Before I get going on the yucky Wednesday coming up, I will be making soon a big post on the situation with the washing out roadside just below the upper hairpin curve, which took a good hit with our recent heavy rains. It's a sticky wicket to say the least.
From 6am Wednesday through noon on Thursday, ACA is in a Winter Weather Advisory which you can read HERE. The Cliff Notes version therein is 1-3" of mostly snow with periods of sleet and freezing rain mixing in.
In poring over the various models, this isn't about the totals but the iciness that potentially will mix in. Ice is the great equalizer, but the NWS is forecasting only light glazing. I simply don't see any models nearing the 3" mark for ACA except the RDPS (if you must know the acronym, it's 'Regional Deterministic Prediction System'. You're welcome.)
This is all about timing and temperature. The high-end forecast is for ACA is 3-6", which as of 4am Accuweather was predicting a 49% chance for, and 47% for 1-3". Just a tiny tip one way or the other per temps and precip will have a big impact on totals.
Overall, this is a big event for Virginia, so areas closer to the VA border will have more accumulation. Even Charlotte will be getting a bit of snow, but there will be a warm nose that will try and work it's way in the SW Blue Ridge, which is a snow killer.
At this moment, the advisory seems to be spot on. Wording and forecasts will hone in throughout the day, and I'll update once I get home from work this evening.
Bob
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