GOOD TO GO....

 Apple Creek Road is good to go. Side roads still have some slush, but from here on out all is good. Rain, and a fair amount of it, roll in New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.  All liquid, no headaches. Celebrate.

Bob

APPLE CREEK ROAD UPDATE

 This just came in from the ACAHOA board:

Just got word that the snow plow operator had a major equipment breakdown. He has worked through the night making repairs and expects to be here before lunch today. Delays like this can be expected as the 1-2" sheet of ice under the snow is extremely hard on equipment. We should have the main road in good shape by this PM with the warmup. 

On a side note, vehicles cannot be parked or left in the road. The plow cannot work around them. Vehicles left at the bottom of the mountain may be parked on the side of Mauney Cove Road.

Bob

SNOW IS FALLING, AND STICKING...

(click to enlarge)

SATURDAY 1:30pm UPDATE:

I picked up close to 4" of snow at the end of Staymon, with a low of 6 degrees at 4am.  The temp has slowly risen since then, but melting has been minimal.  I drove down to Apple Creek Road....it's snow-covered with a solid ice layer underneath it.  Knowing portions of Apple Creek Road go over a 12% grade, there is no worse feeling than losing traction on ice and being at the mercy of gravity.  I chose not to risk heading down.  There will be refreeze tonight, and until the road is plowed and/or treated, travel is very, very risky.  There are lots of things I could use right now, but an insurance claim isn't one of them.  :-/

--------------------------------------------------

And so it begins. It's now 33 degrees and dropping fast and rain has turned to snow.  The bummer is the earlier rain did not evaporate, so this snow should have an icy belly which makes travel all the more dangerous.  My deck is white, and the driveway and cars are white.  It's hunker-down time. 

Here is the what will be going on, per the HOA:

Here is the preliminary plan for the road tomorrow. If the current forecast holds true, we will plow and/or salt the road once the snow stops. We expect that with the road being wet and the bitter cold temperatures forecast that Apple Creek Road will be impassable tomorrow without chains. Our ice melt has limited effectiveness below 28 degrees, so safe travel may not be accomplished until Saturday afternoon. We strongly suggest that anyone who has to travel, take a vehicle to the bottom of the mountain now and walk out tomorrow.

Wise advice.  I don't really have any other update for now...we let Mother Nature do her thing and when we wake up on Christmas Day, what we have is what we have for a good while, given the bitter incoming temps.

Merry Christmas to all y'all!!!!

Bob

SNOW IS A-COMIN'....UPDATE

The above video was the storm 11 years ago that prompted me to start this blog.  Just the day prior I was in Lowe's in shorts, and the cashier said are we going to get the 5-8" of snow predicted, and I said funny thing, my models are going hot and heavy in the 14-17" range.  Lo and behold, this storm dumped 18" here, and I was stranded at the end of Staymon from December 18 until Christmas Eve, when our plower got his machinery fixed. That experience taught me to always have lots of food and drink on hand, just in case.  These poor pups were eating mixed vegetables at the end!

I'm updating the post as snow amounts have changed (upward) some. Those above the blue roof house (3500') are under a Winter Storm Warning from 4p today until 6am Friday, Christmas Day.  Those below there are under a Winter Weather Advisory for the same time period.

Click HERE for Warning and Advisory details.

This morning there's plenty of rain, and one concern is that surfaces don't completely dry before the temperatures start crashing hard this afternoon.  That would make for an icy belly under the snow which would greatly complicate travel.  With these quickly lowering temps comes strong winds and another Wind Advisory (details in the above link).  To say it will be a cold and white Christmas is an understatement.

Per the models, the NAM has ACA in a very tight banding of 3-6" of snow while the GFS is a tad more tame in the 2-4" range. For this young winter, this is our best chance for an accumulating snow, perfectly timed for that proverbial white Christmas (and white birthday for me!).  Be prepared to hunker down and I'll post updates as warranted.

Bob

WIND ADVISORY AND....A WHITE CHRISTMAS?!

From our last light snow that covered our roads, everyone is aware of how dangerous even a light amount causes serious driving issues.  Those issues worsen the more vehicles pack it down to where it's just ice.

You've noticed the plastic tubs with "ACA HOA" on them....those are salt boxes and if you hit a bad area, you can use that salt to help treat it.  NOTE: it's good to have a hammer or something to break up the salt chunks as they can sometimes get hefty.  As well, I keep a bag of salt in my car, along with boots in case I have to walk if stranded.

Weather-wise, today we have a wind advisory from 6p to 12am for potentially damaging winds above 3500' (upper Apple Creek Acres). A strong cold front will be blasting through, so heads up for a potential power outage.

And then....the good stuff!

Our chances are excellent for a white Christmas, with snow starting Christmas Eve afternoon.  At this time, it's too early for any advisories or watches or certainly amounts, but preliminary indications have been running 2-4".  I will update in a couple of days as that time frame approaches.

