A SERIOUS HOA ISSUE LOOMS...

Inspiration Point by Lambuth Inn
(our HOA is on part of that mountain)
(click to enlarge)

I sounded this alarm last year, and we're ever closer to a tough decision we as an HOA must address.  No, not from Helene, though that did a whammy in parts of ACA, having us up our dues to $500 per lot this past assessment.  Rather, it's whether we can assemble a board to take over the reins from the current board that has served multiple years running, and they need a break.  They have bent over backwards dealing with our typical issues as well as emergency issues as they arose, and while the board asks every year for volunteers to step forward, it hasn't happened.

Be it president, vice president, treasurer, secretary, etc., the board is calling earnestly for volunteers to help out.  'Payment', per se, is one lot pro bono from assessment.  Meetings heretofore are rather minimal, though phone calls roll back and forth with winter and other situations as they arise.  Even if you don't think you have enough knowledge of this HOA and what they do, there will be plenty of advice for the asking, I'm sure.

The alternative?  Privatizing the HOA and hiring a third party to take it over.  While that may seem like a viable option, the potential cost projections for annual lot assessments will be significantly higher.  Though I am not privy to any further details as the scope of what we would want such a group to actually handle, our very affordable $300 per lot could easily jump to $1,000 or more per lot. LOTS for us all to consider en route to our annual meeting that will be somewhere between late August and early September.

I'll even get the party started by throwing my hat into the ring for Secretary.  I'm swamped with my work at DMV, but I do like communicating and getting information out, and with my weather background I can help in anticipating travel-impacting events before and as they unfold, winter or otherwise.

Please give it some thought and mulling over.  This will not be an easy decision we make as an HOA, but we will need as much input as we can get as that time approaches.  I'll write more in a couple of weeks....just throwing it out there for now.

Bob

A BIT OF SNOW TONIGHT...

 A minor event, but a white covering nonetheless is expected tonight, ending in the wee hours of the morning Friday.  Any travel troubles would be momentary as highs Friday get well above freezing.  Too, the ground will still be warm to aid in lack of accumulation on the roads, but models are all running a trace/dusting down low to up to 1-inch in upper ACA.  A minor March Madness, to be sure.

Bob

"IT WAS A DARK AND STORMY NIGHT..."

Good ol' Snoopy, atop his doghouse, typing away on the start of his novel,,,but that's what we have on tap tonight after midnight through 5-6am.

High winds, heavy rains, and possible lightning should blow through more specifically around 230-430am, and our chances of a power outage are pretty good....to the effect of I've charged all of my emergency lights and put some water in the bathtub for flushing, just in case.

For ACA, though the winds and some minor wrap-around showers might continue early, the system moves east and out of our hair for a much-improving Sunday.  And while this is a cold front, and Monday will be a good deal cooler, it's just the one day before we go back to chilly sunrises and pleasantly tepid afternoons.

Bob

WEDNESDAY MORNING UPDATE

Light snow started around 6am, but the forecast is pretty much the same.  Only light accumulations are expected this morning, before a big lull this afternoon and only off and on snow showers.  By this evening and overnight, a second round of snow, more of a NW flow, sets up shop, so if there are travel troubles it should be for the second round and Thursday AM.

Totals are rather minimal.  The updated advisory is the same as it has been, the 1-3" of mostly snow with some sleet and freezing rain mixing in today, Wednesday.  I'm driving in to work and expect to get home by 530pm or so.

The only thing I have been forgetting to add in is strong winds moving in early Thursday, which may well create power outages on what will be a very cold day.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER UPDATE

 There isn't any significant change to the forecast.  Light snow should be falling by daybreak in the morning, but it's light and there may be some rain and sleet mixing in by late morning.  Then a big break mid-day as dry air moves in, helping to melt any snow buildup.  Roads warmed Tuesday, so I don't anticipate travel troubles, really, in the AM hours.  Main roads have already been brined.

Wednesday evening and overnight, the backside deformation could instigate some solid NW flow snow showers, to where Thursday morning is a bigger concern for travel issues than Wednesday morning.

The overall idea is that amounts from this system are light, and the original 1-3" in the advisory is correct for ACA.  Models simply aren't going for quantity.  The biggest issue is how much sleet and rain mix in....keep in mind, slushy snow, even if just an inch, is exceptionally slippery, hence my concern on our mountain.

I'll update before heading in to work Wednesday morning.  The most recent NWS bulleting is HERE.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AHEAD...

 

Before I get going on the yucky Wednesday coming up, I will be making soon a big post on the situation with the washing out roadside just below the upper hairpin curve, which took a good hit with our recent heavy rains.  It's a sticky wicket to say the least.

From 6am Wednesday through noon on Thursday, ACA is in a Winter Weather Advisory which you can read HERE. The Cliff Notes version therein is 1-3" of mostly snow with periods of sleet and freezing rain mixing in.

In poring over the various models, this isn't about the totals but the iciness that potentially will mix in.  Ice is the great equalizer, but the NWS is forecasting only light glazing.  I simply don't see any models nearing the 3" mark for ACA except the RDPS (if you must know the acronym, it's 'Regional Deterministic Prediction System'. You're welcome.)

This is all about timing and temperature.  The high-end forecast is for ACA is 3-6", which as of 4am Accuweather was predicting a 49% chance for, and 47% for 1-3".  Just a tiny tip one way or the other per temps and precip will have a big impact on totals.

Overall, this is a big event for Virginia, so areas closer to the VA border will have more accumulation.  Even Charlotte will be getting a bit of snow, but there will be a warm nose that will try and work it's way in the SW Blue Ridge, which is a snow killer.

At this moment, the advisory seems to be spot on.  Wording and forecasts will hone in throughout the day, and I'll update once I get home from work this evening.

Bob

NOW A WINTER STORM WARNING...

Our Winter Storm Watch is now a Warning as the timeframe approaches.  The Warning is in effect from 7am Sunday through 7am Monday. Read details HERE.

Temps will be marginal Sunday morning through mid-day, so it may be wet snow, rain, sleet, all of which does not bode well for the crashing cold Sunday night into Monday morning.  Unlike our last snow that was grippy with no ice to speak of, our slushy leftover stuff will become ice in this upcoming event, so I expect more travel troubles from this one.

No doubt areas near the TN border will get dumped on, with decreasing amounts toward ACA.  The valleys should see accumulating snow, but probably just in the 1-2" category, with 3-5" possible above 3500', which is the upper ACA.  The Smokies, Max Patch, etc., could well see 6-9".

I'm here on the mountain for this one, so I'll update as needed.  Assuming this all comes to pass, it will be most helpful once again to stay off the roads until the plow can get up here and salt behind it at some point Monday.  Again, being a holiday, that should help.

Bob