"WHAT THE WHAT???....

Guess I've been watching too much "Modern Family" and Phil Dunphy lately.  Posting this today instead of tomorrow because you'd think it's an April Fools joke.  Oh, you can see the steady greening of our mountain already, and it's glorious.  Noticed Bloodroot is out and surely some others, and the first few weeks of April foliage explodes.  We've had some wonderfully mild days, as well, adding to spring fever.
  
Alas, early April snows happen here every 2 or 3 years.  Yep, that's where this is going...possibly.

APRIL 8 8am GFS run

I know it's just a model, and models in transition times of the year like this can be very fickle and fleeting.  But find NC, period, much less the mountains, and what the above run for early Friday April 8 is some serious cold and snow almost to the Outer Banks.

It may not happen.  It may start disappearing in each model run.  Just wanted to take the opportunity to wish everyone well, and for the newcomers on the mountain get ready to watch a profusion of wildflowers unfold in the next few weeks.

Oh, and to not put away the winter gear just yet...

Bob  :-)

MONDAY MORNING UPDATE

Got close to 1.5" of snow, with a low so far of 24 degrees here at the end of Staymon.  Looks like with the cold and dry air, helped by breezy conditions, the moisture sublimated on my driveway, which is to say anything frozen skipped over the liquid phase and went straight to a gas. It was dry and not slippery.

That's not to say there aren't icy patches on Apple Creek Road, though.  Heading down in a half hour, and if I find something news worthy I'll post it later.  Otherwise....Happy Monday! (Oxymoron, yes...)


Bob

WEATHER UPDATE

Saturday afternoon, the sun came out and made a beautiful double rainbow here.  Shots are from my home @ 4:45pm (click to enlarge).

Been off the mountain a while, and just got back.  Already close to 1/3" here, and of course the snow cover started in earnest at 3500'.  :-)   Temperature has dropped to 33 degrees, with a forecast low in the 20s.  Black ice will be a concern, along with accumulating snow.

Maybe my trusty GFS model pushing for 2-4" will verify.  The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for ACA for elevations above 2500' (instead of the usual 3500'), calling for 1-3" of snow.  The advisory runs until 10am Monday.

Slippery roads will be developing before too long, and tomorrow morning should be a mess here. Because I'm involved with the school system, a delay is certainly possible,  If it appears buses can't safely run by 9am, it will be a no-day for all. The up-side is radar echoes at 9pm show a quickly-diminishing precipitation field.  Black ice will be the biggest concern.

Be careful y'all.  I'll update as needed later.



Bob

WACKY WEEKEND WEATHER

4:45pm Rainbow from End of Staymon, 3-19-16
(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

Well, 'tis the weekend, and rain is SUPPOSEDLY incoming...been an okay day heretofore, minus a few showery episodes.  Colder air IS here for tomorrow and Monday, and while early Sunday morning snow may mix with rain, my ONLY concern for travel troubles is pre-dawn Monday morning.  Only then do temperatures drop below freezing at or before midnight, with the chance of wrap-around flurries continuing to near dawn.  All it will take is a 1/4" of fluff on the road to make for slippery road concerns.  I'll update here if there are any developments I see from now through lunch Sunday.

NAM is 1-2", and the 'more accurate' GFS is 2-3".  We're so warm that rain mixing in will greatly limit accumulations.  Won't be surprised to see white on ground/clean roads tomorrow morning, but early Monday it's a wild-card to see what amount of snow is leftover once temps goes below 32 degrees.  A dusting to 1.25" is my best guess for ACA, low to high in elevation.

Bob

70's AND SNOW?

No doubt we've all relished the wonderful warm weather of late...and even with showers and possibly thunderstorms passing through into early next week, temps still stay mild.  By midweek, some may see 70s again...however....

March Madness isn't just about basketball...the weather can be as fickle and transient as it gets.  I was looking back in past photo files and have files of several early April snows from the end of Staymon, so it's not unusual to get late season snows.

With that said, heads up for Saturday-Sunday March 19th-20th...been looking at this a few days, and this season's most accurate model (GFS) has a big shot of Canadian air coming in quickly behind a strong cold front that should pass through Saturday afternoon.  At least on the maps, the precipitation goes over to snow in ACA late Saturday through the first half of Sunday.

These 'far out' looks can't be fully trusted, but it seems to me that even if the snow is minimal (or at all), we get the cold.  Grass seed should be okay, but young tender plants need to be kept indoors for a few more weeks.  The good news is should it be a winter event, we go into it with warm road and ground temperatures.  Too, any storms this late in the season, they rarely hang around long.

Until then, enjoy the 'lamb' March has been so far.


Bob

SNOW UPDATE

CRABTREE BALD 3-2-16 (click to enlarge)

'Twas a chilly day today, cold enough above 4,000' for snow and heavy frost when the clouds hung on the peaks earlier. Took the above photo from home this afternoon around 5pm. We're awaiting an incoming system that has more exceptions than rules when it comes to accumulations, so it seems.

Light snow could fall around daybreak Thursday, but that won't be an issue and may not even happen.  Sometime in the late part of the day, precipitation will be a rain-snow mix with temps just above freezing. The higher the elevation, the more snow there is overnight, and the lower the elevation the more rain there is, making accumulations hard to come by in the valleys.  The precipitation should hang around most of the night before clearing early Friday.

Both GFS and NAM models have been on the 2"-4" bandwagon all along, with the NAM having hot flashes up to 6-8" on a couple of odd runs.  This season, the GFS has proven to be the most accurate, and it has held in the 2"-3" range.  I feel something in the 1"-2" range is what I expect to see here at the end of Staymon, given the rain that may restrict higher amounts.

Whatever falls, nature will take care of it soon enough on Friday, as temps start to warm well above freezing.  Slushy snow is extremely slippery, so should it coat Apple Creek Road, be wary of that.

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Revisiting the prior post per bears, I was asked to remind everyone that under no circumstances should anyone on purpose be putting out any food sources for them. Wildlife officials will tell you "a fed bear is a dead bear."  Rest assured they'll find a bird feeder here and there on the mountain, but once you've been raided you'll see to it it doesn't happen again.  Let 'em go their own way and find their own food naturally.

Bob