Bob

Apple Creek Road...and snow?

 This is a very quick update as I am away from the mountain driving Notre Dame to the ACC Championship today. I had a very hard time getting down the mountain yesterday afternoon between the Blue Roof house in the curve that is down below it. I understand from a neighbor that a truck has gone up and down the road with people salting the trouble areas, so I hope that there will be improvement for those heading out or in. If you have any updates, feel free to add them below. I have to hope it's more passable today.

There will be a chance for some very light snow or wintry precipitation early Sunday morning. I don't expect it to impact travel, especially with the salt residue on the road. However, stay tuned for later in the week. It looks like we have a decent chance of getting a little bit of snow Christmas Eve night into Christmas morning for a white Christmas. That's always an exciting potential. Stay tuned.

Bob

SNOW...

ALERT: 8:40am UPDATE: Phoner report - Apple Creek Road is snow covered all the way down.  A very icy patch is below the blue roof house around the turn, and probably other areas.  Use extreme caution if you must go out.

 I always chuckle when we get more snow with no advisory than what we get with an advisory.  I picked up just over half an inch of snow on all surfaces, including the driveway last night, although we were given only a 'special weather statement' early this morning.  It calls for 1-2" possible at elevations over 3500', which is the upper half of Apple Creek, basically.  The snow should taper off before noon.

So, be careful heading out.  It's 21 degrees on the deck, so the snow isn't going anywhere anytime soon.  One more cup of coffee, then it's off to clear the driveway.....wheeee.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

3:30am Wednesday update: 30 degrees and 100% light ice coating on all surfaces, driveway included, here on Staymon Road.  Leaving at 4:30am....will try and update conditions I found when I can once I get to Asheville.

5:20am update: I was a little surprised to find no ice on Apple Creek Road which is only about 125 ft lower in elevation than my driveway which was covered in ice. I had no ice all the way down. No ice on Mauney Cove.  The roads are fine and I had zero issues getting to Asheville. Be careful though... You never know if that can change here in these early hours.

A messy little system moves in overnight with a mixed bag of wintry precipitation. Sleet and snow are more easily dealt with than anything icy, but it looks to be a mixture of all of it. Surface temperatures will be critical given the limited moisture pool. 

 Apple Creek Acres is under a Winter Weather Advisory (click HERE) from midnight tonight until noon Wednesday for up to an inch of the above wintry mix (should be less for us). I have to drive down the mountain between 4-5am, and I'll make a quick comment in the comment section below per conditions I encountered.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Sunrise a few weeks ago (click to enlarge)

Apple Creek Acres is under a Winter Weather Advisory (click HERE) above 3500' (which is the blue roof house).  The Smokies will get another round of heavier snow (less than the 8" in the last event, though), but amounts will be lower for us.  The lower portion of Apple Creek could see 0.5-1"" and the upper portion is in the 1-2" range.  As I type ~4:30am, it's 37 degrees on my deck. Both the GFS and EURO models are forecasting the flakes to start falling this morning, but neither has us in anything above 1" total.  As is usually the case, those of us higher up usually get more than what is down low in a NW flow event.

It has stayed pretty chilly since the last event.  It shouldn't take too long for our roads to start turning white once the snow showers start, which will cool the air column.  Being another NW flow event, the trajectory of the snow bands greatly affects our accumulations.  Should that trajectory be more W than N, the Smokies will cut back our accumulations and hog the snow.  When the flow is truly NW or NNW, we stand to get more snow when it comes straight down the I-40 corridor. Indications are the flow is more W than N at this time.

I'll be returning to the mountain around 2:30pm today and will update if needed.

Bob

BIT OF SNOW...LOTS OF COLD

10-26-20 from the end of Staymon Road (click to enlarge)

Haywood County is under a Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 7am Monday til 12 noon Tuesday for elevations above 3500'. As I type, it's 46 degrees here on Staymon Road, so no issues for a good while here.  To read the full warning, click HERE.  For elevations below 3500', there is a Winter Weather Advisory for lesser amounts.

And so we have an end to our crazy warmth.  Temps Monday afternoon will be plummeting and snowflakes SHOULD be evident before darkfall, especially above 3500' (top half of Apple Creek).

This will be a NW flow event, which is highly dependent on the actual direction of the flow/track as to our amounts.  Every model I've checked has us in the 0.5"-1" range, with 2" possible above 3500'.  Snow will be heaviest along the TN border, with 5-8" likely in places like the Smokies and Max Patch.

Strong winds will accompany this shot of winter, so the possibility of a power outage becomes a greater possibility.  Have provisional lights handy just in case.

