Thursday, January 31, 2013

Another WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Here we go again...my, but that wind is biting, and morning lows will at best be in the low teens for many of us, with single digits possible.  Several have said they need to cut on their warming lights near their pump heads, etc....good night for it.

While some flakes might fall late tonight, the best chances for accumulating snow should arrive around midnight or shortly thereafter.  Our advisory is for up to 2" of snow by morning, which stands to reason, though continuing winds could blow it around and lessen it.  

My two models are showing the GFS at 1" and NAM at 1-3", so 1-2" seems reasonable. Though Apple Creek Road was salted this morning, snow can still accumulate on top, so just use good ol' common sense traveling early tomorrow.

Another sunny day Friday, like today...and then yet another limited chance for accumulating snow later in the day Saturday into Saturday night.  Feel the excitement.

Bob

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

WEATHER UPDATE

UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45 AM: 
1" snow, but not AS nasty icy on the bottom as the last snow...23 degrees...got up at 330a and power was out again, I phoned it in, and when I woke up it was back on.  Please put any road conditions or salting updates in the comments section, or email me and I'll put 'em in.  Thanks!

Boisterous system is heading our way...just got an interoffice briefing from the GSP office, and they think our windfields could have gusts in the 40-60mph range from the pre-dawn hours Wednesday through the frontal passage later in the day.  Trees and power lines could be like Jericho's walls and come tumblin' down.

There is also the threat of thunderstorms at severe limits, the main concern being straight-line winds of the damaging variety...as well as 2-3" of rain for the central mountains. It may be the higher side of those amounts falls on the other side of the Blue Ridge Parkway from us; regardless, mo' rain coming, and it will not be the easy, soaking garden variety.  The top end of Staymon is a soft, muddy mess, but I guess if there is a silver lining, it's that sub-freezing overnight temps will soon be here, making it temporarily hard.  :-/

Overnight Wednesday some snow showers are forecast to wrap in here, though models keep ACA in the 0-1" range.  The Smokies and Plott Balsams stand to pick up 1-3", and the latter are very close to ACA.

In short, power outages and downed trees are the biggest concern from this vigorous cold front.  Suffice it to say I'm letting the sawdust fly all day today.  If I see significant changes, I'll update around or just after supper time this evening.

Bob


Tuesday, January 29, 2013

High Winds, Storms, and Cold....

UPDATE WEDNESDAY AM: 1am...1" snow, but not AS nasty icy on the bottom as the last snow...23 degrees...got up at 330a and power was out again, I phoned it in, and when I woke up it was back on.  Please put any road conditions or salting updates in the comments section, or email me and I'll put 'em in.  Thanks!

Boisterous system is heading our way...just got an interoffice briefing from the GSP office, and they think our windfields could have gusts in the 40-60mph range from the pre-dawn hours Wednesday through the frontal passage later in the day.  Trees and power lines could be like Jericho's walls and come tumblin' down.

There is also the threat of thunderstorms at severe limits, the main concern being straight-line winds of the damaging variety...as well as 2-3" of rain for the central mountains. It may be the higher side of those amounts falls on the other side of the Blue Ridge Parkway from us; regardless, mo' rain coming, and it will not be the easy, soaking garden variety.  The top end of Staymon is a soft, muddy mess, but I guess if there is a silver lining, it's that sub-freezing overnight temps will soon be here, making it temporarily hard.  :-/

Overnight Wednesday some snow showers are forecast to wrap in here, though models keep ACA in the 0-1" range.  The Smokies and Plott Balsams stand to pick up 1-3", and the latter are very close to ACA.

In short, power outages and downed trees are the biggest concern from this vigorous cold front.  Suffice it to say I'm letting the sawdust fly all day today.  If I see significant changes, I'll update around or just after supper time this evening.

Bob


Friday, January 25, 2013

Friday AM Update

10:25a update:  Thanks,Chris, for your comment below.  I'm getting ready to pull out soon, and I'll try and phone Chris with my take on Apple Creek Road from Staymon to the bottom, and beyond if there are issues.  I have a steep driveway, and because I am not fond thinking about being in a 5,000 pound bowling ball, I salted my icy driveway.  If there is a minor piece of good news it's that the sleet that mixed in gives the ice on my deck, stairs, and driveway some limited sense of grip. While there is a 'lull' as I type, I see another good batch of moisture approaching I-81 in TN, which will be here soon enough.  My temp rose to 26, but it has flatlined for a good while.  FYI, click HERE for a great NC DOT website with an interactive traffic map...select a route, region, etc., zoom in and move around, and it updates with color coded road conditions that give you a good thumbnail sketch of what is out there if you have to travel.  Be safe, all.  

