MAYDAY, MAYDAY!!!! DANGEROUS ICE

UPDATE:  Been talking with Chris Martin and APPLE CREEK ROAD IS IMPASSABLE AT THIS TIME.  DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE IT!

An ultra fine mist has continued to fall this afternoon and evening, and I'm now at 19 degrees (5pm).  My driveway has a deceptive coating of ice, and the NWS office at GSP has put us in a Winter Weather Advisory until 10pm for freezing drizzle, basically.  The odd thing is our low may hit single digits, so what ice has formed will not go anywhere anytime soon.  Apple Creek Road is exceedingly dangerous and will be for some time.  

In checking with the GSP chatroom, there have been numerous accidents in Buncombe, Henderson, and McDowell Counties due to the icing. I-40 West at Old Fort has been shut down over the pass.  It takes very little ice to make a royal mess of things, and we have a VERY royal mess.  I don't expect to see 32 degrees at the end of Staymon until MAYBE Wednesday (very iffy)...beyond that, 32 won't get here until Sunday.

I'll holler with any other information as I get it.

Bob

BITTER COLD ARRIVING

Meme I wrote with Maisy from the earlier snow  :-)

Woke up to a heavy dusting of very fine powdery snow this morning... that's what a 20% chance of snow will do fer ya.  Temp holding around 21 degrees this morning...there is no icy belly to the coating, so not anticipating trouble getting down my driveway shortly.

My 'heads up' is for the newer residents here that may have never checked their well heads (for most it's under a large plastic 'rock' cover).  With single digit lows ahead (even giving 0 a run for the money), you want to make sure there is adequate insulation around those pipes.  Lowes sells a small roll of fiberglass batting that is perfect for the job, but even towels wrapped around it will help.

One interesting thing when temps get that low is that you'll hear what sounds like .22 rifle shots as the deck and trees contract.  This cold snap will last through Friday, at the very least, so batten down the hatches.  As for me, that also means dripping the kitchen faucet...


Bob

NWS SNOW MAPS OF OUR SNOW

The National Weather Service office at GSP has put together a map of the regional snow totals that some of you might find of interest. On the page, click on the graphics to enlarge them.

Click HERE.

Some roads on the mountain are left with serious ice issues still; ice melts far more slowly than snow, and it's not going to improve all that quickly.  Milder temps are on their way in in a few days, and some rain Sunday will help, as well.


Bob

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

After a warm afternoon, relatively speaking, here comes more cold.  ACA is under a Winter Weather Advisory from 4am Tuesday until 7am Wednesday.  A strong NW flow clipper will be moving in, with increased winds, dropping temperatures, and the chance for light snow.  The Advisory calls for up to 2" of snow, but I believe most of that will stay closer to the TN border.

In fact, my models are still going 0-1", with the 2-3" range relegated to the Max Patch to Roan Mountain complex, well away from ACA.  If I wake up to snow and a dusting already by 6am, that won't bode well for schools, etc.

Apple Creek Road had improved this afternoon, though there are still plenty of snow/slush/ice patches higher up.  The incoming cold will halt a lot of our melting for a few days, though the weekend ahead looks milder and promising.

If you didn't see the prior post, the minutes to the ACA HOA meeting in August have been posted.  Be sure to read them if you haven't done so already.


Bob

ACA HOA ANNUAL MTG NOTES

(Here are the minutes from the August HOA meeting as 

prepared and presented by the board)

__________________________

ANNUAL BOARD MEETING 

Annual Meeting Minutes 

Apple Creek Acres Homeowners Association 

Date of Meeting: Saturday, August 26, 2017 

At 10:30 am, August 26, a quorum of 65 votes was reached. The meeting was called to order by President Owen Fulghum. He agreed to preside, and appointed Doyle Love as Parliamentarian. 

The minutes from the 2016 Annual Meeting were read. There were no additions or corrections. A motion was made by John Saunders to accept the minutes as presented. The minutes passed. 

