Monday, November 17, 2014

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Effective NOON today until 6AM Tuesday, ACA is under a Winter Weather Advisory.  Honestly, it's not about accumulations (trace-1.5" except for closer to the TN border) but the chance for the last of the rain to switch over to sleet or freezing rain before a little bit of snow.  It takes little snow or ice to make roads treacherous, and that's the concern with this system, the iciness. Bitter cold coming in quickly for Tuesday and Wednesay before a little warming to end the week.

NOV, 15 looking up to white ridge top from end of Staymon Rd.

In our last cold hit, I recorded a Friday low/high of 17/22 at the end of Staymon, with a Saturday AM low of 14.  Same type temps incoming. Thankfully, we had milder air come in the past couple of afternoons, but it's been raining hard this morning, and depending on how fast the temps drop we could see slippery conditions by this evening.  Digital output has us reaching 32 degrees by 4-5 pm.

All that to say 'heads up' and stay warm...and if you're like me, pile those towels by the door to dry off the four-leggeds.  :-)

Oh, and here was a neat picture I took looking down to the left of Junaluska with AM clouds breaking on a farm.  Click to enlarge.
NOVEMBER 6, 2014 looking down from the end of Staymon Rd.


Bob

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

UPDATE: ROAD WORK 2014

(The following is from our president Keith Patton concerning grading and paving as we round out 2014.  Circumstances far beyond ACAHOA's control have led to a split-work plan. The way I look at it, we'll be able to get a lot more paving done in 2015, after any other winter road damage upcoming.   Bob)
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I have had a lengthy discussion with the road contractor this morning. We have determined that with the weather getting ready to turn cold that we will postpone our paving work until Spring. Many factors have contributed to the work not being able to be done this year. 

1. Asplundh was here for 7 weeks clearing power line right of ways.

2.After they left we had a period of 6-8 weeks with 90%+ humidity when the road did not dry, and scattered rainy days that didn't help matters.

3. Finally, in the last 2 weeks the asphalt plant has had mechanical issues limiting/stopping their production.  All paving companies in this area pull asphalt from this one plant. Aside from their mechanical issues, incoming cold will stop any work regardless, and the plant always closes down for the season well before Thanksgiving.

The grading work planned for the side roads will be done next week as it is not temperature sensitive.  Timing/dates will be passed along as the time nears.

Keith Patton

Monday, November 3, 2014

UPCOMING GRADING/PAVING

I am passing on this information from our president Keith Patton...heads up for road work next week:
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While the weather has thrown every curveball it could on regional paving contracts for what few companies tend to this in Haywood County, we finally have a tentative date for work in Apple Creek.

It's important to know that on the paving day, Apple Creek Road will be paved side to side, requiring that a portion of Apple Creek Road be closed for a period of time.  More details on timing/location will be forthcoming as the day nears, but for now PLEASE pencil these dates in your calendar and be aware that travel will be temporarily halted at certain times next week.

GRADING OF SIDE ROADS: tentatively set for Tuesday, November 11

PAVING/PARTIAL ROAD CLOSURE: tentatively set for Wednesday, November 12

I'm writing this on  Monday afternoon, and depending on weather and other variables, there may be some changes as the dates near.  Any changes and updates will be posted here to help you know more precisely when travel may be temporarily affected.  Thanks in advance for your cooperation.

Bob

Saturday, November 1, 2014

ANOTHER UPDATE



Honestly, we came out very well in ACA, all things considered.  The worst is the sheer volume of leaves that fell in the overnight winds and mixed in with the snow, so above the Moskos' Blue Roof house, Apple Creek Road is quite covered in wet, slushy, slippery leaves.  Roads are great down low, but there is re-freeze tonight which may well make for slippery travel tomorrow in the higher, wetter elevations.  

Reports around the region are beyond impressive.  Luck, NC got 18" of snow, on the TN border north of us in Haywood County, and 22" in Spring Valley in Madison County....8" in Maggie Valley.  I expect very little other accumulation here, though.  The wind is biting, of course, but the week-long forecast is for a warm-up of sorts for us.

Bob

SNOW UPDATE




So far, there are numerous 4-7" snow totals all around us, but I've gotten only 3" in my gauge so far (no complaints, here!), with the wind taking care of some of it. Mt. LeConte in the Smokies had 16" as of 7am (!!!).  

Just plowed my leaf-filled driveway, and the warm ground certainly help with initial melting on the roads, as all was just slushy.  Getting ready to head down the mountain on errands and expect no troubles outside the usual caution wet snow is due.  When I get back, if there were problems, I'll post them.

Bob

Friday, October 31, 2014

WINTER STORM WARNING

(click to enarge any picture)

Here we go...and the first one of this season is a pretty good 'un.  I'll jump right into my normal terms and usage, so if you find it confusing you can search back in the archives and find my posting on a "snow primer" to find out more.

Amounts: I'd been holding off a bit as the two models pretty much had ACA in the 2-3" range for days, but first  the NAM started taking off a hotter and heavier. The GFS has now followed suit.  4-5" for ACA now seems more likely the LOW side of our potential, with 6-8" not out of the question (!!!).  Heavy wet snow can accumulate very quickly. As is usually the case, amounts will be higher toward the top of ACA, lower toward the bottom.

The National Weather Service Winter Storm Warning for ACA runs from 8p TONIGHT through 8pm SATURDAY. 4-6" is expected, and for NW facing slopes on the TN border (not us, of course) up to 10".  Early and late season snow storms can come in with a more moist air source, making for pretty good totals.

Temps: Temperatures will fall below 32 before midnight, and may not get back to that mark until Sunday afternoon.  Yes, the ground will have been warm, so some initial melting will take place, but it's safe to assume our roads will be rather snow covered by the time we wake up Saturday.

Timing: The best looking time periods for accumulation (not just any, but the 'likely' category) is from 3-7am and then again from late morning through early afternoon.  I don't expect the snowfall to be steady all day, rather more snow showery as the afternoon wears on.

Wind: Winds will pick up overnight and be steady in the 20-25mph range most of Saturday, with gusts to 40mph.  With the snow expected to be on the heavy wet side, accumulations could come rapidly in spurts. I've posted storm total graphics that are from the 8p model runs Thursday evening. If there are significant changes, I'll post them at the top here later this afternoon.

Yippee.
8PM Thursday GFS (* is ACA)

8PM Thursday NAM
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Scenes like these will look a bit different with their upcoming white blanket.  I couldn't resist stopping by Chris and Helen's a few days ago to get a few different angles of a flaming maple.  Enjoy!







Bob

Monday, October 27, 2014

LOST PUP: SHADOW


Making a new post here...I had Shadow for about 24 hours before she scooted off again late Saturday morning, around Staymon Road.  The owner is Chelsea Warren, renting the first house where Staymon goes flat.  She now has signs up about her: ~5 months, black lab mix, female, super sweet disposition and very friendly. Please call Chelsea if you have any information: (541) 515-2964. I have already posted info on her with the animal shelter and at Sarge's.  Thanks for everyone's help.

Bob