Winter Outlook 2010-11

If there is one question every is asking is "What is the forecast for this winter?"  After last winter's very snowy and icy experience, none are anxious for a repeat. Last winter was 'below average' temps and 'above average' precipitation.

In short, temps look to run close to "equal chances" for temps above or below average, which basically translates into 'average'; precipitation is forecast to be average or slightly below average.  That bodes well, but keep in mind those are broad-brush strokes.  I've put sequential, overlapping 90-day outlook maps from the National Weather Service below.

With that said, you can still have wickedly cold snaps, but they shouldn't stay entrenched for long.  If a storm system comes in with warmer air, it can hold more water, and you can always get a perfectly timed cold front that meets up with the more watery air mass and get a big snow; however, the numbers are clearly pointing at a less snowy and potentially warmer winter than last year.

Only because it is upon us  am I leading with a map I saved early Saturday that was pointing to what the National Weather Service is calling for: potentially a half-foot of rain here at Apple Creek Sunday through Monday.  While we need rain, too much of a good thing has its own drawbacks, eh?  If you have to hit the roads, watch out for certain ponding and potential hydroplaning....

POTENTIAL RAIN TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY 9-27

NOV-JAN TEMPS

DEC-FEB TEMPS

FEB-APR TEMPS

  

MAR-MAY TEMPS

NOV-JAN PRECIP

DEC-FEB PRECIP

JAN-MAR PRECIP

FEB-APR PRECIP

MAR-MAY PRECIP

Apple Creek elevations

So the first day of fall has come in as if it were summer.  Dontcha just know there will be good cold snap soon enough, reminding us that winter is not too far away.  Because I will be keeping an extremely and updated eye on our winter weather situations ahead, I wanted to know where the key elevations were within Apple Creek Acres.  With winter storms I can pick apart the timing of 'freezing levels', critical for road conditions.  Thought you'd like to know what I dug up....

(NOTE: not that these are exciting pictures, but for any of these blog photos, you can click on photos to enlarge them)

2885'    Entrance elevation

 

3000'    Just below Chris Martin's house

3300'    Just above the "Blue Roof" house

 

3500'    Just above the last hairpin curve 

(below mirror)

3630'     Entrance to Staymon Road

3900'     the gate at the end of Apple Creek Road

(by the way, when the signs say 'No Turn-Around',

they ain't jokin'!!!)  Also the same elevation

as the end of Tanneyhill Lane

Couldn't 'bear' not to show this creative driveway entrance!

If you want to explore a really neat website, check out this link:

HAYWOOD GIS

It's a fairly intuitive database in which  you can find out amazing amounts of information   The maps allow you to turn on-off layers like topo lines, satellite imagery, roads, sewers, and so much more...a powerful database, it is

All the news I have for now.  Enjoy the warmth while we have it!

Bob Child.

COMMUNITY WATCH ALERT!

The following is a community watch alert from Chris Martin, whom many of you already know.  He has been in contact with the Haywood County Sheriff's department concerning the following recent and real threat within our community:

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To All ACA Road Watch volunteers and community members:

A member of the Cabe family on Dawin Circle road is being stalked.

The Haywood County Sheriffs Department is involved therefore you may see additional patrols along the road.

The Cabe family is considering this situation "serious".

If  you observe a BLACK HEAVY DUTY QUAD CAB (4 full doors) pick-up truck with a Tennessee Walking Horse plate on the FRONT (NC tag in rear?). Please call the Sheriff's Department at 828-452-6666  immediately.   

This message will also appear on  the AppleCreekAcres.blogspot.com, our new community news blog. 

For additional information call Chris Martin, 828-456-2999 828-400-9754, Community Watch Coordinator

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Thanks in advance for everyone's help in this matter.  Our wonderful 'home' is only as safe as we all help it to be, and your caring, vigilant eyes help tremendously.

"Where did summer go?"

(Click pics to enlarge)

 

 A sudden change in air masses occurred from the cold front that kept Hurricane Earl just off the East coast late last week...the air has been clear and cool and of great clarity for views...a harbinger that fall is not too far away.  It has been a hot summer, here, even at the higher elevations.  Proof in the pudding, this from the National Weather Service dated Wed. Sept. 1, 2010:

 THIS WAS THE WARMEST SUMMER EVER RECORDED AT ASHEVILLE...

WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 75.4 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS 

RECORD WAS 75.1 DEGREES IN 1952. FOR THE MONTHS OF JUNE...

JULY AND AUGUST...THERE HAVE BEEN 19 DAYS AT ASHEVILLE 

WITH HIGHS OF 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THE HOTTEST DAY WAS 

94 DEGREES ON JULY 8.

That makes this almost chilly changeover a welcome relief.  Remind me of that when the heating bills come in this winter...

There is so much to see and do 'round these parts, and I thought from time to time I might suggest some trips for when you have company come up or are looking for a scenic outing.  We went to the Cataloochee ranger station in the SE Smokies yesterday and got to watch the reintroduced Elk herd feeding in an expansive field.  Lazy gravel roads lead you into some peaceful and beautiful areas, that will be bursting with color before long.  The bugling bull reminded me of that, as well...

Back in early August we held our Apple Creek Homeowner's Association Annual Meeting, this time in a new venue at the First Baptist Church in downtown Waynesville.  The economy had forced shortened hours at the public library, our 'normal' go-to location for meetings; many thanks to the church for use of their facility pro bono!  We had a quorum, with just the bare minimum in attendance in body or by proxy.


Among the issues and reports that were brought up, certainly one was road maintenance.  We had a problematic winter season in 2009-2010 with just under a seasonal total of 5 feet of snow (and sleet and freezing rain!) at my house on Staymon.  Having the monster 18" snow out of the gate December 18th, along with our regular plow guy suddenly having equipment failure, we had a very inconvenient start.  Overall, I think we did about as well as could be expected, and we hope to be even better prepared this winter.  I will be putting timely updated podcasts/forecasts via this blog, specific to Apple Creek Acres and our elevation concerns.  Chris Martin is heading up a committee that will not only address road conditions, but provide for effective and timely communications when problems loom.


Another issue I share here that came up were the road repairs made late this summer, with a tar and gravel mix that is less expensive than asphalting.  Some complained about the loose gravel and the sliding on the lower curves, especially, but I am here to say that if anyone had sliding issues, they were driving too fast for Apple Creek Road to begin with.  Speeding is an issue for some, as is cutting inside blind curves; please be responsible for keeping your speed (and lane) in check.  I never once had an issue or problem with the gravel, except for the noise it made underneath my 20-year old wagon!


A third issue I'll bring up last is the importance of maintaining right-of-ways within Apple Creek, ensuring that objects, plants, structures aren't placed too close to the road or infringing on what is community property as opposed to personal property.  We'll all be hearing more about these and other issues later, to be sure.  In the meantime, thanks for all y'all's efforts to take pride in this wonderful slice of heaven we live in.


Bob Child