3pm UPDATE: Apple Creek Road

(Salting update below in RED)

Just my take on the road from this afternoon's ride....

I went out on errands in an AWD car at 1:30 pm and returned by 3pm, driving all the way to the top.

The double hairpins below the mirrored corner were in nasty, black ice shape, with tracks of someone coming perilously close to sliding off.  I had taken along two bags of salt from home and thoroughly salted the two curves, and upon returning they were significantly improved.  The salt is good for 10 degrees, so while refreeze will occur tonight, the brine should keep those curves in passable shape.

Just past Staymon Road, heading up the mountain, Apple Creek Road is basically all lightly snow covered ice, but a very roughly shaped ice.  I drove all the way to the gate and back down and didn't slip once, taking it even and slow as one should in these conditions.  Not much melting going on in many of the higher areas, so refreeze means the same situation for the morning, the roughness helping for grip, but no sheets of smooth ice.

From the hairpins down, just a few little slick spots, but otherwise the road is fine.

Temps should go up nicely tomorrow afternoon.  

Update: By 8pm or so, Apple Creek Road will be salted from Staymon Road on up, with a splash of more salt on the hairpin curves salted earlier this afternoon, as the salter comes back down.

bob

1:20AM UPDATE - SNOW/ROADS

(Updates in RED below)

Still lightly snowing at this hour, with slightly less than an inch outside.  My driveway is white, so I'll assume Apple Creek Road is, as well.  We all have seen how slick even a quarter to half an inch of snow can be, so keep it slow and steady if you're heading out...I'll also assume John Stoeckel would post here if/when salting is scheduled. It will stay bitterly cold and below freezing until Thursday afternoon, so what snow is out there won't be going anywhere for a while.

Haywood County is under a Winter Weather Advisory until 9am for elevations above 3500' (our blue roof house), though the NWS wording is more for the TN border peaks and roads.  1-2" expected there along with increasing areas of black ice forecast.  ACA has been in the ~1" category all along.

7:45am ROAD REPORT from Al Rose:

From the top of ACA down to the mirrored curve is basically an icy base with light snow cover.  The ice has a rough texture, so there is some grip to be had.  From the mirrored curve through the big hairpin curve are some icy spots, but the road starts improving.  From the Damon's (#579) down has some slick spots, but Al said a front-wheel drive should be able to even go up with no problem.  Slow and low (as in gear) and all should be fine.  Just a cold and breezy day ahead, warming up almost immediately tomorrow. 

9:00am update from visitor:

(in front wheel drive Acura)  snow-covered ice through the mirrored curve, then some black ice on the hairpins below; otherwise, lower Apple Creek Road is mainly clear, outside of other smaller icy patches.
 

bob

Today's weather: Dec. 27

Just measured 0.67" of rain as the heavier stuff is now ending.  Plenty of showers still back to the SW to pass through today, and around supper time this evening snow is forecast to start mixing in.  By tomorrow morning there could be a minor amount of snow on the ground, certainly for the upper half of ACA.  

Ground and roads are warm, of course, and not expecting any travel issues here in ACA, even with temps falling below freezing later tonight and staying below through Wednesday.  Just FYI and the usual caution for anyone heading out before light tomorrow as there could be light snow on the road.  

This graphic was sent out by the NWS office in Greer this morning.  ACA is on the edge of the lightest fluff in Haywood.

CLICK TO ENLARGE

bob

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ICING concerns and SALTING

Hit 32 degrees at my house around 520p, and ice is already all over my deck...while some limited snow accumulation is possible, my concern is for black ice and travel tonight through tomorrow morning.  With that said, I have someone new coming in by 9pm to lay down salt on Apple Creek Road, which should protect us through this time period.  Just a heads up for a salting rig if you're out and about then.

Even if some snow falls on the roads, the warm ground temps will help melt it as well as the ice, so not anticipating any plowing needs at this time.

Will update as necessary.

Bob

WEDNESDAY AM snow update

(one updated sentence added in blue)

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect for ACA starting 4pm this afternoon through 7am Thursday.  NWS snowfall guidance is pretty much in line with my two favored models, the 1-3" range, with the higher amounts here above the blue roof house.  Even the GFS model the past two runs has pulled back from a high of 5" to just 2".  Snow will start mixing in with the rain late this afternoon and switch over to all snow later.  I expect our air temperature will hit or be below freezing by 6pm.

The Good News:  ground is warm, and much of the snow will melt from temps and rain, which is why the snow totals are fairly minimal and only at advisory criteria.  Too, once it's cold enough for all snow to fall, there won't be that much moisture left in the system. 

The Bad News:  Ice. Black ice, developing overnight through Thursday morning, and it could be a huge problem here in ACA.  There won't be enough snow on the road to plow, I don't think, so it may need to be salted.  However, I always call ice "the Great Equalizer" as it can stop any vehicle, and it may be a truck couldn't get up to do the salting.  NOTE:  Be VERY careful coming out of your house late tonight/tomorrow morning as driveways, decks, stairs are almost guaranteed to be dangerous.  

The Other Bad News:  Wind, and lots of it.  So far at 8:45am I've recorded 3.47" of rain the past couple of days.  Water is all over our road, and Al Rose reported water covering parts of Mauney Cove Road and rivers running down highway lanes.  The ground is super-saturated and trees could easily come down when the wind fields move in, which raises the specter of not only power outages but blocked roads.

Thursday's weather is a high back into the 40s with sunshine.  One can argue this is a minor system, but we'd all rather deal with snow and not ice.  luckily neither will hang around long this time.

Please be careful.

bob

Incoming SNOW potential

In some sense, this next incoming system already in progress will spare us compared to what it's doing in the central section of the country right now, and what it will do to the Northeast by the end of the week  with a big nor'easter.  Temps are very mild, lots of rain yet to fall later today and tomorrow, but the crashing cold looks to arrive Wednesday after dark with enough leftover moisture for a few inches of snow here in ACA.

Originally the models were keeping ACA in the dusting to maybe 2" up high, with 2x to 3x more just 10-15 miles away toward the TN border.  However, the trend the past 36 hours has been to slightly up snow totals away from the TN border.  For the last system  the NAM showed more snow than the GFS, but this time it's reversed.  Here are this morning's projection:

NAM:  1-3"      GFS: 2-5"

onset (right now) is around 10p Wednesday, tapering off Thursday morning.  Higher total potential only for areas above 3500' elevation (blue roof house).

Good news:  like last time, we've got warm temps, air and ground, so a lot may melt or not stick on the road right away.  From the last system I collected about 1.5" with none ever collecting on my driveway.  Makes sense that if there are road issues developing it would be well before sunrise Thursday morning.

11-29-11 snow in progress on Staymon Road

 Bottom line: not a big system, but the minor wild card will be the low re-forming off the Carolina coast, winding up to be a big nor'easter as it moves up the coast.  IF it were to strongly do so and initially move slowly, that may be where the GFS is seeing the bigger snow for us.  The 'whammy' from this system will be well to our north and the interior of the Northeast, though, so am thankful for the factors we have working against a big issue here in ACA.

Bob