First, if you didn't read the prior post, our HOA president Keith Patton has asked those that have not yet paid their 2015 dues to please do so. :-)
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Weather-wise, what's coming up is a 2-part chance for wintry precipitation. Early on, the first part appeared too warm for such, with the second part having much better chances. As I look over the model runs (they come down x4 per day), the trend has been holding for more wintry precipitation in the first wave. Current 'thinking' by all involved is this:
TIMING #1: Before daybreak Friday, rain/freezing rain/snow could be falling. Forecast high is a little above freezing, so rain/freezing rain a concern through Friday into early Saturday morning. That's not a snow-accumulation issue, but any amount of ice is a huge problem up here. The really cold air simply won't be here to cause a significant problem...so it looks. First to show ice will be vegetation/branches/etc.
TIMING #2: Sunday night through late Monday night, we'll have colder air in place with a protracted NW flow that will be bringing snow, and this 'hit' is where accumulations of snow have their best chance. Being a NW flow event, snow showers come and go, maybe with some peeks of sun, but a good band can drop an inch of snow, and we could have several. Precipitation chances remain roughly 50% for this part.
AMOUNTS: Even 0.05" of ice on roads is trouble, so we'll have to watch to see IF any road issues develop starting Friday early AM. We're heading into this with road and ground temps well above freezing, which will help. My snow models have the GFS running 1-3" snow and the NAM now 2-4" of snow...this snow part should primarily fall (if not all of it) in the second wave coming in, so plenty of time to watch the trends and see where we're heading.
I am guessing I'll post an update to this Thursday evening if I see changes worth mentioning.
Bob
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