Too many changes to update last evening's post. It appears both the NAM and GFS are on point for a bigger snow. Days ago, the heavier snow band was forecast near the I-85 corridor, but every model run has pushed it northwest towards us, and is now planted in the mountains. Click on the pics to enlarge; ACA is in the red circle:
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| GFS THU 8pm run |
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| NAM THU 8pm run |
The GFS (which the past two seasons was more accurate) has us in the 8-10" category, but that would be the higher elevations. The NAM is back to 3-5" from 8-10" the prior run. I still see 6-8" as a reasonable possibility above 4500' though the going official total above the blue roof house (3500') is 4-6". A lot of this is a bit reminiscent of the 18" snow back 9 or so years ago, where the two models went bonkers at the last minute and the local forecast was far under what we got. Let the flakes fall.
The moisture plume over us goes back to the southwest all the way to the Mexico border, and is impressive. I woke up before 5am and the driveway was already white; Haywood County Schools are now closed. This has evolved quickly into a bigger event with all the right elements coming together, right on cue.
The snowfall will continue off and on through tonight, with a minor event Saturday night. This started and will stay all snow as very cold air moves in for a few days.
I'll update any information as necessary. I will be heading out in a few hours and (hopefully) heading back in. Time to give the new buggy and tires it's first snow adventure. :-)
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