In some sense, this next incoming system already in progress will spare us compared to what it's doing in the central section of the country right now, and what it will do to the Northeast by the end of the week with a big nor'easter. Temps are very mild, lots of rain yet to fall later today and tomorrow, but the crashing cold looks to arrive Wednesday after dark with enough leftover moisture for a few inches of snow here in ACA.
Originally the models were keeping ACA in the dusting to maybe 2" up high, with 2x to 3x more just 10-15 miles away toward the TN border. However, the trend the past 36 hours has been to slightly up snow totals away from the TN border. For the last system the NAM showed more snow than the GFS, but this time it's reversed. Here are this morning's projection:
NAM: 1-3" GFS: 2-5"
onset (right now) is around 10p Wednesday, tapering off Thursday morning. Higher total potential only for areas above 3500' elevation (blue roof house).
Good news: like last time, we've got warm temps, air and ground, so a lot may melt or not stick on the road right away. From the last system I collected about 1.5" with none ever collecting on my driveway. Makes sense that if there are road issues developing it would be well before sunrise Thursday morning.
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| 11-29-11 snow in progress on Staymon Road |
Bottom line: not a big system, but the minor wild card will be the low re-forming off the Carolina coast, winding up to be a big nor'easter as it moves up the coast. IF it were to strongly do so and initially move slowly, that may be where the GFS is seeing the bigger snow for us. The 'whammy' from this system will be well to our north and the interior of the Northeast, though, so am thankful for the factors we have working against a big issue here in ACA.
Bob
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