8am WEATHER UPDATE

***The National Weather Service, as of 1130am, is backing away from snow amounts in the mountains and upping them in the Piedmont.  For our area, they're going a broad 2-5", mainly above 3500', and less in the valleys.  The later the transition occurs, the less our amounts will be.  I'm leaving the discussion below because I'm never eager to switch ponies at the last minute.  If amounts are on the low side, we benefit in many ways. :-) The 7am NAM that was so heavy for us has come back to this reduced range.  GFS isn't ready yet.   

There is an earlier post from 5am, fyi, if you seek more info.  The latest runs are in and a curious little flop...the 'heavy' NAM that was pushing a foot of snow for ACA pulled back to a 4-8" range...and the conservative GFS which was 5-8" is now 8-12".  One model run does not a truth make, but the GFS overall has been more accurate this year.  Bottom line is we should be in a wintry mess as the afternoon wears on, so I for one will certainly get my errands run this morning and then settle in for the day.

(click on pics to enlarge; asterisk is ACA)

1AM RUN THURSDAY - GFS

1AM RUN THURSDAY - NAM

Accumulating snow will cease by or before midnight, and Friday morning lows should fall into the teens. Many of you know how troubling just 1/2" of snow can be on our roads, and it stands to reason the 5-8" for ACA is not overdone...heaven forbid it's heavier.

Power outages are anticipated...heavy wet snow is effective at bringing down trees and power lines

Sunshine returns Friday, so those that get direct sun will get some melting...temps at night will be at refreeze levels, but hopefully we'll have at least Apple Creek Road in decent enough shape Friday morning at some point.

bob