We've got a lot of new residents on the mountain, and if you've never driven Apple Creek Road when it's white, you need an abundance of caution.  Even a quarter to a half inch of snow is a real problem....I recently used a clinometer on Apple Creek Road and we have a number of sections with a 10-15% grade.  If ever you have to abandon your car, please make sure it is as out of the way as possible.  If you have to park at the entrance of a side road, please make sure it is as out of the way as possible.

What sticks will stay for 36 hours or so.  Lows tonight could be in the teens, though strong winds might keep it a tad higher.  I don't foresee my high Tuesday getting above the mid 20s.

Bob

ACAHOA MINUTES, ETC.: ANNUAL MEETING 2020

If you'll click on the word "LINK" below, you'll be directed to the minutes and associated reports from our Apple Creek Acres HOA Annual Meeting held last Saturday, 8-8-20. (NOTE:  By-laws will be posted in like manner once they are processed. I'll make another post once they are active, which may be another week or two.)

LINK

Bob

NEW HOA BOARD: SAVE

7-20-20 sunrise from home (click to enlarge)

 I heard through the grapevine that the ACAHOA annual meeting was a good, productive one,  When the official minutes come my way, I will post them.  Too, the complete by-laws of ACAHOA will be scanned and posted so that you may access them at any time.  That link will be posted as soon as I can scan the documents once I receive them.

Here is your new board and complete contact information.  It would be a great idea to bookmark this particular page for future reference, or print a copy:

President: Jeff Hintzman 

jeffhintzman@att.net

Vice President: Keith Patton

keithpatton@att.net

828-456-8895

Vice President: Bob Haynes 

blhogfish@gmail.com

                                            

Treasurer: Tom Bowden 

tdbgator1@gmail.com

954-249-8046

Secretary: Melinda Owens

thephoenixnest1969@gmail.com

423-544-5000

Bob

ANNUAL MEETING INFORMATION

By now, everyone should have received a letter and self-addressed stamped envelop from our HOA about our upcoming annual meeting.  

In light of the myriad COVID-19 issues and avoiding as much as possible crowding in an indoor area, this year's meeting will be held at the broad area where Staymon Road branches off from Apple Creek Road (roughly half-way up the mountain). Those wishing to attend in person should bring a lawn chair; however, unless you wish to bring matters up in person, the board urges the majority to send in the PROVIDED PROXY and use the SASE to mail it in.  Easy-peasey.

What:  ACAHOA Annual Meeting
Date:   August 8, 2020
Time:   10:00am
Where:  Intersection of Apple Creek Road/Staymon Road 

Concerning the proxy, AS SOON AS POSSIBLE do one of the following:

1) Assign it to the Board of Directors and mail it in with the SASE provided in your letter.

2) Assign the proxy to a fellow ACAHO who will be attending in person and mail/give it to them. They may also, on your behalf,  voice any questions or concerns you have for the board.

3) There is one vote for each lot you own in ACA.

On the Agenda (please refer to the letter you received for details)"

1)  Election of Board of Directors

2) Director's Reports

3) Current information on road maintenance/repaving.

4)  Any new business/issues owners wish to bring up at the meeting.



Bob

ACAHOA BOARD: NOMINATING COMMITTEE REQUEST

5-14-2020 Dawn from the end of Staymon Road
(click to enlarge)

Nice to have mostly sunny, dry days, eh?  It's been a gorgeous Monday, for sure.  We have some new residents on the mountain, so for them (and as a reminder for others) we should be having an HOA annual meeting later in August.  At said meeting, we vote on who will be the next ACAHOA board members for 2020-2021.

In advance of that, the board has requested names from anyone interested in serving on the board, in whatever capacity.  For anyone interested, or if you have some questions you'd like answered about serving, please contact either:

          Jeff Hintzman at (828) 400-7921
          Keith Patton at (828) 456-8895



Bob

PAVING...

(click to enlarge)

The Greening of the Mountains. 
View from the end of Staymon Rd. April 26, 2020.

Well, asphalt trucks are on the mountain this afternoon, so this notice is on the late side.  What a gorgeous day, even if it's on the cool side.

Still looking for a skiff of snow overnight Friday into early Saturday morning before it melts...if we get any at all here in ACA.  It may hold only for higher elevations than ours.  Sunday morning will be the potential freeze morning, so plan accordingly if you have tender vegetation that may need covering.


Bob

NEW PAVING UPDATE

Through no fault of ACAHOA's own, our current paving efforts now have been delayed in part due to a recent breakdown at the asphalt plant, and due to weather with our constant periodic rains.  

At this time, our paving in ACA is TBD....I will post just as soon as we get a good look at the next best timing.

Oh, and how about a little snow this weekend???  Friday night into Saturday, ACA will be on the edge of light accumulations, more towards the TN border and the Smokies, and northeastward up through the Roan Highlands.  It's not unheard of, and highs will be well above freezing, but Sunday morning there could be a freeze here on the mountain.  I'll update as the time gets closer.