President's Report: Owen Fulgham reported on the improvement of the roads. Challenge of covenants was discussed. Owen has been in touch with the county to insist that permits are being addressed. Rocks are under the guidance of the county for erosion control. Greatest challenge within the association is keeping up to date with homeowner details. Communication should be improved between board and homeowners in order to improve homeowner / lot database. 

Treasurer's Report: Tom Batchelor presented the Expense and Revenue Report (see attachment). He mentioned that as of August 1, we had a balance of $23,816.51. Delinquents were discussed. There are 16 properties that have not paid their dues. $500 is still due to us from a foreclosure. Approximately 5 properties will be brought to the attention of the lawyers and liens will be filed. 

Roads Committee: Keith Patton presented for Jeff Hintzman on the road work done in ACA. We are on the list with the paving company. In the next two weeks, they will be in touch with Jeff H about the road closure and paving. They will start at the top and work their way down. The road will be closed. It was stressed that residents need to plan around the road work and do not drive around the paving crews/areas. We appreciate everyone’s assistance in advance. There were 2 culverts replaced, but there was a failure, and one had to be fixed. The culverts that are currently in place will need to be replaced every year because they are old and failing. It was recommended that we put off the culverts on the paved roads until the roads are replaced, so everything can be done at the same time. Fixing the roads should be a priority. 

Nominating Committee: Cheryl Folghum presented the 5 nominees for the new board. A motion was made that the board be kept at 5 members, and the motion was carried. The five HOA members nominated were Tom Batchelor (President), Jeff Hintzman (Vice President of Roads), Fay Grant (Secretary), John Saunders (Vice President), and Lynn Strause (Treasurer). Owen Fulghum asked if there were any nominations from the floor; being that none were made, a motion was made to accept the nominations by acclamation. It was seconded and passed. 

Old Business: There was none presented. 

New Business: Problems with people speeding on the mountain was addressed. It was mentioned on the blog that there is a blue truck driving too fast on a regular basis. Many attendees agreed that the blue truck is a problem and to find out who the driver is. UPS and FedEx drivers were also discussed. 

It was also addressed if escrowed money at the end of the year will be used for the culverts; but will be saved for potential snow storms and plowing. 

Trees need to be trimmed to help with roads and ice prevention. Maintaining the road has to be our primary focus. You can join Next Door or check the Apple Creek Acres blog to keep updated on the community. Note to new board to attach new meeting minutes to dues notice to encourage participation. 

New homeowners introduced themselves. It was asked for attendees to take a look at the current list of homeowners and make changes, if needed. Keith Patton and Jeff Hintzman were thanked for all of their hard work and mountain wisdom. 

At 11:09 am, a motion was made to adjourn, and was seconded and passed.

MONDAY: ISSUES

We had a bit of an inversion last night as temps held around and above 31 degrees while it was in the lower 20s down low. It helped a bit...but in driving out this morning, Apple Creek Road, while plowed yesterday, is still mostly snow/slush/ice covered.  I didn't have any trouble going down in 4WD snow hill-holder mode, slowly.  Once you round the bend below the blue roof house, the road was plowed and salted earlier and in great shape.

There are black/bare places to put your tires all the way down, and temps today should get nicely above freezing. However, we have another NW flow clipper that might deposit a light layer overnight tonight and possibly again tomorrow night.  I'm not going to post the model pics as they are 0-1" and most of the snow should hold a few miles on either side of the NC/TN border.  If changes start showing up, I'll make another post.

Bottom line, just be very careful going up or down Apple Creek Road.  I'll be posting the annual meeting minutes later today, FYI.

SUNDAY UPDATE

The plow has been up and down Apple Creek Road. What salt was put down had not had time to work when I got to Apple Creek Road, shortly after the plowing. I imagine it's improving quickly by now.

Per side roads, all I know is that he attempted Staymon Road and didn't even make it to the Hughes' landing due to icy conditions.  Maybe they got to other side roads, I don't know. I walked down to the bottom of Staymon and drove my vehicle all the way to the end of Staymon on the first try, with no serious slipping, so it's negotiable with a good 4WD system and knowing where to make your tracks.

