(one updated sentence added in blue)
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect for ACA starting 4pm this afternoon through 7am Thursday. NWS snowfall guidance is pretty much in line with my two favored models, the 1-3" range, with the higher amounts here above the blue roof house. Even the GFS model the past two runs has pulled back from a high of 5" to just 2". Snow will start mixing in with the rain late this afternoon and switch over to all snow later. I expect our air temperature will hit or be below freezing by 6pm.
The Good News: ground is warm, and much of the snow will melt from temps and rain, which is why the snow totals are fairly minimal and only at advisory criteria. Too, once it's cold enough for all snow to fall, there won't be that much moisture left in the system.
The Bad News: Ice. Black ice, developing overnight through Thursday morning, and it could be a huge problem here in ACA. There won't be enough snow on the road to plow, I don't think, so it may need to be salted. However, I always call ice "the Great Equalizer" as it can stop any vehicle, and it may be a truck couldn't get up to do the salting. NOTE: Be VERY careful coming out of your house late tonight/tomorrow morning as driveways, decks, stairs are almost guaranteed to be dangerous.
The Other Bad News: Wind, and lots of it. So far at 8:45am I've recorded 3.47" of rain the past couple of days. Water is all over our road, and Al Rose reported water covering parts of Mauney Cove Road and rivers running down highway lanes. The ground is super-saturated and trees could easily come down when the wind fields move in, which raises the specter of not only power outages but blocked roads.
Thursday's weather is a high back into the 40s with sunshine. One can argue this is a minor system, but we'd all rather deal with snow and not ice. luckily neither will hang around long this time.
Please be careful.
bob
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