SNOW UPDATE

CRABTREE BALD 3-2-16 (click to enlarge)

'Twas a chilly day today, cold enough above 4,000' for snow and heavy frost when the clouds hung on the peaks earlier. Took the above photo from home this afternoon around 5pm. We're awaiting an incoming system that has more exceptions than rules when it comes to accumulations, so it seems.

Light snow could fall around daybreak Thursday, but that won't be an issue and may not even happen.  Sometime in the late part of the day, precipitation will be a rain-snow mix with temps just above freezing. The higher the elevation, the more snow there is overnight, and the lower the elevation the more rain there is, making accumulations hard to come by in the valleys.  The precipitation should hang around most of the night before clearing early Friday.

Both GFS and NAM models have been on the 2"-4" bandwagon all along, with the NAM having hot flashes up to 6-8" on a couple of odd runs.  This season, the GFS has proven to be the most accurate, and it has held in the 2"-3" range.  I feel something in the 1"-2" range is what I expect to see here at the end of Staymon, given the rain that may restrict higher amounts.

Whatever falls, nature will take care of it soon enough on Friday, as temps start to warm well above freezing.  Slushy snow is extremely slippery, so should it coat Apple Creek Road, be wary of that.

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Revisiting the prior post per bears, I was asked to remind everyone that under no circumstances should anyone on purpose be putting out any food sources for them. Wildlife officials will tell you "a fed bear is a dead bear."  Rest assured they'll find a bird feeder here and there on the mountain, but once you've been raided you'll see to it it doesn't happen again.  Let 'em go their own way and find their own food naturally.

Bob