Up early this morning...I'll put a complete update up here around 8am, maybe earlier, but I just wanted to take stock of what the 7p model runs showed, and will await the 1a runs which are usually finished by 7a.
It's 42 at 5am...and temps should slowly drop today. A few changes are popping up...first is ONSET of wet snow mixing in. Yesterday it was between 12p and 2p, and this morning it pushes back to 3p or 4p. All along models say precipitation is done by midnight, so it is expected to fall hot and heavy when the transition occurs.
Per the 7p runs: The 'heavy' NAM has increased ACA into the 10-14" range (please, no...) and even the more limited GFS now has us in the 5-8" range. So far this season, with what minor events we've had, the GFS has handled things more accurately...when the two have not agreed. We get our heaviest snows when we can sustain a NW flow out of TN, coming right down the I-40 corridor, as opposed to coming out of the west and getting broken up by the Smokies. The NAM is banking on that situation, by the looks of the graphic. We shall soon see...ugh.
The later the transition occurs would be ideal, which would mean less time to build up...but this heavy wet snow coming in will be prone to drop trees and power lines. The anticipated Friday morning low in the teens will be the literal icing on our wintry cake.
Stay tuned.
Bob
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