure your well-head is well insulated.  It won't last long, thankfully.  For those new to the mountain and ACA, a light coating on the road is troublesome for drivers in ACA.  I would like to think there will be no troubles early Friday morning, but I'll update later this week if I see changes/concerns.

In all, we've been fortunate, and the recent rains will only help our wells.  I'll update as needed, of course.


Bob

WHERE THERE'S SMOKE....

(click on pics to enlarge)

Smoky view from end of Staymon 1-6-19-16

Thanks to a large wildfire in Jackson County, current light winds have been blowing the expansive smoke into Haywood County.  You can see it and smell it...and for those not on the mountain, we are officially in a Severe Drought, with Extreme Drought south and west of us.  High pressure ridges have been dominating the Southeast for over two months, and there is no relief in sight anytime soon. The jetstream needs to start moving to shift the ridges away from here, and there is no sign of significant movement yet.  

Besides needing rain badly, our utility bills have been pleasantly low thanks to the warm temperatures overall.  While not the upper 70s, we'll still be above the average high of around 63 degrees this coming week.  At the end of Staymon, I've still had only 35 degrees as the coldest morning since last season, and no frost yet. Inversions have been alive and well as the valleys have been the colder and frostier locations.

Dawn from the end of Staymon 10-30-16

To end on a nicer note, above is some pretty dawn color from last Sunday.  Thankfully, Daylight Saving Time has kicked in so I can see more dawns like this before heading to work.  


Bob

CATCHING UP...

10-22-16 Saturday dawn (click to enlarge)

October 22. Saturday morning a rather remarkable record of sorts was set...it was by far the latest ever I have recorded my first reading in the 30s to start our descent into the winter months.  Got down to 35 degrees about the time the above photo was taken at the end of Staymon.  Just in the prior days record highs were set in Asheville (84, 84) and Greenville-Spartanburg (89, 87)....and this after the warmest September on record for Asheville.

But now it finally feels like October, and the color is a bit behind schedule.  Rain has been hard to come by...picked up 0.42" with the Hurricane Matthew passage off the NC coast, and just 0.16" Friday with the cold front passage.  The leaves came down mightily Thursday and Friday in the windy conditions, totally covering portions of our roads, but there was a charm (if not a slippery one) driving through it.

Had a bizarre situation happen 2 weeks ago at the intersection of Hall Top and Mauney Cove.  A pickup truck had turned up onto Hall Top and stopped in the middle of the road...Bus #52 was coming down and had to stop...after being stopped for a minute, the truck ever so slowly backed up and headed back down Mauney, slowly at first...then faster and weaving and was far into the left lane, swerving to narrowly miss a red car coming up Mauney.  They then hit the brakes and threw the truck into reverse near the book store and came right at me.  I hit the horn and threw my car into reverse and thankfully no one was behind me.  Then a man came running up from the book store driveway yelling "Who fired that rifle?" at the gray truck who slowly turned into that drive and stopped, the man yelling at the driver to get out of the truck in colorful language...all that to say it was a very scary situation of someone either extremely drunk or high on drugs driving, and with the yelling about a rifle I got out of there as quickly as I could.  Never found out any more than that, and thankfully I didn't watch a potentially deadly head-on collision take place.

It was only a week before that that one of our residents was out for a night dog walk and saw a vehicle stopped with the interior cab light on. As they approached, the driver was clearly visible shooting up drugs in his arm. The walker turned on their flashlight and told them to get the hell out of here and they sped off.  Unfortunately, they were unable to get a tag # but did what we all should do when we see something like that: call the sheriff (828-452-6666).  It wasn't a resident of ACA, but a stark reminder that we are not immune to society's ills here on our mountain.  Everyone's vigilance is greatly appreciated.

If you love the Farmer's Almanac, it calls for a snowy cold winter here...but it is odd man out stacked against National Weather Service long range forecasts.  Most models say we'll stay above average for temps into December, and then be right around average for temps into 2017.  Precipitation may still be hard to come by for a while as we have seen a parade of high pressure cells set up over the Southeast which is supposed to continue.  Not that we won't get some solid cold snaps and hits of good rain once in a while, mind you, it's just the overall trend at this time.  The upside is I'm loving my utility bills so far.  :-)


Bob

HEADS UP: POACHERS

'Tis the season.

Ginseng 

With fall here in the favorable mountain elevations, ginseng or " 'sang" is heading into tell-tale red berry season.  Truth be told, it has many wonderful medicinal properties, ginseng, the roots of which bring a pretty penny these days.  And with that lucrative lure comes the poachers that will do whatever it takes to find and dig up the plant.

That means trespassing and not giving a tinker's damn about your property and your rights.  And right here in Apple Creek.  Sadly, it's an annual event, but there IS something each of us can do.

When you see a strange vehicle in a location that is not normal, get the tag number and call the Haywood Sheriff's office.  If you see strangers walking on or near your property and you don't know who they are, be observant with descriptions and call the Haywood Sheriff's office.  Our Community Watch program is only effective as our diligent observations and awareness, and there is an officer dedicated to Apple Creek Acres.

Haywood Sheriff's Office: 828-452-6666

Put it in your cell phone if you haven't done so already.

PAVING DATE CHANGE

What was September 8 for a day of paving on Apple Creek Road has now been shifted to Tuesday September 13.  Pass the word.


Bob