Updating the blog with current info can be as messy as today's weather, so figured it was easier to post a short and sweet new one.  Already some disorganized bands of precipitation have passed through, and my deck is slick...not enough to make my steep driveway an issue, but it won't take much precip to change that as I'm 23 degrees (up from 19 at midnight).  All advisories and warnings are in place til 11p tonight.  Whatever falls will freeze, excepting where there is brine.

There is a lot of moisture in TN and it's heading due east...nothing moving up from the south.. 28 degrees even all the way down to Gainesville, and though Asheville is forecast to reach 33, many places won't get above freezing. Prepare for a day of frozen precipitation and poor road conditions.  I'm assuming the 4-lanes are better prepped and in better condition, but side and backroads will be a big problem and some already are.

Please post any road conditions or info in the comments section here...I have to leave and am trying to figure the best time to do that once I get other things done, so won't be here after lunch (maybe even before) to provide my own observations.

Sun is back out for a calm, cold weekend before warmer temps move in early next week.

Carefull, all y'all....

Bob

Thursday, January 24, 2013

A "Mixed" Blessing...

You would think that ours and the adjoining National Weather Service offices would pretty much be at a consensus on significant storm events...let's just say that they presently "agree to disagree" on our Friday forecast.  We've had a nice day, though I've been at 27 for hours after a sunrise at 32.  Cold and very dry air has nosed in from the NE, and many forecasts keep getting drier and drier for us here in ACA.  That's a good thing.

Instead of changing our watch to a warning, we're now in the lesser category of Winter Weather Advisory, which is another good sign.  Not that we won't have freezing rain, or see a few limited periods of sleet and snow, but any ice accumulations here should be around 0.10"...with maybe up to an inch of snow on ridgetops closer to 4K feet. If it were to even be that much, which is dubious, we could live with that.

Onset looks to be near daybreak, with moisture moving up from the south...no doubt bigger travel concerns in our SW mountains and NE GA, but I have almost no doubt I'll get down the mountain and out Friday noon.  Of course, our ground/roads are largely at freezing state, and it takes little ice to send a car spinning out of control...so normal caution in order as you head out tomorrow.  Always a good idea to check your deck, steps, and vegation by your house to feel for icing, just to be aware.

Best precipitation chances move in late morning into the afternoon, but there really doesn't look to be that much rain (in whatever form) to begin with....SO, all that to say be careful, but I don't forsee big issues for ACA this time around.

After a cold weekend, we do warm nicely next week..."I'll take a dozen, please..."


Bob

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Pesky Weather On The Way

Ugh.  Give me a clean 4" snow anytime, and I'll get wherever I need to go.  But this incoming system isn't about snow; rather, it's about freezing rain, mixed in with some sleet, maybe a tad of snow, and some rain.  We're under a Winter Storm Watch which, as it gets closer to arrival, will be lifted to a warning.  I have an extra vested interest as I was going to hit the highway around noon Friday, and that might be easier said than done.The main attraction comes in overnight Thursday through Friday, and it's slated to be a mess of a wintry mix.

One big factor working against us this time is how cold the ground still is.  Though temps got above freezing for a while today, the ground won't be able to warm up appreciably before a shot of colder air comes before the precipitation Thursday night.  My snow models have little to show right now, 0-1", because this is supposed to be a royal headache for freezing rain and sleet more than anything else.  Should it accrete here, trees and power lines can readily come down.  The forecast is presently ranging from 0.25" to 0.5" ice accretion for some areas in the watch area (Haywood County does happen to be on the edge of the watch zone, so hoping effects here might be a bit more limited).

I need to hit I-40 east Friday around noon...but I'll wait and make that call much closer to that time.  Ice is the great equalizer, and I don't feel like putting my car in a body shop.  I'll update here with another post Thursday...for now, just wanted to mention tomorrow morning's possibility for some wintry 'stuff' in ACA.

Bob

Thursday, January 17, 2013

7:45pm UPDATE: Done Deal, So It Seems...

745pm, about the end of the snow


Looks like any additional accumulations are pretty minor, if not a done deal, as the radars are looking starved....my driveway is white, temperature is 30, and I got 2.75" of snow here at the end of Staymon.  That's a marginal depth for plowing, as I understand it, but we know there is and will be icing,  As far as I know Apple Creek Road will be salted after midnight, which will greatly help our morning traffic here.  Thankful the big stuff moved on...but it was fun to see it move in so strongly. Now to see if I can stay awake for the Lance Armstrong interview...  ;-)

bob

1:30pm UPDATE and PICS

3:40pm - heavy wet snow falling and stacking

I am one wet rat...decided to give the pups their jollies and take them for a ride and nab some pictures around Lake J.  As luck would have it, the heavens opened up the entire time I was out...but the pics do tell a story.