Bob

PAVING CHANGES: UPDATE

Due to the rains tonight, along with the fact asphalt cannot adhere to any dampness on roads, PAVING ON APPLE CREEK ROAD IS NOW SLATED FOR TUESDAY, MAY 5.  Please take note and plan accordingly.

Well, what a gift to have the power come back on after less than an hour off, when the preliminary estimate was 10:45pm!  I'll take it, but the main line of storms has yet to arrive.  I'll keep the flashlights handy.  :-)



Bob

PAVING UPDATE

This just in from the ACAHOA Board:

We just received word from the paving company that if it is dry they are going to try and pave three separate pieces of road on Apple Creek Road on either Thursday or Friday. Unfortunately, we do not have any more definite information at this time. The three areas to be paved are the main entrance, the area where the culvert was replaced up near 844 Apple Creek Road, and an area between 925 Apple Creek Road and 986 Apple Creek Road. So, this paving will affect everyone who resides in Apple Creek. During the actual paving, it is best to not try and travel on the new asphalt. If Jeff Hintzman gets more detailed information--such as a definitive date and the times--we will be sure and pass it on. We apologize in advance for any inconvenience.



Bob

WILDFLOWERS IN ACA

(Click on pics to enlarge)

Every spring I like to get out and catalog what wildflowers I see around home on Staymon Road.  This is by no means an exhaustive list, just a smattering of some of the more unusual ones at the moment; but if you are out walking or driving, this post may help you identify what you're seeing. Wildflowers come and go as the spring unfolds, but I was pretty happy to see one of these Toadshade Trillium for the first time here, down near Apple Creek Road on 4/20:

Yellow Trillium

We have two species of white trillium in ACA I've seen, the white Wake Robin and the Large-Flowering Trillium (the latter not out quite yet):

White Wake Robin Trillium

In the purple category, we have the rather striking Dwarf Larkspur:

Dwarf Larkspur

An unusual yellow flower looks like it's wilted as it hangs straight down...it's the Large-Flowering Bellwort:

Large-flowering Bellwort

I won't bother posting pictures of all the various violets, as we have several varieties of blue/purple, white, and yellow.  This white flower has the cute moniker of Squirrel Corn:

Squirrel Corn

In the non-descript category, the medicinal Blue Cohosh is in bloom (Black Cohosh is here, too):

Blue Cohosh

In the tree category, the first leaves fully out are Buckeyes, easily identified by their five leaves coming off of one point:

Buckeye leaves

Stay tuned for others to come!

Bob

BEAR CAUGHT ON CAMERA: STAYMON ROAD

Look, bears are a normal up here. Dean Russell captured a young-ish bruin hauling his trash can uphill just last night from Staymon Road, which is my first positive communique this spring about bears.

As a precaution, you may want to bring in your bird feeders at night.  In time, this one will move on. Wildflowers post coming soon!

UPDATE 04-16-2020: From multiple sources I've learned that bear threatened someone at home and that a wildlife or forestry ranger had to kill it. A FED BEAR IS A DEAD BEAR. Saddens me it had to end this way.


Bob

"BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES..."

The Easter Tree, Lake Junaluska (click to enlarge)

Happy Easter Sunday, everybody.  We've got a passel of severe weather heading our way that I want to talk about and share with you.  Before I go into details and timing, the National Weather Service has a nice catch-all .pdf on what's ahead for us in ACA, with good self-explanatory graphics you can walk yourself through.  Click HERE to access it.

After what was a rather 'quiet' March in terms of weather, the first half of April has been more raucous, none more than tonight.  Strong cold fronts have been able to dive through the south from the northwest, and this low heading our way is expansive, with heavy snows to the north and tornadoes down in the south-central states.  I was afraid tonight's storms might take out a lot of the blooms around, so wanted to get some pics before that might happen.

Dogwood, Lake Junaluska (click to enlarge)

My concerns are with wind-related damages, be it power outages, trees down across roads and driveways...several years ago, a top of a tree flew down and totaled my car sitting in the driveway.  No fun, there.  Heavy rains and lightning should also grace us with their presence, which means fur-baby Maisy will be in my face going, "Dad! Dad!  Look! Storms! Dad! Dad!"  Maybe some of you can relate.

Bleeding Heart, Lake Junaluska (click to enlarge)

The strongest of the storms should move through in the 12am-4am window here in ACA, though a few storms and certainly rain will be around well before then.  In western North Carolina, the Storm Prediction Center of the NWS has us in both the yellow "slight" category here as well as the orange "enhanced" category in the southwestern toe.  Don't be fooled by the 'slight' wording...storms may be more hit and miss, but they will certainly be around.

Yet another cold front will pass through mid-week, once again bringing the chance for lows right at 32 degrees Thursday morning.  Luckily, cold temps like that can't hang around long at this time of the year.