After a low of 16 for me this morning, the temperature is pushing above the freezing mark, though barely.  Tonight's lows will be well into freezing territory, nearing 20... refreeze will be widespread, with some black ice likely. Temps should warm up for us and help conditions Monday and part of Tuesday, but....

Another NWF (northwest flow) clipper system and colder air will pour in late Tuesday into Wednesday with the chance for more light snow (like last evening, ~1").  Hopefully there will be enough ground/road warmth to keep roads in passable shape.  I'll post an update if warranted closer to that time frame.

I will be posting the minutes from the annual meeting late today or tomorrow.  Just didn't want that post to get lost in the shuffle of road updates.  Stay tuned.


Bob

SATURDAY: CLEAN-UP TIME!

(UPDATES in red)  Well, well, well....the GFS and NAM models I post here were telling the snow story that forecasts didn't pick up on. My hunch was right, but the amounts went above and beyond. Click HERE for the latest NWS GSP snow reports page...some VERY impressive numbers.

When I hear of plowing information I'll post it here.  Refreshing this page will ensure you see it. Our regular plower had equipment issues and couldn't show up, but word is that another plower will be here first thing in the morning to begin clearing our roads. 

I drove out this afternoon.  No issues going down, though the usual steep, slick spots require close attention. Someone has plowed from Camry Lane down to the entrance, so that part is fine.  2WD cars will NOT be able to get up high and down.  Coming back in, it was very slippery in the wet snow that packed to a slushy ice layer, but I got to Staymon.  Staymon stopped me on the upper climb, so I threw in the towel.  Just too much wet snow and steepness.  The good news is I didn't have to call a tow truck to get me out of a ditch.  :-/

I picked up 11" here at the end of Staymon, with temps holding in the upper 20s until today, where it is getting above freezing (barely).  Tonight, low teens are in the forecast, so refreeze needs to be anticipated.  Tonight there is a clipper system (and again Monday night), but both are "northwest flow" events, which means hit and miss snow showers with very light accumulations for us as bands of snow pass over the Blue Ridge from the northwest. In looking at the radar at 530pm, there's a decent fetch of moisture back into TN and KY, where the snow bands are coming from.  The official forecast calls for around an inch in places like Max Patch on the TN border, and a dusting for ACA.  Given our plowing situation, what's another inch if we were to get it?

This snow system was very unusual in that all the moisture trained SW to NE behind a cold front...the front slowed to a crawl and the moisture kept feeding in over us for many hours.  Even Corpus Christi, TX got 6" of snow, the first snow for them since 2004.  Normally our snows aren't as long-lasting as this one.  You have to admit it's a gorgeous winter wonderland out there.

Be safe, y'all.


Bob

SNOW UPDATE (NEW POST)

We're under a Winter Storm Warning until 7am Saturday, with the NWS forecast of 4-6" and up to 8"+ above 5000'.

Too many changes to update last evening's post.  It appears both the NAM and GFS are on point for a bigger snow. Days ago, the heavier snow band was forecast near the I-85 corridor, but every model run has pushed it northwest towards us, and is now planted in the mountains.  Click on the pics to enlarge; ACA is in the red circle:

GFS THU 8pm run

NAM THU 8pm run

The GFS (which the past two seasons was more accurate) has us in the 8-10" category, but that would be the higher elevations. The NAM is back to 3-5" from 8-10" the prior run. I still see 6-8" as a reasonable possibility above 4500' though the going official total above the blue roof house (3500') is 4-6".  A lot of this is a bit reminiscent of the 18" snow back 9 or so years ago, where the two models went bonkers at the last minute and the local forecast was far under what we got. Let the flakes fall.

The moisture plume over us goes back to the southwest all the way to the Mexico border, and is impressive.  I woke up before 5am and the driveway was already white; Haywood County Schools are now closed.  This has evolved quickly into a bigger event with all the right elements coming  together, right on cue.

The snowfall will continue off and on through tonight, with a minor event Saturday night.  This started and will stay all snow as very cold air moves in for a few days.

I'll update any information as necessary.  I will be heading out in a few hours and (hopefully) heading back in. Time to give the new buggy and tires it's first snow adventure.  :-)