Rain update: storm total as of 1:30p was 9.14"

Temp down to 33 degrees (as I posted the video).

In the most recent runs both the NAM and GFS are set on 3-4" for us...still think something slightly more is possible.  Heavier snow now set more north and into the northern Piedmont.  Linn Damon reported from the board that any needed plowing, and certainly salting will take place just after midnight tonight.  Black Ice loometh, with anticipated lows in the teens.

You can read the genesis of this storm and model flip flops by checking out earlier posts.  I'm glad that the 'Snowmageddon' totals aren't going to pan out. Please...

Click on any picture to enlarge it...just took these an hour ago.  All over the region there is a tremendous amount of water flowing down and across roads, ACA notwithstanding.  These pics are just a sample of what we've been dealing with (869 Apple Creek Road, unoccupied cabin below Jan Woodlief).  Clogged ditches and culverts help to divert sheeting water down the blacktop:




There is a beautiful aspect....intermittent cascading waterfalls that are rather pretty:



Lake J is something to see...I snapped this first shot from my cell phone Wednesday morning, when the park below the dam was most flooded.  The second pic was from this morning:




Nothing like a lakeside bench to meditate from....



Loads of flotsam around the lake, here by the footbridge:


Non-floating docks are seriously inundated, as well:


I'll probably update well after supper just to 'check in'...thanks in advance for everyone's eyes and ears so we can travel as safely as possible on this beautiful mountain.

Bob


8am WEATHER UPDATE

***The National Weather Service, as of 1130am, is backing away from snow amounts in the mountains and upping them in the Piedmont.  For our area, they're going a broad 2-5", mainly above 3500', and less in the valleys.  The later the transition occurs, the less our amounts will be.  I'm leaving the discussion below because I'm never eager to switch ponies at the last minute.  If amounts are on the low side, we benefit in many ways. :-) The 7am NAM that was so heavy for us has come back to this reduced range.  GFS isn't ready yet.   

There is an earlier post from 5am, fyi, if you seek more info.  The latest runs are in and a curious little flop...the 'heavy' NAM that was pushing a foot of snow for ACA pulled back to a 4-8" range...and the conservative GFS which was 5-8" is now 8-12".  One model run does not a truth make, but the GFS overall has been more accurate this year.  Bottom line is we should be in a wintry mess as the afternoon wears on, so I for one will certainly get my errands run this morning and then settle in for the day.


(click on pics to enlarge; asterisk is ACA)

1AM RUN THURSDAY - GFS
1AM RUN THURSDAY - NAM
Accumulating snow will cease by or before midnight, and Friday morning lows should fall into the teens. Many of you know how troubling just 1/2" of snow can be on our roads, and it stands to reason the 5-8" for ACA is not overdone...heaven forbid it's heavier.

Power outages are anticipated...heavy wet snow is effective at bringing down trees and power lines

Sunshine returns Friday, so those that get direct sun will get some melting...temps at night will be at refreeze levels, but hopefully we'll have at least Apple Creek Road in decent enough shape Friday morning at some point.

bob

QUICK UPDATE...A GLANCE

Up early this morning...I'll put a complete update up here around 8am, maybe earlier, but I just wanted to take stock of what the 7p model runs showed, and will await the 1a runs which are usually finished by 7a.

It's 42 at 5am...and temps should slowly drop today.  A few changes are popping up...first is ONSET of wet snow mixing in. Yesterday it was between 12p and 2p, and this morning it pushes back to 3p or 4p.  All along models say precipitation is done by midnight, so it is expected to fall hot and heavy when the transition occurs.

Per the 7p runs: The 'heavy' NAM has increased ACA into the 10-14" range (please, no...) and even the more limited GFS now has us in the 5-8" range.  So far this season, with what minor events we've had, the GFS has handled things more accurately...when the two have not agreed.  We get our heaviest snows when we can sustain a NW flow out of TN, coming right down the I-40 corridor, as opposed to coming out of the west and getting broken up by the Smokies.  The NAM is banking on that situation, by the looks of the graphic.  We shall soon see...ugh.  

The later the transition occurs would be ideal, which would mean less time to build up...but this heavy wet snow coming in will be prone to drop trees and power lines.  The anticipated Friday morning low in the teens will be the literal icing on our wintry cake.

Stay tuned.