Be safe, stay well.  Wildflower post coming in a few days.



Bob

SNOW? YES, BUT...

I wish all of what's going on was just a bad April Fool's joke. We are fortunate to live in such a rural area, but precautions still must be taken to keep issues down to a hopeful minimum.  I see where the path around Lake Junaluska is now herding walkers into going the same direction around the lake, with sheriff's deputies helping to ensure that is happening.  Be safe in running your necessary errands.  I wake up every day and am thankful that we live in such a beautiful area, which is oh so helpful when being mostly home-bound.

If this is your first spring on the mountain, we are hitting the explosion zone. In the next three weeks you will see the leaves explode and wildflowers thicken quicklhy on the forest floor before getting shaded out. It's a glorious time all around.  I'll soon be posting a blog of the wildflowers I find around the house with fresh pictures.

Late March and early April are volatile weather times where wild swings are possible....but they don't last long, thankfully.  It's been a chilly rainy day, with most of us staying in the 40s.  Wrap-around moisture will come in late overnight into the morning hours, with temperatures dropping into the mid and lower 30s.  It should be cold enough for some snow showers to develop, but not cold enough to freeze the roads and cause driving issues.  My models are pushing the ol' 0-1" range for ACA with 2-3" along the TN border.  So, don't be surprised to see the ground get a little white in the morning, and know we'll warm up and get rid of it soon enough. Another wonderful warming trend will soon be taking place.

Stay safe, y'all.


Bob

ROAD CLOSURE: PLEASE READ

Culvert work this Friday

A portion of Apple Creek Road will be closed this FRIDAY from 10:00AM till 2:00PM for culvert replacement (seen in pic). This is just downhill from the "mirror curve", on the flat before dipping down to the upper hairpin curve. Thanks in advance for everyone's cooperation and understanding. (The board)


Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND MORE

730am Saturday UPDATE:  Wind blew away all the snow on my driveway overnight. Roads are fine. :-)

Ah, but we're already feeling that wintry hit in temperatures, light snow, and gusty winds, all part of our next 24 hours.  In this particular case, I'm just not concerned for travel Apple Creek at this time...my favored models have us dusting-1" (NAM) and 1-2" (GFS) (I will need to be driving down around 730am Saturday and can make a quick post on what I encountered).  Bands of snow showers will wheel in from the NW off and on, with better chances later this afternoon.  All should be tailing off Saturday morning.

Click HERE for all the advisories on one page.  Technically, the advisory is for elevations above 3500', for up to 2" for the upper half of ACA. Much lesser amounts will still be possible in the valleys.  Winds will limit accumulations unless they die back, but the wind advisory is in place into Saturday morning, as well.  Hopefully our power stays on.

The good news is that we begin a pretty good warm-up this weekend, especially Sunday.  I'll post any updates later today if necessary.


Bob

SATURDAY 9AM UPDATE

This may clear up soon, but there is quite a mess of government vehicles down near the bottom a Chris Martin's house, which is in a extremely icy area ( I know from experience!). Yesterday it was snowing with temperatures above freezing so that snow melted.  Now that the temperatures are down in the mid and lower twenties down low,  that wet base has turned to ice and is very dangerous.

Please don't try to go out at this moment, and if you have to, please use the most extreme caution possible.

Thanks to Chris Martin for the pics and phone call.


Bob

AND NOW FOR ROUND #2....

6am FRI update: Yet another tweak as the advisory begins at 7am today through noon Saturday. Radar showing snow already along TN border, but movement is west to east...Smokies will shield ACA to some degree. The earlier the better to run any errands...
_________________________

We now have a brand new Winter Weather Advisory that will be in effect from noon Friday until noon Saturday for accumulating snow.

Round number one had those really strong winds which did indeed limit our accumulation, and we'll be under another wind advisory again. Both models that I favor are pushing 2" for Apple Creek Acres and that seems very reasonable. Maybe the winds will keep us on the low side...maybe.

The good news is we warm some and get out of the meat locker by Sunday. Sunshine and a higher sun angle will be our best buds.

As always, I'll update if needed tomorrow as I can, as I'm on the hoof two more days.  Gee, I'm missing all the fun...🤣


Bob

LOTS OF WINTRY WEATHER INCOMING...

