WINTER STORM WARNING

(click to enarge any picture)

Here we go...and the first one of this season is a pretty good 'un.  I'll jump right into my normal terms and usage, so if you find it confusing you can search back in the archives and find my posting on a "snow primer" to find out more.

Amounts: I'd been holding off a bit as the two models pretty much had ACA in the 2-3" range for days, but first  the NAM started taking off a hotter and heavier. The GFS has now followed suit.  4-5" for ACA now seems more likely the LOW side of our potential, with 6-8" not out of the question (!!!).  Heavy wet snow can accumulate very quickly. As is usually the case, amounts will be higher toward the top of ACA, lower toward the bottom.

The National Weather Service Winter Storm Warning for ACA runs from 8p TONIGHT through 8pm SATURDAY. 4-6" is expected, and for NW facing slopes on the TN border (not us, of course) up to 10".  Early and late season snow storms can come in with a more moist air source, making for pretty good totals.

Temps: Temperatures will fall below 32 before midnight, and may not get back to that mark until Sunday afternoon.  Yes, the ground will have been warm, so some initial melting will take place, but it's safe to assume our roads will be rather snow covered by the time we wake up Saturday.

Timing: The best looking time periods for accumulation (not just any, but the 'likely' category) is from 3-7am and then again from late morning through early afternoon.  I don't expect the snowfall to be steady all day, rather more snow showery as the afternoon wears on.

Wind: Winds will pick up overnight and be steady in the 20-25mph range most of Saturday, with gusts to 40mph.  With the snow expected to be on the heavy wet side, accumulations could come rapidly in spurts. I've posted storm total graphics that are from the 8p model runs Thursday evening. If there are significant changes, I'll post them at the top here later this afternoon.

Yippee.

8PM Thursday GFS (* is ACA)

8PM Thursday NAM

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Scenes like these will look a bit different with their upcoming white blanket.  I couldn't resist stopping by Chris and Helen's a few days ago to get a few different angles of a flaming maple.  Enjoy!

Bob