Bob

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

WINTER STORM WARNING Thursday

Well, something's coming....we had a lull in the precipitation today, and my total for Round 1 was 7.96".  Another 1.5" to 3" is possible later tonight and Thursday morning, before the fun and excitement begins.  ACA lost power at least twice today, and could again tomorrow, so fyi.

Looks like air cold enough aloft will be in noonish and start mixing in big wet snow flakes with the rain, and fairly quickly transition to all snow for the afternoon and into the evening....heavy, wet snow, that could pull down trees and power lines.  The components of sleet and freezing rain have pulled back best I can tell, but with all the water, the heavy wet snow (done by or before midnight), and a Friday morning low in the upper teens, dangerous driving conditions are quite likely.  With that said, for thinking ahead of the curve for plowing and salting, a Thursday night plowing and salting would be in order for those of you talking that over.

Amounts...ah, the NAM is bugging me this evening...the last two runs have gotten hot and heavy for ACA, with 10-12" in the afternoon run below.  The GFS is holding in the 4-5" category, but either way that stymies travel here.  Click on maps to enlarge...ACA is the black asterisk:
1PM RUN NAM
1PM RUN GFS
I'll update Thursday morning with any changes, thoughts, etc.

Bob

Winter weather returns Thursday

Eeegads, what a system.  As of 7am I've recorded 7.82" of rain...and still falling.

Because this storm system has really changed up it's timing and placement of the front, we're slated for a changeover to heavy wet snow Thursday, probably noonish.  It will mix in with rain first, then sleet and some freezing rain possible through the afternoon.  What now is a Winter Storm Watch will be changed to a Warning later today.

This is going to be a messy situation...heavy wet snow could bring down power lines, trees, etc, and the forecast low Friday morning is slated to be well down in the teens.  Precipitation should be tailing off before midnight, but icy conditions will be trouble.

Too, keep in mind with our ridiculous amounts of rain, the ground water tables have risen and we have any number of seeps that ooze out over Apple Creek Road...those areas could be especially dangerous.

At this time, ACA is falling in the 3-6" range in both models, with up to a foot along the TN border and over to the I-81 corridor. Heavier snow potential will be very close to ACA, represented by the black "*" (click on pics to enlarge).  There is also a nice 10-12" zone showing up from Troy, Albemarle up through Burlington, Durham and into VA...lots of places will be affected by this storm.

1AM WEDNESDAY RUN (NAM)

1AM WEDNESDAY RUN (GFS)
 Sunshine is supposed to be back by Friday and through the weekend...good for melting by day, and refreezing by night.

Bob

Monday, January 14, 2013

Glub, glub, glub....

Starting last night after I went to bed at 10pm, through 4:45pm this afternoon, I tallied 3.12" of rain here at the end of Staymon.  Lots of eroding rivulets on our gravel roads, and plenty of water running over the hardtop thanks to leaf-choked culverts and drainage ditches.

Be that as it may, still have more rain to go here in western NC. Plenty of places have it worse,  THANKFULLY we're not in snow territory as those of us on the mountain would be stuck for quite some time.  A wintry mix is falling in east TN, but that cold air simply won't be here in time to make a furthere mess of travel conditions.

Yes, colder air coming in, but it's STILL above average levels for us, chilly as it may be and feel.  We continue to fall on the Grace side of the fence.

On an aside, Helen Shamek alerted me to an editorial in the Asheville Citizen-Times last Sunday....it's about bears and anticipated spring activity, for starters.  At this time, I can't snoop out the link, but basically bear birth rates are up and harvesting numbers are down...hence more activity anticipated this spring.  If the link reappears, I'll post it for your edification.

Bob

Saturday, January 5, 2013

"Heads Up" for slight icing....

I'm in Charlotte working as I type, and I've hesitated posting anything for ACA....if an event seems fairly minor, I won't post info, but with the official Winter Weather Advisory in place for ACA from 8pm through 10am Sunday, I reckon it won't hurt to reiterate what you may be hearing.

I suppose the biggest disadvantage is that I'm not there to watch my temps, nor are my eyes up at the top as they are out of town as well.  Overnight tonight there may be a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain....amounts are truly minor, but a glaze of ice is enough to make someone slide off the road should it set up shop.

Basically, this is a heads up for any travel in ACA overnight through the AM hours Sunday...if you are driving out, test your driveway, deck, check vegetation for icing, etc....and I do know there are you wonderful few souls who post 'comments' updating what you are having.  It helps us all to communicate, so thanks in advance for your help.

Sunday highs are supposed to be above freezing, ending the threat of slippery issues should they develop.

Bob