Wednesday, November 26, 2014

ROUND 2 TONIGHT

Nature:1  Forecast:0

Temperature here hit 33 around 5:30am and rain changed to snow for a heavy burst of less than 1/2".  Below 3500' there was nothing, basically.  Tonight and Thursday there is another chance for 1-3" of snow, with lows that will be below 32 degrees...so now a matter of how much moisture is left to pass through.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from midnight through noon Thanksgiving Day.  1-3" of snow is forecast. Winds will be a bit gustier, as well.  Thankfully, highs today will keep the ground warmish for the next incoming cold shot.

Bob

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

This is an odd event coming in, odd because we may not drop to 32 degrees until Wednesday night.  Instead of coming in from the NW, a low off the Carolina coast will spin moisture up from the coast and pull down some colder air aloft, and the ruling thought is we'll accumulate a few inches of wet snow.  There may be no accumulation for places near us to the north....Maggie's zone forecast calls for no accumulation overnight.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 9pm tonight through 12 noon Wednesday.  2-4" of wet snow is expected in the advisory counties, especially to the south. 

My models have both had ACA in a 3-5" zone, but I expect some melting if not rain mixing in as our forecast low is only 33 degrees.  The latest run of the NAM has us in 10-12", so maybe it is seeing potentially colder temps and more snow/less rain. The GFS has not yet followed suit.  Ugh.  Given our warm ground temps, I really don't expect travel troubles in ACA unless you have only 2WD which might be problematic in thicker slush should it amount to that on our roads. The 2-4" outlook for the moment seems plausible.

Snow chances, albeit limited, will return Wednesday night and parts of Thanksgiving Day when temperatures will be colder, just less moisture to work with.

Bob

Monday, November 24, 2014

WEATHER INFO

In part, I wanted to post some info on the past couple of weeks for those homeowners that are not up here on the mountain, to keep them informed...but also to look ahead for a potentially wintry mix Tuesday night through Wednesday for those here.

Before the first of two cold waves hit, we were experiencing strong inversions.  Before sunrise one morning, I had 51 degrees on my deck and when I got to Ingles it was 29 degrees....that's an astounding 22 degree inversion from just over 1000' elevation change.  In the first cold wave, I had a Friday low/high of 17/22, with a low of 14 Saturday morning before warming up.  Thankfully it did as I had 1.26" or rain Sunday.

The second cold hit was record setting in many locations...I have never seen single digit lows this early here, as it got down to 9 degrees behind the front, with 11 degrees the following morning. Thankfully it warmed again, and just yesterday Sunday's rain tallied 1.05" in my gauge here at the end of Staymon.

Lot of travel plans inbound and outbound around Apple Creek this week with Thanksgiving days away.  Yet another cold hit is also coming in Tuesday, though it won't be the bitter cold of the other two shots.  Regardless, we may well be in for a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Too early to tell which side of the temperature fence we will fall on, but my two snow models are already putting out 1-3" for ACA, with one pushing 3-5".  For now, the thinking is just 1" or less based on temps being just that critical degree or two warmer allowing for less frozen precip.  So just a heads up for the moment.  I'm pretty sure I'll post a more formal outlook by Tuesday afternoon.

Bob

Monday, November 17, 2014

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Effective NOON today until 6AM Tuesday, ACA is under a Winter Weather Advisory.  Honestly, it's not about accumulations (trace-1.5" except for closer to the TN border) but the chance for the last of the rain to switch over to sleet or freezing rain before a little bit of snow.  It takes little snow or ice to make roads treacherous, and that's the concern with this system, the iciness. Bitter cold coming in quickly for Tuesday and Wednesay before a little warming to end the week.

NOV, 15 looking up to white ridge top from end of Staymon Rd.

In our last cold hit, I recorded a Friday low/high of 17/22 at the end of Staymon, with a Saturday AM low of 14.  Same type temps incoming. Thankfully, we had milder air come in the past couple of afternoons, but it's been raining hard this morning, and depending on how fast the temps drop we could see slippery conditions by this evening.  Digital output has us reaching 32 degrees by 4-5 pm.

All that to say 'heads up' and stay warm...and if you're like me, pile those towels by the door to dry off the four-leggeds.  :-)

Oh, and here was a neat picture I took looking down to the left of Junaluska with AM clouds breaking on a farm.  Click to enlarge.
NOVEMBER 6, 2014 looking down from the end of Staymon Rd.


Bob

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

UPDATE: ROAD WORK 2014

(The following is from our president Keith Patton concerning grading and paving as we round out 2014.  Circumstances far beyond ACAHOA's control have led to a split-work plan. The way I look at it, we'll be able to get a lot more paving done in 2015, after any other winter road damage upcoming.   Bob)
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I have had a lengthy discussion with the road contractor this morning. We have determined that with the weather getting ready to turn cold that we will postpone our paving work until Spring. Many factors have contributed to the work not being able to be done this year. 

1. Asplundh was here for 7 weeks clearing power line right of ways.

2.After they left we had a period of 6-8 weeks with 90%+ humidity when the road did not dry, and scattered rainy days that didn't help matters.

3. Finally, in the last 2 weeks the asphalt plant has had mechanical issues limiting/stopping their production.  All paving companies in this area pull asphalt from this one plant. Aside from their mechanical issues, incoming cold will stop any work regardless, and the plant always closes down for the season well before Thanksgiving.

The grading work planned for the side roads will be done next week as it is not temperature sensitive.  Timing/dates will be passed along as the time nears.

Keith Patton

Monday, November 3, 2014

UPCOMING GRADING/PAVING

I am passing on this information from our president Keith Patton...heads up for road work next week:
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While the weather has thrown every curveball it could on regional paving contracts for what few companies tend to this in Haywood County, we finally have a tentative date for work in Apple Creek.

It's important to know that on the paving day, Apple Creek Road will be paved side to side, requiring that a portion of Apple Creek Road be closed for a period of time.  More details on timing/location will be forthcoming as the day nears, but for now PLEASE pencil these dates in your calendar and be aware that travel will be temporarily halted at certain times next week.

GRADING OF SIDE ROADS: tentatively set for Tuesday, November 11

PAVING/PARTIAL ROAD CLOSURE: tentatively set for Wednesday, November 12

I'm writing this on  Monday afternoon, and depending on weather and other variables, there may be some changes as the dates near.  Any changes and updates will be posted here to help you know more precisely when travel may be temporarily affected.  Thanks in advance for your cooperation.

Bob

Saturday, November 1, 2014

ANOTHER UPDATE



Honestly, we came out very well in ACA, all things considered.  The worst is the sheer volume of leaves that fell in the overnight winds and mixed in with the snow, so above the Moskos' Blue Roof house, Apple Creek Road is quite covered in wet, slushy, slippery leaves.  Roads are great down low, but there is re-freeze tonight which may well make for slippery travel tomorrow in the higher, wetter elevations.  

Reports around the region are beyond impressive.  Luck, NC got 18" of snow, on the TN border north of us in Haywood County, and 22" in Spring Valley in Madison County....8" in Maggie Valley.  I expect very little other accumulation here, though.  The wind is biting, of course, but the week-long forecast is for a warm-up of sorts for us.

Bob