6am THURSDAY UPDATE:  There was just under an inch of snow when I left this morning about 5 o'clock, and there was a good icy layer underneath that snow. Apple Creek road is mostly snow covered on the lower section and totally snow covered on the upper section.  I came down the mountain less than 5 miles an hour in 4 wheel drive with traction control on and I didn't slip, but I'm willing to bet it is slippery with any other type of drive train like front wheel drive or 2 wheel drive. Please use a great deal of caution if you must travel. It was 20ﾟ and will be a very cold couple of days ahead. I-40 from mm27-mm30 was in surprisingly bad shape, fyi.
_________________________

Ah, where do I begin?  From our milder temps we crash late today and stay in the meat locker for a couple of days.  Rain changes to snow, accumulating snow, coupled with strong winds that will swing from SW to NW this evening.  I always think 'power outages' possible in this type event, which is a bigger issue when temps are well below freezing. Round #2 of snow showers sets up Friday into Saturday. with more wind and bitter wind chills.  First, the advisory stuff:

Winter Weather Advisory
(above link includes a Wind Chill Advisory, Hazardous Weather Outlook, and a Special Weather Statement)

Specifics for Apple Creek Acres:

SO much winter-weather-weirdness happens at the 3500' elevation and above...conveniently for us, it's the "blue roof house" at Dawen Circle. Much of the accumulation concerns are for the higher elevations and, frankly, closer to the TN border.  Winds will cut back on accumulations, too, so for the upper half of ACA look for 1-2" of snow by daybreak, when any NW flow snow should be ending. Little accumulation is expected at the entrance to ACA (2800').  HOWEVER....

There is a Round #2 that sets up Friday into Saturday, with cold front #2 and more NW flow snow.  At this time, I don't see that being more than an additional inch, with more gusty winds limiting accumulations. Some of those snow showers could make it down into the valleys, but accumulations should be below advisory criteria.  I'll be on the hoof, but will update as needed, so keep checking here.  I'm slated to drive down at 5am tomorrow and will post a quick update by 6am on what I experienced coming down from Staymon.

The cold temperatures will be a shocker; coupled with strong NW winds, wind chills should easily get to single digits as lows dip to 20 degrees, lower higher up.  Should power go out, have plenty of firewood or light up the LP fireplace and candles readied.

As always, I cross my fingers the accumulations stay limited thanks to the winds, and that the tree work that has been done in ACA will limit outages (unless something out of our HOA goes down). Get ready to bundle up, and as always I'll update as necessary later today IF I see significant changes to pass along.

Wheeeeeee.


Bob

NO TRAVEL ISSUES, BUT....

Yay for the warmer temps...and incoming rain tonight will help wash some snow away.

However, even if lows tonight hang at or just above 32 degrees, wet snow is likely in the pre-dawn hours. Little or no accumulation is expected, and given the somewhat warmed ground, roads should be fine. Soon enough Monday it goes to all rain.

An even more limited chance for snow is slated for overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. No issues are expected, though we'll have a handful of cold days into the weekend after that cold front passage.


Bob

SNOW AND ROAD UPDATE

This particular system is pushing the high end of the forecast snows around ACA. I'm not on the mountain but already close to 4" has fallen up at the end of Staymon, I understand. Probably will be around 5" by the time it tails off.

 Temperatures will be dropping tonight, probably down into the upper teens. Surely there will be some icy bases to this snow with all of our rain, so please use caution on your stairs, decks, and driveways.

I just received word from the board that the plow and salting truck will be here in the morning to take care of our roads. Give some extra time for the salt to do its work before venturing out, if possible.


Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACA

I've hesitated posting a weather update as I have been waiting and waiting and waiting for GSP to post us into a Winter Weather Advisory. All the models point to a few inches of snow for us tomorrow, but GSP continued to hold us in Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) until just now.

What: Winter Weather Advisory
When: 5am Thursday til midnight
Amounts: 1-2" in valleys; 3-5" ridgetops (that can be read lower ACA and upper ACA)
Onset: Near dawn in ACA. Earlier west, later east.

 The next 2 days will be chilly ones, with lows at or below 32ﾟ and highs barely above 32ﾟ unless you happen to pick up a lot of sun (which there won't be much of on Thursday but there will be on Friday). 

Given our warmer temperatures we have had, our initial snow on roads will melt, then become slush, and could become icy, complicating travel throughout the day Thursday into Friday morning.

I have to leave around 645am Thursday and will post any changes before then, should there be any. Please add your road reports, etc., into the comments below, and I'll update on the hoof Thursday afternoon.


Bob

SNOWY THURSDAY LIKELY

This will serve as a preliminary post to a more full post I'll post tomorrow...just wanted to use the word 'post' three times in one sentence (make that four).

This is another system coming in from the southwest that will overrun cold air moving in from an area of high pressure that will be sitting in the northern Plains states. Nice little combo for this event.

The GFS has been steady at 2-3" for ACA, even down in the valleys.  4" possible above 4000'.  The NAM is just now 'seeing' the system and it's hot and heavy in the 4-6" range, but the GFS is getting the nod from professionals...at least for now.

Onset looks to be after daybreak Thursday, and it should be a done deal by Friday daybreak.

Stay tuned for tomorrow's post.


Bob

ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW TODAY...

UPDATE @ 1215PM: Pic says it all about my getting back to home at noon. Below blue roof is some bare road patches, but above there roads are snow covered and slippery. I have 4wd with traction control and new tires, and I had trouble getting home. Please use extreme caution if you must travel at this time.
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ACA is under another  Winter Weather Advisory today from 6:00 a.m. until midnight. Unlike every other system we have had so far this winter, this one is coming at us from the Southwest. The heavier snowfall will fall a couple of counties to our west along the southern edge of the Blue Ridge escarpment. We still are in position to pick up another 1 to 2" of snow with the higher ridge tops above 4000' maybe picking up 3 or 4".

 The ground has been cold enough long enough (21 at home as I type) that snow will stick and make the roads slippery once it starts to accumulate. Too, there were lot of wet places from all the excessive rainfall that may be icy today as well. Temperatures are not supposed to go much above freezing and probably not even to 30ﾟ at my house, so what precipitation we get will be in the form of snow.

 I will post any updates and notes about road conditions as I get them.


Bob

VOLATILE WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS

Rainbow from the end of Staymon 2/4/20

I went out a little while ago and emptied 5.25" of rain out of the rain gauge. We're having way too much of a good thing with flooding an issue in many locations. Haywood County schools is letting out today at 12:30 due to rising waters,  and tornado warnings have been popping left and right along the I-85 corridor in South Carolina.

There will also be embedded thunderstorms and wind gusts, which could easily bring down trees in our super-saturated soils. Add to all of this switch over to snow tomorrow morning around daybreak and we'll have a mess on our hands. All of my models are pumping 1 to 2" for ACA, though most of that will be in the upper half of our mountain.

The ground temperatures will be warm enough to more than likely preclude any problems on the roads, but snow looks like it will be falling tomorrow morning.  In order to get that cold air in here, the winds are going to have to blow strongly. I would be prepared for a potential power outage as a distinct possibility.

I'll update later today as needed.


Bob

LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT (?)

The going forecast is one where models do not agree, the reason reason being temperatures may be too warm for the NAM to verify (inches of snow). The GFS, Euro, et al. are in the 0-1" range through Saturday. 

There will be chances for showers to turn to snow showers any time the temperature is cold enough, which is usually going to be overnight and into the early morning hours, Friday into Saturday. Even then, it's mainly for 4000' and above.

I'll post any updates and tweaks as I deem necessary.  Just a good ol' heads up, just in case.


Bob

MORNING ROAD UPDATE

Good morning! While Haywood County schools and some others are closed or on delays, this is due to coatings of ice/freezing fog in this region on lots of surfaces including roads.

I'm happy to report that from Staymon Rd  on down Apple Creek has no issues whatsoever this morning (no info available above Staymon).  However, you will find some icy patches on your out and about travels around the region. Just a heads up.


Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (yawn...)

As I write at 5am, temperatures are simply too warm for the anticipated snowfall this morning.  Rain is moving in from the west/ southwest and will continue to do so off and  on through today. Temperatures may get cold enough tonight to switch back over to some light snow shower activity. At this time I anticipate no problems for ACA.

 That said, we are under a Winter weather advisory until 7 o'clock Tuesday morning for elevations above 3500'. Per the advisory, that would amount to 2-3" of snow for the upper half of our mountain.  I dont see this happening.

 I'll be posting any changes should I see any later today.


Bob

SNOW POTENTIAL THIS WEEK

First we have in our face the potential for a dusting to 1" on our mountain, overnight tonight, which the higher amounts are higher up.

We got way more snow than the prior system that put down 2.5" here at the end of Staymon Rd . NWS says any totals are below advisory criteria, so we'll see. My models say 0-1", though the NAM paints us 1-2".

I'll update early in the AM. Really early.

NW flow events are wildcards.  They can be skunks as easily as big 'uns, so all bets are mellowed. I sense my waking up at 3am may find some issues, so I'll post any observations I have in the comments.

Another shot maybe early Wednesday, and another shot over the weekend, which is a wild shot at the moment. Stay tuned...


Bob

THANK YOU, HOA!

From when I drove up Tuesday morning at 530am, on snow covered roads, fishtailing at the expected curves....to getting out mid-afternoon...Apple Creek Road was gotten in surprisingly good shape. I'm pretty sure it was a combination of a vigilant board combined with a new salter/power that made for a doggone quick improvements on a bone-chilling day. Thanks to all involved for your efforts!

Nice thing, too, is the residual salt on the road. Thursday night into Friday morning may be more wintry weather (mostly freezing rain?), and those dregs should prove useful. Light snow accumulations are possible late Saturday into Sunday.  More on that later.


Bob

WE'VE GOT A SERIOUS MESS HERE...

I just rolled up to the house at 5:30 this morning and it's a miracle I even got up to the house at all. The roads are totally snow covered down around Lake Junaluska, Russ Avenue and out towards Maggie Valley and certainly Mauney Cove Road as well. And it only started that way once I exited off the four-lane to head down to Bojangles.

I've got 2" here at the house at the end of Staymon and the snow is still coming down. The roads are very slippery, and until the snow ends and it warms up some, there is little that can be done except to wait it out. It's 11ﾟ right now, so it's not going anywhere anytime soon.

 That it really snowed at all was surprise enough to forecasters, as even my models didn't show it except 0 to 1" up in the Smokies.  That the snow has continued unabated and amounted to this much as even more of a head scratcher. This particular event has been snow showers moving in from due North, which is not the usual direction. We will always get accumulating snow if it comes directly from the North like this but it is almost impossible to see it on the radar.

Too, I'm flummoxed with the lack of any advisory or viable Hazardous Weather Outlook from GSP. The 230a HWO for western NC said "no hazardous weather expected today". Not pleased....

I wouldn't advise travel unless you must do so, and hopefully you have 4WD and good tires. It really is a mess out there, even down low.


Bob

TODAY'S DUSTING...YEAH, RIGHT

Looks like we're getting a fruitcake snow..
You know, the gift that keeps on giving. I'll be heading home about 5am, and at least at the end of Staymon the "dusting" is now a fuzzy inch or so.

Which is the top end of wording from the NWS, an inch. The snow clouds are well under the radar beam, so there is nothing to really "see".

I'll post a road update once I get home early tomorrow. Stay tuned...


Bob

ODDS AND ENDS

From our unusual long run of mild weather, temperatures will now start to lower and bottom out early next week. Yet for all of our rainy days of late, this cold snap will not have bona fide chances for snow accumulation associated with it.  Friday night into Saturday morning will see some periods of rain-snow, then snow, then back to rain, but accumulations should be nil overall for ACA.  There will be another limited period of rain-snow late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

For those that travel the upper part of Apple Creek Acres, you've noticed the giant mirror is missing from what we call the 'mirrored curve'.  In the last wind event, the post it was on had rotted enough to give way and break.  The mirror itself is fine, but the mounting hardware has greatly rusted, and is currently being bathed in Liquid Wrench to see if it can be unfrozen; if it can, then it will be mounted on a new treated post soon.  If it can't be salvaged, I suppose Plan B would be next...but I have no idea right now what Plan B would be.  :-)

All that to say please continue to use increased caution and GO SLOWLY through that tight, blind spot, and be as courteous as possible if you meet traffic.  

Also, ACAHOA dues were due January 15, FYI. Everyone should have received those notices by now.

Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY: UPDATE

What WON'T be happening...

First, here are the technicalities: Apple Creek Acres is under a Winter Weather Advisory (click link for details) from noon today until 7:00 a.m. Sunday. Temperatures won't be cold enough for snow here until late in the afternoon, early evening, and the winds will also be picking up as the temperatures crash.  Power outages are certainly within the realm of possibility if the winds get as high as the forecasts show.

 In so far is amounts, this is where 2 paths diverge in the woods, just like we've seen with every other system so far this Winter. The national weather service is calling for one to possibly 2" and some mountain valleys, with anywhere from 2 to 4" along the higher ridge tops along and near the Tennessee border. The graphic for Waynesville simply shows less than 1" even on the high end amount so I'd imagine even where we are that it'll be another one of those heavy dustings to light coatings down low. I'll stick with up to 1.5" above the blue roof house, although if the winds stay feisty then it will be hard to accumulate that much. And, add to that…

My two favored models have now had two consecutive runs that put us into our 0 - 1" category, and they're no longer showing the heavier snow along the TN border close to us. That speaks to a very limited moisture field tonight. Highs will be well above freezing Sunday...cold, yes, but not long-lasting.

I will be driving in after 1am and will post road conditions in the comments section below. Once again, this has all the makings of a minor winter event, but even 0.25" of snow on the road can be dangerously slippery.  In some respects, I'd rather drive up in 1-2" of snow...time will tell!


Bob

LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING

Dawn 12-26-19

Our chance for snow Saturday evening is very much like what we experienced the other 2 times so far this winter: maybe up to 1/2 of an inch below 3500' and 1" to possibly 2" high up above the blue roof house.

 From our very mild temperatures even to start the day tomorrow, temperatures will be crashing as the afternoon progresses.  At the same time, moisture will be rotating in from the northwest, creating a chance for 2 to 3" of snow close to the Tennessee border by Sunday morning.

 My favored models have had us steadily in 1-2" with 3" very close by. However, the national weather service is a little bit stingier than that, and given how our past events have panned out, I would tend to think this one will be much like those.

 At this time, there are no winter weather advisories posted. If I see changes worth passing on, I'll repost by noon(ish) Saturday.


Bob